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Leading Off:

WA-06: The dust is starting to settle from veteran Dem Rep. Norm Dicks' surprising retirement announcement on Friday morning, and the Great Mentioner has now kicked into full effect. The name seemingly at the top of everyone's mind is, as I predicted, state Sen. Derek Kilmer, designated the frontrunner by both Roll Call and local wags PubliCola. RC's Kyle Trygstad even got Kilmer on the record; he says he's "seriously considering."

Other Democratic names culled from these articles include Kilmer's fellow state Sens. Jim Hargrove and Christine Rolfes, Kitsap Co. Commissioner Josh Brown, state Rep. Kevin Van De Wege, and Tacoma mayor Marilyn Strickland. Indicative of the relative strengths of the benches in this light-blue, 57% Obama district: No Republican names seem to have surfaced, leaving IT consultant Jesse Young as the only GOPer on the table.

Senate:

ME-Sen, ME-02, ME-01: The Democratic side of the brand-new Maine Senate race already looks pretty set, even though neither of the big-name contenders, Rep. Chellie Pingree and ex-Gov. John Baldacci, have formally declared their intention to run. (Both are gathering signatures to get on the ballot, though.) The Republican field, though, has been in a state of flux, with a flurry of announcements late last week. Here's where things stand:

The biggest name, ex-Sen. and ex-SecDef William Cohen, confirmed he won't run, though he was probably always a pipe dream to begin with for the GOP. Neither will 2002 Gov. nominee and ex-Ambassador Peter Cianchette (who initially seemed the likeliest best, and who might have had Paul LePage's backing had he run), nor will former Susan Collins CoS and 2010 Gov. primary loser Steve Abbott. And finally, state Sen. president Kevin Raye will keep his bid in ME-02 against Mike Michaud going, rather than heading for the Senate race.

But four big-name Republicans did finally take out papers from the Secretary of State's office to begin the process of getting on the ballot: state AG Bill Schneider, SoS Charlie Summers, Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, and long-ago Maine Senate President Rick Bennett. Assistant State Senate Majority Leader Debra Plowman also says she's considering the race, since her previous plan of running in ME-02 is out (with Raye staying put). One other possible name, on the "fairly obscure but probably rich" side: Georgette Mosbacher, the former wife of Bush 41's Commerce Sec., Bob Mosbacher.

There's also the 600 lb. independent lurking in the corner: popular former Gov. Angus King, who said on Friday that he'd decide whether to run "in the next 48 hours" (according to the Lewiston Sun Journal). We've been running Twitter searches on King all weekend to stay on top of any potential announcement, but most of the tweets we've seen are Burger King-related. (I guess they have an angus burger on the menu.) In any event, a King entry would seriously up-end the race, but despite his self-imposed timetable, he actually has until June to make up his mind, thanks to Maine's generous ballot access deadlines for independents.

The musical chairs are also continuing downballot in ME-01, which Pingree is expected to vacate. State Senate Minority Leader Barry Hobbins has pulled papers to run in the Democratic primary, and Westbrook city councilor Brendan Rielly also says he'll make a bid. They join a large and growing field of hopefuls which, like everything else in Maine politics, keeps changing by the day. (David Jarman, James L & David Nir)

NE-Sen: Well, Bob Kerrey got quite the welcome to the Nebraska Senate race from the local Republicans, on just his third day in the race. The GOP is already talking about challenging Kerrey's residency, though it doesn't seem as though there's any hope they'll prevail legally; rather, it looks more like a ploy to keep Kerrey's long sojourn in New York City in the news. (Kerry's in the process of buying property in the state and initially listed his sister's residence when he changed his voter registration before switching to a friend's guest house... but there's no constitutional requirement that he live in Nebraska for any specific period of time before filing.)

And AG Jon Bruning, the likeliest GOP nominee, is already out with an attack ad, using the plainly obvious "New York liberal" line of attack. The buy is for $70K (which seems small, but goes a lot further in Nebraska than, well, in New York). You can watch it at the link or below:

NM-Sen: I can't imagine this would actually turn into an issue that would affect Heather Wilson's race for the Senate, but it is a definite "oops" for her campaign. In an attempt to prove how easy it is to commit the nebulous Republican bugaboo of voter fraud, the husband of one of her campaign staffers may be in serious legal trouble (like felony-level trouble) for going ahead and registering the family's dog to vote. (Irony alert: Recall that Wilson set off after Bush-era New Mexico US Attorney David Iglesias for being too lax on prosecuting alleged voter fraud cases.)

UT-Sen: I'm not sure too many Senate candidates would be enthused to have Mitt Romney cut a radio spot on their behalf, but Utah's a special case. Orrin Hatch is probably glad to have Romney record an ad for him, aimed at rousting Republicans for local caucuses. (Delegates for the state convention will be picked at the caucuses, and thanks to Utah's weird nominating process, Hatch's fate could be determined there before even facing GOP primary voters.)

Gubernatorial:

MD-Gov: Never too early to get a jump on the 2014 Governor's race in Maryland, which will be open after Martin O'Malley's second term ends. This hasn't been an even remotely hospitable state for Republicans in recent years, but "moderate" (or at least non-labor-hostile) Harford Co. Exec David Craig has started to lay public groundwork for a run in two years.

House:

IA-02: Rep. David Loebsack may be getting a credible primary challenge this year, seeing as state Sen. Joe Seng says he's "considering" a bid. While Seng sounds like he'd carve out a niche to Loebsack's right (he says he's a moderate "upset at the lack of bipartisan action" and is anti-abortion), it looks like Seng's real base that he'd rely on would be regional. He's from Davenport, and the Quad Cities are a recent addition to the 2nd (formerly in Bruce Braley's 1st district), so Loebsack is new to them too.

IN-05: It's hard to imagine a primary in the 5th without Dan Burton (and without a bunch of other clowns in the car), but that's what we've got. Now, though, the retiring Republican has given his blessing to one of his many would-be successors: Marion mayor Wayne Sebold. Ex-Rep. David McIntosh, ex-Marion Co. coroner (and narrow '10 primary loser) John McGoff, and former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks are the main GOP opposition.

NJ-10: 77-year old Democratic Rep. Donald Payne, who's held this Newark-area seat for decades, is reportedly "gravely ill," with reports that he has cancer and that his condition has "greatly deteriorated" in the last few days. We wish him and his family the best. (Payne had been planning on running for re-election, though he faces a likely primary challenge from Newark city councilor Ron Rice.)

NY-10: Lots of people have tried to dislodge Brooklyn's immovable object—long-time Rep. Ed Towns—and failed. But state Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries may have a better shot at winning the Dem primary than those who've come before him, as he's getting some key union backing, something which usually has gone to Towns before or else stayed on the sidelines. Friday he rolled out district-level backing from the Communication Workers of America; he's already scored UFCW and Machinists support as well.

NY-25: It's not every day when you see a local GOP county chair advise the local U.S. Rep. that maybe she should find a different district to run in, but that's what Onondoga Co. party chair Tom Dadey has suggested to freshman Ann Marie Buerkle. Buerkle was going to have a very hard time winning even under the old lines—it's a Dem-leaning district, and ex-Rep. Dan Maffei, whom Buerkle barely defeated with 2010's wave in full effect, is seeking a rematch. What's more, both of the dueling plans submitted to the court in redistricting litigation by Republicans and Democrats in the state legislature would make her district even more Democratic (though as we've noted, these proposals have no legal force).

In any event, Dadey is suggesting Buerkle move over to the Dem Bill Owens's 23rd, where nobody would know her (maybe a good thing, considering how out of step she is with the district; she's by far the most conservative member of New York's delegation). The only advantage there is that the 23rd is a few points less Democratic, though 2010 nominee Matt Doheny has been running an aggressive campaign and has raised a lot, so he likely wouldn't want to step aside. (For what it's worth, Buerkle is already haranguing the court that will be charged with the final redistricting decision, saying the legislature-proposed maps are politically motivated. What maps aren't?)

NY-26: Remember David Bellavia, the tea-partier and co-founder of astroturfers Vets for Freedom, who tried to get picked for the GOP nomination in the NY-26 special election... then considered an independent run after he wasn't picked, and finally threw his backing behind Crazy Jack Davis's own indie run that helped get Dem Kathy Hochul elected in this red-leaning district? Well, maybe he's sensing that the tea party's moment has passed, because now Bellavia's decided to ingratiate himself with the GOP again, saying he's "strongly leaning" toward a run in the Republican primary. Local officials sound pretty skeptical, as the Orleans Co. chair says (with some understatement) that Bellavia "burned some bridges" with the party.

PA-12: Not a surprise, since he's from Johnstown and has deep roots at that end of the district: Mark Critz got the unanimous endorsement of the Cambria Co. Dems over Jason Altmire in their member-on-member redistricting-forced primary. (Correspondingly, Altmire has been getting all the endorsements in the western half of the district, his old turf.)

RI-01: Cumberland mayor Dan McKee had been a rumored primary challenger to Democratic Rep. David Cicilline, who finds himself vulnerable, at least on paper, both in a primary and the general despite the 1st District's very blue hue. (That's thanks to stories of Cicilline's alleged financial mismanagement as Providence mayor, which mostly emerged after the 2010 election.) McKee ruled out a bid on Friday, though, leaving conservaDem businessman Anthony Gemma the only major Democrat who still seems to be gearing up for a bid against Cicilline.

TX-23: Democratic state Rep. Pete Gallego staked out his ground in the 23rd, rolling out a list of 140 endorsements, including former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros and a variety of state legislators. That's important because he's our best shot to take out GOP freshman Rep. Quico Canseco in what's really the only swing district left in Texas in the wake of the new court-drawn interim map. Gallego still faces lawyer John Bustamante (son of long-ago ex-Rep. Albert Bustamante) in the primary, this show of force was mostly oriented toward someone else: Dem ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, who lost the 23rd in 2010 and is looking for someplace to run. (Ciro could seek out the open 20th, though state Sen. Joaquin Castro has laid a claim to that seat, or possibly the Austin-dominated 35th, but Rep. Lloyd Doggett seems poised to run there.)

Other Races:

MD-Init: Maryland, as you probably know, became the eighth state in the nation to legalize gay marriage, with Gov. Martin O'Malley signing the legislation on Thursday. Much like Washington—which also enacted marriage equality through legislative action earlier this year—it looks like there will also be a "people's veto" referendum putting the matter on the November ballot, as opponents are organizing a signature drive to do just that.

Grab Bag:

AL & MS Fundraising: Congressional primaries are happening in Alabama and Mississippi on March 13, so Thursday night was the deadline for filing of pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC, covering the period between Jan. 1 and Feb. 22:

• AL-05 (R): Parker Griffith Can Lose! (...but he'll raise a good amount of scratch doing it!) Griffith outraised the man who defeated him two years ago, incumbent Mo Brooks, $175K to $128K. Brooks has a solid cash-on-hand advantage though, $392K to $27K. Perhaps this is what Griffith gets for entering the race so late. Or just for sucking.

• AL-06 (R): Insider-trading posterboy Spencer Bachus is being challenged by state Sen. Scott Beason, who, like Griffith, also joined the party late. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Bachus has a massive fundraising advantage here, having raised $303K to Beason's $54K. Bachus' CoH advantage is even greater, $646K to $17K.

• MS-02 (D): Former Greenville mayor Heather McTeer is challenging incumbent Bennie Thompson, but her FEC filings wouldn't have you know that—at least, as of Thursday, when reports were due. McTeer filed two days late, which isn't exactly the sign of a well-organized campaign. Another sign of weakness: she raised just $8K. Thompson only raised $48K, but he has a massive, almost comical cash edge: $1.6 mil to $33K.

(jeffmd & David Nir)

North Carolina: I seriously have no idea who most of these people are, but if you have the patience, PPP has GOP primary numbers for the many, many statewide offices that are up for grabs in November. (In case you're wondering about the higher-profile stuff, at the presidential level, it's Rick Santorum 31, Mitt Romney 25, and Newt Gingrich 23, while Pat McCrory is at 57% in the NC-Gov primary vs. a bunch of no-names, none of whom top 3%.)

Polltopia: You might see less polling of New Hampshire in this cycle, thanks to the chilling effect of a new enforcement action by the state's Attorney General, intended to limit the use of true "push polling" but throwing such a wide net that it could snare any poll that includes information about a candidate's "character, status, or political stance or record." Republican pollster OnMessage has already settled with the state for alleged violations, and the American Association of Political Consultants is warning its other members about polling the Granite State.

WATN?: A lot of people have been eager for Steve Novick to run for something again, and now it looks like he finally will: Portland city council. (Novick, if you've forgotten, was the 2008 Democratic Senate opponent to Jeff Merkley, in one of those rarest of beasts: a mostly-positive battle between two solid progressives and all-around good guys.)

Wisconsin: PPP is out with its usual grab bag of state lege numbers, approvals, and sports miscellany, this time for the Badger State. Voters would prefer a return to a Dem-controlled state Senate by a 48-41 margin, which bodes well for the upcoming second wave of recalls. Herb Kohl leaves office very popular at 54/28, while Ron Johnson remains a cipher, 36/35.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ooooooooo! (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.shelterboxusa.org/

    by TexMex on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:42:05 AM PST

  •  Kerrey is still a huge underdog (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, Setsuna Mudo, LordMike, bear83

    But he isn't DOA like the other options would be. But this line of attack has easily been anticipated.

    •  As usual, I wonder how effective it might be. (3+ / 0-)

      As I have said, I know nothing about Nebraska culture, but I assume the people it would be most effective with are not natural Kerrey voters. He comes in with the advantage of not being a recent transplant but someone who, despite living in a different and "questionable" part of the country, has a deep history with the state.

      Also, after a while, what is the point of their attack going to be? It's easy for him to say, no matter what he's campaigning on at the time, "I'm not a liberal Democrat. I'm conservative at heart. They didn't like me all that much in New York because of this. Mr. Bruning can try to draw attention away from the fact he wants to gut Medicare and slash taxes on the rich while the middle class suffers, but he can't avoid talking about it for long. In his heart, he knows his policies are wrong for Nebraska..."

  •  WI-Gov: Falk makes her case for Governor. (6+ / 0-)
    I tell her that I hear from a lot of progressives who worry she can’t win against Walker.

    She says that’s a Dane County phenomenon. “It doesn’t seem to bother anyone else,” she says. “People in Ashland, people in Milwaukee, don’t say it.”

    And to those who think a Democrat from outside of Dane County would do better, she responds: “Russ Feingold won three times from Dane County. Jim Doyle won five times from Dane County. This state elects people from Dane County.”

    For those who prefer Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, she points out that he hasn’t declared his candidacy yet, and that she got 50,000 more votes than he did when she was running for attorney general and he was running against Walker last time.

    She is quick to note that she and Barrett are friends. “My husband stoop up in Tom’s wedding,” she adds. “And I did more than any other elected official to work for Tom.”

    She also believes she can win over some of those who say they support Walker right now.

    She intends to do so in three ways, she says.

    First, “show competence.” Here, she says she’ll rely on her record as Dane County executive.

    Second, she believes her style will be an asset. “I bring people together,” she says. “And I negotiate when it’s needed.” She says she was able to find common ground with Republican sheriffs and some conservatives on the county board.

    Third, she says she’ll point out Walker’s record of six consecutive months of joblessness and the fact that “he’s turned the state upside down.”

    http://progressive.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 05:58:31 AM PST

  •  I LOVE this daily edition (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83

    Where in the heck to you folks that put Elections Morning Digest on get all that info.  Gotta take HOURS AND HOURS.  Kudos, guys.

    Interesting in North Carolina with the repub McCrory having such an edge on any of the dem wannabes for governor.  That's a swing state and it's like REALLY important that Obama get a leg up there.  So, hopefully the North Carolinian dems can get their shit together.

    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:00:06 AM PST

  •  WA-06 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, Setsuna Mudo

    While I may not agree with him on anything, Kilmer certainly has an impressive pedigree.

    Here's the description of his education from the Washington Senate Democrats site.

    BA in Public Affairs, Princeton University; Certificate in American Studies, Princeton University; PhD in Comparative Social Policy focused on economic development from University of Oxford
    He's young and he sounds like a guy with potential for an impressive House career for the Democrats. Y'all would be smart to pick him as your nominee for WA-06.

    18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite. “Freedom granted only when it is known beforehand that its effects will be beneficial is not freedom.”- F.A. Hayek

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:05:55 AM PST

  •  54% of voters do not care (5+ / 0-)

    where a candidate stands on Marriage Equality. It is now supported by 49% of voters, according to a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:07:38 AM PST

    •  Yup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, redrelic17

      and in fact in that poll more people say support for gay marriage makes them more likely to vote for a candidate (25%, vs. 20% less likely).

      Also, the Charlotte Observer has endorsed No on Amendment One (anti-gay amendment).

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:13:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Although I expected opinion to move our way (9+ / 0-)

      I've been shocked at how rapid the move has been. The movement has been far to rapid to be explained by demographic/generational factors and can only be explained by large numbers of voters changing their opinion in favor of marriage equality. I think we're increasingly moving to the point where only staunch social conservatives are opposed and the moderate middle at least softly supports and sees opposition as mean spirited.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:21:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think that's right (4+ / 0-)

        It's one of those issues where moderates may not care to push for equality, but they see as mean-spirited those who want to complain about its being extended.

      •  I also wonder how much of it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rosarugosa

        is due to the recession. It's taken a toll on everyone to some degree, but those outside the top far more than those at the top have seen their security threatened. If you are someone who is worried about keeping his family's head above water, let alone if you are someone who has struggled for months on end to find a job, which party seems more in touch with reality? Is it the one railing on about two guys, one of whom may be your friendly neighbor or your cousin, getting married, as if that was the big issue, or it the one talking about how the number of kids in your daughter's third-grade class has shot up to 33 and how your health insurance premiums have gone up by 25 percent?

      •  Visited My Rural Hometown Bars This Weekend..... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, James Allen

        ....and ran into a bunch of old classmates I hadn't seen in 15 years.  I remember the down-the-line homophobia when I was in high school to the point of it being unthinkable that anyone who was gay would come out of the closet at the time.  At some point, it came up of a few former classmates who had since come out of the closet...and all these small-town farm boys I grew up with were now professing their indifference about others' sexual preference.  Gay marriage didn't specifically come up, but it's hard to imagine based on their comments that they'd have a problem with it.  Attitudes really have changed even in the backwaters....and far more quickly than I would have expected as well.

  •  MO-01 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, Setsuna Mudo

    Claire McCaskill trying to mediate between Clay and Carnahan: http://www.stltoday.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:22:12 AM PST

  •  Eric Cantor endorses Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    http://midwestdemocracy.com/...

    Huh, I didn't realize he hadn't endorsed him already.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:24:10 AM PST

  •  IL-02 blech (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    Nancy Pelosi endorses JJJ over Debbie Halvorson.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:25:31 AM PST

  •  WATN (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, Setsuna Mudo, redrelic17

    Patrick Kennedy has moved from the district where I grew up to the district where my mom (and his wife) grew up, and is now a mental health activist. http://www.sjmagazine.net/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:36:26 AM PST

  •  Brown is still leading in Massachusetts (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000

    Can anyone comment on this poll?  It looks like Warren isn't polling well with independents or, surprisingly, women.  This is starting to get worrisome.

    Thanks.

    http://www.masslive.com/...

    •  The crosstabs are screwy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, ndrwmls10, Setsuna Mudo

      and the poll was conducted over the span of a week. I'm not denying the possibility that Warren is down but I really think the past few polls that have come out are exaggerating it. You're in Massachusetts, are there any campaign developments that have taken place that would explain a large movement from Warren to Brown?

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 06:44:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not a large movement per se (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, Marcus Graly, LordMike

        considering that WNEU's most recent poll (from last October) had Brown up 47-42. The trendline isn't favorable, but the change of only +2/-1 suggests that this poll at least can't be taken to show 'large movement.' Maybe just a decline from a post-announcement bounce. Granted, in combination with other polls it might seem otherwise, but as has been pointed out those surveys are hardly perfect.
         

      •  There's a bit of cognitive dissonance as well. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, rdw72777

        Most seem to ignore that there was a poll out last week that had Warren up 3 points. It could have been an outlier, but that would point to a tie, not a blow out like the other polls would like to show.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:16:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Nope. The general sense, though (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Is that Brown is going a good enough job that he shouldn't be voted out.  People also feel that Warren doesn't know much about the state beyond 128 and the Boston area.  Beyond that, I have no idea.

        •  That may be so (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          but I'm just trying to figure out what has changed between now and several months ago when Warren consistently had momentum in the polls.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:41:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No real data, but a few speculations (0+ / 0-)

            1.  Brown is widely seen as a typical New England Republican:  moderate on many issues, willing to work with Democrats, and generally not playing the religion card.  That he's voted with the Republicans most of the time doesn't matter:  the times he hasn't have been well publicized, giving him the appearance of being more liberal to many people than he already is.

            2.  As I've said repeatedly, Massachusetts has some very red areas, especially in the central part of the state.  The people there think Brown is the greatest thing since sliced bread, and they can't wait for a Republican to take Barney Frank's seat (which may well happen if the Democrats take the Kennedy name for granted).

            3.  Brown is no fool when it comes walking the line between pleasing his party and his constituents; right after the vote on the Blunt Amendment he tweeted that he found Rush Limbaugh's attack on Sandra Fluke "reprehensible."  He satisfied the Republican base and the majority of people in the Commonwealth, and since the Blunt Amendment vote had already taken place, it cost him nothing.

            4.  I know you don't want to hear this, but Warren's campaign was slow to put up her positions on non-financial issues on her web site, slow to announce campaign appearances, and less than responsive to questions.  I thought it was just me, but I've seen several other Kossacks complaining about this, so it's clearly a problem that needs to be addressed.

            5.  Warren is fabulous in person, but I haven't heard any ads yet.  And I still haven't heard a concrete idea for revitalizing places like the North Quabbin, Springfield, or Fall River.

            Just my opinions, and I very likely could be wrong.  But this is what's floating in the wind.

        •  if thats true my (0+ / 0-)

          respect for the people of Massachusetts would take a big hit.  I mean, I'm one the west coast, and my favorite members of our House delegation are from Connecticut and Massachusetts.  Who cares if someone is a relative newcomer to the area, so long as on the issues they would represent the people well?  Brown is a douche and a hack.  There's no way in the second bluest state in the country a piece of crap like him should be re-elected in a presidential year.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:48:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Massachusetts is much more complex (0+ / 0-)

            Than you might think.  Just because the state voted for McGovern in 1972 and kept sending Ted Kennedy to Congress does NOT mean that the average Baystater is a progressive or a liberal.  

            •  true (0+ / 0-)

              but the average Baystater is certainly closer no conservative.

              19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

              by jncca on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:14:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  depends on the area (0+ / 0-)

                If you went out to Worcester or to the Blackstone Valley area, south of Boston, and parts of Franklin County, then you most certainly would be more likely to encounter a conservative than a liberal.  Just because Boston and the Pioneer Valley are blue doesn't mean that the whole state is.

            •  No, but they're a Democrat. (0+ / 0-)

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:38:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  I believe that Ms Warren's (0+ / 0-)

      poll numbers are down due to the perception that she is a one issue candidate. It seems to me that she limits her campaigning to calling out Wall St and the Banks. I don't know her positions on energy, foreign policy, our endless wars, social security, i.e.

      •  This is what I'm talking about. (4+ / 0-)

        Democrats are the ultimate self defeatist, who can't even look two steps ahead. Might I mention the last month Warren has been talking about the Blunt amendment and woman's issues, but why wouldn't Wall St. and the economy be her main message? That's what people want to here about. It is also very easy to search on Google for her positions, she's not shy about any of them.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:32:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  So what you're saying is (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ndrwmls10, Setsuna Mudo, sapelcovits

          She's a DINO and supports the Blunt amendment?

          LOL, I'm kidding.  You're 10,000% correct, except for your use of here instead of hear.

          If we didn't have something to wring hands over, we wouldn't be Democrats.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:37:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I suspect Boston Jag was just noting what he sees (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, Setsuna Mudo, Boston Jag

          in his local media.

          If Warren isn't running ads, if local news isn't describing her positions on other issues, then people don't know about it.

          Even for those people who spend hours and hours online, I think only a small percentage actually search for Warren's positions, especially this far away from election day.

          I don't see any "defeatist" notions in his comment.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:41:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  She did finally post her positions on her web site (0+ / 0-)

          However, I do agree that she needs to be more than a one-note candidate.  Right now that's all people really know about her, and it's not helping much.

    •  She can easily lose Independents and still win. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      The thing is, she just can't lose them that badly. As far as I know, there were no exit polls from the special election, but it makes sense to assume Coakley lost Independents by about 30 points. Depending on how well she does with Democrats, Warren doesn't need to really do all that much better, as it happens.

      Think I am kidding? Assume a 40/20/40 partisan spilt, which is probably way too favorable to Republicans. If Warren gets 83 percent of Democrats, three percent of Republicans, and 41 percent of Independents, she wins with 50.20 percent. Notice how she doesn't even cross 45 percent with Indies. Needless to say, she if merely ties Brown with that group, she wins easily.

      You could also argue that my example understates how many Democratic votes she might get. Brown might not be Jim DeMint, but I think it's safe to say he isn't helping himself with his most recent votes. Didn't he vote for the original Ryan plan, or at least voice support for it in some way? That's the sort of thing that would probably cause any doubts among older, more conservative Democrats to go away and cause them to side with Warren over Brown.

      My guess? Assuming it's not a horrendous year, the partisan split might be 42/18/40. If Warren gets 85 percent of Democrats, three percent of Republicans, and merely 40 percent of Independents, she wins with 52.3 percent. And to illustrate with what I said above, if she sees the same results with Democrats and Republicans but splits Indies with Brown, she win with 56.3 percent.

      She might be down now, although it's not clear to me how legitimate recent polling is, but given the state in which she is running, the apparent determination of Republicans to make the electorate hate them, and her personal strengths, I can't help but think this is still her race to lose.

      357 160

      •  Apparently; edditting iz 4 chumpssz today! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, Mark27
      •  Uh, not really (0+ / 0-)

        She's handily winning Democrats and handily losing Republicans, neither of which is a surprise.  But there are enough Independents in this state that she really can't take them for granted or let Brown continue to lead.  

        •  Yes, really. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          I think I showed above that she can lose Independents by a significant margin and still win. (Losing them by 20 points, for instance, qualifies as "significant" to me.) This isn't to say she can take them for granted; she definitely can't. I'm simply trying to show that Brown can still win them and still lose, so if we see him leading with this group, we shouldn't freak out. She just needs to keep it kind of close and she will be fine.

      •  And oh, as for Brown's recent votes? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        The Catholic church has been getting a lot of traction with the "it's about religious freedom" nonsense.  Add in that Brown was just about the only Republican of any prominence to call out Rush Limbaugh last week, and once again the perception is that Brown is a good guy who's a moderate, unlike the radical liberal Cambridge dweller in her million dollar house.

        I know better, of course, but the average voter doesn't.  Warren needs to start buying radio time pretty soon, especially in the central part of the state.  

        •  It's not clear to me how this is playing (0+ / 0-)

          in Massachusetts. What polling have you seen?

          Also, I'd much rather her go and meet people directly. She can support her appearances with radio advertising, but now is the time to go and speak directly to voters. If she comes across as well in person as she does on television, it'll be invaluable to her.

        •  Don't you find those poll's geographical (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          crosstabs weird? It had Warren up only 46-44 in Western Mass and down only 46-40 in Central Mass. Those gaps should both be bigger.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:43:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm hardly an expert on Massachusetts politics, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ellid

      but I get the feeling that Warren may be turning off a lot of voters because of the perception that she's a carpetbagger.  Massachusetts- like the rest of New England as a whole- tends to be pretty damn parochial, and voters there may be turned off by the idea that the Democrats are bringing in an outsider (despite the fact that she's lived there for a good number of years now) to defeat one of their native sons.  This perception is only helped by the fact that most of Warren's funding seems to be coming from Hollywood celebrities and outside Democratic PACs.

      •  I have a lot of trouble believing that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        I bet the vast majority of MA voters have no idea that she's from Oklahoma originally.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:18:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Look at her favorables in this latest poll (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          37-20.

          So almost half aren't able to offer an opinion! The freak out over this is getting silly.

          Obama leads 60-36 in the same poll. Patience.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:59:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Unfortunately, RBloodworth is right (0+ / 0-)

          The Republicans are hitting her very hard on the carpetbagger business.  Add in that she lives in an expensive and not particularly average area, and that she's an academic, and she's vulnerable.  

          •  Since when have they been mentioning that? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            they weren't bringing up the Oklahoma thing when I was home. Just talking about "Professor Warren."

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 12:51:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Check the message boards on the newspapers (0+ / 0-)

              Yes, some of the Republicans posting are paid interns - there's one from Staten Island who posts under "WallStFella" who's particularly obnoxious.  But I know that my hometown paper, the Springfield Republican, has a LOT of locals who are convinced that Warren is a socialist from Oklahoma who doesn't know diddly squat about anything but Harvard Yard.  

              •  I never read comments on online newspapers (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, tietack

                that's a terribly unscientific way to gauge public opinion.

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 01:37:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  It's also the sort of chatter I hear around town (0+ / 0-)

                  And I live one town over from Northampton.  It's why I'm surprised but not shocked by these poll numbers, and it confirms my suspicions that outside the activist bubble, Warren is neither as popular nor as familiar as we'd like to think.  

                  •  Meh (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, tietack

                    if I were to go by the comments on the ProJo or the constituent feedback I received while interning for Senator Whitehouse, I'd think that Rhode Island is as red as Wyoming. That stuff just isn't enough to worry me.

                    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 02:54:33 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  A lot of Rhode Island *is* pretty red (0+ / 0-)

                      That's why they're the lone hold out against same-sex marriage in New England.  

                      I hope you're right, but I'm not going to bet against Brown quite yet.  Way too early.

                      •  Not really (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        KingofSpades, tietack

                        the reason we're the lone hold out (I assume you're including Maine even though they overturned the law there) is because of our conservadem leaders in the Senate, Senate President M. Teresa Paiva-Weed and Majority Leader Domenick Ruggerio. They've been blocking gay marriage even though some polls show support as high as 60%. Perfect example of politicians who are out of touch with the people.

                        And no, I wouldn't bet against Brown either per se. I consider this a tossup for now.

                        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                        by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 03:52:03 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

  •  Why is CA-04 not competitive (0+ / 0-)

    The article below should make Tom McClin*ock worried:

    http://www.mercurynews.com/...

    I however don't like the Democratic Candidate, either, he's only a "moderate".

    People in that district really not vote for their best interests.

    I wonder if Tom McClin*ock will condemn The Pig Man, for Sandra Fluke, but I don't think Tom McClin*ock is man enough.

    •  The new CA-04 voted 54% for McCain (4+ / 0-)

      WTH is wrong with a moderate running in such a district?! How do you know that it's against their best interests?

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:08:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Regarding your comments (0+ / 0-)

        "Against their best interests": I hope you read the article, in regards to what cancervative, and The Pig Man endorsed Tom McClin*ock.

        Why would people there vote for Tom McClin*ock, especially if Tom McClin*ock's district is mostly about tourism, and snow, and to "pray" for snow???

        I think Tom McClin*ock, like most of the rest of the repubic party, are climate change deniers.

        If the cancervative principals could work, then Tom McClin*ock's district would be a good spot for California, but in the Mercury News article, it looks like it is not.

        The "moderate": http://auburnjournal.com/...

        It is sad that an "Alan Grayson" democrat has NO CHANCE to win CA-04, instead, the California Democratic Party endorsed a "moderate".

        •  You really think voters will blame McClintock for (0+ / 0-)

          the weather?!

          I read the article and chose to leave it out of my comment before, as I find it hard to believe that anyone would find your premise to be credible.

          And now you're suggesting that Tahoe will get snow only if they vote for someone like Alan Grayson?

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:55:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, an Alan Grayson candidate (0+ / 0-)

            No, an Alan Grayson candidate, will not get snow, but to pray for snow is ridiculous.

            That is like Gov. Sonny Perdue praying for rain (which slightly happened).

            I was hoping that voters will blame Tom McClin*ock for their local economy, and how poor it is, as the article states, but how likely will that happen?

            Instead, I think the typical CA-04 voter will blame Gov. Jerry Brown.

    •  A Grayson candidate would get four votes (0+ / 0-)

      in this district.  Maybe five.

      Even a moderate candidate here can't beat McClintock because the majority of the voters support his views on the issues.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 11:43:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NBC/WSJ poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Anyone have a PDF of it they can put on scribd?  WSJ is blocking access to the article without registering.

  •  Warren (4+ / 0-)

    I live on the Cape and I dont see why her numbers arent better. In fact all of the events I have been to out here have been wild and enthusiastic with overflow crowds. The Cape is very conservative, overall, but the enthusiasm for Warren so far is high and Dems here are engaged and are working hard, so...not sure how to explain all these recent polls.

    •  It's because like it or not (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, jncca, dc1000, Ellid

      Senator Brown is popular. For better or worse, people genuinely think that he is an "independent" or "maverick" Senator in spite of the fact that he votes with Republicans the vast majority of the time. In politics as in life, reality doesn't matter, perception does. The problem is that people want bipartisanship in Congress. What they don't get is that it simply isn't realistic in this political climate. You would have thought that after McCain's defeat in 2008 that people wouldn't buy into the "maverick" argument...but you'd be wrong.

  •  NY-23/NY AD-114 (6+ / 0-)

    So for those of you who enjoyed much of the NY-23 Congressional elections the last 2 terms, we might be out of luck of such enjoyment 2 3rd time around.

    Due to Teresa Seward's retirement in AD-114, it looks like there's a chance Doug Hoffman could run for Assembly instead of splitting the "non-Bill Owens" vote in NY-23.  Also, there's a chance that Tom Scozzafava, brother of Dede, could run in this AD too.

    No rumors if this (not that) Scozzafava will drop out of the race before election day and endorse the Democrat :-)

    http://poststar.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:30:40 AM PST

  •  MD-06: Clinton has endorsed Delaney. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 07:48:06 AM PST

  •  MI-3 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, bumiputera, sacman701
    Steve Pestka, surveyed the political landscape – redrawn Congressional lines that lean Democratic and an incumbent’s record that some contend is heavy on personal ideology – and decided the timing was right.

    Pestka, a former Kent County prosecutor, judge, state representative and businessman, today announced his bid to unseat first-term U.S. Rep. Justin Amash.

    http://www.mlive.com/...

    The other Democrat who is running, Trevor Thomas, received endorsements from Jennifer Granholm and John Cherry.

    On the day Trevor Thomas is likely to learn that he will face a primary opponent in an attempt to knock off U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, the first-time political candidate announced he earned the endorsements of Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Lt. Gov. John Cherry.
    http://www.mlive.com/...
  •  NH-01: Libertarian Seabrook Selectman Brendan (4+ / 0-)

    Kelly running for Congress on the Libertarian line.

    Last year Kelly ran for a seat in the New Hampshire House. He lost his bid, but took 17 percent of the votes in a three-person race.
    Kelly said he plans to build a coalition of conservatives, including supporters of Ron Paul and the First, Second and Tenth Amendments of the Constitution.
    http://www.newburyportnews.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:02:54 AM PST

  •  Romney "not a favorite son" in Massachusetts (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

    http://news.yahoo.com/...

    Next to the register at Asai, an Asian restaurant here, hangs a photograph of Mitt Romney, his arm slung awkwardly around the husband-and-wife owners. It's intended to convey a neighborly familiarity. Romney lived in this comfortable inner-ring Boston suburb for more than 30 years, and he and his wife still own a condo here. But the former governor doesn't exactly appear to be a regular: None of the staff could remember seeing him come in. "I met his son once," the hostess offered.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:04:39 AM PST

    •  Wow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      Massachusetts not excited about a Republican.  This is news to Yahoo?

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:06:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's kind of a fair point. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, redrelic17, itskevin

        I think the better thing to focus on, at least from our end, is how (a) he used to bash the state regularly in 2008 (and perhaps leading up to 2012, although I am not sure) and (b) how his campaign acknowledged in 2008 that they wouldn't try to compete there, something which I am sure still applies. Specifically, could he even hope to cross 45 percent, in a great year for Republicans? Federal and state differences aside, what does that say about him?

        •  In a state like MA (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          A Republican's totals tell us nothing.  Former governor or current leper, there are just too many people who vote generic Dem.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:14:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree, which is why it's not fair (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            to expect him to win the state. At the same time, though, it's not at all clear he will do that much better than McCain, despite being elected there in the past. That has to say something.

            •  Does it? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo

              The state likes to vote Democratic for President.  It doesn't matter who the candidates are really.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:25:24 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Again, I agree. But you'd think (0+ / 0-)

                he'd at least get closer, based on, you know, the fact that they elected him governor. Of course, he's not popular now, and he wasn't when he left. I wonder why that is...

                •  Have they like any former Guvs since Weld? (0+ / 0-)

                  And even he couldn't beat Kerry.  I can't imagine being Guv of MA is a popular position, even when you win.  Once in office, you are the face of high taxes no matter what, and even if you lowered them a little they're still too damn high in everyone's eyes.  

                  I'm not sure who would be a really popular governor of MA today.  I'd think Kerry's approvals would go down if he were elected governor too.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:43:19 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  They have Scott Brown in the Senate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, Ellid

        and EVERY Governor of the Bay State between 1991 and 2007 was a Republican. It's not like they've never elected a Republican before.

        •  Yup (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, Setsuna Mudo

          Governor is different from Senator.

          Weld was pretty dang popular sitting Governor in 1996 and still lost to John Kerry by around 200K votes.  He won in 1994 election as governor by what, like a 900K votes.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 08:21:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's still kind of embarrassing for Romney (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, Setsuna Mudo

            No, he shouldnt be expected to win MA. But that really is his home state. He served as a governor there. You'd think if he was a very popular gov, like Weld, he would probably make the race more competitive than it typically is.

            I think it's still a clever talking point for OFA to say, "the people of MA know Romney the best, know his leadership, and look at how we are doing in that state."

  •  Derek Kilmer IS running in WA-06!! (3+ / 0-)

    I was thrilled and excited to find his announcement in my email inbox, less than an hour ago.  To be honest, I thought he might decline because of the disruptive effect it could have on his two young (cute-as-buttons) daughters.

    I'm not in that district, but I'll be strongly supporting his candidacy, with my money and my time.  I've known Derek for more than 10 years, and I know he'll be a great Congressman.

    That he was born and raised in the district, and that he returned to it from Seattle a few years before he first ran for office in LD-26, will resonate strongly.  Probably a good bit more than his Princeton degree and his Oxford PhD.

    Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. -- K.Marx A.Lincoln

    by N in Seattle on Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 09:36:24 AM PST

  •  I am worried about Warren (0+ / 0-)

    I know that when she announced she would get a bounce. But to drop the way she has in three polls, and one poll, which may be an outlier only three points up, within MOE. I know she is up against a lot of money, but something was exciting voters when she announced. There is clearly a hunger to get rid of Brown, but she seems to be unable to tap in to that so far. I wonder if there is something about her that is turning people off. I only hope we don't have another Coakley on our hands.

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