So unlike most in the pundit class, I go into the Weeds and make a call for every delegate, and also in every delegate awarding contest available. At the end of the day, I believe that a combination of Gingrich and Santorum will edge Mitt Romney by 7 delegates. I could easily Romney winning by an upper limit of about 30. While the press will be obsessed with the popular vote in Ohio, the winner is likely to only net 1 additional delegate. There are lots of other ways for candidates to win or not win delegates, which might very well be worth more than 1 delegate. No risk , no reward, so here it is.
Totals
Romney 187
Santorum 122
Gingrich 72
Paul 25
Massachusetts [38]
Romney 26
Santorum 11
Paul 1
Romney Wins 8 of 11 At Large Delegates gets first place and 2 delegates in all 9 Mass Districts.
Santorum Wins 3 of 11 At Large Delegates and second place and 1 delegate in Mass 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9
Paul Gets 2nd place and 1 delegate in Mass 8
Vermont [14]
Romney 10
Santorum 2
Paul 2
Romney wins the 3 winner take all CD delegates and 7 of 11 at large delegates.
Santorum gets to 20% and wins 2 of 11 at large delegates
Paul gets to 20% and take 2 at large delegates.
Idaho [29]
Romney 15
Paul 7
Santorum 7
Romney gets a little over 50%, Paul and Santorum gets 25% for this proportional allocation.
Virginia [46]
Romney 46
Romney wins everything gets Paul easily.
Georgia [73]
Gingrich 44
Santorum 15
Romney 14
Gingrich wins 16 of 31 at large delegates, and 2 for all 14 Congressional district,
Romney wins 8 of 31 at large delegates and 1 delegate in Georgia’s 4th,5th, 6th 7th 11th 13th districts
Santorum wins 7 of 31 at large delegates and 1 delegate in Georgia 1st, 2nd,3rd,8th, 9th, 10th, 12th 14th districts
Tennessee [55]
Santorum 26
Romney 22
Gingrich 7
Santorum wins 11 out of 28 at large delegates and 2 a piece in the 1st,2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th Districts and 1 a piece in 5th,6th, 9th. Districts
Romney wins 11 out of 28 at large delegates, 2 a piece in the 5th, 7th, 9th and 1 a piece in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8t.h.
Gingrich wins 6 out of 28 at large delegates, a 1 in the 1st.
Ohio [63]
Santorum 31
Romney 26
Gingrich 6
Santorum wins 7 out of 15 at large delegates and 3 a piece in the 1st, 2nd,4th, 5th, 7th ,8th, 10th 16th
Romney wins 8 out of 15 delegates and 3 a piece in the 3rd,9th,11th, 12th, 14th,15th
Gingrich wins 3 a piece in the 6th, 13th
Oklahoma [40]
Santorum 15
Romney 14
Gingrich 11
Santorum wins 10 of 25 at large Delegate and 1 in every CD.
Romney wins 9 of 25 at large delegates and 1 in every CD
Gingrich wins 6 of 25 at large
North Dakota
Santorum 8
Paul 8
Romney 7
Gingrich 2
Straight proportional.
Alaska
Paul 8
Santorum 7
Romney 7
Gingrich 2
Straight proportional.