Free Syrian Army unit in the Baba Amr neighborhood were cut off, surrounded, and destroyed by Assad's forces over the weekend. The Red Cross is not being allowed into Baba Amr. Assad's regime is citing road repairs as the reason that the Red Cross isn't being allowed into the district.
Unless the Regime is changing tactics and deciding not to murder anyone suspected of working with anti-Assad forces, it's safe to assume that what's going on in Baba Amr is yet another massacre.
The strategy that the Assad Regime is using is now clear.
On February 27th, Assad forces entered the Insha'at neighborhood, while shelling Baba Amr. This cut Baba Amr off from the rest of the FSA in central Homs. In the next few days, Assad forces surrounded Baba Amr, and began slowly pressing in. They'd used a similar tactic previously on a hospital district fortified by the FSA in the northwest of the city.
Click on these maps for a larger image opened in a new window. I didn't make these, but I checked the info and they match the news reports fairly well.
The maps below show what's happened in the past few days. These were the positions just before Assad attacked:
On Feb 27th, Assad took Insha'at:
This was the assault on Baba Amr, what the FSA called a tactical withdrawal:
This is the latest intel we have on FSA and Assad positions at the moment:
They're getting wiped out. If the fight keeps moving in this direction, Assad will win.
Syrian refugees from Homs are telling the BBC and others that anyone taken by Assad's forces is being summarily executed. One group said that they watched Assad's forces cut the throats of 36 men and boys that the soldiers dragged into the streets. One mother said she watched a pro-Assad soldier put his boot on her son's head and hold him down while another cut his throat. The boy was 12.
Army deserters from what the BBC calls “an elite unit” reported that they were ordered to attack and murder civilians. They are confirming the reports from the refugees. They say that their orders were to “shoot at anything that moves.”
I believe them. The reports are consistent with what we've been hearing all along. This is the real reason that the Red Cross is being kept out of recently taken neighborhoods.
Militarily, the FSA might stand a much better chance of holding off Assad's assaults if it pulled back from the outer neighborhoods and concentrated its forces in hardened positions in areas of the city where tanks would have difficulty maneuvering.
This isn't going to happen. The FSA will not abandon anti-assad civilians to the Regime without a fight, especially with the atrocities that Assad's forces are committing in captured neighborhoods.
For reference, the newer areas of the city have wide open streets where tanks and vehicles can maneuver easily. The older areas of Homs are much narrower, and many of the paths there look like this.
Regrouping and concentrating might force the regime to change tactics. Those tactics would have to involve artillery and air strikes on FSA positions. Assad likely wouldn't care about the numerous civilian casualties resulting from such a scenario, so while the FSA might be better able to hold off attacks from tanks, they'd need anti-air weapons, or some kind of air support to be able to hold out against Assad.
Again, the point is moot. The FSA fighters are protecting their homes and their families. So they're going to get cut off, surrounded, and destroyed piece by piece. They performed what they called a "tactical withdrawal" from Baba Amr, but that only happened after the regime surrounded the neighborhood and attacked. While I'm getting some information, I have no idea what losses the FSA took in that attack. If I were the FSA, I sure as hell wouldn't tell anyone, because I wouldn't want Assad to know my strength.
Unless something changes or some foreign power intervenes, it is probable that Assad will be successful in brutally crushing this revolt.
There are a lot of ifs that could turn this around: If units of the military turn on Assad, if some group is able to get the fighters enough weapons and ammunition to hold the military off, if the French decide to send in special operations teams. But unless something happens, and happens quickly, the FSA has little hope for victory in Homs.
This shouldn't be surprising.
Throughout the Arab Spring, whenever the dictators have been both able and willing to bring the full force of their military might against the protesters, the regimes have prevailed. Sudan and Bahrain being good examples. The same thing is happening in Syria.