Get ready to get served an Angus King burger
Public Policy Polling (pdf). 3/2-4. Maine voters. MoE ±2.8% (±4.2% for Democratic sample, ±5.1% for Republican sample). (no trendlines):
Chellie Pingree (D): 31
Angus King (I): 36
Charlie Summers (R): 28
Undecided: 5
Chellie Pingree (D): 38
Eliot Cutler (I): 28
Charlie Summers (R): 30
Undecided:
Chellie Pingree (D): 49
Andrew Ian Dodge (I): 9
Charlie Summers (R): 33
Undecided:
Chellie Pingree (D): 53
Charlie Summers (R): 37
Undecided: 10
Chellie Pingree (D): 52
Rick Bennett (R): 39
Undecided: 9
Chellie Pingree (D): 51
Peter Cianchette (R): 39
Undecided: 9
Chellie Pingree (D): 53
Scott D'Amboise (R): 36
Undecided: 12
Chellie Pingree (D): 54
Bruce Poliquin (R): 33
Undecided: 12
Chellie Pingree (D): 53
Bill Schneider (R): 35
Undecided: 12
John Baldacci (D): 48
Charlie Summers (R): 39
Undecided: 13
John Baldacci (D): 43
Rick Bennett (R): 41
Undecided: 16
John Baldacci (D): 44
Peter Cianchette (R): 43
Undecided: 13
John Baldacci (D): 48
Scott D'Amboise (R): 36
Undecided: 16
John Baldacci (D): 50
Bruce Poliquin (R): 35
Undecided: 16
John Baldacci (D): 47
Bill Schneider (R): 36
Undecided: 17
Chellie Pingree (D): 52
John Baldacci (D): 28
Matt Dunlap (D): 11
Undecided: 10
Peter Cianchette (R): 21
Charlie Summers (R): 18
Scott D'Amboise (R): 10
Rick Bennett (R): 9
Bruce Poliquin (R): 8
Les Otten (R): 7
Deb Plowman (R): 4
Bill Schneider (R): 1
Undecided: 23
Whew! That's one exhaustive survey of Maine... and after all that, the situation following Olympia Snowe's surprise retirement is still about as clear as mud. For starters, we still don't know if Rep.
Chellie Pingree, who was presumed to be the Dems' best bet here (and that's borne out by this poll) will run. Her statement after ex-Gov. Angus King's announcement yesterday was: "While I have been humbled by the tremendous outpouring of support encouraging me to run, I'm going to continue thinking very carefully about whether or not I should enter this race..." We at Daily Kos Elections have been privately wondering whether she's thinking it might be better to defer to the 68-year-old King (with whom she's friendly) for one term and then run in 2018... or if she was just waiting, like the rest of us, for this PPP poll to see how the numbers broke down for her.
At any rate, what we do know after yesterday's announcement by King and after seeing this poll, is that King (who served as an Independent as Maine's governor from 1995 to 2003) starts out with an advantage here. He has by far the highest favorables of anyone in the poll (62/24), and in the one of the many permutations tested where he shows up, he wins a three-way heat against Pingree and Republican SoS Charlie Summers (though all three are clumped close enough together that any of the three could win). Without more permutations, though, it's hard to tell just how big an advantage it is for King. For instance, if Pingree doesn't run, and ex-Gov. John Baldacci is the Dem standard-bearer, does that only increase King's share, or would that increase the Republican's share?
It's generally understood that King leans more left than right, though he's been coy about how he'll caucus if he were in the Senate, to the extent that he's suggested he might caucus with nobody (which would render him useless as a Senator, meaning that he couldn't be on committees, leaving him nothing to do but sit around and wait for roll call votes). We're lucky that Maine is a strongly Dem-leaning enough state that it can sustain two candidates who are left of the center mark and not have it fracture the field enough that it lets the Republican sneak through. When asked whether voters prefer that King caucus with the Dems or the GOP, 51% say Democrats, 25% say Republicans, and 23% aren't sure. (They got similar numbers for asking about Eliot Cutler, who cuts a similar profile as King and nearly won the 2010 gubernatorial race as an Independent, as a Senator (45 D/24 R). Cutler doesn't fare as well in a three-way as King, though, suggesting that King has some unique appeal to Mainers; and it's a moot point anyway, since Cutler has already endorsed King.)
A few other observations: one, there's a big electability gap between Pingree (who has 47/41 favorables) and ex-Gov. John Baldacci, who left office unpopular and remains so (37/52). There aren't any Baldacci/King/GOPer permutations, but Baldacci comes close to losing against a few of the more appealing Republicans in two-way heats, while Pingree tops 50% against all of them. Baldacci also trails Pingree significantly in the Dem primary; the question today, though, is whether Pingree reverses course with King's entry and leaves the Dem field to Baldacci. Considering how widely liked King is, and how little-known the GOPers are, I suspect that King, rather than the Republican, would pick up more of the support that falls off from Pingree to Baldacci. (In fact, that prospect seems a lot like the Rhode Island gubernatorial contest in 2010, where liberal indie Lincoln Chafee won over a little-known Republican, John Robitaille, with unappealing Dem Frank Caprio further back.)
And two, nobody knows who these Republicans are; Charlie Summers, the Secretary of State ("elected" by the legislature rather than the voters in Maine), as well as former state Senator and the loser of the 2008 ME-01 open seat race to Pingree, is the only one who more than half the sample knows, at 22/32. Summers also has the top remaining GOP score in the kitchen-sink primary poll, as Peter Cianchette (the 2002 gubernatorial loser) has already announced that he's not running. That isn't to say that Summers (or whoever else gets the GOP nod) doesn't have a shot here, thanks to the split of the left-of-center votes and the likelihood of getting better known as the campaign unfolds. But given that King and Pingree are so well-known and well-liked, they seem to start out in the #1 and #2 positions for now... and King could consolidate things even more if Pingree decides not to run.
11:20 AM PT: Here's another indication that King is a force to be reckoned with here -- Patty Murray, who's head of the DSCC, did not rule out the possibility that the DSCC would back King in the race. Murray denied having talked to King about the race (though the question, about rumors about whether she's asked Pingree to stand down, either wasn't asked or didn't get answered).