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Leading Off:

ME-Sen: Though it wasn't a surprise given the tenor of her recent comments, Rep. Chellie Pingree's announcement on Wednesday that she wouldn't run for Senate is a big blow to Democratic hopes of capturing GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe's seat. Pingree's move, which follows fellow Dem Rep. Mike Michaud's decision to stay out, was heavily influenced by the entry of independent former Gov. Angus King, which made winning a three-way race much trickier. King now sits in the driver's seat and, if he agrees to caucus with Democrats should he be elected, could actually wind up being Team Blue's best hope. But King's public statements—he's refused to say which party he'd align with—run directly counter to that possibility, so the situation is still unclear. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections in which we try our best to figure out where things are headed next.

Senate:

HI-Sen: This is pretty funny. Republican ex-Gov. Linda Lingle, who says she wants to be the next Olympia Snowe, had the poor sense to schedule a DC fundraiser earlier this week where Sen. Roy Blunt was featured as the "special guest." You know, Roy Blunt, the sponsor of the infamous (and unpopular) Blunt amendment, which would allow employers to cut off any aspect of their employees' health insurance coverage—including birth control—for pretty much any made-up reason? The poster-manchild in the war against women's reproductive healthcare freedom?

Well, Dem Rep. Mazie Hirono didn't forget, and she lacerated Lingle for "cozying up" to Blunt. Lingle, realizing she screwed up, absolutely spazzed, so much so that her campaign forgot the meaning of common English words when it put out this statement:

"Whatever the purpose of the Hirono campaign’s personal attacks today against Governor Lingle and U.S. Senator Roy Blunt, they make one thing crystal clear. Mazie Hirono does not have the demeanor or temperament to be a United States Senator."
Poor Lingle! So upset, she can't even remember what the phrase "personal attacks" means!

MA-Sen: A sufficient number of polls published over the last month (four) have shown Scott Brown in the lead that they can't be dismissed as mere coincidence, and now it seems like it's time for a little Democratic circumspection about Elizabeth Warren's campaign. The Boston Globe talks to a variety of insiders, and while some seem worried that the initial burst of goodwill from her announcement seems to have worn off, nobody seems panicked, taking the long view instead.

One explanation for Brown's seeming resurrection may simply be that he's gotten a lot of media coverage in the last month that's helped to burnish his bipartisanship-y image at a time when Warren hasn't been on the air. A commenter at Blue Mass Group puts together a remarkably thorough log of the tradmed's coverage of the race for the last few months, suggesting how skilled Brown's press office is at getting him free media. (David Jarman)

ME-Sen: Does retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe favor state AG Bill Schneider as her successor in the Republican primary? Well, she did just rent him her email list so that he could send out a blast asking for help with his petition-gathering process to get on the ballot, so you could read that as a bit of tacit favoritism. But Snowe's camp says that this was just an arms-length transaction for "fair market value." Thing is, though, Snowe's not running for anything. So why does her campaign need to raise money via list rentals?

MN-Sen: Yet another Republican whose college writings are coming back to haunt him. Princeton University's student newspaper, the Daily Princetonian, digs up some of the more incendiary comments made or published by Afghanistan vet Pete Hegseth, who is trying to make a longshot bid against Dem Sen. Amy Klobuchar, back when he was editor of a right-wing magazine called the Princeton Tory. Dave Catanese picks out some of the most noteworthy bits:

"Diversity is a noteworthy discussion topic, yet highly overvalued at this University," Hegseth wrote in the April 2002 issue of the conservative magazine. "As the publisher of the Tory, I strive to defend the pillars of Western civilization against the distractions of diversity." [...]

In September, Hegseth and the other editors reacted to The New York Times’ announcement that it would print gay marriage announcements in its pages by arguing that the Times could then logically print announcements of other "marriages."

"The [New York Times’] explanation sounds nice on the surface, but its logic is dangerous," The Rant read. "At what point does the paper deem a ‘relationship’ unfit for publication? What if we ‘loved’ our sister and wanted to marry her? Or maybe two women at the same time? A 13-year-old? The family dog?"

If you want more, Teddy Schliefer's piece at the Princetonian goes into much greater detail. On a related note, another candidate is thinking about getting into the race: first-term GOP state Rep. Kurt Bills. But the odd thing? He won't say whether he'll run as a Republican or on the Libertarian line—not like he'll have much success either way.

MO-Sen: If it's a story about a candidate filing to create an obscure type of campaign vehicle, you just know it has to trace back to Greg Giroux. Every once in a rare while, a potential office-seeker will, instead of forming a normal FEC committee, create what's known as a 527 with the IRS. Several candidates have done so this cycle, all first spotted by Giroux: Dem Alan Khazei in MA-Sen (who has since dropped out), Dem Rob Garagiola in MD-06, and GOPer Frank Antenori (now running in the AZ-08 special).

The latest is Missouri Auditor Tom Schweich, who has reportedly been looking at a run for Senate and is the guy Republicans are hoping will save them from a dreadful field that includes Rep. Todd Akin, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and rich guy John Brunner. Schweich had also been considering a gubernatorial bid, and while I'm still not clear on why a candidate would establish a 527 instead of an FEC committee, I wonder if the fact that it's a federal entity means Schweich is leaning toward a Senate race rather than one for governor.

NE-Sen: Well, gee. Who'da thunk it? Rasmussen Reports has managed to churn out a poll showing Dem Bob Kerrey down 55-33 to Jon Bruning, and posting similarly weak numbers against the other two main Republicans as well. More telling is that Bruning also just released an internal, but only of the GOP primary. If his numbers against Kerrey were so gaudy, you'd expect Bruning to put those out as well, wouldn't you? Anyhow, Bruning's survey, from the Tarrance Group, has him with a huge 52-19 lead over Don Stenberg, with 11 for Deb Fischer.

Stenberg looks like he's getting some serious outside help, though, from the Club for Growth, which just endorsed him on Tuesday. Obviously the CfG's policy priorities are lunatic and their strategic vision self-defeating, but if there's one thing to their credit, they put their money where their mouths are, unlike a lot of conservative front groups which seem to exist mostly on paper (or Facebook).

In one final related note, retiring Dem Sen. Ben Nelson says he won't endorse Kerrey, but don't worry—it just sounds like Nelson's being Nelson. He says "I usually don't take sides in contested primaries"; remember, University of Nebraska Regent Chuck Hassebrook is still running for the Democratic nomination as well. Nelson adds that "I'll actively campaign" for whoever gets the nod.

NY-Sen (PDF): Siena's latest statewide sample has Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand looking ready to flatten any Republican opposition; she has 49/43 approvals, and 58-30 re-elects. Siena also asks a head-to-head involving George Maragos, her best-known opponent at this point; she leads Maragos (who has 5/17 faves) by a whopping 68-19. (The number from this poll that's probably getting the most press is the GOP presidential primary number, where Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul 38-23-13-11.)

Maragos doesn't have the primary to himself, though, despite the apparent futility of the endeavor. In fact, upstate conservatives, who tend to favor activist Wendy Long, are currently sending shots across the bow of the newest entrant, Rye town supervisor Joe Carvin, who has some self-funding capacity but is too squishy (he voted for Obama and is pro-choice) for their tastes. (David Jarman)

Gubernatorial:

WA-Gov (PDF): Just as the CW on the Massachusetts Senate race has seemingly shifted thanks to a few polls, something similar may be happening in Washington. Wednesday saw the release of a second straight survey showing the gubernatorial race a tie, something PPP found just a couple of weeks ago, after a string of polls featuring GOP leads. The new numbers are from Dem pollster Grove Insight on behalf of an unnamed union, though, so a measure of the usual skepticism may be in order. In any event, Grove has Republican AG Rob McKenna and Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee deadlocked at 38 apiece, with 25 undecided. The two men have nearly-identical faves (33/20 for McKenna, 33/21 for Inslee), but Inslee has a little more elbow room for growth, having nailed down 72% of Dems while McKenna has 77% of GOPers.

Also, here's a clever observation from PubliCola: The big loser from last week's Republican budget coup in the state Senate was... Rob McKenna. In case you missed the brouhaha, minority Republicans passed their budget out of the Senate with the aid of three moderate Dems. Don't worry; it promptly goes to the more-solidly-Dem-controlled state House to die, but that means the regular session is likely to end without a budget, meaning that the lege is likely to go into special session for another month. McKenna, as an elected statewide official, is prohibited from fundraising when the legislature is in season, so that means one more month sitting in the penalty box while Inslee is free to rattle his tin cup as much as possible. (David Jarman)

House:

AL-05: But of course. Hapless turncoat sap Parker Griffith, trying to make a comeback in the same GOP primary that turfed him two years ago after his fatal party switch, is relying almost entirely on his personal bank account to fuel his hopeless quest to return to Congress. Griffith has loaned or donated an impressive $568K to his campaign, out of the $585K in total receipts he's collected. I'd really like to know who those individual donors were, though. I mean, who wants to give up their hard-earned money to a chair-moistener like Griffith? You could probably do a pretty interesting study for a psychology journal.

FL-03: On the surface, I'd assume this was a baseless charge by a ambitious candidate upset that a sitting Rep. came in and stepped on his plans, but this has a whiff of "potentially very serious" to it. Jimmie Jett is the Clay County clerk who's running against long-time GOP Rep. Cliff Stearns in the new 3rd, which is not the district that Stearns lives in, but the one that offered him the best option,  post-redistricting. Jett claims that Stearns tried to bribe him out of running, offering him cash and patronage jobs. An easy charge to make, but Jett says a) that he has Stearns on tape doing so, and b) that the FBI (as opposed to the somnolent House Ethics committee) is investigating. Although this isn't a district where Dems are poised to capitalize, this story is worth keeping an eye on. Stearns of course hotly denies everything. (David Jarman)

FL-26: Democrats have experienced something of a recruiting fail in FL-26, where state Rep. Luis Garcia, highly touted when he first entered the race, has displayed weak fundraising chops and recently caused a blow-up when he falsely claimed an endorsement from another potential candidate, Annette Taddeo-Goldstein. So it's not surprising that Team Blue is casting about for other options, but what is surprising is who they're reportedly turning to, former Miami-Dade mayor Alex Penelas. To say that Penelas is not well-liked in many Democratic circles would be like saying there are a few people out there who aren't particularly fond of the Yankees.

Don't believe me? Check out this absolutely amazing quote from Al Gore in which he sounds more like Rahm Emanuel. Of Penelas, Gore said he was ''the single most treacherous and dishonest person I dealt with'' during the 2000 presidential campaign. Yes, Al Gore said this! If you aren't familiar with the backstory, the Miami Herald summarizes:

Penelas has some of his own baggage, but it has more to do with loyal Democrats who might still be bitter about his opposition to the Clinton Administration's decision to seize the child Elian Gonzalez from his Miami relatives' home and return him to his father in Cuba. Penelas refused to campaign alongside Vice President Al Gore that year when George Bush won Florida, and therefore the White House, by just 537 votes. Some felt Penelas betrayed Gore a second time by saying nothing when Miami-Dade's canvassing board halted its recount of disputed ballots.
Penelas, I should note, also spent the last couple of weeks before election day 2000 hiding out in Spain. He did so much damage to his own reputation that he scored just 10% in a four-way Democratic primary for Senate in 2004, even getting destroyed in his home county of Miami-Dade. While Penelas' supporters want to act like bad feelings have since ebbed, tell me, have you gotten over the 2000 elections? Yeah, me neither. Anyhow, Penelas isn't saying anything, but Garcia has promised that he's not going anywhere, so we may wind up with a primary on our hands that features some seriously less-than-stellar candidates.

NJ-10: Media outlets are reporting that the special election to replace veteran Democratic Rep. Donald Payne like won't be held until November, when voters will go to the polls to choose both a successor who will fill the final two months of Payne's term as well as one to begin serving the next full term in January. This long vacancy is standard practice in New Jersey: When then-Rep. Bob Menendez was tapped to fill Jon Corzine's Senate seat in January of 2006, the special to replace Menendez also was delayed until November. (The Hill notes that an earlier date is possible, though.)

What makes this situation somewhat unusual is that the election for the stub term will use the old 10th District lines, while the election for the full term will use the new borders, so that potentially increases the (unlikely) chance of anyone pulling a Neil Abercrombie. (In 1986, Abercrombie, now Hawaii's governor, won a special to fill Cecil Heftel's unexpired term but lost to Mufi Hannemann on the same day for the two-year term.) The same is true for the June 5 primary, though that's actually the much more important date, since whoever wins the Democratic nomination is guaranteed victory in this heavily blue seat.

As for possible candidates, potential names include Newark City Council President and Essex County freeholder Donald Payne, Jr. (a son of Rep. Payne), Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, and Newark councilman Ron Rice, who had been gearing up for a primary challenge to the elder Payne this year. PolitickerNJ also mentions former Assemblyman Craig Stanley, former Newark councilman Donald Bradley, and Essex County committeeman Rick Thigpen.

TX-10: Foreign policy analyst Dan Grant is dropping his challenge to Republican Rep. Michael McCaul. After the San Antonio court issued its first set of interim maps late last year, the 10th became a whole lot more winnable for Democrats, going from 55-44 McCain to just 52-47, which encouraged Grant to get in. But those maps were, of course, overturned by the Supreme Court, and the latest plan makes the 10th even more Republican, at 56-43 McCain. That's an almost impossibly tough row to hoe, so Grant's move is understandable.

TX-35: It wasn't a surprise last week when Rep. Lloyd Doggett decided to run in the newly-created 35th, a solidly-Dem district where his main problem is being an Anglo in a mostly-Hispanic district. Doggett's already facing a primary fight with at least one local Latino politician, Bexar County Assessor-Collector Sylvia Romo, and now it sounds like he might draw one more ahead of Friday's filing deadline: state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, who's the head of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus. (Martinez, though, sounds ambivalent in his quotes, and may be more interested in a run several years down the road.)

But bear in mind that the map still might not be a truly done deal. The D.C. court that's still handling the Voting Rights Act preclearance case seems particularly concerned with the shape of the new TX-25, which used to be Doggett's old district but got turned GOP-friendly; the panel has asked for additional briefs on whether the new district is unnecessarily Anglo. Anything that happens here might not happen soon enough to affect this year's election, but Doggett might find his old district more preferable in future iterations of the map. (David Jarman)

WA-01: Looks like we won't have Dennis Kucinich to kick around anymore after all... at least not for the rest of this cycle. After a spokesperson left the door open not long ago to the possibility that Kucinich might run in a different state where the filing deadline hasn't lapsed yet (most notably in the open 1st district in Washington, where he'd reportedly been scouting around for a while last summer), on Wednesday Kucinich confirmed that he won't turn around and look elsewhere. He said that he'll serve out the rest of his term (precluding a run elsewhere, since he'd need to resign and establish residency in a different state), though he wouldn't make any decisions till next January on the possibility of regrouping and running somewhere else in 2014. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Oregon: Tuesday was the filing deadline in Oregon, and Blue Oregon's Kari Chisholm has provided great coverage. I'd suggest clicking through to read his whole roundup, but here's a summary: Suzanne Bonamici (OR-01) and Kurt Schrader (OR-05) are facing only Some Dude-level opposition (with no return engagement from Rob Cornilles in the 5th), while Peter DeFazio (OR-04) faces a rematch against wacko but well-funded home-school advocate Art Robinson, who made things slightly competitive in 2010.

Republicans didn't bother fielding AG or state Treasurer candidates; the biggest statewide race is for Labor Commissioner, an ostensibly nonpartisan job (though most folks know that incumbent Brad Avakian is a D and opponent state Sen. Bruce Starr is an R). Dems also did a good job with recruitment in the state House (currently a 30-30 tie between the parties), but the most interesting news on the legislative front may be the surprise retirement of youngish Republican state Sen. Jason Atkinson, who had a period of being universally described as "up-and-coming" before kind of slipping off people's radars in the last few years. He says he won't be out of public service for long, meaning he might be thinking about a statewide run in 2014. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Campaign Finance: This New York Times article about how the IRS is starting to look into cracking down on tax-exempt 501(c)(4) organizations that don't do anything in favor of the "social welfare" (unless you consider electing Republicans to be an example of "social welfare") is worth a read. Maybe most interesting, though, is a buried nugget, pointing to a truly nasty possibility at the juncture of Citizens United and SpeechNow that hadn't occurred to me before: corporations giving to political 501(c)(4)s and then writing it off their taxes as a business expense. (David Jarman)

Maine: PPP rounds out its Maine sample with the usual grab bag of miscellaneous data. Most attention-grabbing are the numbers on the gay marriage referendum that will appear on November's ballot; the ballot measure's language (which would re-legalize gay marriage, undoing a previous referendum) is favored by a 47-32 margin, and more generally, voters think by a 54-41 spread that gay marriage should be legal, a pretty remarkable turnaround in little more than two years. They also find Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins both popular, at 69/26 and 60/31 respectively, but Republican Gov. Paul LePage not so much. He's at 41/52 approvals, and would lose a hypothetical rematch to independent Eliot Cutler 43-35 (with 19 for Dem Libby Mitchell). (David Jarman)

Ohio GOP: It looks like state GOP chair Kevin DeWine is declaring victory over Gov. John Kasich in the long-running, utterly parochial battle for control of the Ohio Republican Party. (For some background on this baroque fight, click here and here.) But while DeWine may have prevailed in this round—candidates loyal to him just won election to the party's central committee, giving him a majority—I can't imagine an egomaniac like Kasich is going to give up. In other words, here's hoping for more cat fud!

Redistricting Roundup:

NY Redistricting: Thanks to jeffmd's hard work, we now have complete election results according to the court's proposed new congressional districts for all statewide elections in New York in 2008 and 2010. At the link, you'll also find re-cast congressional results (that is to say, how things would look if everyone voted for Congress under the new lines the same way they did the last two cycles) and voter registration figures, again broken now by CD. Below is a chart of the Obama-McCain results, which you can also find here:

New CD Old CD Incumbent Party Obama
(new)
McCain
(new)
Obama
(old)
McCain
(old)
NY-01 NY-01 Bishop (D) 51 48 52 48
NY-02 NY-03 King (R) 51 48 47 52
NY-03 NY-02 Israel (D) 54 46 56 43
NY-04 NY-04 McCarthy (D) 55 44 58 41
NY-05 NY-06 Meeks (D) 86 14 89 11
NY-06 NY-05 Ackerman (D) 63 36 63 36
NY-07 NY-12 Velazquez (D) 84 15 86 13
NY-08 NY-10 Towns (D) 84 16 91 9
NY-09 NY-11 Clarke (D) 86 13 91 9
NY-10 NY-08 Nadler (D) 76 23 74 26
NY-11 NY-13 Grimm (R) 48 51 49 51
NY-12 NY-14 Maloney (D) 80 19 78 21
NY-13 NY-15 Rangel (D) 93 6 93 6
NY-14 NY-07 Crowley (D) 76 23 79 20
NY-15 NY-16 Serrano (D) 95 5 95 5
NY-16 NY-17 Engel (D) 73 26 72 28
NY-17 NY-18 Lowey (D) 58 41 62 38
NY-18 NY-19 Hayworth (R) 52 47 51 48
NY-19 NY-20 Gibson (R) 53 45 51 48
NY-20 NY-21 Tonko (D) 58 40 58 40
NY-21 NY-23 Owens (D) 52 47 52 47
NY-22 NY-24 Hanna (R) 49 49 51 48
NY-23 NY-29 Reed (R) 50 49 48 51
NY-24 NY-25 Buerkle (R) 56 42 56 43
NY-25 NY-28 Slaughter (D) 59 40 69 30
NY-26 NY-27 Higgins (D) 63 35 54 44
NY-27 NY-26 Hochul (D) 44 54 46 52
--- NY-09 Turner (R) --- --- 55 44
--- NY-22 OPEN (D) --- --- 59 39
There have also been a few more developments related to the new map:
NY-05: Oh, I know he won't possibly follow through on this, but if he did, GOP Rep. Bob Turner would create the most hilarious incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchup of the cycle by far. Said Turner of the new court-drawn map: "I am prepared to run in whatever district I reside in once the final lines are adopted." Well, right now, his neighborhood of Rockaway Point in Queens has been placed into the new 5th CD, where Dem Rep. Gregory Meeks would undoubtedly seek re-election. As it happens, it's also a majority-black district that support Obama by a truly comical 86-14 margin. I wonder if Turner would outperform McCain....

NY-07: I've been skeptical about the prospect of NYC councilman Erik Dilan actually going ahead with a challenge to Rep. Nydia Velazquez in the Democratic primary, something rumored since last year and which Dilan recently confirmed he's been looking at. Now Dilan's gone ahead and created an FEC committee; while certainly not dispositive, it's obviously a step closer to an actual run. What's more, the new draft congressional map strengthens his hand, in part by placing an enclave of Satmar Hasidim allied with Brooklyn Democratic boss Vito Lopez into Velazquez's district (which used to be the old 12th) from Ed Towns' turf. What do a bunch of Hasidim have to do with this race? Lopez and Velazquez are arch-enemies, so any group loyal to Lopez would be likely to side with Dilan.

NY-09/NY-08: Relatedly, Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries has filed objections to the proposed new map, which removes much of his base from the district represented by Rep. Ed Towns (the old 10th, the new 8th), the man he's hoping to unseat in the Democratic primary. Now Jeffries would likely have to face off against a different Democrat, Yvette Clarke, in the new 9th (old 11th). I happen to think Jeffries would have a shot at defeating Clarke, who gets a bunch of new turf under this map and has never faced a stiff primary challenge, unlike Towns, who pretty much gets one every cycle. But Clarke doesn't like the idea, either, since she, too, has made her unhappiness known to the court. Oh, and this is all related to the above item because Lopez has forged an unlikely alliance with Jeffries, so the removal of Lopez supporters from Towns' seat hurts Jeffries.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  re Hegseth (MN-Sen): (0+ / 0-)

    I love this from the linked piece:

    [Hegseth] does acknowledge that pushing the envelope may have produced "phraseology or terms or language that was maybe too sharp."
    "Maybe too sharp"? That is just ever-so-slightly more enlightened than Limbaugh's nopology...

    Klobuchar has nothing to fear.

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:06:49 AM PST

  •  Dominican group files challenge to NY map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, askew
    A group pushing for a Dominican Congressional district that would encompass parts of Washington Heights, Inwood, the Bronx and Queens filed a legal challenge to newly proposed congressional lines Wednesday.

    Under the new congressional lines released Tuesday by a federal judge, the former historically black 15th congressional district, now represented by Rep. Charles Rangel, would remain largely the same and include more of the Southern Bronx. The new  district would be 55 percent Hispanic.

    But the plan doesn't do enough to link people of "like interests" said Maria Teresa Feliciano, president of the Dominican American National Roundtable.

    http://www.dnainfo.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:16:50 AM PST

  •  Skelos claims Republicans can pick up 4 seats (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, MartyM
    Skelos said the judge's proposal provides some districts with plenty of Republican voters to give GOP candidates a strong shot at the Democratic areas now represented by Reps. Bill Owens in northern New York, Louise Slaughter and Kathy Hochul in western New York, and Timothy Bishop on Long Island.
    http://www.therepublic.com/...

    Must be smoking some pretty good ganja to think they can win Slaughter's seat.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:21:43 AM PST

    •  He's full of crap (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, pademocrat, HoosierD42

      I'd be shocked if repubs did any better than D+1/R-3 seats.  Only dem-held seat Tossup or better for the NY GOP under this map is Hochul's current district.  Owens is more like Leans D, Bishop Likely D and Slaughter Solid D.  Repubs have quite a few seats I'd call Tossup or Leans D - Hayworth, Grimm, Gibson  and Buerkle's seats all fall into one of those categories.  Skelos is either outright lying or still thinks we're still in the 2010 election cycle.

      •  The big dispute I have with most here on this (5+ / 0-)

        is the Owens seat.  He's never cracked 50%.  If he finally gets in a two candidate race, I would call it a tossup at best.  Even in a presidential year.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:33:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

          And Doheny is starting to wrap up endorsements or Republican and Conservative party members.  And if Hoffman runs for Assembly, then i think Owens might be toast.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:54:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  He got 47.5% in 2010, according to Wiki (6+ / 0-)

          Since his district's partisanship hasn't changed much, as far as I know, he only needs to improve a little--and almost every Democratic incumbent will improve a little simply because it's not going to be 2010 anymore .

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:54:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It appears (0+ / 0-)

            He'll be running against a unified opposition this time.    He actually needs to improve a decent amount, as this is the type of race where GOP turnout/Dem turnout vs 2008 might actually favor the GOP.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:10:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The average D got 44.8% in 2010 (6+ / 0-)

              The average R got 51.4% that year.

              In a completely even year, Ds on average will improve by 3.3%.

              In addition, Owens will have the advantage of 3 years of incumbency, significantly different from 1 year. So if Owens improves by "only" that 3.3%, he'll probably be fine.

              And given the relative unpopularity of House Rs, I'm anticipating an average improvement > 3.3%.

              However, I don't know what local issues might be in play that could hurt Owens.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:27:49 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  He's picking up (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack, Odysseus

                Decent chunks of place he hasn't served before and that went for Gibson.  And Doheny isn't exactly unknown.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:43:29 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  It's all in the same media markets (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ChadmanFL

                  I suspect that his name recognition in the new territory (about 20%?) is almost as good as the rest of the district.

                  "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                  For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                  by tietack on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:01:44 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Um no (0+ / 0-)

                    Warren/Washington/Saratoga are in the Albany-Schenectady media market, which don't cover North of Glens Falls (warren County) for the most part.

                    His old district was covered by Plattsburgh-Burlington and Watertown markets.  

                    This is entirely new turf and people who don't/won't know who he is.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:20:12 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  There's Hamilton and Fulton Counties from the old (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      rdw72777

                      NY-23

                      My understanding is that they're served by Capitol district media.

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:26:17 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  They might be (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        tietack

                        But Hamilton has only 5K people and Fulton only like 55K (and he didn't have all of it), so I don't think he did much in the Albany market.  

                        Having Warren/Washington/Saratoga (part) requires him to get into this market, which is going to be substantially more expensive too.  It looks like those 3 counties total population is about 150K people census-wise, and maybe 50K + voters.  He'll definitely need to be a major player in this market, moreso than 2010 for sure.

                        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                        by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:32:02 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

          •  agree (0+ / 0-)

            Also, some of Hoffman's voters probably would have left their ballots blank or written someone in instead of voting for Doheny. I don't think it would be a very big fraction, but if even 10% would have dropped off then in effect Owens only needs an extra 2.2%, not 2.5%.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:31:17 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Never cracked 50% in TWO whole elections (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, R30A, bumiputera, sacman701

          You're talking about a ridiculously small sample.  He's only been in two races.  Both of which occurred when Dems were at or near a low point nationally and 2010 was the worst election since 1994.  Despite that he still scored 48.3 and 47.5% of the vote.  The GOP field was split both times but lets not get silly here, I doubt it had a big effect on Owens's vote totals.  I have a hard time believing it's some epic struggle for Owens to pickup another 2 or 3 points from the worst Dem cycle in 16+ years.

      •  does Grimm in NY-11 have a Dem challenger? (0+ / 0-)

        Republicans have the 1% vote locked up.

        by MartyM on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:35:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not in 2012. (0+ / 0-)

      In 2014 if Obama is re-elected ALL of Long Island worries me.  With Rochester literally imploding her Rochester district does worry me once she retires.  And given she is 82 that isn't that far away.  Though in that regard given King was given a number of Democratic trending areas his seat could become less comfortable in a number of years.

      This year.  As a given Democrats lose Hinchey.  Republicans lose Turner.  Republicans could pickup Bishop and Owens.  And will pickup Hotchul.  Israel and McCarthy should be safe in higher turnout Presidential years.  That would be +3 Republican.  Of course that assumes you can somehow keep Buerkle in office.  So we're down to +2 Republican.

      And then you have Grimm, Gibson, and, Hayworth.  While I'd place my money on one of those three losing (probably either Gibson or Hayworth unless Grimm's indictment comes pre-election).  It's possible though all three could prevail.

      •  Rochester imploding? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        What does that mean exactly?

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:44:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe it's the effect of the solar storm (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Marcus Graly, HoosierD42

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

          by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:50:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Literally imploding (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits, sacman701, geoneb, HoosierD42

          You haven't heard the news?  The whole city's gone.  Not a building left.  It's like an episode of "Fringe".

          Sorry, Taget.  Anyway, 59% Obama seats are fine unless the "Fringe" event means the district has actually been in Illinois since 2008, and Dan Seals is the candidate.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:52:22 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was curious if something political was going on (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A

            I know sometimes people think upstate NY is the equivalent of some dying areas in PA or OH but most places upstate are actually doing decently.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:58:03 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Population is declining. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ChadmanFL

          New York lost population due to upstate losses particularly upstate.  Particularly Buffalo and Rochester.

          •  Upstate NY didn't lose population (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits

            Sorry that's simply not true.  The county Rochester is in (Monroe) grew slightly from 2000-2010.

             I think only 1 county in all of NY lost more than 5K people from 2000-2010 (Erie, down 30K) and the gains in Albany/Saratoga/Rensselaer alone more than offset this.

            In fact I think close to a dozen counties gained more than 5K people while only 1 lost more than 5K people in NY from 2000-10.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:06:13 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I meant the city of Rochester (0+ / 0-)

              Though wikipedia only shows about a 10k drop as opposed to the 30k drop in Buffalo.

              •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                I mean losing 10K people isn't great, but for a city with Kodak's downfall I'd actually say that it is great if you think about it.  

                Upstate NY is actually proving more resilient than I would have though and places like Rochester and the Albany area give me hope as they revitalize and become bigger bases for education, research and govt (for Albany).

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 09:10:33 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  It's true that... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mark27

            If you look at the two-party vote in 2010 in Slaughter's new district, Republicans slightly outvoted Democrats.  Of course, Slaughter's a different candidate, but it shows in a perfect storm, the seat is vulnerable.

            That said, unlike Erie County, Monroe County isn't really shifting to the right.  So it won't become any more vulnerable as the decade plods on.  

          •  New York gained population IINM (0+ / 0-)

            Only one state lost population- Michigan. Louisiana came close for obvious reasons, but ended up above 2000 numbers in the end.

            Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

            by R30A on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 10:31:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Pessimistic there. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, R30A, pademocrat

        You're predicting that Republicans will pick up, in a Presidential year, multiple seats that were more Democratic than all but two of their wins in the Republican year of 2010? I would suggest, given the numbers, that it's much likelier to have an all-blue New York delegation than to have three Republican pick-ups. There's only one district in the entire thing (Hochul) where the Obama percentage was under 49. I'd put the peak at a 25-2 D map and have +/- 2 on that.

        NH4JL DIT '04, NHDP DIT '08!

        by realnrh on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:48:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have 21-6, with a +/- of 1 (0+ / 0-)

          Are you saying you think it could be 27-0?

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

          by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:52:50 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Every GOP seat (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A, James Allen, Inkpen

            Except for Peter King's 3rd district went Dem at least one election  i nthe past decade.  It's unlikely but not impossible.  There aren't any truely "safe GOP" seats in NY.  Especially with how far-right the national GOP has moved in recent years.

            •  Theoretically possible (0+ / 0-)

              But highly unlikely.  Yes, they held every seat but King's at one time or another the last 5 years, and his has been made a little more Democratic, but it would take a massive collapse to get a clean sweep.  If Santorum were on the top of the ticket, it might be plausible.  But with Romney, highly unlikely.

              "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

              by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:21:14 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Even with Santorum (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Odysseus

                I don't think we'll see the dearth of turnout for Republicans that some might predict.  

                They show up to vote religiously in a lot of cases, they'll show in NY for Congressional/presidential elections even if they have to hold their nose for the very top of the ballot.

                It's kind of how Cuomo won so big but they still held some congressional seats.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:25:19 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  His district has moved further towards us (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ChadmanFL, R30A

                than Hochul's has towards them.

                I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:56:08 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  And King's new seat, (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ChadmanFL, pademocrat

              provided the map remains unchanged, is far from out of reach.

              Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

              by R30A on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:29:15 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Perhaps I was unclear. (0+ / 0-)

          I was talking about how delusional a +4 prediction by a Republican leader is.  A +4 prediction for 2012 is not doable. +2 might be possible.

          Of course I'm not the Republican leader.  If I was to wager I'd bet Owens and Hotchul go down.  Bishop continues to survive.  And Hayworth goes down as well.

          As for future elections the weakening of all Long Island districts does worry me.   As Long Island while trending Democratic has been in the past traditional Republican territory.  And Obama may have overperformed in this area in 2012.  Not saying any of them will lose.  But redistricting has made everything shakier for everyone.

          •  Obama under-performed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mark27

            In Long Island compared to Clinton/Gore - the region, at least on the presidential level, does seem to be drifting a bit rightward again.  Not like Western PA (or even the Buffalo area), but it's clearly not headed in our direction (nowhere but the North Country really is).  

          •  I think Hotchul may go down but not Owens (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            Owens has the support of most of the small businesses in the area. He earned respect from people all over the political spectrum for his base closure work. He has also worked on vets issues including a measure to increase funding for PTSD treatment.

            My husband was born in Plattsburg and has family in Mooers and West Chazy. They tell us that Owens is well liked and has strong support from Independents as well as Dems.

      •  Owens? Are you crazy? (0+ / 0-)

        You can count on one hand the number of Republicans that live in this district.

      •  Every district isn't going to be D+6 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Marcus Graly

        Democrats (obviously) need to be able to win seats that might be vulnerable in a bad year to come anywhere close to winning the House.  Your standard is a bit high if every map that has seats that might be worrisome in a bad midterm election is automatically a disaster.  If Democratic incumbents can't hold on to swing/R+1 districts, then the party has bigger problems.  Long Island is swingy--perhaps it's trending, but we'll see.  I think Bishop and Owens will be fine most of the time.  Hochul and Buerkle are in trouble, and beyond that I think it's the Republicans who have seats to lose.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:20:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think everyone, except Owens is somewhat secure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701

        And even he has a good chance. Bishop won in 2010, albeit under more Democratic lines, but I think he's strong enough to hold the new district in a wave as well.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:38:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Quite the opposite (0+ / 0-)

      I can see Democrats picking up four seats if they play their cards right.

  •  I spoke last night... (17+ / 0-)

    to Michael Dukakis at a Bruin Democrats dinner with him, and he said that he was getting concerned about Elizabeth Warren's campaign, because they're not focusing enough on the ground game.  He won the governorship in Massachusetts by knowing exactly how many precincts there were, getting a precinct captain for every single one, and making repeated personal contacts with the voters in each and every single neighborhood.

    He said he gets e-mails from Warren's campaign every week, but none so far have actually asked residents of Massachusetts to become precinct captains or volunteers!  Because she WILL lose the ad war thanks to Karl Rove's PAC money, she MUST make up for it in the ground game.  And right now it's lacking.

    Can DailyKos do a kind of e-mail blast for its Massachusetts Kossacks, asking them to volunteer for Warren's campaign in one way or another?  She needs boots on the ground more than anything now.  "People power" does not simply mean more donations to ActBlue, it means physical boots on the ground, going door to door in every single damn neighborhood in the state.


    Dukakis said the same of Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), who he's known for decades (they're longtime family friends).  Bennet was going to lose the primary to Andrew Romanoff, until Dukakis begged and pleaded with Bennet's wife to tell Michael to focus on the ground game.  Until that point, he had been running the traditional campaign where almost all the money goes into advertising.  They finally put some effort into the ground game, got organized, and y'all know what finally happened.  Bennet later admitted to Dukakis that had he not listened to him, Ken Buck would be the Senator right now.

    Dukakis also had very high praise for Joseph Kennedy III, running for Barney Frank's seat.  Oh, and the person who ran Ami Bera's (CA-03) campaign in 2010 was basically forced upon Bera by the DNC, who then proceeded to make him do all the WRONG things, and he lost.  Though it seems he's learned from his 2010 mistakes.

    •  Email this info to the campaign... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, Onomastic, pademocrat

      Post a diary about it here, and maybe some other Kossacks with more pull in MA can get her to listen as well.  I'm a little lost as to why her campaign seems to be sleeping at the moment.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:53:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  His highest praise seems for himself (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA, Onomastic, dc1000

      Dukakis saved Bennet's Senate race?  Really?  The idea of a ground game did not originate with Dukakis, and I'm not sure I've ever heard him as the godfather of ground-game campaign strategy.

      The fretting about MA-Sen is quite amazing.  We have other who say whenever they contact the campaign they are recruited as volunteers and that the campaign is recruiting people/soliciting donations.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:04:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        Her standing has worsened after being artificially inflated by the best campaign rollout in recent memory.  This is absolutely unsurprising.

        If she were spending her valuable time doing things like encouraging people to become precinct captains, backseat drivers like Dukakis would tell her to stop dealing with the nitty-gritty of field work and raise money so she can compete with Brown's massive cash stockpile.  That job is even more important than usual given the prospect of minimal outside PAC spending and Brown's COH advantage.

        Brown is going to be a tougher candidate to beat than many people had expected when his poll numbers tanked after Warren announced, but it's far from hand-wringing time.

      •  They're recruiting volunteers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        But what about actually doing something with them?  I've been a registered Democrat for over twenty years now and I haven't seen so much as a single piece of campaign literature.  I also haven't heard any ads, and I listen to WHMP-AM regularly.  The Valley is NOT all blue, a lot of people have no idea who Elizabeth Warren is, and I haven't seen much evidence that her campaign is doing more than preaching to the choir.

        I really feel like Cassandra right now....

        •  One place I think she needs to go (0+ / 0-)

          is the Cape off-season (as in now), while it's mostly local voters. Totally agree she needs to hit 413 also.

          •  See my post below (0+ / 0-)

            She has been to Western/Central MA, and very recently.  Multiple cities, the idea she's not running statewide and visiting place is pure bunk.  Some of the purest bunk ever seen.

            She was there on feb 25
            http://www.wickedlocal.com/...

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:12:48 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Glad to see it! (0+ / 0-)

              Didn't mean to imply she's Coakley II, but Brown's numbers are a bit alarming.

              •  He's an incumbent (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                And perceived bipartisan.  There's not much Warren could do about either right now, so just let the poll numbers be.  When she attacks him after Labor Day and can hash all the GOP votes he's taken it will be fine.

                She can't win the election in March anyways, and despite the off-base murmurs that she doesn't leave Boston, she is running a statewide campaign.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:22:27 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Dude. Those events were weeks and months ago. (0+ / 0-)

              Some were last year.  Several were invitation-only, including the house party in Springfield that I attended last month...and I got the invitation to that only by e-mailing a friend who ran John Kerry's local campaign in 2004, who put me in touch with a local Democratic committeewoman, who gave me the contact information.   My multiple attempts to get information from her campaign about upcoming events were a total bust.

              Worse, I gave Warren's campaign my contact information, including e-mail, phone, and address.  To date, almost a month later, I haven't gotten so much as a single e-mail.  The Democratic committeewoman has been touch with me, so there's that at least, but Warren's campaign?  Zilch.

              I've never dealt with a major campaign before, but if this is how they're all run, well.....

              •  What do you expect? (0+ / 0-)

                She's not going to be in every town every week.

                Invite only events are common, if they're for volunteers or groups supporting her campaign.  

                Seriously, there is no pleasing you.  Most of those visits were in the last 3 weeks.  The fact she hasn't been to pittsfuield in march is not a campaign mis-step.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 11:13:34 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Sigh (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27, Inkpen

          Yup, it's a shame she hasn't addressed anyone outside Boston.  Seriously, go to google, type in the name of a city in Massachusetts and Liz Warren's name and you'll find she's been there.

          Feb 17 in North Adams
          http://www.iberkshires.com/...

          Feb 18 in Springfield, Ware, Amherst, Palmer
          http://www.masslive.com/...

          Feb 17 in greenfield, MA
          http://www.youtube.com/...

          Feb 17 in Bernardston
          http://www.wwlp.com/...

          Feb 8 in Millbury (Worcester)
          http://www.thedailygrafton.com/...

          Dec 5 Northhampton
          http://www.masslive.com/...

          Nov 6 in Lowell
          http://www.youtube.com/...

          Nov 3 in pittsfield
          http://www.flickr.com/...

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:00:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Here's another opinion from Cape Cod (0+ / 0-)

            http://www.capecodtoday.com/...

            Also, please go read some of the other threads about Warren's campaign on this site.  I am not the only local who's worried.

            •  Youa re the only one (0+ / 0-)

              Who comes into the DD often and keeps bringing up the same tired points.  She is visiting areas outside Boston.  She is holding volunteer events.

              I can find opinions of people who are ecstatic about working on her campaign too.  those are just opinions.  but your assertion that she's not campaigning statewide is simply dis-proven.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 11:15:28 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I never disputed that Warren is (0+ / 0-)

                holding events for volunteers, just that there's no public campaign schedule on her web site.  I am also not the only person who is worried about her campaign.  

                •  They're knocking on doors (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ndrwmls10, sapelcovits

                  organizing events, etc.  Just like you'd expect.  

                  I can;t find a calendar on baldwin's site in WI.

                  http://www.tammybaldwin.com/

                  heidi heitkamp has one event on her calendar, that she's going to be at the Dem convention (jeez I hope so).

                  http://heidifornorthdakota.com/...

                  Lack of a campaign calendar is not indication of running a bad campaign.

                  Statements like "I haven't seen much evidence that her campaign is doing more than preaching to the choir." are pretty much unfounded when she's campaigning all over the state, at different types of venues, talking to different types of constituencies, etc.  

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 12:47:59 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Ellid can't seem to help her negativity. (0+ / 0-)

                    She hasn't liked Warren from the start and has nitpicked every last thing she does. Also that "ignoring the rest of the state" line is one of Ellid's go to favorites. Even though it's a clear lie and/or ignorance.

                    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 01:09:49 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  I still don't see a campaign schedule up (0+ / 0-)

            The news is all about her press releases.  If you have a link to upcoming appearances, please list it, because I didn't see one.

        •  Granted, I'm in Boston and Warren (0+ / 0-)

          is allegedly running too metro of a campaign, but I got a rare email from a city councilor yesterday about Warren visiting West Roxbury with him. This is a neighborhood Coakley barely won in 2010, where a baseline Dem candidate should get 60 percent (being the second most conservative Boston neighborhood, after all). I'm guessing an email like this is an attempt to make Warren more visible.

          27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

          by bumiputera on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:02:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  No... (0+ / 0-)

        but the ground game most certainly contributed to Bennet's win, when you consider how close that margin was.

        And yes, we've all heard about the ground game, but you'd be surprised how many DC consultants decide to scrap it, or pay little attention to it, in favor of TV and radio ad buys and mailers.

        How did the Obama campaign win so big, and in unexpected places?  They had field organizers up the wazoo.  What was it, 3,000?  They had precinct captains in just about every single damn precinct in the entire country, even in the reddest areas within the reddest of states.  Each precinct captain had 5 or 6 block captains responsible for specific neighborhoods.  And they would repeatedly go around making contact with the people who lived there to turn them into solid Obama voters.

        Yes, this is not rocket science.  And yet, so many campaigns ignore it.  Go ask Michael Bennet how many precinct captains he had, he'll know the answer.  Most candidates have no clue, and don't even know how many precincts there are in their district/state.

    •  Your comments have been passed on to the campaign. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BruinKid

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:58:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't surprise me at all (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat

      Dukakis confirms what I've been sensing for a while now.  I hope to God Warren's staff listens, because right now they're on the verge of letting a very winnable seat slip away.

    •  Surely (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, askew

      Dukakis has enough clout to get those concerns to the Dem state chair, if not to Warren herself?

    •  You know it's March, right? (5+ / 0-)

      I feel like there's way too much circumspection and second guessing going on.  Spring hasn't even begun yet, she and her campaign have plenty of time.  My friend Jefferson who's running for mayor here absolutely believes in the ground game, and he just launched his on Saturday.  But his primary election he has to win one of the top two positions in is in mid-May.  Elizabeth Warren has plenty of time before November to get hers going.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:09:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There's no third party spending allowed. (0+ / 0-)

      or else their campaigns pay a penalty.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:39:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Brown already has been penalized. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, bumiputera

        Warren is letting people vote on her website for what charity the money should go to.

        (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:42:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  But how much... (0+ / 0-)

        did Rove spend trashing Warren BEFORE that agreement?  That did take a toll, I'm sure, and the only way to combat that is boots on the ground.  Warren cannot physically be in multiple locations at once, so she needs surrogates to make her case for her.  And the best ones are your friends and neighbors.  Having someone "from the neighborhood" making the case for Warren can have a HUGE impact.  And it will need to, because even assuming a right-wing 3rd party group won't pull some dirty tricks (and you know they will), she will STILL be massively outspent by Scott Brown, given how much money Wall Street has dumped into his campaign coffers.

  •  Zeller may take another crack at Reed (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.eveningtribune.com/...

    Lost last time 56-44.  Proposed district has been made a little more Democratic.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:39:36 AM PST

  •  Maine Democrats seem to support Pingree's decision (14+ / 0-)
    Local Democrats said Pingree was smart not to take on King and fracture the state in a three-way race.

    "Everyone I've spoke with — hard-core Democrats and medium-core Democrats — said we were so hurt by the mistakes of the last election year. We have to make sure we don't do that again," said Eliot Democratic Town Committee member Carol Selsberg.

    . . . .

    "A three-way race could have disastrous consequences, and Maine doesn't have a runoff system," said Lydia Blume, director of the southern York County Seacoast Democrats. "There's no way to strategize a three-way race. Because this is Maine, independents have to be considered major candidates. If we were living in New York, it would be different — but we're not."

    http://www.seacoastonline.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:45:09 AM PST

    •  I think it sucks... (8+ / 0-)

      Especialy since King seems like such a flake.  It wouldn't be hard to get Dems to come home to our own candidate once his flakiness was exposed, and that's all the dem candidate would need.

      King is assumed to be a lock, but I think that's wrong, too.  The only thing that is really saving him is Maine's Democratic lean.  Any decent candidate would be able to expose his extreme flakiness and make him look clueless.  He already looks lost.  The guy's a paper juggernaut.

      Anyways, it looks like King will caucus with us, but I'm sure we'll have to deal with his "independence" often enough that we're going to be screaming a lot over her.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:51:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You saw (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, Onomastic, dc1000

        The approvals and his Maine electoral record, right?

        You don't really think his responses to the caucus questions are having a very big impact do you?

        Also, King is a "him", not a "her".

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 05:56:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hillary Clinton has 66% favorable (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27

          Sarah Palin had near 70% approval when she was chosen to be VP candidate.

          Approval numbers are an inch deep.  Is his numbers high because pols are remembered fondly - Bush is back up to 48% approval and Clinton would plummet if she got back into the political game and ran for anything.  

          King is a flake - Pingree could have beat him.  As long and King keeps saying he won't caucus with either side - she'd have taken almost all his Democratic support.  

          She deferred to him because she likes him or something because they have Thanksgiving dinner together, he didn't think twice about screwing her over to stroke his own ego.  

          She should have buried him.  

          •  Good grief (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            OGGoldy

            His approvals when he left office were also crazy high.

            You've already been warned about going off the deep-end on this, so I'll avoid engaging.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:04:33 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

              •  By David (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:12:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's not a warning, more of a tip. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Ellid, LordMike

                  And I didn't even see that until you pointed it out just now.  I can't say I agree with the sentiment really though.   Warren is the underdog - I don't see that as being bearish.  In a non-Presidential year she wouldn't have a chance at knocking off Brown.  Folks always seem to underestimate Brown as a politician - I think he has been damn good at pretending he's an "independent Republican" ever since Warren came on the scene and panicked him.

                  The initial heat has faded from the Warren campaign and now it's back to candidate vs candidate - one an experienced politician who has won races in Massachusetts and a person new to the political campaign world.  

                  As for me being mostly negative, I don't see that either.  I guess I just don't see too much opportunity or discussion here about the re-election chances of Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, Diane Feinstein, Kirsten Gillibrand, Debbie Stabenow, Cantwell, Sanders, Manchin, Bill Nelson, Carper, menendez, Casey, or Whitehouse - who for the record I believe will all be re-elected.  Or Martin Heinrich in NM who I think will be elected, Hirono in Hawaii who I think will be elected, Murphy in Connecticut who I think will be elected.  I like out chances in keeping Wisconsin and Virginia as well, though that will depend on if Thompson is candidate and if McDonnell is chosen as VP.  

                  Three races talked about here most recently are Brown-Warren, Kerrey in Nebraska and now Maine's race.  And in the Maine race I find it interesting that bemoaning the top Dems for not getting in and then not celebrating the fact that the indie in the race is playing coy and making statements about caucusing with both sides is seen as overly negative.  I wanted Michaud over Pingree initially because I figured he had a better chance come the general.  I don't really have any problem with King's politics - but cannot celebrate the idea that what was all but a Dem lock to pick up has been thrown into chaos by man who wants to caucus with both sides and somehow that makes me a concern troll.  

                •  I'm following up with David (3+ / 0-)

                  This isn't the first user who has essentially dismissed David's warnings.

                  "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                  For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                  by tietack on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:04:59 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Where did I dismiss anything? (0+ / 0-)

                    I said I didn't see it until it was mentioned here - I usually lose track of discussions after they happen.  I said it wasn't a warning - ie the official kind you get from MB in the past (I don't know who gives them out now).  You know the ones where you have to click on them acknowledging the warning before you can post again.  

                    I read it and I addressed it.  

                    Some you you folks have a real axe to grind.  

            •  So were Palins. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ChadmanFL

              Not to mention he was a beneficiary of the Clinton economy - I'm sure any Governor in the 1990's left with high favorables.

              •  Certainly not (0+ / 0-)

                Not every governor in the 90s had high approval ratings. Off the top of my head, Minnesota's Jesse Ventura left office with atrocious approval ratings. And he and King were Independent governors during the exact same time

                •  He left office in (0+ / 0-)

                  2003

                •  Ventura left office in 2002 (0+ / 0-)

                  Which was quite a different time from the 90s; post 9/11, recession, 2000 election, etc.

                  Plus Ventura's frequently contrarian nature, which served him well running against the two parties and politics-as-usual, didn't translate so well to governing once he didn't have a huge economic boom producing budget surpluses.  Additionally, his own personality began to wear thin especially as he seemed to spend a lot of time doing other celebrity related stuff such as book tours and announcing for the XFL. (Remember that?  It lasted about a week.)

                  King may not have been a national celebrity, but he evidently wore better as governor and worked better with those in the state government.

                  36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                  by Mike in MD on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:32:19 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Ugh (4+ / 0-)

              I don't like being drawn into this, but there's nothing concern trollish about speculating that King's approvals will drop once he's actively back in politics. The OP to this thread more-or-less expressed the same sentiment.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:21:00 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Sorry <n/t> (0+ / 0-)

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:23:26 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  The man is 68 years old... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Onomastic, SaoMagnifico

        At worst we have to deal with some malarky for 6 years, but you'll thank him when we maintain committee gavels in 2012.

        •  Because (4+ / 0-)

          74 year-olds never run for re-election in the Senate.

          Sure he might be a one-termer, but i think it's a pretty big assumption.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:48:28 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A guy who spends his whole life in Maine... (0+ / 0-)

            isn't probably looking to deal with DC for 12 years. Lifers like Byrd and Strom loved the scene, but they were a rare breed - to say the least - and most people don't want to deal with the headaches, especially since he'd be a junior Senator in a legislative body that does NOTHING.

            Who knows, maybe it beats freezing his ass off and he'll stay?

            •  Using that logic (0+ / 0-)

              He never would have run in the first place.   Which to be honest was my suspicion before he announced.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:09:16 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  King was born in Virginia (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              and lived a decade in Washington DC before he returned to Maine to run for governor.

      •  Yeah, he does some awfully naive about (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, LordMike

        Congressional politics.

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:42:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Can't see king caucusing with republicans (9+ / 0-)

    He is pretty liberal, is pro choice and would just not fit in with them. My guess is Chellie was assured he would caucus with democrats if he wins , Then again control of the senate may come down to this seat so I guess he gets to be in the drivers seat if that happens.

  •  If the magistrate's lines are (0+ / 0-)

    substantially and Clarke maintains her forgotten zone of Brooklyn Height

    •  Not enough coffee (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Anyway, the bottom line is that Jeffries could do quite well against Clarke especially in the brownstone sections of the district. However, the Lopez alliance would be an issue for him.

      The magistrate will redraw the maps where "warranted" so a lot of things could change.  And of course the legislature could still step in.

  •  Can't blame King in the least... (6+ / 0-)

    ***Disclaimer***
    I'm not from Maine so I am pure blatherskyte on any comment I might make.  Worse -- I live in Illinois, which is a political world unto itself.  Maine can't possibly be THAT nuts.
    ***Disclaimer***

    With regard to choosing a caucus, King would be nuts to commit now if he doesn't have to. Given the large number of Democratic seats up for election relative to Republicans this year, hanging loose and seeing what you can get down the road seems like a pretty good strategey, and...

    the cool thing about being independent, regardless of where you caucus, is that you can still vote the issues you most care about however you damned well please. Sure, you could be tossed out of whatever caucus you're in, but that's usually not to the benefit of the caucus, so it probably won't happen.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 06:52:35 AM PST

  •  MA-Sen: Feel the fauxderate love! (4+ / 0-)

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    This is probably as subtly self-congratulatory as an endorsement can get.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:36:20 AM PST

  •  King (0+ / 0-)

    From what I'm reading, while he may not caucus with the Dems (I actually think he will, once he gets there), King definitely won't caucus with the Republicans.

    In the sea, Biscayne, there prinks
    The young emerald evening star,
    Good light for drunkards, poets, widows,
    And ladies soon to be married.

    by looty on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:36:47 AM PST

  •  Skelos is on the wacky weed again.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, pademocrat

    Just kidding.  Skelos is actually a nice guy.

    But, yes, Senator, the number is 4.  Yup, 4 seats is the number your party is going to lose to Democratic congressional candidates in November.  

    Obama is going to repeat his 2008 experience in New York, in November.  He is going to have long coattails this time around because of his incumbency, an exceedingly weak opponent, and a strong desire to put the House of Representatives back into Democratic hands.

    Likewise, in 2012, a Democrat sits in the governor's chair.  This governor has 70% favorability ratings among all voters in New York...  He will speak loud and long for the need to restore Democratic principles and principals in the nation's capital, rest assured.

    You, Senator,  will have an uphill path to climb just to contain your loses to 4 seats because there are at least 4 other congressional districts, currently held by GOP faithful, who will be challenged by Democrats, presidentially endorsed by Mr. Obama, ....who happened also to have won in those districts in 2008.  

    Truth be known, Democrats have a good chance of picking up as many as six New York congressional seats in November.  So hold tight Senator, you may be in for a bumpy ride, come election day this fall...

    The National and State Democratic parties are gonna come hard and fast at you this year because they want and need a large Democratic victory in New York.  They are determined not to be denied.  

    The Democratic leadership, and the people of New York who vote, have had enough of the outrageous lies,  rancor and bitterness that has been fostered by the Republican majority in the House these past two years.  The electorate will vote in large numbers to bring this to an end.  Just you watch.

  •  OH-02 (0+ / 0-)

    Roll Call has a good postmortem on what went wrong for Mean Jean (or rather, what she did wrong): http://www.rollcall.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:40:05 AM PST

  •  WI-Sen: Eric "Some Rich Dude" Hovde declares (0+ / 0-)

    Before we blow him off though, remember where Ron Johnson (and Herb Kohl, for that matter) came from.

    http://www.postcrescent.com/...

  •  Roll Call also has (6+ / 0-)

    a piece on why KS and NH are the laggards in redistricting: http://www.rollcall.com/...

    I thought in NH they were just lazy, but omg...

    As of this week, Reps. Frank Guinta and Charles Bass are locked in a stalemate over the single line dividing their districts, according to the New Hampshire Union Leader.
    ...seriously? they only need to move like 254 people and they're "locked in a stalemate"? I know the GOP is the party of obstructionism, but this is kind of ridiculous.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:44:31 AM PST

  •  IL-08 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    At a debate last night, Raja Krishnamoorthi went on the offensive against Tammy Duckworth:

    Krishnamoorthi said his plan is 24 pages while Duckworth’s – he brought a copy he said he printed from her Web site – is about two-and-a-half pages.

    “I would respectfully submit these are sound bites,” Krishnamoorthi said.

    He's still the underdog in the primary, but an upset cannot be ruled out.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 07:54:06 AM PST

    •  What's the difference.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat

      Most candidates have "sound bites". I'll give you an example, Chris Murphy has "sound bites" while Susan Bysiewicz has a very long and very detailed plan. Will that matter? Probably not. Krishnamoorthi should have chosen a better route, now he's headed for 2nd defeat. That's not good.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:11:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-Lt. Gov. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, pademocrat

    First, Andre Bauer...now, this guy. Where the hell do they find these people?

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:01:32 AM PST

  •  NE-Sen: life is tough, and then you endorse (3+ / 0-)

    http://nebraska.watchdog.org/...

    Nebraska Watchdog has learned that Democrat Chuck Hassebrook is dropping out of the U.S. Senate race and will endorse his fellow Democrat, Bob Kerrey.

    The state Democratic Party announced this morning that a “joint announcement regarding their campaigns” would be made by Hassebrook and Kerrey today at 10:30 a.m. at the Omaha Press Club.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:15:45 AM PST

  •  PA Voter ID (0+ / 0-)

    I didn't see this yesterday, I guess the PA Senate passed a voter ID bill.  Now it gets hashed with the House bill passed last year and they say it will be in effect by November with a dry run in April.

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 08, 2012 at 08:57:18 AM PST

  •  I think King will win in ME-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, LordMike

    and caucus with the Democrats. Unfortunately, he won't be as progressive as Pingree is.

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