Whatever Newt Gingrich does, Mitt Romney has a long slog (Joshua Lott/Reuters)
Rick Santorum's supporters
want Newt Gingrich out of the campaign, and Santorum himself
says he would win a two-man race. Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, is
saying he's not getting out—but his spokesman said Alabama and Mississippi were
must-win states, before backing off. And Mitt Romney wants them both gone, his aides
saying it would take "an act of God" for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich to win.
If Newt Gingrich stays in the race, there's no question that Romneyland's statement is true; as long as the not-Romney vote is divided, Romney can continue to grinding his way to the nomination without fear of losing. Even without Newt, Santorum wouldn't suddenly become the frontrunner, though he would at least have a plausible path.
But whatever Newt Gingrich does, the nomination battle won't be over, not even if Mitt Romney has a guaranteed path to victory. Romney might know what he needs to do in order to reach the magic number of 1,144 delegates and Romney might know that he can do it ... but he still needs to do what it takes to reach it.
As Markos pointed out yesterday, Romney probably can't secure a majority of delegates until June at the earliest, meaning he will need to keep on pandering to the hard-right Republican base for at least three more months. It's even possible he'll fall slightly short of the majority, forcing him to make a deal with one of his rival candidates to seal the nomination.
So Mitt Romney has a long slog ahead of him no matter what Newt Gingrich does. If Gingrich pulls out, Romney should still be able to win, but Rick Santorum will have a shot. If Gingrich stays in, Romney can be sure that he'll eventually win, but he'll still need to earn that victory. Either way, the outcome will probably be the same. And Mitt Romney is going to need to spend at least the next three months making it happen.