Skip to main content

WPA tourism poster
WPA tourism poster
Public Policy Polling (pdf). 3/8-11. Pennsylvania voters. MoE ±3.7%. (11-17/20 results):
Bob Casey (D): 49 (47)
Sam Rohrer (R): 34 (36)
Undecided: 17 (16)

Bob Casey (D): 49 (47)
Steve Welch (R): 29 (33)
Undecided: 22 (20)

Bob Casey (D): 49 (48)
Tom Smith (R): 31 (32)
Undecided: 20 (20)

Bob Casey (D): 49 (--)
Marc Scaringi (R): 29 (--)
Undecided: 22 (--)

Bob Casey (D): 50 (--)
David Christian (R): 32 (--)
Undecided: 18 (--)

It's becoming a familiar story: Bob Casey Jr.'s approval ratings are pretty "meh" (38/36 in Public Policy Polling's new Pennsylvania sample), but he still puts up dominant numbers in head-to-heads, thanks to strong crossover from Republicans and indies, and apparently also from liberal Dems who disapprove of him from the left but are willing to vote for him anyway. The weak field of Republicans surely contributes, too: ex-state Rep. (and '10 GOP gubernatorial primary loser) Sam Rohrer and rich guy Tom Smith (the only one who's been advertising much so far) are the best-known, and even they're only at 12/13 favorables each.

Rohrer leads the GOP primary, at 16, with 12 for Smith, 10 for tea-partying veteran David Christian (I guess "David Muslim" didn't focus-group quite as well), 8 for former Rick Santorum aide Marc Scaringi, and, in a bit of a black eye for the state's GOP establishment, their pick, rich guy (and only moderate in what's otherwise a pack of fire-breathers) Steve Welch is in last place at 5. The majority of the undecideds in the general election numbers are Republicans, so look for this race to get somewhat tighter as they come home... but with Casey already bumping up against the 50% mark, the cake's already starting to look baked.

At the presidential level (pdf), PPP finds Barack Obama looking much improved over previous Pennsylvania samples, at least vis-a-vis Mitt Romney. He leads Romney 49-42, a major improvement from the previous 45-45 tie in November. He also leads Rick Santorum... whom I hesitate to call a "favorite son" considering his disastrous 2006 re-election bid, but who is technically from Virginia Pennsylvania... by a closer 48-46, down from a 47-42 spread in November. So, with the primary season having been engaged in earnest since then, I think we're seeing a bit of Santorum rehabilitation but, even more importantly, a Romney brand-implosion. More importantly, with the Keystone State's GOP primary starting to approach, Santorum leads Romney 43-25, with 13 for Newt Gingrich and 9 for Ron Paul.

Quinnipiac is also out with a Pennsylvania poll today. They only look at the Senate race as Casey vs. a Generic R (a little late in the game to still be doing that, but whatever), and Casey wins with numbers pretty similar to PPP's: he beats G.R. 46-34, thanks to a 46/27 approval. As with PPP, they find Santorum running closer to Obama than Romney and improving his numbers (behind 45-44 this time, closer than September's 45-42), and Romney starting to tank (losing 46-40, down from 46-43 last time). They find Santorum beating Romney in the GOP primary, 36-22 (with Paul at 12 and Gingrich at 8).

Public Policy Polling (pdf). 3/8-11. North Carolina voters. MoE ±3.5%. (1-27/29 results):

Walter Dalton (D): 35 (35)
Pat McCrory (R): 46 (50)
Undecided: 19 (15)

Bob Etheridge (D): 36 (35)
Pat McCrory (R): 46 (50)
Undecided: 18 (16)

PPP's newest look at North Carolina's open gubernatorial race, on the other hand, shows a race leaning in the direction of Republican candidate (and Charlotte ex-mayor) Pat McCrory. This is a race that will get tighter, seeing that the GOPer is well-known and the bulk of the undecideds are Democrats (20-21%, as opposed to 11% of the Republicans), but where the Republican is also up thanks to a big margin among independents (48-30). (Shades of the WA-Gov race in that description too?) And, no, it's not an overly-Republican-friendly sample; the same sample has Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney by 3, 49-46, probably the best shape Obama's been in yet in the Tar Heel State.

While Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and ex-Rep. Etheridge don't seem to have suffered since PPP's poll immediately after Bev Perdue's retirement announcement (before the field was set), in fact gaining ground thanks to McCrory losing a share to "undecided," Dems' general fortunes have eroded a little bit. Generic D now trails Generic R in the governor's race 46-42, after leading 46-45. McCrory remains fairly popular (39/25 faves), while Dalton (17/15) and Etheridge (17/23) mostly seem to have the problem of unfamiliarity. I'd expect this race to pull closer in line with the generic ballot as they become better known (McCrory is still well-regarded from his close 2008 loss to Perdue and has a bit of that "next in line" thing going on), but even then, the race seems to tilt away from the Dems.

PPP also found that Bruce Blackmon loses 48-33 to McCrory, and Gardenia Healey loses 49-29 to McCrory. (No, I have no idea who they are either.) If you're objecting, "Hey! What about state Rep. Bill Faison?!?" the answer is that PPP opted to poll only four Democrats... and Faison finished in fifth place in their poll last month of the Dem primary, behind those two Some Dudes, at 2%. (So, if you're making that objection, chances are good that you actually are Bill Faison.)

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site