Inspired by the Sheyman vs. Schneider debate in today's Live Digest, I have decided to examine the state legislators representing various portions of the 10th congressional district. For Part 1, I will just look at State Senators, since there are almost twice as many state reps and I'm somewhat pressed for time today. (Illinois has 59 state senators; the target population for a senate district is about 217,000 people, although I am analyzing the 2001-2011 districts.) I want to examine several things:
1) the party of the state legislators
2) their partisan leans
3) the margin that the incumbent won by most recently
Unfortunately, as I am sketching these districts out on Dave's Redistricting App the only partisan information I have at hand is the 2008 President numbers, which are not nearly as useful as the 2010 statewide office numbers. As I am pretty busy, I don't really have the time to calculate those results (but if anyone does, I would be grateful!). Still, the President results should be able to give a rough idea of the partisan leans of these districts.
More below the fold.
State Senate
SD-26 (map)
Description: Starts in Libertyville and takes in the entire SW quadrant of Lake County. Includes a small nub of Cook County (Palatine and Barrington) and also goes into McHenry.
Incumbent: Dan Duffy (R-Lake Barrington)
2008 Obama% (estimate): 51
Last election results: 2008 - Dan Duffy (R) 62% Bill Gentes (D) 38%
Notes: The district's only partially overlaps with IL-10 - maybe about 100,000 people or so, even less. Duffy won Lake County 62-38 in 2008.
SD-29 (map)
Description: Starts in Lake Bluff. Runs down the North Shore through Lake Forest, Highland Park, and poking inland to take in Bannockburn, then continues down the shore to Glencoe. Finishes by dipping inland into Northbrook and Des Plaines.
Incumbent: Susan Garrett (D-Lake Forest)
2008 Obama % (estimate): 65
Last election results: 2008 - incumbent unopposed
Notes:
Garrett was considered the top potential Democratic recruit in IL-10.
Her district is entirely within IL-10.
Her husband is named Scott - no relation to the NJ-05 congressman I hope!
SD-30 (map)
Description: Starts in Waukegan, runs down through North Chicago to take in Vernon Hills and Lincolnshire, then pokes into Cook County (Wheeling).
Incumbent: Terry Link (D-Vernon Hills)
2008 Obama % estimate: 69
Last election results: 2008 - Terry Link (D) 65% Keith Gray (R) 35%
Notes: Entirely within IL-10.
SD-31 (map - warning, PDF and very messy - but the bottom of the page highlights the district)
Description: Northern part of Lake County. Antioch, Zion, Grayslake, Round Lake Beach.
Incumbent: Suzi Schmidt (R-Grayslake)
2008 Obama % estimate: 56
Last election results 2010 - Suzi Schmidt (R) 53% Michael Bond (D) 47%
Notes:
About 120,000 people overlapping with IL-10.
Schmidt first elected in 2010, defeating Democratic incumbent.
Schmidt appears to be pro-environment - possibly "moderate" reputation?
Part 1 Conclusion: Only four senate districts have any meaningful overlap with the new IL-10. Of those four, two districts completely overlap. None of the four senate districts are a microcosm of IL-10, politically speaking, but the closest is SD-29, represented by Susan Garrett. It is also noteworthy that prior to 2010, a Republican wave year, about 85% of IL-10 was represented by a Democrat in the Illinois Senate. Therefore, it is advised to use caution before assuming that this district is reflexively Republican at a local level.