On March 7th, Univision/ABC put out a poll of Latinos and their opinions regarding a wide range of topics, from the state of the economy, who is to blame for it, and matchups between Obama and various Republicans.
One of the biggest reasons the Republican leaders are engaging in non-stop hand-wringing over the protracted primary battle between Mitt Romney and the not-Romneys is that the more these candidates speak, the more they alienate the Latino community. The not-Romneys have pulled Mittens farther to the right than he would have liked on immigration and other issues which are important to the Latino community.
The longer the primary battle goes on, the more entrenched Latino voters' impressions become. If Mittens had sewn up the nomination by Super Tuesday, he could have pivoted, at least marginally, on several key issues, including immigration. The longer and more contentious the nomination battle is, the more Mittens is stuck with what he has said. Not that that has ever stopped him before.
In any case, regarding this Univision/ABC poll, the thing I love most about it is that it doesn't lump all Latinos together into one group. It actually breaks down the community into the categories of Cubans, Puerto Ricans, and Mexicans. It also provides a breakdown of Latinos in key states, such as Texas, Florida, and California.
In my view, one of the most, if not THE most important question asked in the poll is question number 25, which reads as follows:
There are many possible causes for our economic troubles these last years. Thinking about the last two administrations, which would you say is MOST responsible for the economy these last few years? Would you say the economic policies of George Bush or Barack Obama are more responsible?
Amazingly, a whopping 66% of those polled blame Bush for the state of the economy. Only 18% blame Obama and 9% blame both equally. Democratic Latinos blame Bush by a margin of 82% to 11%, independent Latinos blame Bush by a margin of 49% to 22%, and get this,
Republican Latinos blame Bush by a margin of 42% to 33%. As expected, Puerto Ricans and Mexicans blame Bush by huge margins - 71% to 18% and 72% to 13% respectively - while Cubans blame Obama by a margin of 42% to 25%.
Regarding the presidential matchups, Obama crushes Republican contenders among the greater Latino community. He leads Romney 67%-25% and Gingrich 70%-22%. There was no Obama-Santorum matchup in this poll. Also, Obama has a favorability rating of +47 (72% to 25%). Looking further inside the numbers, we find that Obama leads Romney 87% to 9% among Latino Democrats, 60% to 25% among Latino Independents, and trails 73% to 18% among Latino Republicans.
In the state of Florida, Obama leads Romney 50% to 40%, and he leads Gingrich 52% to 38%. In the 2008 election, Obama defeated McCain among Latinos in Florida by a margin of 57% to 42% so he is slightly behind the 2008 benchmark here. But in Texas, he is outstripping his 2008 mark by many points. He leads Romney there 66% to 18% versus 63% to 35% against McCain. If Obama were able to eclipse the 70% mark among Latinos there in 2012, the Lone Star state could potentially be in play.
But what if Mittens chooses Cuban-American Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as his running mate? As of now, this wouldn't have much of an impact as only 25% of Latinos say it would make them more likely to vote Republican as opposed to 19% who say it would make them less likely to do so. When one looks a little deeper, the numbers look even worse regarding the Rubio choice. Mexicans, for instance, say the Rubio pick would actually make them less likely to vote Republican by the small margin of 23% to 22%.
I think it's safe to say if these numbers hold up, the Republicans are screwed in November. Even if Obama gets somewhere in the neighborhood of 62% of the Latino vote nationally, it will be a steep uphill climb for the Republicans in the Western states of New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.
Here is a link to the poll: http://faculty.washington.edu/...