Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

IL-16: This seems pretty remarkable: A week after personally endorsing Adam Kinzinger in the GOP primary, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's super PAC, the YG Action Fund, is spending $50K to air a last-minute radio ad ahead of Tuesday's election. I thought Cantor's involvement in the race was pretty unusual to begin with, but to fork out actual dollars to help knock off a veteran incumbent, Don Manzullo, seems doubly so. But it also feels like a fairly smart move: If Kinzinger wins this tight, ugly race, he'll owe total loyalty to Cantor for time immemorial.


ME-Sen: Now that Thursday's major-party filing deadline has passed, the field in Maine's wide-open Senate race is all but set... and remarkably, for Democrats, we're exactly back to where we started when Olympia Snowe was still running for re-election. Team Blue's roster consists of former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap, state Sen. Cynthia Dill, state Rep. Jon Hinck and home builder Benjamin Pollard—all of whom were preparing bids before Snowe said she'd retire. The low profile of all of these candidates certainly makes it seem like the DSCC will try to support independent ex-Gov. Angus King, as rumored. But let's see how he actually fares on the campaign trail before anyone coronates him. (As an independent, King doesn't have to file until June.)

The Republican lineup is also as we expected: Secretary of State Charlie Summers, Attorney General William Schneider, Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, former state Senate president Rick Bennett, Assistant Senate Majority Leader Debra Plowman, and tea partier Scott D'Amboise. While some of these people have a bit of name rec, SoS, AG, and treasurer are not elected positions in Maine, so most start out relatively unknown. Even Poliquin and Summers, the most prominent of the bunch, were question marks for almost half of voters in PPP's poll (PDF).

MO-Sen: Well, it's definitely time to put Scott Rasmussen back in his own containment pool. Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill in the lows 40s I can believe. A schnook like Sarah Steelman, who raised less money than a Some Dude House candidate last quarter, at 51%, though? No chance, Scottie.

NY-Sen: All three Republican Senate contenders scored 25% of the vote at the state party convention on Friday afternoon, assuring each of them of a spot on the ballot. Conservative activist Wendy Long did best, winning 47%—just shy of the 50% threshold to become the party's official nominee (though I don't think, in practice, that such a designation gets you very much). As for the other two contenders, Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos took 27%, and Rep. Bob Turner barely made the cutoff with 25%. Now this trio can tear each other apart ahead of the June 26 primary, before Dem Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand steamrolls the lucky winner into oblivion.

At least one latecomer decided he didn't want any part of this mess, though: Hedge fund manager and Rye town supervisor Joe Carvin bailed shortly before the convention, even though he only announced his entry in the first place on Feb. 29. That was quick! Politicker's Colin Campbell speculates that Turner's decision to run for Senate crowded Carvin out, since the two men have some of the same consultants.

TX-Sen: Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, despite being richer than god, is only now going up with his first TV ad, reportedly just a "light buy" on Fox News. Dewhurst has a brilliant theme: Blame the baby boom generation (you know, people who vote) for the country's current fiscal crisis. Not kidding—I never kid! In this line of work, you don't need to make up ridiculous stories—they just happen on their own. See for yourself:

UT-Sen: While we can't say for sure, it seems like Sen. Orrin Hatch fared pretty well on Thursday night, when some 125,000 Republican caucus-goers met to elect 4,000 delegates to the statewide convention next month. Due to superior organizing, Hatch won all three delegates in the home precinct of former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist, his strongest rival, and also apparently enjoyed "strong support" in the caucus of his other challenger, state Rep. Chris Herrod. We won't know for certain how things went, though, until those 4,000 delegates cast their votes in April.


MD-Gov: Some Republican's gonna have to run for governor in Maryland in 2014, and Frederick County Board of Commissioners president Blaine Young says it might be him.

MT-Gov: Another amazing catch by Montana Cowgirl: Republican gubernatorial candidate Neil Livingstone literally wrote a book that included a chapter with advice on how to pick up hookers. I'm not making this up, not at all. And no, this wasn't some ironic, jokey, Colbert Report-esque pamphlet. It's for real. You'll have to click the link if you don't trust me—and even if you do, you should click the link, because it's freakin' hilarious that this guy is running for office.


CA-08: Seems like a bit of a writeup fail here, as the Barstow Desert Dispatch refers to a Republican pollster working for a candidate in the race as "an independent political consulting firm." Not so much: Blair Biggs Campaigns' client list is pure GOP, and the survey they've conducted is for Victorville Councilwoman Angela Valles, who is running for this open seat. Nevertheless, the poll finds Democrat Jackie Conaway nominally leading with 18%, while Valles and San Bernardino County Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt are tied at 15 apiece. Don't get too excited about the possibility of Team Blue winning in this hostile red district: The poll included far more Republican names than Democratic ones, so the right-leaning vote got split. Even if Conaway is lucky enough to make it past the top-two primary, winning the general would be an extremely tall order.

CA-30: Unlike Loretta Sanchez, who tried to give her backing to Howbrad Shberman, Rep. Adam Schiff does not seem confused. He's come off the fence and endorsed Rep. Howard Berman in the hotly contested CA-30 Democratic primary.

IL-13: Matt Goetten's final TV ad is one of those "compare-and-contrast" spots, in which he starts out with an attack on his Democratic primary rival, David Gill, accusing him of "lying" and smearing Goetten, and then finishes with the usual positive pablum. The production values aren't awesome, but they're at least better than what we saw in Goetten's first ad. Anyhow, you can watch at the link.

NJ-10: Newark councilman Ron Rice became the first Democrat to say he'd run to succeed the late Rep. Donald Payne, who died earlier this month. (Rice had long been preparing to challenge Payne in the primary.) He was quickly joined by a second candidate, state Sen. Nia Gill, whose name hadn't really come up in prior discussions of potential office-seekers. Whoever wins the Dem primary here will be all but guaranteed of winning in November in this dark blue district.

NY-06: So after Thursday night's craziness—when Assemblyman Rory Lancman dropped out of the race, followed just hours later by Rep. Gary Ackerman saying he would retire—Lancman is, predictably, hopping back into the Democratic field. A lot of other names say they're considering: Assemblywoman Grace Meng, City Councilman Mark Weprin, state Sen. Tony Avella (who got double-bunked in redistricting), and, believe it or not, Assemblyman David Weprin, who of course lost badly in last year's NY-09 special election. A few more Great Mentioner possibilities include 2009 city council candidate S.J. Jung, Councilman Jim Gennaro, and Councilwoman Liz Crowley. For the GOP, the options are slim, but one potential candidate is Councilman Dan Halloran.

One Democrat is taking his name off the table, though: Rep. Joe Crowley, who will, as expected, seek re-election in the redrawn 14th. That district is heavily Hispanic, though, so I suppose there was some small chance he might prefer to run in the 6th—but he only represents a tiny portion of the 6th, and what's more, it's heavily Asian. That's why it's notable that Meng, the only Asian-American legislator in the state, is looking at the seat—though of course "Asian" covers a very broad array of ethnic and national groups. (Meng is of Chinese ancestry, though she's won the support of Korean groups in the past.)

OH-02: Meow! Charlie Cook on soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Jean Schmidt's primary loss:

[S]he was apparently behind the door when God handed out the charm and gregariousness that most elected officials possess. Schmidt is an acquired taste that many in her district and on Capitol Hill never managed to acquire.
PA-12: Rep. Jason Altmire is out with a new internal poll from Anzalone Liszt, which shows him extending his lead over fellow Rep. Mark Critz in the Democratic primary. The new survey has Altmire up 55-31, whereas his January poll had him up 50-34. The primary is April 24.

Meanwhile, Critz won't appeal a judge's ruling that his Democratic primary rival, Rep. Jason Altmire, can stay on the ballot in spite of a challenge to his signatures. This was probably the right move, since the judge's decision hinged on a determination of witness credibility—not the kind of thing an appeals court likes to second-guess. But I think Critz's mistake here was not gunning harder at the trial court level when he had the chance, to try to undermine the testimony of a key petition-gatherer that Altmire's entire case depended on. In any event, now Critz just has to put his head down and hope that the unions in his corner can somehow help him overcome his sharp geographic disadvantage here.

WA-01: It seems like there's some confusion in Washington over how to handle the special election to replace Dem Rep. Jay Inslee, who is resigning later this month. State law says that the special won't take place until November, and ordinarily, there would just be a single election both for the unexpired final two months of Inslee's term and the full term starting in January. (Many states separate the two in this circumstance.) But because of redistricting, Washington likely can't hold just one election, because the old 1st District (which would apply to the stub term) has different lines than the new 1st (which would apply to the full two-year term). So officials might have to conduct two parallel elections, or they just might not fill the unexpired term at all.

Other Races:

IN-SoS: It looks like a major chapter in the long-running Charlie White saga has finally come to an end. Gov. Mitch Daniels has now appointed a replacement for the disgraced former Secretary of State: state Sen. Connie Lawson, described by the AP as a "moderate," for whatever that's worth.

WI Recall: Huge news out of Wisconsin, where GOP state Sen. Pam Galloway, who is facing a recall, has instead resigned her post. Galloway, first elected just a year and a half ago by less than 5%, cited health issues in her family. Her decision leaves the Senate evenly split between 16 Republicans and 16 Democrats, which in turn means that the two parties will now share power in the chamber and be evenly represented on committees. The recall will also still go forward, and Democrats have a strong candidate, state Rep. Donna Seidel. The GOP, on the other hand, will now have to recruit someone new. Possible options include state Reps. Jerry Petrowski and Mary Williams.

Grab Bag:

North Carolina: Thanks to PPP's relentless monthly polling, North Carolina must be the most extensively surveyed state in the nation. As per usual, Tom Jensen's out with their standard batch of sports-and-random politicians miscellany. Also this month: The Tarheel State hates Rush Limbaugh.

WATN?: Former Illinois Dem Gov. Rod Blagojevich began serving a his sentence for corruption in a Colorado federal prison on Thursday, but if you want a chilling view of what the next 14 years of his life will look like, I strongly encourage you to read Jeff Smith's piece in which he gives advice to Blago on how to survive in jail. Smith spent a year incarcerated himself, after lying to law enforcement officials investigating negative campaign materials he put out in 2004 attacking Russ Carnahan, when both were running in the Democratic primary for the open MO-03 seat. (Carnahan narrowly won.) Mostly Smith exhorts Blagojevich to be "humble," something I have a hard time seeing him capable of being.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Fun Fact on the Kinzinger Buy: (8+ / 0-)

    Either Cantor's team did no research, or they're hoping that IL-16 Dems like me will cross over and vote for Kinzinger. They're advertising on WCPT. Yes, the only liberal station in Chicago is carrying the ad for the most extremist crazy nutjob in Northern Illinois, whose opponent (Manzullo) appears to be supported by FreedomWorks and has a long track record of "mainstream" Republicon insanity.

    Alas, as of right now our county Democratic party knows of no D challenger for the House from our new district. Please, someone, step up to the plate. Whether we get the old bad R or the new bad one, either would be devastating for our district in the fall. Thanks.

  •  President Obama raised $45 million in February. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, askew, itskevin

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 05:32:28 AM PDT

    •  Better, but still weak. (0+ / 0-)

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 06:14:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Compared to 2008 it is... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, wishingwell

        But 2008 could be the anomaly.  Economy is in the shitter and folks keep hearing how billionaires will pay for campaigns, and how weak Romney is.  

        Romney raised $11M in February and almost all will be spent on defeating Santorum.  

        We just need to keep the GOP primary going as long as possible.  Illinois residents NEED to vote for Santorum tomorrow.    

        •  Remember Feb 2008? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          It was an epic contest, a real slugfest between two Democratic Party heavyweights. Motivation to give to the candidate of your choice was huge.

          Expecting fundraising for Feb 2012 to equal that is kind of silly - and frankly, just Republican spin that some of us seem to be buying.

          Obama's fundraising will pick up significantly when the general election contest has been engaged. People need to feel some threat to their candidate to start contributing fully. We're not there yet.

          Having said that, $45 million is nothing to sneeze at. That's a quarterly run rate of $135 million or so. And it will only get bigger from here.

      •  Also (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, Odysseus

        He's not really facing a competitive re-election and is campaigning against no one in particular.  I wouldn't donate to him this time around either if I were invested from 2008, simply because no further investment is needed.  

        Better off donating to specific house/senate/state legislative races.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 06:24:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  it's not Obama I'm worried about in 2012! (0+ / 0-)

      wondering if he can break the elephants back himself or if a lot of that is going to waste.  

    •  Half as many max donors as this point in 2008. NT (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
  •  NY-06: Grace Meng is the official nominee now. (4+ / 0-)

    Rory Lancman has already made it clear he's running. There are rumors that Elizabeth Crowley is running as well. Going against her cousins wishes.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 06:28:04 AM PDT

  •  Poll: Lugar in battle to retain Senate Seat (11+ / 0-)


    The Global Strategy Group (D) polls shows Lugar down to a six point lead, 45 - 39 [over the tea party candidate], and blow the 50 mark, a sign of trouble for an incumbent.
    Never heard of this group so take it for what its worth.
  •  IN Sen: Lugar in trouble? (7+ / 0-)

    TPM is reporting an internal poll conducted by The Global Strategy Group for  Dem Senate Candidate Rep. Joe Donnelly which claims Lugar is leading State Treasurer Richard Mourdock by on ly 6 points, 45 - 39, polling below the 50% mark.

    Hope springs eternal, Donnelly could have a chance against Murdock.

    I'll believe corporations are people when Texas executes one!

    by Dave in AZ on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 06:49:14 AM PDT

    •  That says to me "we can win if Lugar loses" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dave in AZ, bythesea

      I don't find it to be exceptionally hopeful, to be honest.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:06:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Discclosure: I'm an enternal optimist (0+ / 0-)

        Murdock is running so hard to the right of Lugar he will turn off Independent voters. And Donnelly is pretty moderate. There is a opportunity/possibility is all I'm saying.

        I'll believe corporations are people when Texas executes one!

        by Dave in AZ on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:15:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think there's an excellent chance (6+ / 0-)

          the Dems cherrypick the seat if Lugar goes down...

          I doubt Obama can win Indiana again, but I think he can turbocharge NW Indiana turnout, which also happens to be Donnelly's home turf.

          My hope is that the Presidential campaign has time and resources to spare to do some coattail campaigning...  As a fairly blue doggish Dem -- I wouldn't expect Obama and Donnelly to necessarily campaign together, but Obama working some key Dem strongholds (Indy, South Bend, Gary) to juice turnout could pay extraordinary dividends for Donnelly.

          Full Disclosure: I am an unpaid shill for every paranoid delusion that lurks under your bed - but more than willing to cash any checks sent my way

          by zonk on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:38:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  a previous Donnelly internal had Obama (0+ / 0-)

            trailing Romney by only four.  He may be able to win, or come close enough to push Donnelly over the finish line.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 12:46:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  As someone who lives in IL-16 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in AZ, stevenaxelrod

    it appears this will be a close race between Kinzinger and Manzullo.  Kinzinger's ads started about about 3 weeks before Manzullo even had an ad out.  People are struggling here, unemployment is much higher than the national average and there just isn't alot to look forward to.  Our forclosure rate has been high.  Kinzinger a young good looking guy who comes across in ads as very competent until you listen to his slams against Manzullo.  His biggest beef against Manzullo is that he voted for cars for clunkers, which happened to be a very popular program here.  Santorum is also here today at the Venitian Club, for anyone in the area.  I asked this morning if I could go (I'm at work), they all knew I wanted to ask lady bits questions and they smiled and shook their heads.  Romney was here yesterday and they had Ron Paul signs and Obama signs outside the venue.  Of course our news didn't show how many protesters there actually were, they said a few, my guess is more likely a couple of hundred and probably more than he entertained at his venue.  If anyone was actually there I'd love to know.

    The first thing lost in war is truth.

    by KatHart on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:09:09 AM PDT

    •  I'd love to see Manzullo beat Kinzinger (5+ / 0-)

      I'm not clear in which would be the weaker candidate against the Dem nominee in the fall, but a Kinzinger loss sure would Cantor look stupid (more stupid than he already is).

      I'll believe corporations are people when Texas executes one!

      by Dave in AZ on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:18:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (4+ / 0-)

        I was torn because Kinzinger might cast non-insane votes from time to time, but a loss would tarnish his rising star and could help prevent a statewide run.  However, staying in the House could force him to cast some unpopular votes that would come back to haunt him.

        But now?  It's easy. Screw Cantor.

        NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

        by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:22:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is there is no (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod, Calamity Jean

        Democratic challenger.  They will have to be caucused in if there is someone actually running.  We might have a chance with a democratic challenger due mainly to what has happened in Wisconsin.  

        The first thing lost in war is truth.

        by KatHart on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:26:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  IINM there is no Dem nominee in the fall. (0+ / 0-)

        But that is just what I heard. Didn't do any real legwork...

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:34:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You are correct. Here is a (0+ / 0-)

          link to our sample ballot if anyone is interested.  Read it an weep, sad but true.

          The first thing lost in war is truth.

          by KatHart on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:39:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is there any way to get a replacement? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I know Dems were able to replace people on the ticket when they dropped out after getting the nomination, but that's a different situation than no one running in the first place...

            29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

            by Marcus Graly on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:17:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The Democratic Party still (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Marcus Graly, Odysseus

              has the ability to caucus people onto the ballot.  For IL-16 I don't believe they will, unless with the change in district lines someone will come forward from the Kinzinger area.  This is a very odd area.  The city of Rockford has an Independant Mayor, Republicans and Democrats in the State house and Senate and they voted for Obama in 2008.  City Alderman are split by  wards.  Where I live on the other hand, which is a mostly rural area, is just plain red all over.  We have a joke that in the town I live in Democrats can only come out at night.  We are still looking for recruits for the local elections to caucus onto the ballot.  

              The first thing lost in war is truth.

              by KatHart on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:45:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  NY-25 Louise Slaughter gets a tough challenge (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bobby Big Wheel, stevenaxelrod

    Monroe County Executive is announcing on 3/19 that she will challenge Slaughter in the newly redrawn NY-25. This should be expected to be a tough fight for Louise and could go either way. Brooks is incredibly popular with the GOP base and the local Democratic Party has atrophied.

    Given Slaughter's fundraising, this could be a potential retirement. Certainly one to watch. Brooks should be a focus of our efforts to defeat.


    •  Intriguing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      It's still a blue seat but Slaughter was petrified of a challenge from Brooks, which is why she wanted a tendril reaching down to Ithaca.  It'll be interesting if Brooks's local popularity can trump the unpopularity of the national party in the area.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:16:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She's Teflon (0+ / 0-)

        ...and she hasn't been vocal on national issues. Right now, she's a bit of a blank slate. Certainly conservative from a fiscal standpoint and rails against Albany Dems. However, she has no standing on the social issues and such.

        •  She'll have to come off as a liberal Republican (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits, stevenaxelrod

          if she wants anything better than a remote chance of victory.  She chose the wrong year to run as the Presidential race will run up Dem numbers.

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:57:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Without knowing much about her (4+ / 0-)

        Brooks sounds like the ideal Republican nominee for this seat, but Republicans haven't done well with winning seats like this, as various people pointed out yesterday--even after 2010.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:44:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Other than IL10 (which has an inflated PVI because of the Obama homestate effect) I don't think the GOP won any seats this Democratic in 2010.  However, it's been so long since Slaughter had a tough race I hope she doesn't have a glass jaw.  We don't want to be Gekased.

          NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

          by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:52:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, Hinchey for example. (0+ / 0-)

          He's in a D+6 district too (59/40).  In 2010, everything that could go wrong with his campaign happened (he had an altercation with a reporter, campaign was ho-hum, and Ed Koch endorsed the Republican because the Republican promised to back Israel on everything without question) and yet he still won 52.5%-47.5%.

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:20:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's Likely D. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      She's only giving Democrats a pickup opportunity for her position as Monroe County Executive.  Besides, this is Slaughter's base of support.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:56:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why the heck do you think it could go either way? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      It's 59/40 Obama and D+6.  It excludes some of Rochester's southern suburbs too so it is more Dem than the county as a whole.  It would be Lean D  if open, Likely D if occupied.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:01:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're not worrying enough :-) <n/t> (0+ / 0-)

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:05:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What is your opinion? (0+ / 0-)

          Monroe County votes Dem for federal races, but R more locally.  It's like Onondaga County that way.

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:07:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Local office and other offices are different (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      Being elected county executive is based on local issues and people are more willing to vote for the opposition party based on those issues. Popular at that level doesn't necessarily translate into anything else.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:33:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ras Missouri: Both Romney and Santorum by 9 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn. And HBO can kiss my ass for cancelling Luck.

    by Paleo on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 07:43:33 AM PDT

  •  NJ-10 (0+ / 0-)

    Why isn't Cory Booker getting any love from the great mentioner for this seat? He would seem a reasonable fit and a very strong candidate.


  •  Why are Dems polling IN Senate R primary? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, bythesea, James Allen

    Are they trying to further feed the prediction that Lugar goes down, making Donnelly viable to win?

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 08:22:21 AM PDT

  •  Heard an Super-Pac ad for Kinzinger... (0+ / 0-)

    On WCPT (I listen on the internet to Stephanie Miller a few times a week). If they're buying on a talk station with a progressive lineup like WCPT, they must be trying to smother the airwaves. Otherwise, I can't think of a more pointless ad buy--how many GOP owners are listening to a station that broadcasts Miller, Thom Hartmann and Ed Schultz?

    Two things are universal--hydrogen and stupidity. --Frank Zappa

    by AustinCynic on Mon Mar 19, 2012 at 09:34:34 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site