On the eve of the Illinois primary, weekend polling (to say nothing of the disastrous Santorum collapse in the Puerto Rico primary) seemed to suck a little bit of the intrigue out of the GOP presidential contest tomorrow night. While Mitt Romney has led in every poll in Illinois of recent vintage, it now looks like his lead has crept into double digits.
I will, having been burned about 25 times to this date, resist the temptation to speculate on whether this is the beginning of the end of the Republican contest.
GOP PRIMARY POLLS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 35, Santorum 29, Gingrich 13, Paul 10
ILLINOIS (American Research Group): Romney 44, Santorum 30, Gingrich 13, Paul 8
ILLINOIS (PPP): Romney 45, Santorum 30, Gingrich 12, Paul 10
GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46); Obama d. Santorum (49-43); Obama d. Paul (48-38); Obama d. Gingrich (50-40)
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (50-41); Santorum d. Obama (51-42)
A few thoughts about tomorrow ... and beyond ... after the jump.
Unlike last week, when ARG (!) put itself on an island (and got embarrassed) by calling a distant third-place finish for Rick Santorum in Mississippi, this time around their numbers are right in line with those of PPP. This falls right in line with the slight widening of the Romney lead last week, and sets pretty fair expectations on the fact that Mitt Romney will win Illinois tomorrow, and almost certainly will do so by double digits.
Looking ahead on the primary schedule, things get a bit more equivocal. Louisiana is up next on Saturday. This would seem to be a state teed up for Santorum. As such, it is a pretty good test for how badly his campaign has shot itself in the foot over the past few days with the Puerto Rico debacle and a pending sound beating in Illinois. While he should still win it, it might be a bit less certain than it was before.
Then, two weeks from tomorrow, comes an interesting twin bill in the form of Wisconsin and Maryland. Polling earlier in the year favored Santorum in the Badger State. But given how he ultimately coughed up narrow losses in Michigan, Ohio, and looks to add another one to the pile in Illinois, is it fair to call the Midwest a "strong region" for him, at this point? There's a state starving for new data, as is Maryland, which strikes me as a tough state to forecast.
President Obama, meanwhile, keeps stockpiling resources, and awaiting his opponent. For those mildly amused by the roller coaster that is the Rasmussen tracker, it is back to all square after being either Romney +6 or Obama +6 at various points over the past ten days or so. It has gone from Obama +6 to even in just two days.
In that same two day period, Barack Obama's job approval, according to Gallup, has gone from underwater (43/50), to a net positive (49/44). Makes you think somebody is mucking it up here, doesn't it?!