Introduction:
I believe unfortunately we are near the end of the road when it comes to this Republican Primary process. Hopefully the polls will be wrong and Santorum will be able to hold up decently and win a sizable number of delegates in Illinois but if PPP and ARG are right, that will not happen. If Santorum does collapse in Illinois we will have enough information to know that Romney will ultimately get over 1144 and thus clinch the nomination.
Illinois
Illinois has 12 at large delegate which should be fairly certain for Romney as he will win statewide. Illinois also has 18 congressional districts awarding 3 delegate a piece. Given Romney’s strength and some delegate error’s by Santorum. Romney is almost certain to win 10 districts, with another two also likely falling into his lap.
These 12 districts are the
1st,2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th. [with the 1st and 3rd being in theory in play].
This leaves Santorum with a chance in the
12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th.
If in the end Romney and Santorum split these six districts as PPP would seem to suggest[or could be even worse] This will net Romney a very large delegate win of 48. Even if Santorum were to hold all six he could win, he would still lose by 30 delegates here. This math on its own would be very bad.
The future.
Compounding the problem is what this says about the upcoming contests in Wisconsin and then New York . To keep Romney under 1144, Santorum needs to win Wisconsin and most of its Congressional district. After that performance. Santorum also needs to keep Romney under 50% in New York and win a respectable [at least 5, probably close to 10] districts in New York . Illinois as currently modeled would suggest relatively strongly that will not happen.
While Louisiana could interceded to Santorum’s benefit.[Although MS and AL were close enough that Louisiana, could go Romney and really end the thing]
Louisiana alone will not be enough to change the Wisconsin trajectory. Without Wisconsin, April 3rd is a disaster for Santorum.[Dropping D.C. and Maryland also] With April 3rd a disaster April 24th is also a disaster[in addition to very small delegate take in NY, Santorum would also be at high risk of losing every state besides Pennsylvania, and that win might be hallow because of delegate problems.] After the 24th, Romney would be nearly certain to reach 1144 at some point. With that fact combined with no real wins for two months[except home state], and sense of impending doom. Indiana and North Carolina on May 8th would likely put Santorum out his misery, and usher in Romney.