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8:35 AM PT: FL-Sen: Too bad: Republican dirty trickster Roger Stone won't run for Senate after all (not that I ever imagined he would). Stone agrees that his absence from the race is unfortunate, saying: "Pity. Would have been spirited campaign. I would have run anti-war, pro-marijuana, pro-small gov't., anti-tax, pro-personal freedom campaign."

8:43 AM PT: MA-Sen: This is why I told you all to vote for Massachusetts in PPP's "where should we poll?" poll last week: Their brand-new survey has Elizabeth Warren leading Scott Brown by 46-41. We'll have a full post shortly.

9:00 AM PT: AZ-St. Sen: He's ba-ack: Former state Sen. Russell Pearce, who was rather notoriously recalled last year, will make a comeback bid this year—but in a different district. So that means he won't face Jerry Lewis, the guy who turfed him, but he may wind up running against another fellow Republican, state Sen. Rich Crandall (who happens to be a political opponent of Pearce's).

9:10 AM PT: ND-Sen: This is pretty funny, and a great catch by the eagle eyes at North Decoder: In GOP Rep. Rick Berg's newest ad, one of his purported "man-on-the-street" supporters actually turns out to be the husband of a staffer, Berg's constituent services director. Berg really didn't need any more self-inflicted wounds on the paid media front: He's previously been busted for using cheesy stock photos of senior citizens to stand in for constituents in his mailers, and for virtually copying a television ad from a former Virginia legislator.

9:19 AM PT: NY-17: It sounds like hedge fund manager Joe Carvin is moving quickly: A day after he was rumored to be interested in a run against Dem Rep. Nita Lowey, a local GOP official says Carvin is "definitely in," and the Republican who had already been running, Mark Rosen, is dropping out.

10:04 AM PT: VA-Sen: Pretty much every time a poll comes out of the Virginia Senate race, it's tempting to merely point out the obvious and say, "Yet another survey showing a neck-and-neck race!" But actually, if you look at all the polling, Democrat Tim Kaine has been on top more often than not. Sure, the leads have been narrow, but wouldn't you rather be the guy who consistently is up by a few rather than down by a few? And if you click that second link, you'll also see that Roanoke College appears to have some quality control issues (+13 R, followed by +3 R, then +8 R). If you dial them out, then George Allen has only ever led three times. And today's new Quinnipiac numbers are in the same vein: Kaine is up 47-44, and just as importantly, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-42, his widest margin to date.

10:13 AM PT: WA-06: Yet another Democrat is deferring to the now-undisputed frontrunner: Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland won't run for Rep. Norm Dicks' open seat and will instead endorse state Sen. Derek Kilmer. One of the last remaining Dem names we're waiting to hear from is state Sen. Tim Sheldon. If he bows out, then Kilmer should have a clear shot at the nomination, and given the weak GOP field, he'll also be the heavy favorite in November.

11:01 AM PT: NY-09: Shortest hypothetical campaign ever? One moment, Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz was rumored to be interested in taking on Rep. Yvette Clarke in the Democratic primary in the redrawn 9th; the very next, he said ge had "strongly considered" the race but won't pull the trigger. This would likely have been a pretty wild contest, given that this district is majority-black and Markowitz is white—especially if you recall the kind of attacks hurled at David Yassky in the 2006 primary when this seat was open. But like Yassky (who nearly won), Markowitz might have benefited from a split field, since attorney Sylvia Kinard (who, like Clarke, is black) is also running. Now, though, we'll see if Kinard has the chops to take down Clarke in a one-on-one contest.

11:04 AM PT: UT-03: Democratic Salt Lake City Council Chair Søren Simonsen is clearly unafraid of the daunting demographics presented by Utah's 3rd Congressional District: He says he'll run against GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz this fall. He gets props for courage, and also for the slashed o in his first name.

11:07 AM PT: MO-Sen: The Hill's Josh Lederman reports that Republican state Auditor Tom Schweich will not run for Senate, which would dash GOP hopes of finding a savior candidate. However, Schweich had also been considering a run for governor, so I wonder if he might still pursue those plans.

11:34 AM PT: ME-Sen: You know you're doing something wrong when both Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman agree with each other—and not you. The Senate's two current independents both say what everyone else has said: There's no way Angus King can avoid caucusing with a political party if he's elected to succeed Olympia Snowe. Says Sanders: "I am on five important committees and that is important to me. I honestly don't know how it is possible (not to caucus with a party). I just don't know how you do it otherwise." No kidding.

King keeps sounding like someone who refuses to understand basic Senate procedure, though, saying once again that he wants "to caucus with either side on an issue-by-issue basis." It's like he thinks "caucus with" means "vote with," when in fact it means, "get committee assignments from." There does, however, finally seem to be glimmer of recognition from King that he'll have to give up his delusions: for the first time, he's said that a refusal to caucus "may not be possible." There's no "may" about it.

11:49 AM PT: NM-01: Albuquerque city councilor Dan Lewis unexpectedly dropped out of the GOP primary on Tuesday, just a couple of days after saying he'd stay in the race. Lewis hadn't raised a ton ($220K), but that was almost three times as much former Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones's haul so far ($80K)—and now she becomes the probable frontrunner for the Republican nod, though notably, Lewis declined to endorse her. Retired Army Sgt. Gary Smith is also still in the contest, and while Arnold-Jones undoubtedly has greater name rec, Smith has actually outraised her, too. Indeed, Arnold-Jones doesn't exactly cut a formidable profile (she took just 3% in the 2010 gubernatorial primary), so Lewis's departure is definitely good news for Democrats.

12:01 PM PT: NY-22: Great news: Longtime Maurice Hinchey aide Dan Lamb will still run in the 22nd District... which means he'll go up against GOP freshman Richard Hanna! Lamb had explored a bid in the Hinchey's old 22nd, but his boss's seat got dismantled in redistricting. I would have expected Lamb to land in the 23rd, since his hometown of Freeville got moved into that district. But as Lamb notes in his announcement press release, he runs Hinchey's Binghamton district office, which is located in the 22nd. In any event, this move gives Democrats legitimate challengers to every single Republican in the state except for Peter King in the new 2nd—but even he might draw stiff opposition if Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice gets in.

12:19 PM PT: Looks like Tom Schweich is ruling out a gubernatorial run, too. In a statement, he says: "Instead, I determined that it would be best to fulfill my term as I previously indicated I would."

12:51 PM PT: NY-18, NY-19: A couple of stories from the Hudson Valley, where local Democratic parties are busy making endorsements. In NY-18, the Orange County Dems gave their backing to physician Rich Becker, who took two-thirds of the weighted vote over a crowded field. Wappingers Falls Mayor Matt Alexander got 19% and Tuxedo Park Mayor Tom Wilson 15%. Newcomer Sean Maloney won no votes. (About 52% of population of the redrawn 18th lives in Orange, by far the largest county in the district.)

And one county up the river in NY-19, Ulster Democrats endorsed attorney Julian Schreibman over Dutchess County Legislator Joel Tyner by 4-to-1. (A quarter of the new 19th is comprised of Ulster, again, the biggest county in the district.) Tyner says he plans to forge on to the primary, though he's been running since last August and has yet to file a single fundraising report.

1:11 PM PT: NY-Sen: As expected, the New York Conservative Party has given its backing to activist Wendy Long, which means that Democrats should root for anyone but her to win the GOP primary. If George Maragos or Bob Turner is the Republican nominee but Long remains on the Conservative line, then the right-wing vote will be split, making Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's life that much easier. (In related no-surprise news, she also once again picked up the backing of the Working Families Party.)

1:31 PM PT: MO-Sen: Free-spending businessman John Brunner is back on the airwaves with a new ad (reportedly backed by a $100 buy) touting his alleged job creation abilities—sort of a remarkable thing, given that his family's company, Vi-Jon, laid off workers the very same month Brunner entered the Senate race. The spot also features a really cheesy effect at about 15 seconds in—you can watch it at the link.

1:40 PM PT: I would encourage everyone to vote for Nebraska in PPP's newest "where should we poll?" poll.

1:44 PM PT: PA-12: At this point, these "union endorses Mark Critz" stories have gotten very repetitive, and it would be much bigger news if a labor group endorsed his Democratic primary rival, Jason Altmire. But this one is a bit different: The Beaver-Lawrence Central Labor Council just gave their backing to Critz, even though they're located in Altmire's part of the district. This sort of thing is probably Critz's best hope for blunting Altmires 2-to-1 geographic advantage.

1:55 PM PT: RI-Gov: Longtime former state Auditor General Ernest Almonte says he's "seriously considering" a gubernatorial bid in 2014. The Providence Journal says that he would "most likely run as a Democrat."

1:58 PM PT: SC Redistricting: The plaintiffs who unsuccessfully challenged South Carolina's new congressional map say they will appeal to the Supreme Court. The SCOTUS is obligated to rule on the case, but they don't have to conduct oral arguments or even issue a written opinion. If the Supremos are feeling even lazier than usual, they can just issue what's known as a "summary affirmance," which gives a thumbs-up to the lower court's ruling without any explanation.

2:05 PM PT: VA-Sen: How does George Allen think he can get away with this? The Republican ex-senator is simply refusing to take a position on Virginia's super-controversial new law which requires women seeking an abortion to first undergo an abdominal ultrasound. As GOP ex-Rep. Tom Davis says: "By refusing to say where you are, you almost get saddled with it anyway." You also look like a toolbag who's afraid to confront serious issues.

2:32 PM PT: PA-18: I guess Rep. Tim Murphy's just playing it safe: Even though he has an absurd fundraising edge and a huge lead in his own polling over former congressional staffer Evan Feinberg, he's going on the air with an ad railing against Obamacare (which you can watch at the link). It sounds like a small buy, though: It's only airing on Fox News. The primary is on April 24.

2:47 PM PT: NV-Sen: Rasmussen: Dean Heller (R-inc): 47, Shelley Berkeley (D): 40

3:04 PM PT: NV-St. Sen: The Las Vegas Sun's Anjeanette Damon has a good roundup of this year's key legislative races in Nevada, where Democrats have just a one-vote majority in the Senate and where control of the chamber is very much up-for-grabs.

4:12 PM PT: As promised, our full writeup of PPP's new MA-Sen poll.

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Comment Preferences

  •  MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren Leads 46-41! (18+ / 0-)

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:36:25 AM PDT

    •  But Rasmussen! But Rasmussen! (6+ / 0-)

      Seriously I was skeptical of the Brown surge all along. I would love to see more numbers, but PPP is by far the most trustworthy, and I am very inclined to believe them, not just because the result is awesome.

      •  Rasmussen was within 5 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        A couple others were wider margins. The reaction to any polling on this race is getting a little silly.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:50:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  An analysis of MA-Sen polling...... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Looking at the Real Clear list, 2 of the 3 recent public polls that had Brown on top, Suffolk and Rasmussen, were polling the race for the first time and had no trendlines.  Rasmussen of course isn't a valid pollster at all since it has chronic and notorious inaccurate GOP biases in their numbers.  The 3rd, Western NE University, went from Brown up 47-42 in the fall to 49-41 this last time, so only margin-of-error movement in Brown's favor.  A 4th poll I believe was a leaked private poll, by MassInsight/Opinion Dynamics, and had Brown up 9 but again had no public trendline.

          Meanwhile, we have to the contrary 2 polls this year, PPP and the WBUR/MassInc poll, showing Warren up, both with a favorable trendline.

          Finally, we have Dave Catanese having reported back in February that after the Suffolk poll, even GOP insiders conceded their side's own private polling showed a margin-of-error race.  Reporting since then suggests the conventional wisdom has shifted in Brown's favor, but doesn't reveal if that's based on any further private polling.

          The short of it is that the polling is very mixed now, and this PPP poll makes clear the Massachusetts electorate is very unsettled and very much in play.

          PPP is a strong enough pollster in its own right, and the number of polls for the race few enough, that today's news is enough to again call the race a tossup, not lean R, for anyone who had it lean R.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:08:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  To the contrary, today's poll confirms a settled (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            electorate.  PPP's poll shows almost no change.

            The electorate is not unsettled.  The polls disagree.  Either one group is right and the other is wrong, or vice versa.  That is it.

            It's a bad conclusion to look at these polls and then run a campaign thinking the electorate is unsettled.  If someone was running a campaign from eithr side, they should conclude MA is a fairly settled electorate now, and that their candidate is either ahead or behind.

            A similarly settled electorate is the VA Senate race.
            An unsetted electorate is the GOP Prez race.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:16:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  And the stupid narrative dies (9+ / 0-)

      I'm 80% confident Warren has actually had a consistent single digit lead since November. But people love to tell stories with bad polling.

    •  PPP twitter feed has other poll data from MA (7+ / 0-)

      http://twitter.com/...

      Harvard is popular, so it's kind of dumb for them to attack her for teaching there unless they're pandering to the anti-intellectual crowd.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:47:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd sort of like to see an analysis of MA voting (4+ / 0-)

        patterns. Obviously, the state is wicked blue. But how much of that is based on Volvo-driving latte-sipping effets college town lefties, and how much is based on racist working-class ethnic types*? Seems like there's a lot of both. But if all of the latter started voting Republican, would MA still be a blue state based on the former?

        (*crude stereotypes = jokes!)

        •  No (0+ / 0-)

          If Blue Collar voters flipped then MA would be overwhelming Republican. Even as a very liberal state it's still a 65/35 D/R split so it wouldn't withstand half of it's Democrats (Gloucester to Lowell to Worcester to Plymouth) voters changing sides.

          (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

          by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:26:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not sure about overwhelmingly (0+ / 0-)

            Republican. It would probably look like the 2010 Senate race I think.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:40:01 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Blue Collar% of D Voters in MA (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Chachy, bumiputera

              I guess it depends on your definition of overwhelmingly and the the percentage of Democratic voters in MA that are Blue Collar. Since this is a hypothetical I can estimate without feeling guilty that I'm pulling this out of my ass but I'd think something like half of MA Democratic voters are blue collar.

              The Gloucester-Lowell-Worcester-Plymouth semi-circle around the Boston beltway seems to be overwhelmingly blue collar Democrats and historically the exurbs tend to have major race issues because many of the exurbs residents left when the major city stated getting darker and especially after race wars. Being from MI I can point to the large anti-Obama contingency of Democrats from the Detroit suburbs (especially parts of Dingell's district especially the Eastern half). It's also not surprising that Obama did the worse amongst Republicans in the Detroit suburbs too (compared to doing surprisingly well in the Western CDs and the UP).

              Anyway.... back to MA. If these communities flipped Republican (which they won't because they would have by now, they might vote Republican on occasion but they are still overwhelmingly registered as Dems) it'd be disastrous to Dems in MA. In 2010 we saw what happens when SOME of these voters vote Republican. However, Coakley still won Worcester and while she lost the vast majority of this area she still got between 35%-40% from these areas. If that percentage dropped lower to the 20-30% common in more Republican areas of MA then I'd imagine the Republicans would win by a lot more than Brown did. Brown won 52/48 if that increased to 60/40 you'd be in Alaska territory.

              (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

              by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:09:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well going by the Census definition (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                The Caped Composer, bumiputera

                MA as a whole is less than 20% blue collar. So I doubt 50% of all Dems are. Remember, MA has the highest percentage of college grads in the nation, so while it's always stereotyped as a very working-class Irish area (next stop: Pahk Street!) that's not 100% true, especially in the Boston area.

                Also you have to remember that due to Hispanic growth (Cape Verdean, Azorean, Brazilian, etc.) the voting power of blue-collar white voters in urban centers like Worcester is starting to wane. Look at the non-Hispanic white %s for the following cities:

                Springfield: 36%
                Worcester: 60%
                Lowell: 53%
                Lynn: 48%
                Quincy: 66%
                Brockton: 43%
                Fall River: 83%
                New Bedford: 68%

                This in a state which is about 3/4 white...so all of these cities except Fall River are less white than the state as a whole, and only getting less so. Then consider that many of the Hispanic people in these cities (Asian people in Quincy's case) aren't citizens, and their children are too young to vote. When that changes...

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 04:18:00 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Blue Collar vs. "Blue Collar" (0+ / 0-)

                  I think the census definition is completely wrong on what is and isn't blue collar but that's a completely different point. Based on the census data you are right. Also, I think people want to seem white collar (sexy term right now) and they try and fit themselves into this category so the data is wrong but that's also more or less meaningless for the data.

                  This was purely hypothetical so I was just making up numbers as I said earlier.

                  Still a 20% swing would be huge in any state.

                  BTW, how did the census count retirees that were Blue Collar workers 10-20 years ago? I wonder if they got included as blue collar or not. That would significantly increase the blue collar % since white collar jobs are mostly newish meaning retirees are overwhelmingly blue collar.

                  (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                  by kman23 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 11:35:10 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  It looks like Scott Brown's vote (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ChadmanFL, TofG

      for the Blunt amendment is finally having an effect.

      23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

      by lordpet8 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:01:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt we can say for sure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kman23

        When Brown was up, people said that was the contraception issue too.  Also, it's apples and oranges.  PPP hasn't polled the race since September, when Warren was up by 2, "46-44".

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:36:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Why Would It (0+ / 0-)

        Is there anyone in MA who is strongly pro-choice (and vote with that issue in mind) who was considering Brown? I doubt it. Instead the Blunt amendment just makes Brown look more appealing to anti-choice Democrats and Indy's who might like Brown but aren't in his corner yet. I think the Blunt amendment won't hurt Brown and it fact have done the opposite.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

        by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:29:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You don't need to be strongly (5+ / 0-)

          pro-choice to be disgusted by the war on women. And I'm sure plenty of pro-choice women were duped by Brown's moderate shtick. Anti-choice Dems were probably in his corner already (IIRC he did well in areas of Boston like West Roxbury and Southie in 2010).

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:41:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Brown (0+ / 0-)

            Is there a war against women from the right,?Yes. Is the Blunt Amendment part of this effort? Yes. But does a vote for the Blunt Amendment equate to supporting the war on women? It depends. People that see that answer as a yes never would vote for Brown in 2012. So Brown voting for the Blunt amendment probably doesn't hurt him among undecided voters in MA. People that hate the Blunt Amendment already have chosen a side.

            In addition, I think there are some anti-choice Democrats (I agree anti-choice Independents already support Brown) in MA that are undecided. They probably like the Blunt Amendment and thus like this vote. If he doesn't lose anything except galvanizing a bit more the Democratic base in MA which is already galvanized and he gains support from anti-choice Democrat then this vote is a net positive (in terms of the election). I'd bet that at minimum about 15% of the Democratic vote in MA is from anti-choice Democrats so it's not an insignificant portion of MA voters.

            (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

            by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:04:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  So (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, ChadmanFL, bythesea, askew

              you don't think that Issue 2 in Ohio, for instance, pushed undecided voters against John Kasich?

              I'm also curious as to why you don't think he already (mostly) has anti-choice Dems locked down - pretty sure those areas of Boston that I mentioned have a D registration advantage.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:20:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Issue 2 is very different (0+ / 0-)

                Issue 2 hurt Kaisch because he pissed off parts of his voting base.There are plenty of pro-labor Independents and Republicans in the midwest (being from SE Michigan I feel like I can say that without needing to provide a link). Many labor Republicans/Independents voted for Kaisch in 2010. His stance on Issue 2 pissed them off.

                The Blunt Amendment doesn't hurt Brown because it doesn't piss off anti-choice Democrats. It attracts them to Brown. Brown's not disagreeing with a large part of the coalition he needed to win in 2010 unlike Kaisch.

                Now it could hypothetically alienate Brown with pro-choice Republicans but 1) I don't know how many pro-choice Republicans still exist (although I assume there are more in MA than most other states) and 2) I don't think pro-choice Republicans would flip to Warren because they disagree with Brown's position on Blunt. Almost every Republican they've voted for recently probably is an anti-choice Republican and they still consider themselves Republicans despite being pro-choice meaning this issue either isn't a major issue when they vote or they think that the commonalities they have with Brown outweigh their disagreement on abortion.

                (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:37:51 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  So (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ChadmanFL, bythesea, askew

                  you don't think the Blunt Amendment will piss of independent or Democratic women at all? I'm not really getting the double standard here.

                  21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:39:21 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Did I say that? (0+ / 0-)

                    Are you willfully trying to distort my position? I never said that at all.

                    How many strongly pro-choice voters are in MA that seriously considering voting Brown before the Blunt Amendment.

                    I doubt there was one. When Brown voted for Blunt he surely pissed off tons of pro-choice voters who already knew they were 100% going to vote Warren because no strongly pro-choice MA voter could possibly still have undecided how to vote in 2012.

                    (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                    by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:43:52 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Missed a word (0+ / 0-)

                      I doubt there was one. When Brown voted for Blunt he surely pissed off tons of pro-choice voters who already knew they were 100% going to vote Warren because no strongly pro-choice MA voter could possibly still have undecided ON how to vote in 2012.

                      (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                      by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:45:16 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

                      Of course you aren't trying to distort my postion. That's absurd of me to suggest that. Clearly I'm not explaining this well. I apologize.

                      (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                      by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:51:41 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  It's ok (0+ / 0-)

                        I'm not trying to push your buttons, and I'm not trying to be a head-in-the-sand optimist. I just legitimately don't think that the Blunt amendment helped Brown more than it hurt him.

                        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                        by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:54:41 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  My View (0+ / 0-)

                          I guess I just don't see how anyone could both still be neutral for the 2012 MA Senate race and deeply care about women's rights and the ultimate insider issue/vote on the Blunt Amendment. Non-political individuals who could still be fooled about Brown don't have a strong opinion on the Blunt Amendment because the Blunt Amendment received so little coverage outside of political circles that it's become an insider issue only. Insiders already have a view on Brown. Either they think he's Jesus 2.0 or he's a Tea Party conservative wrapped in a moderate's cloak.

                          So I don't see how this vote did anything except rile up more Democratic opposition to this guy which is already sky high among the Democratic base. Now they're 150% sure they hate the guy instead of 140% but that does nothing in terms of votes today. It might mean more GOTV and Democratic volunteers which could lead to votes but that's in the fall, by then there will surely be a bigger political issue, and the vast majority of undecided voters will decide on something other than the Blunt Amendment vote. So I don't think it hurts him.

                          In addition, it makes the Republican base in MA love him more (increase in Republican GOTV this fall), it makes him more popular outside of MA (more $ now), and it makes him even more appealing to anti-choice Democrats who might disagree with his views on the economy, etc. but now might vote with him in 2012.

                          Basically this vote can only increase Brown's MA coalition (adding some anti-choice Democrats) without losing parts of the coalition (because pro-choice Republicans have to be used to supporting Republicans that disagree with them on abortion since it seems there are zero pro-choice Republican officials these days). Kaisch on the other hand won in Ohio because he got a pretty decent percentage of his votes from pro-labor/pro-collective bargaining voters. By supporting Issue 2 he angered these voters from his 2010 coalition making some (who knows how many) decide they won't vote for him next time. At the same time in Ohio I don't think there are many anti-labor/anti-collective bargaining Democrats who will now support Kaisch. So Kaisch is hurting himself by cutting off some of his coalition while Brown is helping his by adding some new votes to his 2012 coalition.

                          (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                          by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:27:19 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I think you're overestimating (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            bythesea, askew

                            the political engagement of people, even those who care about something like fair access to birth control. These are the people Warren needs to and can reach. And if I know Massachusetts, that's a much larger latent vote than any anti-choice Dems who would switch over to Scott Brown.

                            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                            by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 04:20:31 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  really (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      bythesea, askew

                      so pro-choice independent women were all in for Warren from the beginning? Seeing as how women presumably make up half of all independent voters and Brown won indies about 2-1 in 2010 (and presumably needs to come close to that to win in 2012), I highly doubt that. I think you're really underestimating how much Brown's "moderate" shtick works.

                      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:53:05 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  No (0+ / 0-)

                        Strongly pro-choice Women. The vast majority of pro-choice voters don't rate abortion as a major issue come election day.I fall into this category. I am pro-choice but a candidate's abortion choice comes like 15th on my list of importance after things like (in no order) their view of the environment, public education, gay marriage, taxes, Obama, etc.

                        Voters who rank abortion as a deciding factor (or one of a few) are already in the Warren camp.

                        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                        by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:49:13 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I don't think that fairly assesses (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          bythesea, askew

                          just how big a deal the war on women has become. You don't have to be the activist, EMILY's-List-donating, Planned-Parenthood-supporting type to be alarmed at what's going on here. Women's rights haven't been in the spotlight the way they are now in quite some time. And that's why Scott Brown's paternalism is going to turn off more than just the most ardent feminists.

                          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                          by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 04:22:28 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Valid (0+ / 0-)

                            That's a valid point as a male I could be completely underestimating what this means to women. I think that's a reasonable argument that I missed.

                            Maybe there will be few to any women voters in MA this time that are more or less indifferent on this issue. In a more normal year I'd say this is the vast majority of women voters but maybe this year is completely unprecedented on this issue.

                            At the same time I still think the economy will trump this issue especially with 7% unemployment in MA.

                            (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                            by kman23 on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 11:30:33 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

    •  Probably just low sample size (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ndrwmls10, James Allen

      But Warren is actually doing better among whites than non-whites.  If this holds out, she needs to step up her minority outreach.  When I went to her rally in Boston, Boston Councilor Ayanna Pressley was very effective in introducing her.

      29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      by Marcus Graly on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:17:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Probably her best surrogate to the (0+ / 0-)

        minority community.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:50:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's just low sample size, no "probably" (5+ / 0-)

        The only place in America where a Democrat ever has a chance to do better with whites than non-whites is Hawaii.  Everywhere on the mainland, and I'm pretty sure in Alaska, too, nonwhites always are more strongly Democratic than whites.  And that's true right down to the major subgroups, although once you get down to smaller subgroups, some of them like Vietnamese and Cubans are clearly very Republican.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:10:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  first vote... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueonyx

    since it's an election day, I was wondering:

    what the first election that you participated in?
    and how do you feel about it in retrospect?
    •  2008 RI non-presidential primary (0+ / 0-)

      it was my only time ever voting in a polling place. It was a completely inconsequential election but it was cool to vote at least. (And obviously I voted in the general too, although by absentee.)

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:46:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  1996 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Christopher Walker

      I voted for Frank O'Bannon for Governor. I was not interested in politics at the time at all, but he was a good family friend and I felt obligated to do so. I would not have voted otherwise honestly. Considering he won and was one of the most successful and well loved Governors in our states history I feel great about it!

      •  Rick Snyder (0+ / 0-)

        I did that in the 2010 MI Gov race. Snyder was an investor in my dad's company and he often visited our house when my dad had his employees over in the summer and he seemed nice. However, instantly I regretted that vote with the horrible state takeover policy was put in place. What really confuses me is that he's been preaching that business practices should be instituted into government more often and here where cities could easily go through a business like bankruptcy procedure he ignores the business model for a tyrannical model. Ugh. At least he's not a Tea Party nut and he's probably going to lose re-election so I can make up for my vote in 2014.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

        by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 02:29:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  2008 Okla Pres primary - FOR EDWARDS!!! (6+ / 0-)

      I felt great about at the time but now I just feel icky :(

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:48:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2002 CT general election (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, lordpet8, Xenocrypt

      Voted against John Rowland, who later went to jail.  Told you so, home state.

      Also, I hated Susan Bysiewicz but her Republican opponent was a troglodyte so I wrote in Jim Calhoun.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:52:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're from CT? (0+ / 0-)

        And why did you hate Susan B then?

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:38:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bfen

          Hartford area.  I had volunteered for Jepsen and worked an event where she was incredibly rude to staff.  Nobody I had met who worked in politics liked her.

          If it had been a close race I probably would've sucked it up and voted for her.  But I wasn't going to if I didn't have to.

          NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

          by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:58:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know... (0+ / 0-)

            I believe your account, but male politicians act in a "rude" manner all the time and never are called out for it. Seems like a rather large double standard.  

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:18:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Since Bobby Big Wheel is the one making the claim (5+ / 0-)

              It's only a double standard if he, himself, has had a comparable experience with a male politician, but not reacted the same way or said similar things.  If other people do one thing, and Bobby Big Wheel does another thing, then that's not a double standard.

              More broadly: What?  Male politicians are never called out for being rude?  Near the top of my head, what about that guy who would always talk about how he thought Keith Ellison was a dick?  Maybe female politicians are criticized more often, but that would require systematic evidence to establish.

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:44:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think I made too broad of a comment. (0+ / 0-)

                I wasn't trying to direct my issue towards Bobby Big Wheel. Of course there are examples of men being called out. I think their are different types of "bad" behavior and different standards applied to men and women. His comment just reminded me of the broader way of thinking. I apologize to Bobby Big Wheel.

                20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:37:44 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Oh my God, seriously? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tommypaine, jncca

              I respect your absolute obsession with the advancement of Democratic women in politics, but when you are basically accusing Bobby Big Wheel of not liking Bysiewicz because she's a woman or claiming, with no evidence whatsoever, that he holds her to somehow different standards, you are way out of line in my view.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:51:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I remember being a volunteer doorman at a Dem (0+ / 0-)

              fund raiser a few years ago, and every local official except one state legislator thanked me.  I had volunteered a couple times for him, too.  I was really upset that he basically ignored me.  Then me last girlfriend filled in for his legislative assistant one day, and reported back to me that he's just kind of clueless sometimes.

              Politicians are regular people and have their off days, just like us.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:06:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Re: Bysiewicz (3+ / 0-)

                Denise Nappier was at the same event and she was fantastic!  I also love Linda Sanchez, having met her when I worked in DC on numerous occasions.  I haven't worked politics in a while (the Bush era really jaded me) but I'm sure there were male politicians who were dicks but I forget them.  I have a friend who worked for Arlen Specter who told me that's definitely the case, though I cannot verify firsthand.

                At the event Bysiewicz mocked former Jepsen staffers for losing their jobs when he decided to run for Lieutenant Governor.  I already had an antipathy toward her because my mother works in progressive circles in the state and had thought she was rude.  I cannot tell if her reputation has improved in the intervening 10 years, but her dearth of endorsements from sitting politicians makes me think it hasn't changed.

                NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

                by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:38:38 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Rec'd for the mention of . . . (0+ / 0-)

                  . . . Denise Nappier. I was actually hoping she'd run for the open Senate seat in CT. Nothing wrong with Murphy, but I just didn't want his district, which is known to be a tad swingy, to open up. At any rate, I certainly hope Nappier goes far-- if Molloy decided to call it quits after one term (I haven't seen the latest approval ratings, but I know anecdotally that a fair number of CT Dems do not think well of him), Nappier would be an incredibly strong gubernatorial candidate.

                  29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

                  by The Caped Composer on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 05:27:08 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  2003 (0+ / 0-)

      Mayoral and Council election in Nashville. I loved my mayor but wrote in since i hated my unopposed councilman. i think overall it was a good first vote

      Originally from TN05 now unrepresented in DC. Familial and Professional Ties to NY.

      by dsh17 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:57:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  1988 in Minnesota (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, ChadmanFL, James Allen

      I caucused for Jesse Jackson.  In retrospect, I feel great about it.  Of course, I would not have wanted Jesse to be President (I probably even knew that then), but his two runs for the White House were important for a variety of progressive reasons.  And his 1988 convention speech remains the  most electrifying piece of political oratory I can remember in my lifetime.

    •  2004 (0+ / 0-)

      For some reason, I didn't vote in 2002 which was the first election I was able to vote.  The big race was for governor and I would've vote for Jennifer Granholm.  

      So 2004 was my first vote and it was for Kerry.  

    •  First vote was 2008 Dem Primary (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, lordpet8, bfen

      I voted for Obama after thinking it through.  My hand was shaking before I selected the right button as my head was overwhelmed with the fact that this was the first time I could vote for real.  I pushed it, and felt powerful.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:01:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2004 General (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, lordpet8, James Allen

      Voted for Kerry. Also voted Boxer for Senate and Brett Wagner for CA-24.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:03:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I honestly can't remember if it was (0+ / 0-)

      2006 general or 2008.  I was eligable in 2006 (a month before the election), but I don't know if I bothered getting my absentee ballot from Florida.

      I definitely voted in 2008 general for Obama.  That was a proud moment.  I didn't vote in Florida's primary, although had I, I would have been for Edwards at the time...  ugh.

      Now that I look back, I've been a bit lazy about it.  That's the problem with absentees (and being in college/law school at the time).  I didn't vote in 2010 either, because I hadn't switched to NYC yet and was frankly pissed at the lack of progress coming out of a Democratically-controlled Congress.

      Now that I've switched over, and can exactually go to a polling place (something I'm excited about), I'll be better about it.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:07:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2008 D-primary CA (early voting) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Glenn Magus Harvey, bfen

      I was originally a supporter of John Edwards ( I cringe about now) but something in my gut told me he wasn't going to be viable so I ended up voting for Clinton who carried the state in the end. Edwards as it would turn out dropped out of the race about 2 days after I cast my vote. I was glad in the end that my vote wasn't wasted on him.

      I really wanted to vote for the 2006 midterms but I was two months too young. So technically my fist election that I voted in was a local election for city council in 2007.

      23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

      by lordpet8 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:11:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  First (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      election I participated was in 2010 here in California. Voted GOP for Lt. governor and Attorney General but Democratic for everything else. At the time I had problems with Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris because of their records in San Francisco.

      But looking back, I regret voting against Kamala Harris and I'm glad she won since she's been an outstanding attorney general so far and I'd vote for her in anything she would run for in the future.

      Newsom on the other hand I don't regret voting against. After seeing him openly trash Obama and Brown and complain that he doesn't do anything useful in the Lt. Gov's position (did he forget to read the job description or what?), Newsom will never have my vote for anything in the future.

      "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

      by ehstronghold on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:16:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2006 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, blueonyx, bfen

      I was 19 at the time, and going to Michigan State.  Voted for Granholm, Stabenow, and Marcinkowski.  

      My vote for Stabenow didn't matter as much, since she won big anyway.  But it was nice voting for Granholm's re-election over DeVos.

      •  Same here, only older :-) (0+ / 0-)

        I first voted in East Lansing in 2000, for Gore, Stabenow (her first senate race) and Byrum, who was cruelly robbed for the first time. She should also have become Speaker when the Dems took over the State House thanks to her leadership in 2006 (I was an intern in the State House then) but she was termed out. The outgoing Republican Speaker let her wield the gavel one day during the lame duck session :-)

        social democrat (with a small d) the point of politics is policy not power

        by octaviuz on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:44:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  2006 Virginia Primary (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, lordpet8, bfen, James Allen

      Voted for Jim Webb!!!

    •  2004 General (5+ / 0-)

      Took an absentee ballot back to college, then voted for Michael Badnarik for president (I was pretty confident Kerry would win Michigan - if it had been closer, I might have cast off my Republican upbringing and voted D, but at this point I wasn't courageous enough to do so so I went the Republicans-who-are-ashamed-to-be-Republicans route of voting Libertarian). It's pretty funny, I think.

      27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:22:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2004 general election (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      Voted absentee from Rhode Island in Connecticut.  I voted for Kerry and against then-Representative Chris Shays (and for my hometown's then-First-Selectwoman, Diane Farrell).  I stand by it.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:40:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Caucused For Clinton In the 1996 DFL Caucus..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      ...in Minnesota.  Voted for Clinton and Wellstone in November 1996.

    •  2004 General (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, lordpet8, bfen

       I voted for Kerry in Pennsylvania. I think I voted for one winner out of 10 offices on my ballot. I actually waffled a bit between Hoeffel or Specter for Senate, but I chose Hoeffel in the end. Definitely do not regret that. That's the closest I have ever come or will come to voting for a Republican.

        I voted for Democrat Paul Scoles for Congress against Republican incumbent Curt Weldon. Scoles is an HIV-positive orthopedic surgeon who fought for decades for the right to do his job. It was a shock when he broke 40%. He wisely stepped aside for Sestak in 2006.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:47:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fascinating How Many 2004 First-Timers Here..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        For me, that was the most exciting Presidential election CAMPAIGN of my life since it was a crap-shoot which direction it was gonna go.  It ended badly but I think the excitement of that campaign drew a lot of people into horse-race politics.  The 1996 campaign was a snoozer and 2000 only got exciting towards the very end (and of course after the vote) so it's not surprising that the "class of 2004" is among the best-represented on here.

    •  1996 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (6+ / 0-)

      For Lamar Alexander.

      I was 20, and I vividly remember being in a room full of seniors with "Dole - he's one of us!" buttons, and thinking, yeah, he's one of you.

      Republican, MI-09, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

      by Bart Ender on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:57:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My '96 souvenir (0+ / 0-)

        I have a button that has pictures of Dole, Kemp, and their wives and labeled "Dream Team".

        27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

        by bumiputera on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:35:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I splurged on buttons when I was at the 2004 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          college dems/young dems convention.  Bad idea in retrospect, as it was mostly a waste of money.  Though hopefully it helped a few progressive activists, and pumped some money into the local economy.

          I remember Kerry and Edwards had a pin like that too.  Kinda unnerving in retrospect when you think of how Edwards has been treating his wife.

    •  2004 general election (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      I wasn't 18 before the primary but I learned later on (much to my annoyance) that so long as I was going to be turning 18 in time for the general, I could vote in New Mexico's "caucus" (they called it a caucus, but it was just a party-run primary). Of course, John Kerry was already the heavy favorite by then, so it was kinda moot, but I probably would have voted for Wes Clark.

      It was pretty exciting, voting for John Kerry and Richard Romero (who, of course, both lost... ugh...)

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:01:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2008 fall primary (0+ / 0-)

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-23 (College: Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations), WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:02:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2010 midterms (6+ / 0-)

      I voted straight-ticket Democratic. Every candidate I voted for won.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:04:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2000 General (0+ / 0-)

      Voted Al Gore for President and Medea Benjamin for U.S. senator.  I was registered Green at the time and might have voted Nader if there had not been some late polling that showed California as possibly competitive.  I went to sign up on one of the "Nader trader" websites to swap out my Gore vote for that of Nader voter in a swing state, but was told that California was not safe enough for me to participate.

      I don't regret either vote.  Feinstein was to the right of Campbell on many issues and was safe regardless.  I might have actually voted for Campbell has he not done a last minute attack that implied that Feinstein's pro-China positions were not sincerely held only on behest of her husband's business interests.

      29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      by Marcus Graly on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:09:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  DC, 2004 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      Cast my first vote for John Kerry and a bunch of shadow figures who are inconsequential. Definitely regret voting for Kwame Brown these days.

    •  1988 CA primary (0+ / 0-)

      I think I voted for Dukakis.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:34:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  followup (0+ / 0-)

        My first general election was in the fall of 1988. I don't regret voting for Dukakis, although in retrospect I think George HW Bush did a pretty good job. I regret voting for Prop 98, which is part of the structure that makes state government so unwieldy.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:38:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, this IS a young crowd (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen, IndianaProgressive, bythesea

      I won't say what year, but this was the top song of the year:

      http://www.youtube.com/...

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn. But HBO can kiss my ass for cancelling Luck.

      by Paleo on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:43:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Voted absentee (0+ / 0-)

      in the 2004 general election in SD. Voted for Kerry, Daschle for Senate and Herseth for House.  1 outta 3 aint bad, right?

      26, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:45:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2002 in Illinois (0+ / 0-)

      Bobby Rush for Congress, Dick Durbin for Senate, and-- gulp-- Blago for Governor. Nobody at the time knew what a trainwreck he'd turn out to be. In hindsight, definitely the most embarrassing vote I've ever cast!

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

      by The Caped Composer on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:06:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2004 (0+ / 0-)

      I don't remember exactly whether I voted in the primary--I think I voted Dodd or Richardson.  Or maybe Edwards.  It would help if I could remember when in the consolidating process we were at that point.  I was not excited about Dean the way like many other just-voting-age young Dems were, but that was mostly because I had little information on which to base an informed judgement.

      I went onto vote for Kerry/Edwards in the general election, of course.

    •  2010, general (0+ / 0-)

      in the middle of Ohio, Delaware County. The congressional seat was one of our top 10 pickup opportunities, but it was 2010, so it really wasn't close by the time of the election. Voted straight Dem, except I couldn't remember which was our candidiate in the officially nonpartisan judicial elections, so I guessed (may have gotten it wrong; wasn't close anyway). I considered voting non-Green left-wing in the hopeless Senate election, but decided not to because our candidate (Fischer) donated most of his campaign chest to the state party a week before the election, so I wanted to reward him a bit for being a team player.

      Didn't have ID, so had to use a paper provisional ballot. Doubt they ended up counting it.

      How does homeopathy work?| Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09))

      by gabjoh on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:21:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  1998 school board election (0+ / 0-)

      I had registered before I turned 18 (they registered our high school class).  I could care less about politics then, and did not vote in the midterms that year (I was away at college).

      The first major election (and the only time I voted Republican) was the 2000 presidential election.  I voted for Gore, but voted against Hillary Clinton in the senate race, because I thought she was using NY to advance her political career and I voted for the New Yorker.  

      First primary I voted in (I moved from NY to NJ in 2007) was the Super Tuesday presidential.  I have not missed a primary since, even if it means voting by mail.

    •  2006 MI Republican Primary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      I'm a strong Dem but at the time we didn't have a real D house candidate and crazy Rev. Tim Walberg was running one of the first anti-incumbent, anti-pork, anti-stem cell, anti-moderate, pro-Tea Party (before Tea Party) races against moderate Joe Schwarz. I remember all the Club for Growth hit pieces on Schwarz just made me like Schwarz more. I voted Schwarz along with the rest of my family so my first every vote was for a Republican. However, Schwarz is considering running as a Democrat in 2012 and Walberg has been a constant embarrassment in the House. Thank god I've been redistricted into Dingell's new district.

      (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

      by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:34:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  1956: I liked Ike (5+ / 0-)

      It said so on the front of my itty-bitty T-shirt. There's a picture, in some scrapbook.

      First more active participation: 1962, putting up posters for incumbent senator Homer E. Capehart, who was retired that year, one of the few in American history, by a catchy radio jingle:

      Hey, look him over,
        He's my kind of guy!
      His first name is Birch
         And his last name is Bayh!

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:52:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  my first presidential vote (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SLDemocrat

        In 1968 I backed Eugene McCarthy, but couldn't vote yet. I was finally old enough to vote in 1972. I voted for McGovern, despite deep reservations about both his personal character and his political acumen, because Nixon and George Wallace were inadmissible options.  

        Earlier in the 1972 primary season I had supported Fred Harris, Vance Hartke, Shirley Chisholm, and Patsy Mink, possibly in that order, I no longer recall. My enthusiasm has always spelled the death knell for long-shot presidential candidacies.

        A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

        by Christopher Walker on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 03:33:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  2006 General (0+ / 0-)

      Against Lieberman. (I suppose I was really voting for Lamont, but such was not the purpose of my vote)

      Had I not desired to defeat Lieberman, I probably would have registered in New York to begin with.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:14:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2004 primary election. (0+ / 0-)

      I don't remember having any particularly great choices, except I'm pretty sure I voted for Martha Schrader for county commission, who I eventually interned for when she was in the state senate.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:01:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2006 midterm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Voted absentee in IN-02 from my college dorm in IN-09. Voted for Joe Donnelly for Congress, and Dick Lugar for Senate. His only opposition that year was a Libertarian, and he was actually more or less his old common-sense persona. Never voting for Lugar again.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 07:06:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-StSen (recalls): why are we not challenging (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Lasee, Vukmir, Liebham, or Ellis?

    Just asking; I haven't kept up with the details on the recalls.  AFAIK we're only challenging Fitz, Wanggaard, Moulton, and Galloway (who's now resigned but the recall will proceed anyway).

    I understand not challenging Schultz (rewarding decency) or Kedzie (59-40 McCain district), but what about the rest of them?

    Based on http://www.swingstateproject.com/... , it seems that Lasee, Liebham, and Ellis might be ripe targets based on presidential numbers and Vukmir only won by 5pp in 2010.

  •  Next PPP poll (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone else want them to do Indiana?  I want to see how Donnelly does against Lugar and Mourdock (without the oddly high support for the Libertarian candidate) and if the president might be competitive here.

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:50:11 AM PDT

    •  They can't poll Indiana sadly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, James Allen

      I think Indiana doesn't allow for automated polling.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:51:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No IN polling from PPP (12+ / 0-)

      They have a law against robots calling you on the phone. Racists.

    •  Can't do robocalls in the state. (0+ / 0-)

      So PPP won't do Indiana.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:52:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They will, but only under one of 2 conditions (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, gabjoh, James Allen, askew

        A) Somebody pays the additional expenses required to do a live interview poll.
        B) There's something big going on there and they want in on the action.

        Same case with ND.

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:55:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ras gets around it (0+ / 0-)

          but having a person introduce the robo part of the poll. I wish PPP would do the same but can understand their hesitance.

        •  I always found it odd (0+ / 0-)

          Isn't the law in Indiana written that a live person has to initiate the call and ask if they want to participate, but then can change over to the automated poll once the person says yes?  

          If so it just seems like this wouldn't be a huge added expense.  Or is the law not written that way?

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:03:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You are talking about adding a live caller (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, James Allen, bythesea

            for each and every call.  Even if they don't do the actual polling, I still have to imagine that the expense is much higher compared to PPP's normal expenses.

            One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

            by AUBoy2007 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:50:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe, but it's not millions (0+ / 0-)

              15 seconds of dialing and 30 seconds to introduce.  for the 1500 respondents it works out to 2 employees for 2 full days at most.  For hangups you're talking maybe another few for another few days.  

              It's not liek these people would cost a lot per hour either so I'm not sure why its just a done deal they almost never poll IN on their own.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:41:06 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Apparently it costs more than you think (0+ / 0-)

                because they do use it as a reason not to poll Indiana.

                Don't forget hiring and training costs too.  I'm sure a lot goes into staffing.  You're not just pulling a couple of hundred people off the street.  And it's super temporary, because most of the time they don't need these people.

                One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

                by AUBoy2007 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:35:46 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

                  There are call center outsourcing firms, it simply can't be that expensive.  

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:38:15 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Except (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                It's not possible to poll all day because the polling sample will be overwhelmingly Seniors and stay at home moms. Polling has to be done after work and that's why automated makes more sense. After work responding rates have to be incredibly low since few families have the patience, interest and time to answer a 5 minute survey. So if your wanted 1500 respondents, took 30 seconds per call and 10% success rate (which from my experience is about right) you'd need to make 10 calls for each of the 1500 answers meaning 15000 calls at 30 seconds a piece is 7,500 minutes which is 125 hours. If you can only make calls between 5 and 9 that's 4 hours a night. If you want this poll in 2 days that's 8 hours per person meaning you need just over 15 people. It's not really expensive but it's way more expensive than an automated poll.

                (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:48:03 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  And (0+ / 0-)

                  And that's assuming that every second of the 4 hours is talking to the next person and not wasting time dialing the next number, waiting for the phone to be answered, asking for so and so, waiting for that person to come to the phone never mind being on task 100% of the time. Truthfully I think only half of the four hours would you be doing the 30 second read so you'd need to at a minimum double the 15 people to 30.

                  (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                  by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:51:05 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Still what (0+ / 0-)

                    $1K-$2K?  I mean that is not a prohibitive figure in any definition of "prohibitive".

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:58:14 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I Agree (0+ / 0-)

                      30 people at $10 an hour for 8 hours is $2400 which doesn't seem like a lot but I don't know PPP's budget. I'm sure they'll eventually pay to do this just not until they really need to.

                      (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

                      by kman23 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:41:02 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen has Heller ahead 47-40 (5+ / 0-)

    Jon Ralston calls for a grain of salt and brings up their last Angle vs. Reid poll, which was quite a bit off.
    https://www.facebook.com/...

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:51:53 AM PDT

  •  Apparently (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, bumiputera, Taget, askew

    Mark Neumann didn't learn anything from another Mark (Sanford): http://politicalwire.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:16:31 AM PDT

  •  NJ-03 (4+ / 0-)

    Shelley Adler kicks off her campaign: http://www.politickernj.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:20:00 AM PDT

  •  "Why We Support Kathleen Falk for Governor, and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    Why Wisconsin’s Left Should Too"

    http://www.defendwisconsin.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:20:51 AM PDT

  •  NJ-09 (0+ / 0-)

    Former Englewood mayor Michael Wildes is thinking about jumping into the D primary, which would split the Bergen vote and help out Bill Pascrell. http://www.northjersey.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:23:24 AM PDT

  •  Hey (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bfen

    remember that Some Dude professor/husband of st. senator Tom Potter who dropped out of the ND Dem primary for senate? Apparently he's going to be the nominee for insurance commissioner.

    lol?

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:24:30 AM PDT

  •  2016 Presidential Bracket! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Taget

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Ben Smith comments that he can't see how can anyone besides Hillary deny Cuomo the nomination. But with the rate with which he dishes the core Dem constituencies, and after the 2008 primary, I'd be more careful.

    Whoever from his inner circle thought that trashing the African-American state senate Democratic leader was good politics, needs to have his ass seriously kicked.

     

  •  Hm (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Taget, bfen, impossibility theorist

    Ryan Lizza Tweets: "This map showing intensity of views about abortion explains the Romney-Santo race about as well as anything I've seen."

    Well, yeah, except that could just as easily be a map of a million other things that Chicago and New York City disagree with Mississippi about.  You know, because political views are mostly unidimensional and well-correlated.  Am I missing some nuance here?  (Via a D. Bernstein retweet, alas.)

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:47:20 AM PDT

  •  VA SEN: We shouldnt underestimate George Allen (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, bfen, James Allen, dc1000

    I think someone in another thread asked about Obama/Allen voters, wonder who are these people?

    I dont know, but I think we underestimate George Allen. Remember even after "macaca", he still barely lost against a pretty decent candidate in a great year for Dems.

    That said, I think if Obama carries the state by a decent margin(say 5%), then Kaine probably wins. But it will be close.

  •  Seamus Romney poll (6+ / 0-)

    This is why PPP is my favorite pollster: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections

    by James L on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:51:37 AM PDT

  •  Queensland state election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lidem89, SLDemocrat

    ABC has a good video up summing up Queensland political history from 1989 to 2012. Also at 2:00 into the video notice the ABC Reporter Maxine McKew. In 2007 she would defeat PM John Howard in his own seat of Bennelong before later being defeated herself in 2010.

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:54:58 AM PDT

  •  Queensland state election (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Taget

    Labor trots out the "Don't give him too much power" argument they used in NSW. Sadly it didn't work in NSW (Labor was reduced to an insignificant rump of 20 seats) and there's no upper house in Queensland.

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:08:01 AM PDT

    •  Any updates on Ashgrove? (0+ / 0-)

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-23 (College: Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations), WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:18:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SLDemocrat

        Newspoll released last week showing Newman leading Jones 52-48 was not good for Labor. Also seeing how the CMC (Crimes and Misconduct commission) dropped all their investigation into Newman's finances and actions as Lord Mayor (at the same time depriving Labor of their most potent talking point) I think Newman wins at this point.

        Ashgrove is probably looking like PA-SEN back in 2010 i.e. Jones surged at the end thanks to effective attack ads, but Newman will probably be aided by most voters voting straight LNP.

        "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

        by ehstronghold on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:41:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MD-06 mmm cat fud (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    enjoy this post from an angry teabagger who is angry with Sen. David Brinkley's attacks on Del. Kathy Afzali in the R primary: http://potomacteapartyreport.wordpress.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:20:07 AM PDT

  •  MD-Sen (4+ / 0-)

    Ben Cardin has a new ad (NWOTSOTB for now). It's not as cute as his last one but still pretty charming. Watch:

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 10:22:34 AM PDT

  •  Larges publc union suspends support for NY dems. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, lordpet8, James Allen, askew
    The state’s largest worker union is mad as hell over pension reform — and they’re not going to take it anymore.

    The 300,000-member Civil Service Employees Association suspended its campaign contributions and political endorsements for state candidates Monday, less than a week after the Legislature approved Gov. Cuomo’s proposal to scale back pension benefits for new hires.

    CSEA President Danny Donohue said the union wants to “reevaluate our political relationships and make judgments about the criteria” to determine whom to support.

    Donohue said the union took the action because it believes lawmakers sold out the workers by approving Cuomo’s pension overhaul in order to avoid a gubernatorial veto of their new legislative district boundaries.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    But in the article they at least said good things about Senate Democrats so perhaps they will help in the chamber that matters.  

    Course not every union has the same reaction.

    The state teachers union and the Public Employees Federation — the state’s second-largest public workers union — said they will not make the pension reform bill a litmus test on which candidates to support.
    I would say the teachers are waiting to see what happens with Cuomo's atempts to go after them with education reform and then I remembered they are a bunch of toothless cowards who will support any candidate Republican or Democrat who is an incumbent no matter what.
  •  Simonsen (0+ / 0-)

    Wouldn't UT-02 be the better choice, seeing as it actually contains Salt Lake City and is more Democratic overall?

    29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    by Marcus Graly on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:15:41 AM PDT

  •  God bless you CNN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chachy, jj32

    Illinois is a must-win for Romney.  Keep repeating it and maybe you can keep the media coverage as exhilarating as its been so far.

    And when he does win, it won't be by enough.  Or he'll show weakness amongst "Conservatives who don't like licorice" or some other ridiculousness.

    Sigh :-)

    http://www.cnn.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 11:24:47 AM PDT

  •  Has anyone yet made a diary about WI-StSen recalls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    comparing the '08 presidential, last race, and recall results, and using them to predict the results of these four upcoming state senate recalls?

  •  NM-01 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    I don't know that Dan Lewis dropping out is good for Democrats, Janice Arnold-Jones is seen as very moderate and now 2 women will be on the ticket on the Republican side potentially against 2 men.  I don't think she'll have problems fundraising as the nominee.

  •  Voted for the first time today (10+ / 0-)

    Of course, I voted in the R primary in IL, but it was exciting to finally get to finally fulfill my favorite civic duty.

  •  NY-22 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    It's a narrowly McCain-won seat and I think Hanna has legitimate crossover appeal with a low ACU score and a genuine lack of social conservatism (the dude is a member of the LGBT Equality Caucus in the House and is pro-choice)... I really don't think Ds have a great shot at Hanna. What do y'all think?

  •  Will the real Mitt Romney please stand up? (funny) (7+ / 0-)

    If you haven't seen this yet, it is an instant classic.

  •  Rothenberg claims redistricting is a wash (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sapelcovits, itskevin, askew

    Apparently believes Dems will not gain a seat in New York.

    Of course, a year ago he was warning that redistricting could cost Democrats a dozen or more seats.

    http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn. But HBO can kiss my ass for cancelling Luck.

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:37:56 PM PDT

  •  Rasmussen NV: 50-44 Obama over Romney (5+ / 0-)
    •  WTF is up with their huge Obama - Senate splits??? (7+ / 0-)

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:46:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney more disliked than downballot GOPers, but.. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, LordMike, itskevin

        ...that doesn't explain the huge margins of the splits.

        It's consistent, and the splits to large to be valid.

        But at the least one can trust that when Rasmussen says a Democrat is winning, then the Democrat almost certainly is winning.  So Obama is in stronger shape in Nevada than many might've believed.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:12:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Guess he could do much to fudge numbers there (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, askew

      It does make his Senate poll look even less credible, no way Berkley would be behind with Obama at 50%.

      That makes two polls today that show key states in the electoral firewall looking more secure.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:48:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, DCCyclone, itskevin, supercereal, askew

      They aren't going to mix it up a bit? They've done the same thing with each Senate and Presidential poll. Complete and utter jokes...

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 12:48:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's highly unlikely (6+ / 0-)

      that NV will render a split decision here.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:18:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ras looks consistent here at least (0+ / 0-)

      Obama won by 12 in 2008.  Assuming Obama does at least as well against Romney as McCain, that makes Ras off by 6 here.

      If then Ras is off by 6 on the Senate side, that would put Heller ahead by 1... which is consistent with the tossup findings of other pollsters.

      Ras is in his way a somewhat consistent pollster.  You just have to adjust the numbers.  In this case it makes perfect sense to assume Heller is stronger to the degree he is against Berkley that Romney v Obama.  In both cases though you have to apply a Ras adjustment.  

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:23:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think we can assume that (0+ / 0-)

        The Rasmussen GOP lean is only about four points on average, in about 75% of races.

        http://www.dailykos.com/...

        Though I suppose Obama +10, Heller +3 isn't materially different. The problem is he is consistently finding Democratic candidates for Senate vastly underperforming the president in state after state.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:39:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes it was four points, in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

          But now he's using that 36R/33D national sample (or at least I'm believing when someone posted that), so his state samples should be similarly out of whack.

          You do agree that if Ras' samples now are more Republican-leaning than they were in 2008 that we should make a larger adjustment than we have been, right?

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:43:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know how far they lean this year (0+ / 0-)

            We certainly don't know in which specific races since history suggests it isn't across the board bias. Similarly, it is an average so it'll be more in some races and less in others.

            At the end of the day, it probably isn't a good idea to adjust definitively but just to recognize more often than not that Democrats are doing better than he says. What I will say is the presidential statewide numbers don't look too bad this time. The problem seems to be US Senate races and the national poll.

            "Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 31.7% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans."

            Considering the national tracking poll is LV then his daily reports are based on an electorate greater than three points more Republican than either 2004 or 2010 when the partisan breakdown was 37-37 and 35-35 respectively.

            "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

            by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 02:00:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Also, in general I expect Dem senate candidates (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          to underperform Obama... for the simple reason the national Prez candidates are in general far weaker than than the Senate candidates.

          Put another way, I'm a Californian.  We have tons of nominal Republicans who will vote against the circus geek national Republicans, but will support a local republican like Lungren, Mack, Campbell, Mckeon, etc.  10% of the Obama winning margin of 25% will likely vote for local Republicans.

          At this stage, the GOP prez candidate looks to be getting gutted worse than Mccain, but several Senate races will be closer... like VA and NV and MA, because the Republican candidate is much better than Romney.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:51:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I have a hard time seeing (5+ / 0-)

            Shelley Berkley and Bill Nelson underperforming Obama by double digits as Rasmussen currently suggests.

            "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

            by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 02:05:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sure, double digits is bizarre (0+ / 0-)

              especially in Florida where the GOP candidate is weaker.

              Heller and Berkley were essentially peers a few months ago, so giving him a tiny boost for being an incumbent seems reasonable, but the big difference in Florida is Ras weirdness.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 03:30:14 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  two different animals (0+ / 0-)

            incumbent Democratic Senators typically did better than Obama in 2008. Challengers or non incumbents in open seats may or may not have run better than Obama but it depended on the challenger i.e. Warner vs. Gilmore, etc.
            Certainly Begich, Warner, Hagan and Udall did better and won. Rice and Musgrove did better than Obama in their state but still lost.

  •  PPP has where to poll (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

    Choices are CT, FL, IA, NE, NV, NM, and NY. NV leads with a small plurality. Please vote NE so we can verify Rasmussen's poll that has Kerrey so far down, no one ever polls NE, other pollsters will rule out or verify Ras's NV poll sometime in the next week and in all likelihood it will show things the same as ever -- neck and neck for Sen. with Obama ahead in the Pres. results. I think it's much more useful to get an independent look at the NE race.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:15:06 PM PDT

    •  Nope, I'm voting NV (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jmartin4s, askew

      as I have the last 2-3 weeks.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:25:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hard choice (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, sapelcovits, DCCyclone

        NE, IA or NV are probably due before the others. I'll go for NE since I don't think we learn much from finding another tie in the Berkley-Heller race.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:47:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  the ras poll needs to be debunked from Nevada (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, askew

          today. We all know what Nebraska will show. I dont need to know that if Bob Kerrey is down by 10 or if Bob Kerrey is down by 5.

          •  Nah (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, sapelcovits, askew

            Ralston debunked it. Nobody takes Rasmussen seriously expect blind conservatives that don't want to see.

            "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

            by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 02:03:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  that doesnt explain what the point would be for (0+ / 0-)

              polling nebraska which hasnt proved itself competitive beyond Lean R. Seriously, we all know what a poll of Nebraska would show right now. Why not poll something more interesting. Seems like a waste of a poll to me. I hope they are doing top two for this one.

              •  There haven't been any legit Kerrey polls (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                At least as far as I recall without looking. There have been a dozen for NV-Sen saying the same thing. The whole point of polling is so we don't have to rely on assumptions. I think it would be interesting to get a baseline to see how far down he is. I doubt it is too much else he wouldn't be running. Gotta reckon the DSCC polled before he got in.

                "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 02:20:52 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  the only race where assumptions have been made (0+ / 0-)

                  is NDsen

                  lets put it this way, in the most dramatic spread difference between Rasmussen and PPP, there was Thompson+14, Baldwin+1 (15 spread difference). Rasmussen had Kerrey down by 22 to Brunning. Apply the same dramatic shift, and its probably less dramatic, Kerrey would still be down by 8. Both NEsen and NVsen have had two polls released to the public in 2012. Id prefer the more competitive be polled.

                  •  Good point about ND-Sen (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, LordMike, askew

                    Kinda amazing not a single poll there outside of that Mellman internal. Obviously PPP can't poll there for the same reasons as Indiana. Personally I think Heitkamp has a far better shot than Kerrey. But I'm making assumptions!

                    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                    by conspiracy on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 02:34:44 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I would like to see a NE poll (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike

                    to contrast with Ras because I disagree with your sentence that "we all know" what it will show.

                    I personally have no idea what it will show, except the margin will be at least 4% less than Ras.  I'm guessing it will be a lot less than ras, but I'm curious what that will be.

                    Also, while NV also offers a Ras contrast, NV has been one of PPP's worst states... too many Latinos with cellphones I suppose.  NE offers a more clear contrast to look at.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 03:34:31 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Since I assume they will poll NY before (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, LordMike

      the primary, NE sounds fine to me.

      I think some people still would like to see a poll of Iowa to counteract that batch of unreliable polls from awhile ago, but I don't see much point in that.

      NV is a good choice too though.  Obama should have a double digit lead, but it would be good to see how far behind Obama Berkley is.  (I fear a fall where Obama is so far ahead in NV that he ignores NV, which hurts Berkley.)

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:34:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I picked Nebraska (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, tommypaine

      few of the other states have interesting races, and PPP has always had trouble polling Nevada.

    •  We need an Iowa poll (6+ / 0-)

      That Selzer poll showing Obama down a few weeks ago needs to be confirmed or disputed.

  •  NY-06: Gary Ackerman on Meng and Lanceman. (5+ / 0-)

    On Meng:

    "It's uplifting, it's tranformational, it's inspiring, it encourages people to vote and register and participate in the process, that they're not left out, that they're included in," Ackerman said. "And America is a place of inclusion and it's supposed to be that with everybody."
    Ackerman said Meng was "filled with grace, I have to tell you, as the official candidate of the Democrats"--Ackerman likes jokes--and that she knows Taiwanese issues "cold," although "other candidates bring to [the race] other knowledgeable issues, I'm sure."
    On Lanceman:
    Ackerman said one of those candidates, Assemblyman Rory Lancman, didn't quite get the hint about Ackerman's possible retirement, when Lancman met with him last week to inform him that he didn't intend to mount a primary challenge in the newly formed district.

    "I wished him good luck, I told him that he had a future ahead of him," Ackerman said. "I told him how circumstances changed when I first became a congressman—I wasn't, then somebody died, then the next day I had a shot that I didn't have—and in this business things turn on an instant. And that it could happen quicker than he thought.

    "I thought that was a pretty big hint."

    http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:15:42 PM PDT

  •  The Galloway Effect (6+ / 0-)

    Here are some of the details of the power-sharing agreement in the Wisconsin Senate:

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    Fitzgerald loses one staffer, Miller gains one. All committees lose one Republican member. Two Republicans are kicked off Finance and replaced with two Democrats. Ellis stays president, Republicans keep their committee gavels. No word yet on the other two significant committees, the Joint Legislative Council and the Joint Committee for the Review of Administrative Rules.

  •  Nebraska SEN endorsement (7+ / 0-)

    VoteVets endorses Kerrey, in an email to their list, today.

    Not really a surprise, he's been on their Board.

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:45:17 PM PDT

  •  This may not be (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine, bumiputera, Taget, askew

    the stupidest things I've ever heard, but its at least the stupidest thing this week.

    Newt Gingrich is a sad little man.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:50:40 PM PDT

  •  WI-02: Kate Michelman, who led NARAL from (0+ / 0-)

    1985-2004, has endorsed Kelda Helen Roys. I looked at Michelman's biography, it's pretty sad. Her daughter was paralyzed in a horse-riding accident and her husband was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease. She had to resign from her position to take care of both of them. They've been in extreme debt since then. It's good that she's getting out there and doing these kinds of things.

       “I have followed Kelda’s career for many years, and I have been consistently impressed by her demonstrated ability to stand up for what she believes and to fight back against the war on women’s rights. A tireless advocate her entire career, Kelda’s voice is desperately needed in Washington,” said Michelman. “Voters nationwide who are fed up with the constant attacks on reproductive rights should be doing everything they can to help make sure Kelda gets to the Congress. Not only is she by far the strongest champion for women in her race, her candidacy is of national importance to the reproductive rights movement.”
       “When I first spoke to Kelda about her race, the excitement was mine,” added Michelman. “Kelda’s candidacy represents an important opportunity to empower a fresh generation of pro-choice advocates who will reenergize our movement. I look forward to hitting the phones and doors in the 2nd District to help Kelda win!”
    http://www.keldaforcongress.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 01:51:36 PM PDT

  •  Some obscure WATN, down in the weeds edition (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, bumiputera

    http://projects.newsobserver.com/...

    Former Republican Rep. Barry Goldwater, Jr. son of the former presidential candidate is lending his support to a fundraiser for North Carolina's incumbent insurance commissioner, Democrat Wayne Goodwin.

    Goldwater, who now lives in Phoenix, said in a statement, that, “Commissioner Goodwin has my strong personal support because of his unmatched track record of protecting consumers, preserving state-based insurance regulation and helping to bring new insurance companies and jobs to North Carolina,. Wayne’s work transcends partisan politics. He is trustworthy, hard-working and one of the
    most accessible public servants I've ever seen."
  •  Final Alaska delegate results announced (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen, Taget, SaoMagnifico
    Alaska GOP announces final results from Super Tuesday. Delegates awarded: Romney - 8, Santorum - 8, Paul - 6, Gingrich - 2.
    http://huff.to/...
  •  Kind of old news, but looks like Elizabeth Warren (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, KingofSpades, askew

    did well at that St. Patrick's Day political roast. And so did Scott Brown(that Santorum joke was pretty funny).

    Anyway, I just posted this, because I get irritated with the "aloof professor" criticism that Warren and Obama, for that matter often get, just because it doesnt really fit with reality.

  •  Is someone doing a live blog tonight? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, jj32

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 04:18:06 PM PDT

  •  Roy Ashburn - WATN (0+ / 0-)

    FYI-
    http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    If nothing else, he makes local politics interesting all by himself.

    ex-SSP. What would Machiavelli do?

    by hankmeister on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 04:55:32 PM PDT

  •  Queensland state election (0+ / 0-)

    Accounting for the +12 hour time difference between where I live and Queensland, ReachTEL's final poll should be out by tomorrow afternoon for us West Coasters and evening for you East coasters.

    I expect Newman to be leading, momentum has definitely shifted towards him these last few days.

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 08:53:50 PM PDT

  •  Opinions on NY redistricting (0+ / 0-)

    I'm looking around the site for some opinion on NY's new Congressional map that now seems to be final. I'm not finding much (I'm not enough of an expert, and don't have time to look at each new district in detail). Here's a link to a nice interactive map:

    NY Redistricting (NY Times)

    I'm wondering what people think about impact on candidates, I see a couple discussed above, but has anyone looked at this district by district?  Is there a diary or news item I haven't found? For example, Rich Becker was running for the old NY-19, which became (mostly NY-18). But, Becker lives in Cortlandt I think, which is part of the new NY-17.  What will this do to his candidacy?

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