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Leading Off:

NY-25: Maybe Maggie Brooks won't be so intimidating after all. The Republican Monroe County Executive tried to pull an embarrassing David Weprin just a day after kicking off her campaign against veteran Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter:

Speaking to reporters at the Greater Rochester International Airport on Tuesday following a news conference about expanded service to New York City, Brooks said it was premature for her "to be pinned down on issues."

"I know everybody wants to know, 'Where do you stand on this, this and this?' " Brooks said. "At this point, we're organizing a campaign that hopefully will mirror what people at the local level want to talk about.

Hah! So not only will Brooks not discuss her views on the issues, but she's waiting to field-test her positions before announcing them to the public. Strong!

Senate:

IN-Sen: This is a great move by Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly: In response to Sen. Dick Lugar's ultra-feeble claim that he spent a mere 1,805 days in Indiana in 36 years in office, Donnelly is pointing out that he's been in the Hoosier State 1,151 days and 1,029 nights since he was first sworn in five years ago. Going by days, that's 63% of the time, versus less than 14% for Lugar.

Meanwhile, Lugar is once again trying to refashion his image as a staunch warrior against "Obamacare," instead of what he's better-known for, being Obama's "favorite Republican." He has a new TV ad (tied to the Supreme Court hearing oral arguments about the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act), and we have some word on the size of the buy: $110K, which includes $23K for radio. (You can watch it at the link.)

Meanwhile, here's that Club for Growth ad attacking Lugar that's supposedly backed by a $1.8 million buy. Can't really say it packs much of an emotional punch or has very impressive production values.

ME-Sen: When campaigns circulate "petitions," it's just a way to gather email addresses, so I tend to take little notice of them. But I'll give credit to Democratic state Sen. Cynthia Gill for this gambit: She's circulating a new petition asking Angus King to tell Mainers who he'll support as Senate majority leader, Harry Reid or Mitch McConnell. It's a good way for Dill to tout her own Democratic bona fides, and to keep King's wishy-washiness in the news.

King, of course, seems intent on continuing to do just that himself, though. (No surprise.) His latest move: He's tapped a former Democratic state legislator as his policy director and a former Republican strategist as his political director. I guess I forgot how much voters love it when politicians try to look like they're all over the map.

While we're on Angus, this is super-lame. Even though Twitter allows parody accounts, and even though the @King_Angus account followed all the rules, Angus King (or a supporter) managed to get the account yanked from the site. (It's what Angus himself was referring to when he complained about "all these crappy twitters.") Have no fear, though: King Angus II lives! Long live the king!

P.S. Genius comment by gabjoh on King's party & state designation: "Angus King (I-ME): 'cause that's all he's about."

MT-Sen: Dem Sen. Jon Tester is out with his first ad of his re-election campaign, a positive spot in which he says that he, like the combine he uses on his farm, is non-partisan. The buy is for $60K, which is actually not such a small sum in a small state like Montana. You can watch the ad at the link or below:

PA-Sen: This is pretty good oppo—and pretty amusing, too, just given how far back it reaches. Democrats are now attacking rich guy Tom Smith over tax increases he supported when he was the supervisor of tiny Plumcreek Township... back in the 1970s. Smith's only real response is to say that this proves Democrats think he's a threat. (Do you think Kirsten Gillibrand thought overgrown fratboy Marc Cenedella was a threat?) Still, we'll see if any of Smith's GOP primary opponents embrace the hit.

House:

CA-10: This is pathetic: California Republicans are suing to prevent Democrat Jose Hernandez, who is running against freshman Rep. Jeff Denham in the redrawn 10th, from describing himself on the June top-two primary ballot as an "astronaut." Hernandez worked for NASA until 2011 and flew into space in 2009, so the lawsuit rather amusingly declares that "astronaut is not a title one carries for life." Who knows—maybe the GOP is right on the legal merits. But this suit will just bring more attention to Hernandez's extraordinary resume.

CA-44: Wow. Laura Richardson is just the worst. I really hope she loses.

MD-06, MD-04: Looks like I wasn't the only person unhappy with Rep. Donna Edwards' endorsement of financier John Delaney in the 6th District Democratic primary: The state's AFL-CIO just sent around a memo to other labor organizations sharply criticizing Edwards' move, saying she'd been asked to either endorse state Sen. Rob Garagiola or to stay out of the race. Unions have good caused to be miffed: When former prosecutor Glenn Ivey moved to challenge Edwards in her own 4th CD primary, labor circled the wagons around her and made it clear exactly how tough a race Ivey would have—something that helped convince Ivey to drop his aspirations after just a short while. Next time, Edwards may not be so fortunate, since the AFL is saying that her endorsement decision will "certainly be considered in our future relationships."

MN-02: Democrats have their first announced candidate in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District: Northfield City Council member Patrick Ganey. While Kline will be tough to defeat, redistricting made this seat a bit bluer, which ought to help. The linked article also mentions a couple of other Dem names who are still considering: ex-state Rep. Michael Obermueller and Dakota County Commissioner Kathleen Gaylord. One top potential recruit said earlier this month that he won't make a go of it, though: State Rep. Joe Atkins will instead run for re-election.

NC-13: This is interesting. A super PAC called the American Foundations Committee (there must be a refrigerator magnet set of words you can use to make up PAC names) just threw down almost $60K on paid media on behalf of former U.S. Attorney George Holding—capping a month-long spending spree that totals some $215K. Holding is running in the GOP primary for the redrawn 13th District (an open seat because Dem Rep. Brad Miller is retiring, though he wasn't planning to run here anyway), and he's already raised a lot more than his main rival, Wake County commissioner Paul Coble. This big infusion of outside money only pads that edge, and it's yet another example of a single-candidate super PAC making its presence felt.

NJ-07: Well whaddya know: We now have a bona fide state legislator running for Congress against GOP sophomore Leonard Lance, Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula, who is also the chamber's deputy speaker. Democrats lost their top recruit, former Edison mayor Jun Choi, when Choi's home base was moved out of the 7th in redistricting, so that makes this a particularly good get for Team Blue. Defeating Lance will still be very difficult, but as the New Jersey's first and only Indian-American lawmaker, Chivukula may be able to tap into the strong national network of Indian-American donors that seems hungry for a congressional win. (As it happens, some back-of-the-envelope number crunching also suggests that this is one of the most heavily Indian districts in the nation.)

NY-06: Republican NYC councilman Dan Halloran, best known as a Pagan and a Paulist, has announced that he'll run for Gary Ackerman's open House seat. This is a 63-36 Obama district, so I have no idea what Halloran is thinking, except that this race is a free shot (he doesn't have to give up his council post to make a bid). Even state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, whose 51-46 win in 2010 was one of the closest statewide races in recent years, took this district by a 57-40 margin. This is very inhospitable turf for any Republican.

NY-11: The Independence Party isn't shying away from GOP freshman Mike Grimm, despite the serious taint of serious scandal now surrounding him. They're giving Grimm their endorsement, which went to Dem Rep. Mike McMahon last cycle.

NY-19: Attorney Julian Schreibman just scored two more local party endorsements over the weekend, from Democrats in Greene and Columbia Counties. Based on our CDs-by-county chart, that means Schreibman now has the backing of county orgs representing more than half the population of the redrawn district.

NY-27: Former Erie County Executive Chris Collins, who had been widely anticipate to run for Congress ever since redistricting made this seat significantly redder, finally declared over the weekend that he would in fact challenge first-term Dem Kathy Hochul. Collins is probably the strongest possible GOP recruit here, but it's worth noting that he lost his bid for re-election as executive last year in an upset by Democrat Mark Poloncarz. Collins will also have to face off against Iraq vet David Bellavia in the Republican primary, though, at least one other potential opponent is already saying no: Erie County legislator John Mills, who had been discussed as a possible candidate previously, won't run.

PA-12: Rep. Mark Critz's polling is showing slight movement in his direction, but will it be enough for him to ultimately prevail in the Democratic primary just a month from now? Critz's newest internal, again from Global Strategy Group, still has fellow Rep. Jason Altmire leading, but this time it's by a 45-38 margin, as opposed to 47-37 in February. Time's growing short, but that also explains why Critz is dumping most of his warchest on to the airwaves. A win for him seems possible, but it would most certainly be an upset.

PA-17, PA-12, PA-AG: The Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, the state's largest labor union, just handed out endorsements to Democrats in three races: to Rep. Mark Critz in the 12th Congressional District (no surprise), to Rep. Tim Holden in the 17th (perhaps more of a surprise, given Holden's more conservative record—but he's typically had strong ratings from labor groups), and to ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy in the AG's race. The campaign of Holden's primary opponent, attorney Matt Cartwright, sniffed in a response: "The leadership of the AFL-CIO made this endorsement happen. Matt Cartwright is more interested in the support of the actual workers of the AFL-CIO." I really don't know that that's a winning message, unless he's sure the "actual workers" mistrust the very same leaders they elected in the first place.

Cartwright did get one endorsement on Monday, from liberal activist group Democracy for America. But Holden scored another win as well: The Lackawanna County Democratic Committee gave him their backing, which is notable because that's Cartwright's home turf—and because the old 17th doesn't cover any part of Lackawanna, so it's all brand-new to Holden. Cartwright grumped about this one, too, saying Holden was merely "busy gathering up endorsements from political insiders." I'm really not sure this kind of complaining constitutes wise campaign strategy.

Grab Bag:

PA-AG: These Bill Clinton endorsements are starting to get kind of old, no? Now the Big Dog is endorsing former prosecutor Kathleen Kane over ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy in the Democratic primary—and I don't even have to tell you it's because Kane was a big supporter of his wife's in 2008, while Murphy backed Obama. What makes this one extra-annoying is that Kane was something of a PUMA: She participated in a meeting of Clinton supporters hosted by McCain advisor Carly Fiorina in August of 2008, at which point she was still she was "not sure" whether she'd support McCain or Obama. (She later claimed she didn't vote for McCain.) At that late date, with the stakes so high, I find that kind of behavior beyond appalling.

Redistricting Roundup:

NY Redistricting: We have our full package of redistricting goodies now that New York's new congressional map has been finalized: our Google Maps overlay, our classic redistribution analysis, and a full suite of election results by congressional district, for all statewide races in both 2008 and 2010. I'm also re-posting an added bonus, a chart of the new CDs broken down by county. It's useful for seeing how important a given county's endorsement is in a particular district. And remember, you can always find our complete set of redistricting resources at this link.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  WI-01: This makes me want to donate to Zerban (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 05:20:14 AM PDT

  •  McClatchy/Marist poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, askew

    Obama up 46-44 over Romney among registered voters.  Romney up by 1 among independents.  Approval/disapproval 48/47.  

    Plus this puzzler:

    Obama leads among . . . Latinos 48-37.

    . . . .

    A Romney-Bush ticket beats Obama-Biden among Latinos by 57-39, a 18-point margin. By contrast, the Democrats beat a Romney-Rubio ticket among Latinos by 50-46 percent.

    Did they limit their polling to Latinos in Florida or what.

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn. But HBO can kiss my ass for cancelling Luck.

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 05:25:44 AM PDT

  •  NJ - 07 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    I went to high school in NJ-07.  

    The eastern part of that district is OVERWHELMINGLY Indian-American.  Specifically Woodbridge Township from Avenel to Iselin and all along Oak Tree Road into Edison and South Plainfield and Scotch Plains.

    Not sure what the new district looks like but if it retained this part of it, then I'd say it is a very good catch.  Especially since there are many wealthy Indian-Americans who are in the medical field and are tied to JFK hospital.  

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 05:26:52 AM PDT

  •  Well, I'm back (3+ / 0-)

    Girlfriend departed for Portland this morning. Hopefully I'll be joining her in a couple of months.

    Anyway, I've been trying to keep an eye on everything. Happy to see we have a (very awesomely named) candidate to take on Rep. Lance, even though I think he's Teflon and has that seat for as long as he wants it. Ditto Rep. Kline, minus the awesome name of the challenger there. Less happy to see President Clinton's pain-in-the-ass tour continues.

    Restore Our Future is up on the air in the D.C. media market (Maryland) now, running a lame "voted with [then-Sen.] Hillary Clinton to increase the debt ceiling!" attack ad against Rick Santorum, I'm pleased to report. Guess Romney's marionettes still feel the need to try to nail Santorum's coffin shut. There will be fun if Santorum can push Romney here.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 05:30:45 AM PDT

  •  Nate Silver has a long post (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    critiquing the past performance of economic forecasting models.  Too early for me to read the whole thing, though.  Via Bernstein/Masket.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:02:01 AM PDT

    •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

      I don't like what he does with third parties. Ofcourse the results are going to change if you include third parties! We don't for a reason and the theories are built around the assumption that third party vote share doesn't matter (for obvious reasons). Changing the assumptions and then analyzing the models means you are not taking them at face value and not analyzing them at their intended level. This whole post was intellectually dishonest.

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-20 (School), TX-17 (Austin Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:45:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-07 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    again, Chivukula is one of eight (deputy speakers).

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:07:19 AM PDT

  •  Saarland analysis (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, tietack

    Der Spiegel has a good write-up (in English) of Sunday's election in the German state of Saarland.

    http://www.spiegel.de/...

    Apparently the Social Democratic leader Maas, anticipating victory, announced in advance that he would shun the Left party and negotiate a coalition with the center-right CDU.  Many are attributing the SPD's poor showing to this.

    29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    by Marcus Graly on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:20:55 AM PDT

    •  Maas didn't learn from Mitterand (0+ / 0-)

      who embraced the French Communists in '81, thereby reducing them to (relatively) trivial status during his time in power.

      Perhaps he disliked Oskar Lafontaine (who defected from the SPD to the Left party a few years back).

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 07:12:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He was willing to form a coalition with Lafontaine (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        in 2009.  It was the Greens who got cold feet and bailed on the pan-left coalition in favor of the "Jamaica" coalition.  I don't know why Maas changed his mind.  Maybe he thought it would help with moderate voters? Who knows.

        29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        by Marcus Graly on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 07:55:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-10 (0+ / 0-)

    Irvington mayor Wayne Smith is officially in. http://www.politickernj.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:30:15 AM PDT

  •  CA-10 (0+ / 0-)

    On the surface, Denhem rePly shouldn't have to worry about Hernandez. That being said, this sort of thing shows that he is T least taking the challenge seriously.

    •  CA10 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, sapelcovits, jncca

      This isn't a deep red district. Obama won it by 2.6 in 2008, and since then it has only become more Hispanic. Denham was able to hold a state Senate district with unfavorable demographics, but as an orthodox conservative in a poor, heavily Hispanic district I think a pro-ag industry Dem could put him on the defensive. I have that one at lean R.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:44:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MN-2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    savvyspy

    Unfortunately Kline is not going to be in any danger. The real benefit of this district's new boundaries is if/when Kline hangs it up. Yes, I know this is an Obama district. And I know that Kline's voting record is as far right as Bachmann's. But he is inoffensive, smart, and popular with his constituents. We just have to wait him out.

    •  I've Been Meaning To Ask You.... (0+ / 0-)

      ....what kind of vibe are you getting in the Iron Range about Obama in 2012?  His numbers in the core of the Iron Range ran below Kerry's and there's been reason for concern with modestly shrinking DFL margins there for some time now.  Are you sensing that the mood towards Obama in the region is warming some?  I really cannot see Romney playing well at all in the Northland (whereas McCain seemed like the profile of a more-acceptable-than-most Republican) so I'm hoping to hear that you think Obama is poised to improve upon his 2008 numbers.

      •  Obama has a fundamental flaw with Rangers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27

        And he won't overcome it. Romney certainly won't win them over, as he is everything that they loath. But Obama's problem there is his style. A Harvard educated lawyer from Chicago simply is not going to play well with loggers and miners. You also saw this with Obama's weakness in the western part of Pennsylvania, as well as the Yoopers in Michigan. Obama simply does not connect with voters that work with their hands for a living, and I don't see that changing from 08 to 12.

        Don't get me wrong, Obama is still going to win St. Louis County 2:1, and the rest of the range counties like he did last time. But there may be a significant number of disaffected voters that simply don't vote. The Iron Range DFL caucus got whY they wanted, more or less. nd that was a seat for all of them to run in. And other than Anzelc, none of the races are even going to be interesting, so there really Jang going to be a huge driving force to get the average appathetic voter to the polls. The only race that even remotely has people's attention is unseating Cravaack. And if outside interests get their way and Clark gets the nomination, expect a LOT of people in Northern Minnesota hitting the deer stand instead of the polls, as they will essentially be alienated for all oif the races this cycle.

        •  That's interesting (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          He actually did extremely well in working-class rural areas here in Wisconsin, in particular winning the Driftless Area by 20 points, and in general cruising in most of rural western Wisconsin. Apparently he's much better with small farmers than loggers or miners...

          Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

          by fearlessfred14 on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:10:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Eastern Iowa as well (0+ / 0-)

            which of course borders that part of Wisconsin.

            I think it's just part of a trend: rural farmers in the Midwest aren't getting more Republican, but private sector union workers in places like the UP/Duluth/Pittsburgh/Youngstown are

            19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

            by jncca on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:15:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  More Complex Than That.... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              There are a lot of organic farmers in eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin who have far different political interests than the corporate farmers more common in, for example, western Iowa.  The trendline for organic farmers in the last couple of decades has been to Democrats.  The trendline for nonorganic farmers has been Republican.

              The biggest problem in private sector union areas is that the union guys are dying off and their children are nonunion.  If the unions were as active in Pittsburgh and Youngstown as they were 30 years ago, Obama's numbers wouldn't be slumping compared to previous Democratic candidates, but these are culturally conservative voters who are more natural fits for the Republican message, so when the union voice is diminished, they no longer have the nudge to vote for Democrats.

              But again, campaign advertising is the great equalizer.  I know for a fact that if you correlate Minnesota on a county-by-county basis, Obama's margins versus Kerry's align almost perfectly with which media market they're served by.  Counties in Minnesota served by the La Crosse, Fargo, and Grand Forks media markets, where Obama monopolized the airwaves saw 6-12% growth for Obama compared to Kerry.  Counties in Minnesota served by the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Duluth, Mankato, or Austin media markets where McCain monopolized the airwaves saw 0-4% growth for Obama.  This dynamic fits almost perfectly on a county-for-county basis in Minnesota and I suspect you could extrapolate a similar dynamic nationally.

          •  yea (0+ / 0-)

            Interestingly enough, farmers and miners don't like eachother much, even when they are in the same political party. It's a cultural thing.

          •  All About Campaign Advertising.... (0+ / 0-)

            ....where Obama's ad buys dramatically outnumbered McCain's (like Wisconsin, among many other places), Obama overperformed.  Where McCain's ad buys dramatically outnumbered Obama's (such as Minnesota and only a couple other places), Obama underperformed.

            Make no mistake about it.  Advertising works at every level...and it usually works big.

            •  That does offer some explanation (0+ / 0-)

              The Driftless Area is in the Madison media market, which taken as a whole is hopeless for Republicans (it's the 4th most Democratic in the country). Obama ads were everywhere, along with a lot of Assembly-related ads, as the area had several competitive races. I'm not sure that's all of it, as cultural factors are probably at work here. The Wisconsin part of the Duluth market improved much more for Obama than the Minnesota part.

              Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

              by fearlessfred14 on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:52:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Kind Of..... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                fearlessfred14, bumiputera

                The handful of counties in western Wisconsin served by the Minneapolis-St. Paul and Duluth media markets saw little to no growth for Obama.  Go a couple of counties in where voters were served by the Eau Claire media market and suddenly there was massive growth versus John Kerry numbers.   Counties like Douglas, Burnett, and Polk in far northwestern Wisconsin, served by Minnesota media, just barely nudged up for Obama.

        •  I Get The Demographic Issue..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....but I think campaign advertising is either the great equalizer or the great divider here.  In demographically similar northern Wisconsin, Obama was winning counties that went for Bob Dole in 2008, simply because he monopolized the airwaves in the state.  By contrast, McCain monopolized the airwaves in the Minnesota media market and suppressed Obama's margins.  The impact of advertising in the 2008 campaign confirmed for me the power of money in politics, meaning there's a great deal to be concerned about nationally this year with the uncharted territory of Romney's SuperPAC death star.

          And my suspicion is that the final result of the disconnect to all candidates in the Iron Range will be a largely national issue in a race between Obama and Romney, and the result will be the lowest turnout Presidential election since at least 2000 and quite possibly since 1996.

  •  NJ-06 (0+ / 0-)

    after losing the Monmouth County GOP endorsement (despite being a former countywide elected official) Anna Little secures the Middlesex County endorsement: http://www.politickernj.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:35:55 AM PDT

  •  MD-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, KingofSpades, Khun David

    Detestable conservadem Anthony Muse pulling a Brad Schneider, despite Obama having actually endorsed Ben Cardin. http://www.marylandjuice.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:38:41 AM PDT

  •  MD-06 (0+ / 0-)

    Person (sounds like a Republican rather than a Delaney supporter) files ethics complaint against Rob Garagiola: http://www.marylandjuice.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:40:36 AM PDT

  •  Here comes Maggie, etch-a-sketch at the ready, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PinHole, KingofSpades

    announcing her policy positions will be flavored lime with small marshmallows and will be presented in in a flopping fish mold.

    Slow thinkers - keep right

    by Dave the Wave on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 06:45:46 AM PDT

  •  Heard Lugar's radio ad yesterday (0+ / 0-)

    what a loser!  Hopefully the very fact that he lives out of state and that is the big news here will doom him.  Of course, that news is less important to hoosiers than P. Manning going to the Broncos!

  •  Maggie Brooks running in the new NY #25, (0+ / 0-)

    who you reference at the beginning of the post, has already decided her FOREIGN POLICY.

    According to this article in the Rochester D&C:

    The money quote from this is:

    Nights to Honor Israel are one of the main objectives of David Brog’s group (Christians United for Israel), which claims more than 1 million members supporting such gatherings in at least 40 other major U.S. cities.
    There also are more than 90 college chapters, including one at Roberts Wesleyan College that brought 70 students to the event Sunday.

    More than 1,000 attended the event including both Christians and Jews.

    Rochester was the first city in the northeast to host such an event in 2007. Mayor Thomas Richards (D), Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks (R) and state Sen. Joseph Robach, R-Greece, were among those who attended Sunday.  Brooks called the event “one of the most powerful and important” annual events in the area.

    Brog, the keynote speaker, spoke of the United States’ “struggle to build stable, pro-American democracies in Iraq ... in Afghanistan. Look what we’ve gotten for our trouble.”

    Now I don't mean to step into the great Israeli Palestinian divide here.  But what is apparent, given her earlier quote cited above by David Nir, is she has already made up her mind by appearing at such a fundy Christian rally, and she is just waiting until she can put the talking points package together with her advisers.
    *****
    My observation from slightly afar, is that Louise Slaughter, the long-time Dem Rep for much of Monroe Co. (Rochester) has been coasting lately without too much opposition.  She definitely needs to sharpen up and do a better job in communicating with local people.  She has rightfully been criticized for not holding any local town halls for over 3-4 yrs, and it makes her look like a coward.  

    Dan Maffei (D), in the District just to the east (Syracuse) lost after one term in Congress to the odious Ann Marie Buerkle, in part to just this issue, which was pounded relentlessly by the local AM radio & Tea Partiers.

    I am on a regional legislative committee for a health issue, and it is impossible for us to even get an appointment to meet with Rep Slaughter or her staff.

    •  Buerkle is toast (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, itskevin

      She pulled out her 2010 race by an incredibly thin margin (it went to a recount), and that was in a strong GOP wave year.

      Her new district is less GOP-friendly, and the additional Democratic turnout in the city of Syracuse for the presidential election ought to do her in.

      Intended to be a factual statement.

      by ipsos on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:07:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-25 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MotleyC, askew

    Maggie Brooks has been an embarrassment to Rochester/Monroe County since 1995, whereas Louise Slaughter has been a credit to the community. If Brooks managed to replace Slaughter it would be nothing short of a travesty.

    Last I knew Slaughter represented the 28th, but I'm guessing this article's labeling is the result of some redistricting.

    "You try to vote or participate in the government/ and the muh'fuckin' Democrats is actin' like Republicans" ~ Kweli -8.00, -6.56

    by joey c on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 07:19:07 AM PDT

    •  Your right (0+ / 0-)

      Maggie Crooks has been horrible for the Rochester area. I really hope that she doesn't beat Louise in November. It would be such as shame to replace a good congress person with a worthless turd like Maggie.

    •  It is. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      After a decade in which Monroe County has been divided among four (!) districts, the redistricting creates a new NY-25 that's all of Monroe County (except Wheatland, Mendon, Rush and Hamlin) and nothing else. Louise loses the Buffalo end of her old NY-28.

      Intended to be a factual statement.

      by ipsos on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:06:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  well, or the most part (0+ / 0-)

        the news maps have drawn a lot of heat, but that change in isolation sounds sensible to me.

        OTOH, the piece in the Times this weekend that mentioned how the populations of all State Senate districts north of the Bronx vary systematically such that all those districts are underpopulated when compared with the state average, while all the districts for NYC are overpopulated, indicates that this process is still a gerrymandering sham.

        "You try to vote or participate in the government/ and the muh'fuckin' Democrats is actin' like Republicans" ~ Kweli -8.00, -6.56

        by joey c on Tue Apr 03, 2012 at 10:29:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PA-SD-40 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades

    Last week, it was former PA Speaker John Perzel (R) being sentenced to up to 5 years for misuse of office; yesterday, St. Sen. Jane Orie (R) sets up a trip to the hoosegow:

    State Sen. Jane Orie stood emotionless Monday as the foreman of her Allegheny County jury pronounced her guilty on 14 of 24 criminal counts against her -- five of them felonies.

    She showed no reaction, either, when the judge presiding over her corruption case ruled that the sitting Republican from McCandless would no longer be free on her own recognizance but now must wear an electronic ankle bracelet pending her May 21 sentencing.

    She could face incarceration, though Assistant District Attorney Lawrence Claus would not say if he would seek it. Instead, he said that each felony charge could result in seven years in prison....

    Mr. Costopoulos was unsure if his client would step down from her 40th District seat but expected a decision soon.

    "I know she'll make the right decision," he said after the jury announced its verdict just before 6 p.m.

    "She's always made decisions in the best interest of her constituents."

    Ms. Orie left the courthouse quickly with no comment, along with a brother, attorney Jack Orie, and sister, Janine Orie, who is also facing criminal charges as an administrative assistant for another sister, state Supreme Court Justice Joan Orie Melvin.

    The justice has previously been identified as the target of a grand jury investigation. She has not been charged.

  •  I want to apologize (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    okiedem, jncca, sacman701, James Allen, askew

    to everyone in the community for the language I used. It wasn't called for.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 07:45:46 AM PDT

  •  Has anyone else noticed how much (0+ / 0-)

    press Cynthia Dill is getting from this petition? She knows how to play the game. If anything else she'll probably be the Democratic nominee.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 07:52:32 AM PDT

    •  hopefully (0+ / 0-)

      that makes her the frontrunner for Pingree's House seat  when Pingree moves us (Dill's from the First, right?)

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:18:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  UGH bad signs at SCOTUS (0+ / 0-)

    Kennedy seems to be siding with the conservative justices regarding the permissibility of the mandate under the commerce clause. I won't get too down into the legal weeds, but that's definitely a sign he could be leaning towards throwing it out. I actually don't think this would end up hurting Obama too much though it could get dicey if they sever everything but the mandate and Republicans refuse to remove the ban on pre-existing conditions and a couple other related issues in seeking to torpedo the entire law.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/...

    10:48 amTuesday's Argumentsby Louise RadnofskyAdd a Comment
    But Justice Kennedy has probed Mr. Verrilli on whether the same reasoning could apply to food, and what limits, if any, there are to government powers under his argument.

    10:47 amTuesday's Argumentsby Louise RadnofskyAdd a Comment
    Mr. Verrilli is arguing that Congress is just regulating the health-care market in which people are already participating, not going into new territory by forcing them to buy a product, in the form of insurance coverage.

    10:47 amTuesday's Argumentsby Louise RadnofskyAdd a Comment
    Tough questions came from the possible Supreme Court swing vote, Justice Anthony Kennedy, in the first thirty minutes of oral argument Tuesday morning on whether the federal government can require most Americans to carry insurance or pay a fee.

    Mr. Kennedy has been challenging Solicitor General Donald Verrilli to answer what the justice says is a "very heavy burden of justification" to show where the Constitution authorizes Congress to change the relation of the individual to the government.

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:00:17 AM PDT

    •  Yeah Roberts And Kennedy Were Considered..... (0+ / 0-)

      ...the most likely to side with the administration's argument, and the language of both of them yesterday suggested their mind is already made up against.  

      •  But there was this too: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:05:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I really doubt Roberts will be the fifth justice (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, James Allen

          I just don't see him being comfortable being the fifth justice siding with the liberals in a 5-4. He might do so in a 6-3 but I think he's ultimately probably not willing to actually be the deciding vote in favor of the liberal ruling in such a politicized case.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:08:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            In fact, I think 6-3 is much more likely than 5-4.

            •  probably either 6-3 upholding or 5-4 striking down (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32

              I don't want to be too chicken-littleish but I think the latter is looking more likely now. Although that could lead to a really awkward showdown with Republicans if SCOTUS doesn't sever some related provisions (which I think they will so it's probably a non-issue) the bright side is that it would make SCOTUS look very partisan underline the importance of Obama winning to get a Democratic (and I do mean that) majority on the court -- while likely reducing Republican enthusiasm by making them feel like they have a "win".

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:23:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah, according to Tom Goldstein (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin

                of SCOTUS blog, the 4 liberal justices were sympathetic to the government's arguments.

                He does seem to say, not to read into it too much, given that we've only heard one side of the argument. I think everyone expected tough questions from the conservative justices.  One thing, I havent seen is the SG's responses to the conservative justices.

                link.

              •  Oh, and I think having any part of (0+ / 0-)

                the law struck down would be bad news for Obama. But I suppose if it was 5-4, then it would highlight the ideological differences of the court. Some have speculated that Roberts might be concerned about that, and this, he would join the 5 justices if they vote to uphold the law. But obviously, the issue is getting Kennedy's support.

          •  yes, he's a partisan first. (0+ / 0-)

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 11:24:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Hmmm...Clearly I'm No Lawyer..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....when I heard Roberts saying "a mandate is a command" yesterday, I thought it was bad news for the administration.

          •  It's odd (0+ / 0-)

            People on both sides have said that comment supports their side.

            Since yesterday was about whether to even hear the case until 2015, I dont know if we should read that much into their comments.  

    •  Well, let's see what happens after (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      the other side argues.

      I mean, I would expect tough questions for both sides. I dont know how much you can read into this right now.

  •  Part of the reason Romney's image is soured. (0+ / 0-)

    His associated third-party spending group has spent over 30 times as much money on negative ads than on positive ones.
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    What they didn't count on was the fact that scorched earth tactics are overkill.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:03:33 AM PDT

  •  Finger-in-the-wind Maggie Brooks... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, spiderdem

    has a reputation here in Monroe County as an incredibly dominant political figure, and it's not a well-deserved rep at all.

    Her entire career has been spent running in the off-off-year (odd-numbered-years) county elections that draw minimal voter turnout, entirely from the white suburbs that are her base.

    Last year, against token Democratic opposition, she won reelection as county executive with 77,000 votes (58% of total turnout of 140,000 votes.)

    In 2008, Obama's victory margin over McCain across Monroe County was 63,000 votes (out of 350,000 or so total votes cast in the race.) The new 25th is all of Monroe County save for four smallish Republican-dominated towns on the periphery, Hamlin, Wheatland, Mendon and Rush.

    If all goes well, it's the Obama-friendly 2008 electorate that will be turning out this November not the Maggie-friendly electorate she's counted on for the last few races.  

    Local speculation is that Maggie's in the race this year not to win, but to raise money and make herself the inevitable candidate for a 2014 off-year rematch against an 84-year-old Louise, if Louise stands for re-election at all.

    Unfortunately, the Monroe County Dems don't have a strong bench of candidates to replace Louise when the time comes to replace her. They didn't run a county executive candidate against Maggie at all in 2007, and they put no money behind their 2011 candidate in the race, Sandy Frankel. (Which makes it remarkable that Sandy still pulled out 41% of the vote, and again suggests that Maggie's hardly the electoral juggernaut she makes herself out to be.)

    Intended to be a factual statement.

    by ipsos on Tue Mar 27, 2012 at 08:04:18 AM PDT

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