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Leading Off:
• NJ-07: The news from Monday that Dems unexpectedly got a strong candidate in the GOP-leaning 7th, state Assembly deputy speaker Upendra Chivukula, got me wondering whether the 7th is the most Indian-American-intensive district in the nation, giving him something of a built-in boost. (There's a large Indian-American population in the suburbs along I-95 between Newark and Trenton.) It's not, but it's close, at #5 in the nation, with 6.3% of its population of Asian Indian ancestry. That's using the old lines—the Census Bureau doesn't have info for the new lines yet. That figure may have gone down a small bit post-redistricting, though, to the benefit of Rush Holt's next-door NJ-12, which is already #3.
The full top 10 (again, using the old numbering scheme) are: NY-06 (9.4%), CA-13 (8.1%, and where Ro Khanna may become the next Rep. after a Pete Stark retirement), NJ-12 (7.3%), CA-15 (7.3%), NJ-07 (6.3%), NJ-06 (6.2%), CA-14 (5.6%), NY-05 (4.9%), IL-06 (4.7%), and NY-09 (4.5%). (David Jarman)
Senate:
• IN-Sen: Republican Sen. Dick Lugar's explanation of why the healthcare legislation he supported in 1993—which included a mandate, which he now claims is unconstitutional—is different from the Affordable Care Act reaches Sarah Palin levels of incoherence:
"We were thinking, as many senators always have, about adequate health care for all Americans — how in a humane way people could be served," he said. "That issue of taxation and a penalty, as I recall, was not so prominent in our '93 discussions, which ultimately did not go anywhere, but were an attempt even then to think through how coverage might occur for many Americans who clearly were not covered."
Did you understand that? Because I surely didn't. Meanwhile,
this headline is just hilarious:
Indiana photographer asks Lugar to stop using Mourdock shot from tea party 'Hunks' calendar
•
MA-Sen: I'd figured that Boston mayor Tom Menino had managed to get over the fact that national Democrats usurped his king-making prerogatives when, against his wishes, they helped make Elizabeth Warren the
de facto Dem nominee to take on Sen. Scott Brown. I figured wrong. Menino, who tried to throw a few caltrops Warren's way last fall, had been silent for a long time, but he decided to open his yap on Monday and declare that he hadn't yet made up his mind (!) about which candidate he'd support in the fall. Said Menino: "When you vote, it's a secret ballot." Said me: You're a fucking jerk.
• ME-Sen: This is pathetic. On Monday, we told you that a funny Angus King parody account had gotten yanked from Twitter; at the time, a spokeswoman for King said she'd "look into whether the campaign asked the account to be suspended." Well, whaddya know—she didn't have to look far! Later that same day, the same spokeswoman admitted that "[i]t was a campaign decision to report this impersonator of Angus King on Twitter." Really, really weak that King did this—it makes him look scared of some random Twitter account, and what's more, this kind of thing is impossible to quash: King Angus II was immediately up and at it again.
While we're on the topic, I'm really starting to like state Sen. Cynthia Dill, one of four Democrats running for Senate:
"Maine voters deserve to know who their next U.S. senator is going to support to lead the Senate," Dill told The Hill. "I just can't imagine an informed electorate would not want to know that until after the election." [...]
"If the governor knows who he's going to support and is not telling us, that's not the kind of change I'm looking for in Washington," Dill said. "If he doesn't know, it strikes me as even more concerning."
•
ND-Sen: North Dakota Republicans like to handle their nominations at their statewide convention, when losing candidates typically bow out after delegates make their picks. But there's no legal requirement to abide by the results of the convention (which is coming up this weekend), and office-seekers can continue on to the June primary. That's exactly what perennial candidate Duane Sand now says he'll do, which creates an added burden for freshman Rep. Rick Berg. (Meanwhile, the only Democrat running, former state AG Heidi Heitkamp, will be free to campaign with an eye toward the general election.) Republicans will also have to deal with a primary fight for Berg's open House seat, since Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer has said for some time that he plans on forging ahead no matter what happens at the convention.
• NE-Sen: PPP is out with their new Nebraska Senate poll, and the numbers are very ugly for ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey. He does no better than 38% against any Republican; he does considerably worse than retiring Sen. Ben Nelson did in PPP's last poll in October; and his favorables have also really plummeted since that time. It's hard to see a path to victory here. PPP also tested the GOP primary, where AG Jon Bruning has a wide lead; you can check out all the results (and our analysis) at the link.
• OH-Sen: Republican Josh Mandel is like the sarlacc of politics: In his campaign lies a new definition of chutzpah and scumbaggery. Check out his latest:
Others back down or soften their rhetoric once their statements have been publicly scrutinized, but Mandel doubles down. Consider his response in an interview last week when asked again to identify a single Ohio job that went to China because of a decisive vote by Brown.
"If that's the level of specificity you're looking for, you're the reporters—you go do the grunt work," said Mandel, who lives in Beachwood. "Any reporter who doesn't believe Sherrod Brown is responsible for jobs going to China is simply out of touch."
PolitiFact Ohio already had done the "grunt work" and found that the examples cited by Mandel's campaign failed to back up his claim, hence the Pants on Fire rating. Right or wrong, Mandel vowed to repeat the assertion "again and again" and said he sees no downside.
Unlike so many other cases when Republicans lie, though, Mandel actually seems to be taking some heat from the press over this. Still, I don't have my hopes up that he'll be forced to back down, but he might wind up paying a price that Republican politicians generally aren't accustomed to paying for their fabrications.
• OH-Sen: Rasmussen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 43 (44), Josh Mandel (R): 43 (40)
Gubernatorial:
• MA-Gov: PPP's batch of Bay State miscellany is unusually meaty, with numbers on gay marriage, medical marijuana, assisted suicide, Kerry vs. Brown, and, most important, an early look at possible 2014 gubernatorial matchups. They find AG Martha Coakley leading 2010 GOP nominee Charlie Baker 49-29, while Lt. Gov. Tim Murray is up 37-32 and Treasurer Steve Grossman has a 37-30 edge. As you'd expect, Grossman and Murray are largely unknown, and a majority of Massachusetts voters have already forgotten who Baker is. But surprisingly, Coakley's numbers have sharply rebounded since her disastrous Senate campaign: Her favorables are now at 49-30, up from 44-51 in January of 2010.
• MO-Gov: Another sign of just how unhappy Missouri Republicans are with their gubernatorial field: Anti-abortion and anti-stem cell activist Fred Sauer just jumped in at the filing deadline. That might sound like a bit of a Some Dude-ish profile, but Sauer seems to have some money, and he's also been a fairly serious political donor, in particular with regard to supporting his own organization, the Missouri Roundtable for Life. However, he'll have to compete with Bill Randles on the wingnut endorsement circuit, so his entry might be good news for wealthy businessman Dave Spence.
• WI-Gov: Marquette Law School has a new survey of the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall, and they show the race against Scott Walker tightening. We'll bring you a full post later today.
• WI-Gov: A wrinkle in Wisconsin law will allow Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett to collect a whole bunch more cash before he enters the gubernatorial race—should he choose to do so. For one, he can transfer money from his mayoral account to a statewide account, and two, he can raise money from lobbyists—something current candidates for state office can't do. That could provide a windfall for Barrett, who just reported having $453K in the bank. Barrett, a Democrat, has promised an announcement about his recall intentions before the mayoral election, which is on April 3.
House:
• CA-31: Is the Republican battle in CA-31 starting to heat up? Carpetbagging Rep. Gary Miller, who is vying with state Sen. Bob Dutton to be the Republican standard-bearer, just received the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. But note that on multiple occasions this cycle, we've see the national Chamber head in a different direction from local affiliates, so keep an eye on how that plays out here.
• FL-26: God. State Rep. Luis Garcia's congressional bid is so beyond done at this point. His campaign manager and consultant both just left his already-flailing campaign, and Garcia apparently has no plans to replace them but will run things himself. (!!!) He's also doused whatever remained of his bridge to the establishment in kerosene and torched the damn thing, saying: "You know what the DCCC, in my book, stands for. The double-crossers, connivers and cowards."
Meanwhile, Democrats aren't having much luck finding a replacement. The ultra-lousy Alex Penelas still hasn't made up his mind, and another Dem, former Miami-Dade Commissioner Jimmy Morales, says flat-out that he's not running.
• IL-13: A week later and there's still no call in the Democratic primary in IL-13, where David Gill leads Matt Goetten by 143 votes according to the election night tally. But there are still absentee votes to be counted, and while the exact number is unknown, as long as ballots were mailed on time, they're valid if they're received up to 14 days after the election.
What's more, the state Board of Elections won't certify results until April 20 (!), and a recount can't be sought until that time. And one may be necessary, given the irregularities in Macoupin County, where paper ballots were too large for the machines meant to read them. Indeed, according to Sen. Dick Durbin (a Goetten backer), officials in Macoupin are "not sure they counted all of them." On top of that, there's the odd fact that more votes were cast in the totally uncompetitive race for coroner (won 87-13) than for Congress. Not sure how to account for that, though perhaps ballot position or arrangement was responsible.
• IN-05: This fairly odd ad from Marion mayor Wayne Seybold (who is seeking the GOP nomination in this open seat) tries to invoke his glory days as an Olympic figure skater... by having him roller-blade through the entire spot.
• NJ-09: This would be quite the game-changer: Former Englewood mayor Michael Wildes says he's leaning toward entering the Democratic primary in the redrawn 9th, and he sounds quite serious about it. This, of course, is the marquee race between two sitting members of Congress: Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman, though a Wildes candidacy would be likely to hurt the latter much more than the former. Rothman himself was also once mayor of Englewood, and that area constitutes his geographic base, one that Wildes would be apt to eat into. Indeed, PolitickerNJ even speculated that Wildes might be coordinating with Pascrell to undermine Rothman, something he of course denied.
Wildes has already conducted polling (he leaked a few fragmentary details to Politicker), and in fact has $700K in the bank ready to go. Indeed, he's been preparing for years, explaining on his website some time ago that he was opening a congressional account for an unspecified "future race." In fact, he did that all the way back in 2004 and now has a fat pile of cash at his disposal. So I actually believe Wildes when he says that he'd only be in it to win it—he doesn't sound like anyone's stalking horse.
• NY-06: This could wind up being a big difference-maker in the Democratic primary, which is just three months away: EMILY's List just endorsed Assemblywoman Grace Meng, who is vying with Assemblyman Rory Lancman and NYC councilwoman Liz Crowley for the nomination. The cash infusion an EMILY's nod is often good for can be considerable. Of course, with Democrats desperately needing to take back the House and all three candidates strong on women's issues, this hardly seems like a race worth getting involved in for EMILY's List—though of course this is the sort of thing they do all the time.
• NY-23: There's now a third Democrat looking to take on GOP freshman Tom Reed: Attorney Melissa Dobson is joining the field that already includes Tompkins County legislator Nate Shinagawa and attorney Leslie Danks Burke.
• PA-17: Democratic attorney Matt Cartwright is out with a couple of new ads (both are at the link), and I actually like the themes of both of them—contrasting various corporate tax breaks (think Lear jets) with the lack of same for child-care expenses. I just don't think the production values are all that awesome, and I'm not sure Cartwright is the best narrator. Still, I think the points he raises are pretty good.
• PA-17, PA-18: The well-nigh inscrutable Campaign for Primary Accountability plans to spend $200K apiece to defeat a couple of Pennsylvania incumbents named Tim next month: Dem Rep. Tim Holden in the 17th (who is being challenged from the left by attorney Matt Cartwright), and GOP Rep. Tim Murphy (who is being challenged from the right by former congressional aide Evan Feinberg). Nothing the CPA does really makes sense.
• WA-01: The end of the first quarter is almost upon us, and candidates have already begun leaking hints about their fundraising. (FEC reports aren't due until April 15.) Democrat Suzan DelBene is among the first to give a peek, saying she's pulled in $300K over the last two-and-a-half months.
Other Races:
• PA-St. Sen: Are there any prominent state legislators left in Pennsylvania who aren't in prison or on their way? Hot on the heels of recent convictions of John Perzel, Mike Veon, and Bill DeWeese, now it's Republican state Sen. Jane Orie's turn. She was just found guilty on 14 felony counts of theft of services, conflict of interest, and forgery. (You might remember her original trial last year turned into a mistrial bombshell when it was discovered that exculpatory documents her team offered were forged, and poorly so.)
The court promises swift sentencing, meaning there'll be enough of a time for a special election... though don't get your hopes up for a Democratic pickup in SD-40, mostly in southern Butler County in the northern Pittsburgh suburbs, as this district went 60-40 for McCain. (The GOP has 30-20 control over the Senate, a steep hill for the Dems to take over.) Interestingly, the main name being floated for a GOP replacement is ex-Rep. Melissa Hart, who was considered a Beltway up-and-comer up until the moment of her surprise loss to Jason Altmire in 2006, and apparently is trying to hit the "reset" button on her political career. (David Jarman)
Grab Bag:
• Polltopia: Bowing to popular demand, we suggest everyone vote for PPP to poll Nevada this weekend. Next time, though, if New Mexico is an option, we're gonna freep for that!
Redistricting Roundup:
• FL Redistricting: Republicans in the Florida House had promised to once again rubber-stamp whatever new map their Senate counterparts came up with in response to the state supreme court ordering them to draw a new one—just as each chamber had done for the other's map the first go-round. But interestingly, the new Senate lines passed by a much closer-than-expected 61-47 margin, thanks to defections by 11 mostly Cuban Republicans. They were upset that the map includes only three Hispanic districts in South Florida, rather than four. (Here's some backstory.) Meanwhile, the Florida Democratic Party, which believes that the new map is still seriously flawed, put out a statement just five words long: "We'll see you in court."
Switching gears to the fight over the federal map, I can't imagine the trial court hearing the lawsuit over Florida's new congressional lines would ever adopt a map submitted by the state Democratic Party wholesale, but if you'd like to see the plan the FDP has proposed, you can do so here. One analysis says the map would create 13 Republican seats, 11 Democratic seats, and three swing seats.