Tom Barrett, in younger and more mustachioed days
Marquette Univ. Law School. 3/22-25. Registered voters. MoE ±3.8% (±5.2% for Democratic primary sample). (
1/19-22 in parentheses):
Tom Barrett (D): 45 (44)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 47 (50)
Kathleen Falk (D): 45 (42)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 49 (49)
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 41 (--)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 49 (--)
Doug La Folette (D): 42 (--)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 49 (--)
Tom Barrett (D): 36
Kathleen Falk (D): 29
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 8
Doug La Follette (D): 8
Undecided: 17
Kathleen Falk (D): 54
Doug La Follette (D): 15
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 12
Undecided: 18
The Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election is sneaking up on us: The Democratic primary is only a little more than a month away, on May 8, and the general election is set for June 5. If you remember the state Senate recall elections of last year, you know how the system works in Wisconsin. Unlike many other states, where a recall election is a "yes" or "no" vote on whether to keep an incumbent which creates a vacancy if the recall is successful, under Wisconsin law, replacement is dealt with on the same day; the incumbent under recall is pitted against an opponent from the opposite party, and if he's recalled, the opponent takes over. In a way, that makes a recall harder, because in most other states, you actually can beat someone with no one, if that someone sucks enough. In Wisconsin, you have to run an actual person against the recallee, and with Russ Feingold's decision not to run, the Democrats don't readily have a magic bullet available who outpolls Scott Walker.
As with most other polls we've seen of the recall race, it's looking like a game of inches, with most people having made up their minds long ago amidst Wisconsin's hyper-polarized environment, and the battle being over the last few undecided swing voters. (Public Policy Polling's February poll of the race gave small leads to Barrett and Falk, but that's the only poll where actual named Democrats, as opposed to Generic D, have led.) This month's sample from Marquette shows some improvement for the Democrats since their previous poll in January, though still with a thin Walker advantage.
The two likeliest Democratic nominees, Milwaukee mayor, ex-representative, and '10 gubernatorial race loser Tom Barrett and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, are both within the margin of error against Walker. Falk is clearly getting better-known, as she has 34 percent unknowns, down from 56 percent in January, thanks to significant TV advertising. Barrett remains well-known from his previous run, basically unchanged at 38 percent unknown (down from 39 percent in January). (One other interesting sidenote: Barrett and Falk have run against each other before, both losing the three-way 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary to eventual Gov. Jim Doyle.)
Barrett, however, has higher favorables among the sample of Democratic primary voters (47/19, compared with Falk's 39/29); though Falk is organized labor's preferred candidate, Barrett has a significant lead over her in the primary. Barrett, however, hasn't declared his candidacy yet (though his actions this week seem to be pointing toward a run), and if he doesn't run, Falk has a wide lead over the two lesser-known candidates. (The lesser-known part seems odd for Doug La Follette, since he has been the state's Secretary of State for several decades and is part of Wisconsin's iconic political family.) At any rate, Barrett is promising an announcement by April 3, though, so things will start to gel soon.