Skip to main content

The main polling story today, though it is not the only data point on this Friday, is the new NBC/Marist poll out of the Badger State. Though there are some quirks (their downballot polling is a bit strange), the clear message is twofold: Mitt Romney might win the battle (the GOP primary this coming Tuesday), but he is in poor position to win the war (the state's 10 electoral votes) in November.

In those national tracking polls, Gallup has Romney pulling away again in the primary sweepstakes, but the House of Ras reverses field today and puts the president back in front of Mittens in November.

I smell a pattern here.

GOP (PRESIDENTIAL) PRIMARY POLLS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 42, Santorum 27, Gingrich 11, Paul 10

WISCONSIN (NBC/Marist): Romney 40, Santorum 33, Paul 11, Gingrich 8

WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Romney 44, Santorum 34, Gingrich 7, Paul 7

WISCONSIN (WPR/St. Norberts College): Romney 37, Santorum 32, Paul 8, Gingrich 4

(PRESIDENTIAL) GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45); Obama d. Santorum (47-42)

"CORE FOUR STATES"—FL, NC, OH, VA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-44); Obama d. Santorum (49-42)

WISCONSIN (NBC/Marist): Obama d. Santorum (51-38); Obama d. Paul (51-36); Obama d. Romney (52-35); Obama d. Gingrich (56-31)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
WI-GOV (NBC/Marist): "Democratic candidate" 48, Gov. Scott Walker (R) 46

WI-SEN (NBC/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 45, "Republican candidate" 40

A thought or two about today's numbers, right after the jump...

  • First off, about those downballot polls. My colleague David Nir today noted the oddity of Marist (polling on behalf of NBC) using generic candidates in both the gubernatorial and Senate elections in their Wisconsin poll. After all, not only are the main players on both sides generally known, there are even commonly accepted leaders in the races where they chose to use generic candidates (Milwaukee's Democratic Mayor, Tom Barrett, in the gubernatorial race, and former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson in the Senate race). My suspicion is twofold—one, they were treating these downballot races as sort of an afterthought, and two, they didn't want to presume a favorite in a multi candidate field. To do those downballot races "right", they'd have to have polled Kathleen Falk in the gubernatorial race for the Democrats (at a minimum, because there's also LaFollette and Vinehout), and they'd have to have polled Neumann and Fitzgerald in the Senate race. Rather than poll multiple options, they went generic. It makes it possible to poll both races in just two questions, but I think it plays hell with the validity of the responses. Tommy Thompson, for example, has done considerably better than "generic Republican" did here.
  • Remember the good ole days, when Rick Santorum's "authenticity" and cultural conservatism were supposed to bring home the heartland for him? Yeah, about that—once again, we see Santorum poised to lose a midwestern state by a single-digit margin. And with Rasmussen showing Romney up close to twenty points in Maryland (and, notably, no pollster as of yet even bothering to join the House of Ras in polling Maryland), it looks like Santorum will have to wait until his home state votes in over three weeks to notch a win.
  • On the subject of notching a win, Barack Obama looks like he has the Badger State on lockdown. A couple of days after the House of Ras gave Obama a double-digit edge over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, the NBC/Marist poll takes it even a step further, stretching the lead out for the incumbent.
  • One final, intriguing, item from the Marist poll—if anyone needs evidence of how badly the primary season has worn out the welcome for Mitt Romney with the general electorate, look no further than this poll. Mitt Romney actually performs worse when paired with Barack Obama than either Rick Santorum or Ron Paul. Only the almost comically unpopular Newt Gingrich is actually less electable than Romney right now in Wisconsin. What's more—if you go back through previous editions of the Wrap (or check out the Weekend Digest), this is not the first time that particular phenomenon has reared its head. There was a time when Romney was clearly more palatable with the general electorate than the rest of his GOP colleagues. That time, for the moment at least, has passed.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Mar 30, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site