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Leading Off:
• WI-Gov: Some big news dropped late on Friday in the Wisconsin recall election, where Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett just announced that he will indeed challenge Gov. Scott Walker. That gives Democrats their strongest candidate (to judge by the polling), though Barrett will first have to deal with a Democratic primary (however, he leads in the polling on that front). Click the link for more details in our full post at Daily Kos Elections.
Earlier in the day, the state's Government Accountability Board finally made it official, certifying recall elections for six Republicans: In addition to Walker, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and four state senators will also go before voters. (Though one of the senators recently resigned, the recall will still go forward.) Primaries will take place on May 8 and the general election will be held on June 5 for all contests, though if a particular race does not require a primary, then May 8 will serve as the general election date. The candidate filing deadline is April 10.
Senate:
• IN-Sen: What a weird ad. A super PAC backing GOP Sen. Dick Lugar is airing a new ad attacking not Lugar's primary opponent, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, but former congressman Chris Chocola, who now heads the Club for Growth, which is supporting Mourdock. Talk about inside baseball. Yeah, as it happens, Chocola is from Indiana, but he hasn't been in office in over half a decade and in any event, no one knows or cares who he is. It's a mystifying choice, and one which doesn't speak well of Lugar's allies' ability to drag him over the finish line. They seriously have no better lines of attack on Mourdock? Anyhow, you can watch the ad at the link.
Meanwhile, Lugar finally got some sorta good news on Friday from the Marion County Election Board: He can register to vote in Indiana using the address of the farm he owns. You probably recall that Lugar recently was deemed unable to register to vote at the Indianapolis residence he's been registered at for decades because he hadn't lived their in ages. As for the farm, he's said conditions there are "rustic" and not suitable for living—and he also said it wouldn't be "truthful" to declare that he lives at the farm because, well, he doesn't live there. (He didn't live at the other residence either, though, so it's strange that he cares about truthfulness all of a sudden.)
In any event, as we say, the news is only "sorta good" because it just keeps underscoring the problem that threatens to swamp him, if not in the primary, then in the general: that he just doesn't appear to live in Indiana. So while Lugar can at least continue voting for himself, this latest development just brings the bad optics back to the forefront. (And his campaign hasn't helped matters, with their recent admission that he's spent 1,805 days in Indiana... in the last 36 years!)
But that's not the end of the story, at least for us here at Daily Kos Elections. Lugar's farm isn't some small stretch of land—it's an enormous 604 acres, which is almost one square mile. And it isn't out in the boonies, either: It's located in Marion County, which is coterminous with the city of Indianapolis. So we're talking suburban at best, and where could such a huge "farm" fit? It turns out it's in the southeastern corner of the county:
(click for larger)
It's pretty much all of those brown fields and woodlands to the south and east of the "A" flag, between the road and the river. You can see why Lugar's calling it "rustic"; why, he'd have to drive almost a mile to get to the nearest Domino's Pizza!
But there's actually a second punch line here. Lugar's long claimed that he moved to Virginia when he was elected to the Senate in the late '70s because it was "too expensive... to maintain two houses." And indeed, Lugar also ranks near the bottom of the Senate in terms of personal net worth. But that's because this supposedly rustic farm remains undeveloped, and as such has an assessed value of "only" $280,200.
Now, suburban Indianapolis is not downtown Manhattan, but this is still a gigantic and well-situated tract which would be worth many, many millions if it were developed. Lugar may have sentimental reasons for not doing so, or perhaps environmental concerns (just kidding about that last one). But whatever the reason, he's sitting on a massive, untapped cash cow, and any attempt to plead poverty should ring just as hollow as his claims that he's still a genuine Hoosier. (David Jarman & David Nir)
• ND-Sen: A nice first ad from Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, who touts her humble upbringing in an introductory bio spot. The Hill says the buy is for $37K, which obviously is not a huge sum, but in a very small state like North Dakota, it's not chump change, either. You can watch the ad at the link or below:
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, I usually ignore former pizza magnate Herman Cain, and I also usually ignore perennial candidate Duane Sand, but when these two great tastes
get together, how can I keep ignoring them? Alright, I can't really say that I care about the fact that Cain schlepped his ass to North Dakota to stump for Sand as such, but it occurs to me that someone looking to ratfuck the GOP might want to seriously considering trying to help Sand derail Rep. Rick Berg as he seeks the Republican nomination for Senate. No, it's not an especially likely play, but I think movement conservatives mistrust Berg and Sand clearly holds some appeal for them, as evidenced by Cain's visit. What's more, North Dakota is as cheap a state as they come, so you could do some real damage without having to spend a whole lot. It's certainly worth funneling a quarter mil of dark money to see if the needle can be budged in Sand's direction.
Gubernatorial:
• WI-Gov, WI-Sen (PDFs): I don't understand why Marist, which just did a big Wisconsin poll, decided to test GOP Gov. Scott Walker against Generic D in the gubernatorial recall election, and Dem Rep. Tammy Baldwin against Generic R in the Senate race. But whatever, that's what they did, and for what it's worth, Walker trails his generic opponent 48-46, while Baldwin leads 45-40. Unfortunately, we don't get to run Democratic Jesus against Walker.
House:
• AZ-02: Though the Democratic field has already cleared for Ron Barber for the AZ-08 special election this spring, it looks like the same thing is happening for the race to succeed ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords for a full term this fall. State Sen. Paula Aboud now says she won't run in the redrawn (and renumbered) AZ-02, which leaves just two other Dems potentially still in the race (apart from Barber): state Rep. Matt Heinz and actress Nomiki Konst. Heinz had previously said he plans to stay in the race, but if Barber wins the special, I think he'll have a tough time selling his candidacy to donors.
• IL-18: Too funny:
Republican Rep. Aaron Schock (Ill.), whose "musculature" and "body politic" garnered praise from Men's Health in 2011, used campaign funds on popular home workout DVDs, a watchdog group reported.
Schock, 30, purchased the P90X "Extreme Home Fitness" DVDs during the 2010 election cycle and classified them as a "healthcare" expense.
The purchase was identified as campaign-related by mistake, and a later report was amended to reflect the error, Schock Chief of Staff Steve Shearer told The Associated Press.
The spending report by CREW actually details far more serious transgressions by Schock, as detailed
by the AP.
• MD-01: While no one expects Democrats to have any shot at defeating Republican Andy Harris this fall, it is interesting to note that ex-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest still carries a healthy grudge. Harris, you'll recall, unseated the moderate-ish Gilchrest in the GOP primary here in 2008, setting the stage for Democrat Frank Kratovil to win a remarkably difficult victory that fall. Harris later came back to defeat Kratovil in a comeback bid during the red wave of 2010, and also got an even safer seat through redistricting, so he's pretty close to invulnerable. But that isn't stopping Gilchrest from endorsing one of the Democrats running here, physician John LaFerla, just as he did Kratovil in the past. Dream scenario: Maryland Dems do some mid-decade redistricting to make this seat more enticing and get Gilchrest to run for Team Blue. Whaddya say?
• NY-08: On Thursday we mentioned that SEIU Local 32BJ (a powerful service employees union) endorsed Rory Lancman in the NY-06 race, but as it happens, they also gave their backing to another Democratic Assemblyman seeking higher office, Hakeem Jeffries in NY-08.
• NY-13: Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel, who was recently in the hospital with a back injury and had missed a considerable amount of time from the House, has now returned for further treatment. Needless to say, we wish him a speedy recovery.
• NY-21: Looks like this story is going to get worse for Matt Doheny before it gets better—if it ever does. While it doesn't show anything particularly egregious, The New York Post managed to scarf up a cell-phone video of the Republican congressional hopeful pawing at a couple of lady-friends on the same night as he was caught on camera making out with one of them, a story Gawker broke on Wednesday. Even though the video isn't especially remarkable, another day of headlines on this topic is definitely not what Republicans want to see.
And in case you were wondering, yes, Doheny is a member in good standing of the morality police: In this 2010 candidate forum, he said: "In terms of same-sex or gay marriage, I also believe that it's squarely and only between a man and a woman, and without question that there's no need for anything other than a man and a woman to be recognized as marriage anywhere in the United States." He then went on to add that he believes in the "sanctity of family." If Doheny's going to bleat about stuff like this, then he deserves to get called on it if he's not practicing what he preaches.
• NY-25: A couple of third-party endorsements in the redrawn 25th District: The Working Families Party announced they're once again backing Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter, as you'd expect, while the Independence Party will support Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, and that's also turning out to be a pretty predictable thing. Though the IP has in the past regularly endorsed Democrats, they favored a lot of Republicans last cycle, and this year, in contested House races, they've only given their line to GOPers so far. The good news, though, is that even though the IP seems to be turning into a bunch of Republican shills, they fared poorly in the 2010 gubernatorial race (when they nominated Democrat Andrew Cuomo). That means that they'll only get the fifth-highest ballot spot for the next three years, behind the two major parties, the Conservative Party, and the WFP.
• NY-27: Apparently the GOP nomination isn't in the bag for former Erie County Executive Chris Collins quite yet. Iraq vet David Bellavia, who I expect probably has greater appeal to the tea party set, just scored the endorsement of the Orleans County Republican Party. Orleans, however, is a small county and only accounts for 6% of the 27th CD's population. Still, it's a sign that Collins is going to have to put up his dukes in the GOP primary.
• PA-12: Dem Rep. Mark Critz is out with a new ad, pushing back against Rep. Jason Altmire's bogus attacks on a vote Critz took last year. (Click here for the full background.) Calmly addressing the camera, Critz explains that the vote in question was actually "an effort by Democrats in Congress to defeat the Republican budget" and adds that "[e]very Pennsylvania Democrat except Jason voted the same as me." Critz finishes on a sharp note, saying: "I approved this message because Jason is better than this." You can check the ad out at the link or below:
•
RI-01: Freshman Dem David Cicilline, who has faced a lot of brickbats over his fiscal stewardship of the city of Providence when he was mayor and may yet get a primary challenge from self-described "conservative Democrat" Anthony Gemma, just scored a big endorsement from independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee. Chafee defended Cicilline's record as mayor, calling "a lot of the criticism leveled" against him "unfounded." He also said in a statement: "Returning Congressman Cicilline to Washington will help to ensure that my former political party, which has abandoned fiscal responsibility and is focused too closely on social issues, does not solidify its power." I wonder if Chafee, an ex-Republican, wants to finally go all the way and switch parties.
• TX-30: Typically it ain't no thang when a president endorses an incumbent member of Congress from his own party, and in contested primaries, you even expect it. But take note of this one: Dem Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson is calling in her chit early—Barack Obama just gave her his official backing on Friday, even though the primary is two months away. (The only others he's done the same for so far are Jesse Jackson, Jr. and John Conyers.) That suggests to me that Johnson actually needs the president's help, even though it will really only come in the form of being able to use Obama's photo in her campaign literature. Johnson faces a challenge from attorney Taj Clayton and state Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway, though I think Caraway is enough of a non-factor—and Clayton enough of an up-and-comer—that Johnson could be in real trouble this year.
• WA-06: It looks like state Sen. Derek Kilmer just got the final seal of approval on his bid for Congress: After sweeping up pretty much every endorsement and seeing just about every other possible Democrat decline to run, now Rep. Norm Dicks, the man Kilmer is hoping to succeed, is giving Kilmer his formal backing. This get is all the more remarkable because just a few weeks ago, Dicks said he wouldn't endorse anyone. But Kilmer has emerged not just as the front-runner but the only-runner, so Dicks' move makes sense. The GOP has no one of any stature running here, so this open seat should remain in Democratic hands.
Other Races:
• NY-SD-27: The count has been quite uncertain, but this is pretty nuts: When the counting of absentee ballots in the New York state Senate special election between Democrat Lew Fidler and Republican David Storobin temporarily stopped at the end of last week, Politicker's Colin Campbell reported that Storobin has a lead of just one vote! Totally crazy, but there are still quite a few more challenged ballots that await review, and if things stay this tight, there will be an automatic recount, followed almost surely by litigation. Hold on to your hats!
Grab Bag:
• California (PDF): Even though California's filing deadline passed a couple of weeks ago, the Secretary of State has only just now compiled an official candidate list. One cool thing is that the linked file tells you how each candidate will appear on the ballot, both in terms of party preference and profession. (You'll be pleased to see Democrat Jose Hernandez's preferred description of "astronaut/scientist/engineer" under the CA-10 listing.)
• CA Dems: Rogue Democratic campaign treasurer Kinde Durkee pleaded guilty on Friday to charges that she defrauded at least 50 clients by misappropriating their money. The federal prosecutor handling the case says he thinks the losses total $9 to $10 million, and Durkee could spend 11 to 14 years in prison. I'm wondering if Durkee managed to spend it all, or if there's still some cash stashed somewhere that could be returned to her victims, which include Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Rep. Loretta Sanchez.
• Demographics: The Census Bureau just put out a new slew of information on the subject of urbanization. Key takeaway numbers: Urban areas accounted for 80.7% of the population in 2010, up from 79.0% in 2000, and population growth in urban areas over the decade (at 12.1%) outpaced that of the nation as a whole (9.7%). (Presumably that growth is good news for Democrats, as they tend to fare much better in urbanized areas.) This might be the most interesting factoid, though: Los Angeles is actually a denser urbanized area than New York is, inclusive of all suburbs. (David Jarman)
• Site News: Just a fun little internal Daily Kos link: a rank ordering of all tags identified as election-related, from most popular on down. Aside from generic tags like "2008 elections," the most-used tag in this category is "CT-Sen," undoubtedly a hangover from the intense Joe Lieberman-Ned Lamont race in 2006. The most popular House tag of all time? Why, that would be "MN-06," of course—Michele Bachmann's home turf. Click through for the complete list.
• Virginia: The Old Dominion's filing deadline was on Thursday, and while it looks like the official candidate list should appear at the link, I'm not seeing anything yet. Anyone know of a better link, or do we just need to be patient?