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Leading Off:

IN-Sen, IN-Gov: Another rough day for Dick Lugar: Local newsletter Howey Politics just released a poll with new results for both the primary and general elections in the Indiana Senate race, jointly conducted by Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang and Republican pollster Bellwether Research, and the results don't look good for the incumbent. Of chief importance, he's only up 42-35 over Richard Mourdock in the GOP primary, with the election just a month away and third-party groups spending heavily for the challenger. And if Mourdock wins, the poll shows him a wide-open race against Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly in November.

As a bonus, Howey's survey also included the first numbers we've ever seen for the gubernatorial race, which pits Republican Rep. Mike Pence against Democratic former state House Speaker John Gregg. Pence is considerably better-known, and he has the advantage of Indiana's strong red bent, but the results are actually somewhat encouraging for Gregg, who trails by 44-31. For one thing, Pence is well under 50, and for another, Gregg has room to grow—though Pence is still undoubtedly the favorite. For our full analysis of all these numbers, click the link for David Jarman's post at Daily Kos Elections.

1Q Fundraising:

AZ-08: Ron Barber (D): $550K raised; Dave Sitton (R): $250K raised

CA-24: Rep. Lois Capps (D): $500K raised

CA-26: Julia Brownley (D): $280K raised, $250K cash-on-hand (in seven weeks)

CA-30: Rep. Howard Berman (D): $600K raised

CO-06: Rep. Mike Coffman (R): $532K raised, $1.4 mil cash-on-hand

FL-Sen: Rep. Connie Mack (R): $1 mil raised, $1.3 mil cash-on-hand

FL-22: Lois Frankel (D): $400K raised

MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (D): $2.5 mil from Massachusetts donors only (so full 1Q totals will be larger)

MA-06: Richard Tisei (R): $350K raised, $454K cash-on-hand

MI-03: Trevor Thomas (D): $101K raised

NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D): $1.5 mil raised, $9.1 mil cash-on-hand


CT-Sen: Another big get for Rep. Chris Murphy as he seeks the Democratic nomination to replace (the thankfully retiring) Joe Lieberman: Connecticut's largest union, the State Council of SEIU, just gave him their endorsement. The Connecticut SEIU represents 55,000 workers and retirees and is the latest in a long string of labor organizations to get behind Murphy.

FL-Sen: It's no surprise that bullying fratboys—who, after all, spend their whole lives mocking and tormenting others—can't stand even the mildest bit of joking when it's directed at them. So check out this wildly over-the-top outburst from GOP Rep. Connie Mack's campaign, over a freaking headline in a blog post!

On an item reporting on a campaign memo written by Mack campaign manager Jeff Cohen, The [Tampa Bay] Times political blog, "The Buzz," carried the headline, "Mack campaign: Why we'll squash LeMieux like a bug."

Below that headline, The Buzz simply posted Cohen's memo to campaign supporters. [...]

So Cohen took strong exception, declaring that "a snarky, unprofessional statement of this nature to our campaign is patently false and horribly unprofessional. It's tabloid journalism at its worst. It is arrogant. It is sophomoric. I would fire anyone who said such a thing.

"Reporters misquote and misinterpret. Their spin trumps truth. But make no mistake — manufactured statements, innuendos and attributions that are so patently false cannot be allowed to stand," Cohen stated in the news release.

Wow. As the Orlando Sentinel's Scott Powers says, Cohen must have been having a bad day. Adds Powers: "I'm wondering how a statewide campaign envisions its long-term relationship with the largest newspaper in the state after the campaign manager laid out such diatribe over a blog post headline." No kidding.

IN-Sen: Republican Sen. Dick Lugar has a new ad out attacking his primary challenger, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, and he's trying to turn his most serious weakness into a strength. Lugar, of course, has been absolutely pummeled on many fronts over the fact that he is, at best, an Indiana resident in name only, and has actually lived in Virginia during his entire 36-year Senate career. But in this spot, he goes after Mourdock for saying he plans to rely on out-of-state cash to fund his campaign. He even has a clip of Mourdock saying: "I'm confident there will be a lot of national money flowing in to help us." You can watch it at the link or below:

NY-Sen: Quinnipiac has their first-ever head-to-heads featuring Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and the trio of Republican dwarves who will never beat her. The incumbent leads Rep. Bob Turner 57-27, Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos 57-23, and conservative activist Wendy Long 58-25. Gillibrand also racks up a 60-21 approval rating, her highest score ever (and up from 47-26 in February, so you have to wonder what's happened in the last two months).

TN-Sen: A while back, Tennessee Democrats, who had come up empty in terms of recruiting any traditional challengers to run against freshman Sen. Bob Corker, started suggesting they might seek some non-traditional options in the entertainment industry. With Thursday's filing deadline behind us, they have indeed come through, in the form of actress and activist Park Overall, best known for her role as the nurse on the show "Empty Nest."

UT-Sen: The Salt Lake Tribune has a pretty good summary of Wednesday night's Republican Senate debate in Utah, where it looks like Sen. Orrin Hatch held his own while being tag-teamed by ex-state Sen. Dan Liljenquist and state Rep. Chris Herrod. I liked this bit in particular:

One of the liveliest exchanges came as Hatch said Liljenquist should not have missed 25 percent of his legislative votes last year. Liljenquist said he missed the votes to negotiate both houses for Medicaid and pensions reform, which will save billions of dollars.

But Hatch said, "I can walk and chew gum at the same time," and said he achieved a 90 percent voting rate over 36 years while negotiating important issues. "I think you should make your votes."

Not bad when the 78-year-old dude is getting on the 37-year-old dude for missed votes. (Herrod whinged in response that the legislature takes votes more quickly than Congress, but whatever. Liljenquist is free to use that excuse if he likes.)


WI-Gov: Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett just scored the endorsement of one of the men who had, at one point, been talked about as a possible recall candidate himself: Rep. Ron Kind. Meanwhile, Barrett's chief rival for the Democratic nod, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, picked up the backing of the Women's Campaign Fund.


AZ-04: It's been a while since we've heard from Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu—and surely I don't need to recount his whole sordid saga, do I? (If you need a reminder, click through the link.) Anyhow, he's out with his first TV ad of the GOP primary, where he's facing off against Rep. Paul Gosar and state Sen. Ron Gould. In it, he promises that he's the same old super-conservative dude he's always claimed to be, even though "a lot has been said" about him. You can watch the spot at the link.

CA-41: While Riverside Community College Trustee Mark Takano only faces token opposition for the Democratic nod in the redrawn (and open) 41st District, it's nice to see his campaign rolling along and picking up important endorsements. The latest comes from SEIU, which gave Takano their backing on Thursday.

IL-13: Well, it's official: Despite reported entreaties from Republican officials that he seek re-election, Rep. Tim Johnson went ahead and announced his shocking retirement on Thursday afternoon, as Capitol Fax reported he would a day earlier. In a statement, he groused about redistricting but went on to say that "family obligations" have "exclusively" driven his decision. Now all attention will turn to potential replacement candidates, one of whom will be selected by local party leaders. Johnson says that two staffers he talked to won't run, Mark Shelden and Phil Bloomer, and adds that no member of his family will seek his seat either.

So who might? The Great Mentioner is already hard at work in the Chicago Tribune: state Sen. Bill Brady, state Rep. Chapin Rose, ex-state Sen. Duane Noland, former Johnson chief-of-staff Jerry Clarke, and Rodney Davis, an aide to IL GOP Rep. John Shimkus. Capitol Fax also lists a couple others: state Rep. Adam Brown and Sen. Sam McCann.

MD-06: Oh man. This "endorsement" of John Delaney, who just won the primary on Tuesday night, has to rank as one of the most comical I've ever seen. While most of the Maryland Democratic establishment is trying to rally around Delaney in a show of unity after a bitter race, state Senate President Mike Miller only grudgingly gave his support—then called on Delaney to release his tax returns! With friends like these....

NY-06: After Asians (who make up 38% of the new 6th), Hispanics are the next-largest minority group, at 18%. So you can understand why Assemblywoman Grace Meng just rolled out a big batch of endorsements from Latino Democrats, including Rep. Nydia Velazquez, the city's first and only Latina member of Congress.

NY-08: Politicker's Colin Campbell, one of our favorite writers around here at Daily Kos Elections, has a great piece on the incredible disappearing campaign of one Edolphus Towns. Writes Colin:

He hasn't been showing up at multiple Democratic club endorsements meetings, including some that supported him when he faced serious primary challenges in the past. Most notably, he skipped out on the Vanguard Independent Democratic Association, located in the heart of Bed-Stuy politics.

Bed-Stuy is a neighborhood crucial to victory as he faces the most serious challenge of his career from Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries and Councilman Charles Barron.

Online, Mr. Towns' campaign also has little presence. Mr. Towns' campaign website was last updated in 2011, while his campaign Twitter account last tweeted "Jobs Jobs Jobs" in 2010 (although his government account is active). His campaign's Facebook page contains no posts.

It gets even weirder: Not only did Towns cancel a planned "sit-down with local media" earlier this week (just a day ahead of time), repeated emails to staffers about the state of his campaign have gone completely unanswered. Is it possible that Towns is getting ready, at long last, to pull the plug?

PA-17: Two new ads in the hot PA-17 Democratic primary, via Keegan Gibson at PoliticsPA. The first is a spot we've been waiting for from the Campaign for Primary Accountability, which is targeting Rep. Tim Holden. Since they're going after a Democrat, it's entirely different from the cookie-cutter spending-and-earmarks ad they've repeatedly used against Republicans. Instead, they accuse Holden of voting to "help corporations avoid paying taxes" and "help[ing] George W. Bush cut taxes for the top 1 percent" (complete with still of Dubya). You can watch it at the link or below:

Holden's tried to fight back by lacerating the CPA as opponent Matt Cartwright's "Republican billionaire friends from Texas," but I think he's going to have a hard time with that line because he's being attacked so explicitly from the left. Why would a bunch of Texas billionaire Republicans be interested in doing that? (Obviously they aren't, which is why trying to pigeonhole the CPA is impossible.) Incidentally, this buy is for $70K; the CPA promised to spend $200K here, so we'll see if the rest ever comes in.

Meanwhile, Cartwright is firing back at Holden with an ad of his own. You'll recall that Holden's trying to go after Cartwright for donating to judges later convicted in the "kids for cash" scandal (detailed here) in a new TV spot. But it seemed like a pretty b.s. attack to me (the contributions were made years before the judges were even investigated), and indeed, Cartwright's own ad emphasizes that he helped to clean up the mess made by these felons in black robes. You can watch the ad here or below:

TN-06: Well, this is unexpected. Back in January, after Tennessee completed the redistricting process, tea partier Lou Ann Zelenik said she wouldn't run for Congress a second time after her home county of Rutherford was moved into the 4th District. I figured that would be the last we heard of her (at least for this cycle), but it turns out that Zelenik isn't letting a little gerrymandering get in her way: She says she'll seek a rematch against freshman Rep. Diane Black in the 6th, who beat her very narrowly in an extremely ugly race in 2010.

Zelenik says she's moved into the redrawn 6th, but of course, she's now deprived of her base, and the Black campaign is saying an internal poll from GOP pollster OnMessage shows her beating Zelenik by a punishing 66-9 margin. But it sounds like Zelenik is feeling chuffed over a judge's recent ruling dismissing a defamation suit Black's husband's pharmaceutical testing company filed against her in the wake of their bitter 2010 campaign. (Yeah, it was that kind of race.) But courtroom victories don't usually correlate with campaign victories, and thanks to her late start, Zelenik is in a big fundraising hole against Black. Still, Black can't sleepwalk, and if Zelenik makes her sweat, that's a good thing.

TN-09: This is always a good way to squash your opponent's kickoff announcement: Barack Obama endorsed Rep. Steve Cohen for re-election, just hours after Shelby County school board member Tomeka Hart formally launched her campaign for the Democratic nomination. I very much doubt Cohen is seriously threatened—he's consistently fended off challenges with aplomb—but why take any chances, right? As an aside, I believe this is Obama's fourth congressional endorsement so far this cycle, and interestingly, all have been for incumbents in majority-black districts.

Grab Bag:

Ohio GOP: Wow, after all that, Ohio Republican Party chair Kevin DeWine is quitting! We've detailed this baroque saga here, here, and here, but to make a very complicated and long story short, Gov. John Kasich has wanted DeWine gone ever since he won the governor's mansion in 2010 and has engaged in a brutal fratricidal war to oust him. DeWine had done a masterful job parrying Kasich's every blow, and when we last checked in, he'd successfully executed a power-play that seemed to ensure his continuing job security, but I guess the endless fighting just got to him. It's terribly disappointing, of course, because I loved watching Kasich suffer, but I rest easy knowing that there will always be more opportunities to help make that happen.

Pres-by-CD: Thanks to jeffmd's hard work, we now have presidential election results for the new congressional districts in three states: Connecticut, Nevada, and New Mexico. As always, you can find our complete set of pres-by-CD numbers here.

Virginia: Virginia's official congressional filings are now available on the Board of Elections website. Johnny Longtorso informs us: "No Democrats are listed in the 1st, 5th, 7th, 9th, or 10th Districts because they are nominating by convention."

Redistricting Roundup:

NH Redistricting: Like a few other unexpected places, it's easy to forget that several small jurisdictions in New Hampshire are covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, meaning that any changes to voting procedures which affect these municipalities has to be precleared by the Department of Justice before going into effect. But the Granite State has long had a weird relationship with the VRA, largely ignoring Section 5 (except with regard to redistricting)... and the DoJ has largely ignored New Hampshire's transgressions. The state argues it never should have been included under Section 5 to begin with, and the Secretary of State says enforcement by Justice has been non-existent because they, too, supposedly recognize this.

But this odd state of affairs notwithstanding, officials are now trying to get New Hampshire formally removed from Section 5 coverage, under a process known as "bail out." Basically the state has to "demonstrate nondiscriminatory behavior during the 10 years prior," which means getting clean on all the voting changes it made but never submitted for preclearance. New Hampshire tried this unsuccessfully once before about a decade ago, but now the SoS expects to try again.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ron Kind's endorsement of Tom Barrett (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, tietack, itskevin

    in the Wisconsin Democratic primary is a pretty big deal.  Kind's district is not in Madison or Milwaukee and he's a well-liked politician.  Endorsements are not always big deals, but this one kind of is.

    Kathleen Falk has great executive presence and would likely make a good governor but there's still the question of whether she can win over the muskie lodge vote.  I'm not seeing it.  I think Barrett is the likely nominee against Walker.  

    Senator Gillibrand continues to impress.  

  •  TN-SEN (5+ / 0-)

    Wow, I had forgotten Tennessee Dems had said they'd get an entertainer.  I was kind of hoping for Tim McGraw, but the voice of Alice Tompkins will have to suffice.

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:13:32 AM PDT

  •  So far great response to Park Overall (6+ / 0-)

    I sent out an group email to my Democratic women friends and put the article on my Facebook page.  She has been well received and folks are excited about this race.

    I brought up her reasons and the Blunt Amendment. This is a big issue with all women around here.  Republicans need to stay out of women issues, quit acting like our OB-GYNs and focus on the economy.  

    ‎"When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative." (Martin Luther King, Jr.)

    by Sandy on Signal on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:48:03 AM PDT

    •  I hope you can show us polling data soon (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sandy on Signal, Matt Z, Larsstephens

      that shows some reasonably competitive race. (This is Daily Kos Elections, where we focus on the horse race.)

      I suggest that you contact David Nir, DK Political Director. He has sway on the races that are polled. Despite the DK label, PPP polls have credibility in the MSM, and can change the narrative.

      Without such data, sadly, I still think of this as a safe R seat.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:43:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  that's a lot to ask (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Corker is a popular mainstream Republican with some crossover appeal in a deep-red state. The best any Dem who goes up against him can hope for is to get the party's message out and maybe help rebuild the party organization for the long haul. As a trained actor and sort-of celebrity, Overall is probably in a better position to generate free media and communicate her message than the other whodats in the race. She will have to avoid coming off as a Hollywood liberal, though.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:49:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If she makes Blunt Amendment vote centerpiece (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sandy on Signal, Matt Z, Larsstephens

      of her campaign she might be able to make some noise - of course Corker will explain it was a religious freedoms issue, and in Tennessee that might win out.  But if she is prepared with the facts about 99% of catholic women using contraceptives one time in their lives, point out how unless you have a family of 13-14 kids in the pews sitting next to you than a form of contraceptive is being used etc she could flip it back on him.  

      It's not going to be the argument Corker wants to have.  She'd also need to tie it into the larger economic message about productivity of women in the workforce, the high cost of unwanted/unplanned pregnancies etc.  

  •  IN-Pres numbers are also polled (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    though for some reason they only appear well down the article so a lot of people have missed them.

    They give Obama trailing Romney 40-49 and Santorum 41-46.

    Scroll down to the 10th (!) paragraph of the article to see the numbers.

    This is about in line with what I would have guessed, confirming that Indiana is unlikely to remain in Obama's column this year. He may well have a better chance in Arizona this time round.

    •  9 McCain states are as good/better shots for Obama (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ParkRanger, Larsstephens

      based on polling averages so far, so I can see why IN's not been coming on the radar very often.

      Those 9 are: MO, AZ, MT, SC, GA, TX, SD, KY, TN. In adtition ND hasn't been polled but is probably also in this category, as is NE-2.

      All of these are showing single-digit Romney leads currently.

      My impression is that of these AZ has been attracting most attention from the Obama team so far, but if the campaign goes really well for him then several of the others could potentially come into consideration.

      •  I can't imagine (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Any but the first 2 coming into play for the campaign.  And coincidentally a solid Obama campaign in MO/AZ also helps Senate candidates.

        I can't really fathom a world where Obama can really compete in the other 7 states, at least not legitimately.  I'm still on the fence as to how Obama should approach MT given tester's re-election fight.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 08:31:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A Note on Connecticut (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, itskevin, Larsstephens

    The Connecticut SEIU State Council is not one union, but an umbrella for all the SEIU locals in Connecticut.  

    *Congress of Connecticut Community Colleges/SEIU Local 1973
    *Connecticut District/SEIU Local 32BJ
    *Connecticut Employees Union Independent/SEIU Local 511
    *CSEA SEIU Local 2001
    *International Brotherhood of Police Officers/SEIU Local 731
    *New England Healthcare Employees Union, District 1199/SEIU

    36, male, NY-14 (born), NJ-9 (raised), MA-1 (college), CT-1 (now)

    by kalu on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:30:07 AM PDT

  •  MD-LD-19 (5+ / 0-)

    Sam Arora is trying to cover his ass.

    Oh boy, the 2014 primary is going to be fun! :)

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:33:17 AM PDT

    •  What. The. Hell. (5+ / 0-)

      "Maryland Delegate Sam Arora just issued a letter claiming that he never fully considered the issue of marriage equality before last year, 2011, and that's why he got so confused when the issue came up and flip-flopped on the issue, ultimately betraying his promise, his friends, and his constituents."

      Translation: I needed gay money to win a competitive race but that was about it. This guy is as low as it gets.  

      OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

      by dem4evr on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:06:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Andd then there's this (5+ / 0-)

      Arora wrote personal letter to a lesbian couple who supported his candidacy to announce his co-sponsorship of the original marriage equality bill:

      "I received a voice message from Sam on his first day in the legislature in January, 2011. He said that he wanted me to know that he had become an original co-sponsor of the marriage equality bill and that he knew it was very important to me. I was blown away that he actually looked up my phone number to leave me that message. I told several people about this because I never had a politician remember our conversation and follow-up with me like that. It was extraordinary.

      t was an even bigger surprise two months later when Equality Maryland called me to request that I call my delegate, Sam Arora, because he was wavering on the same-sex marriage bill."

      Pure slime.

      OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

      by dem4evr on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:30:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mixed news on employment. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, DCCyclone, askew, Matt Z

    Only 121,000 new jobs last month (boo, we were expecting 200K).

    U3 unemployment goes from 8.3% to 8.2%, U6 underemployment from 14.9% to 14.5%

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:34:48 AM PDT

    •  We were due for a jobs outlier.... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, tietack, DCCyclone, askew, Matt Z

      BLS always has one where they contradict every other indicator out there.  Usually it corrects itself the next month with a strong positive in response.  We haven't had one of these in awhile.  I was hoping we had gotten past them.


      by LordMike on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:39:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think unemployment decline will overtake... (10+ / 0-)

        ...the jobs numbers over time in the politics of this.

        Media spin matters, but the only statistic ordinary voters look at is the official unemployment rate.  Given the decline in the broader U6 rate, the decline in official unemployment can't be rationalized away.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:56:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, but there were some scary #s in that report. (0+ / 0-)

          The retail segment lost 34K jobs. Also, there is zero chance of any government spending to help shore up the economy before the election and we have the chance that the House won't approve another transportation funding extension in 3 months.  All of these combined make me a bit nervous.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:58:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't worry, be happy (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, sacman701, ParkRanger

            I'lll trade manufacturing for retail any day.  

            Plus the retail numbers both at the end of last year and so far this year seem to be mis-timed when you look deeper into the figures.  Sure Best Buy's struggles and some retail weakness are bad, but i don't think the March figure is any more worrisome than the the January increase in retail jobs was a sign of retail employment boom.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 08:07:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  retail isn't scary (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              If the other sectors are generating jobs (which they are), they will generate disposable income and much of that will be spent on consumer goods. Retail will be back up. There is something of a gradual structural shift going on from retail to e-commerce, but that just means that some of the job growth that would normally go to retail will go to wholesale instead. Retail is also the worst paying sector next to leisure and hospitality.

              This report was nothing to worry about overall. Replace the fluky retail number with a normal figure like +15k, and you're at +169k which is a good number.

              SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:56:02 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  government job losses may be at rock bottom (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            There were 1k loss this month from government this month. And I think last month, there were actually job gains from that sector.

            But I think you are right, there are some things to be concerned about in this report. The impact of gas prices have always worried me, and I wonder if we are seeing it a bit.

            Still, it is only one report.

            •  Gas prices (0+ / 0-)

              I don't think have much to do with it.  The unemployment rate dropped faster than the national average from Jan-to-Feb in a good amount of high gas price states.  

              I think something might be up in California.  The CA number didn't move from Jan-Feb so I'm wondering if there is something specific to CA.  It's such a big part of the economy that if CA slows then so to does the overall US economy.  

              Add in that unemployment has been rising in NY (it's at its highest mark in over a year) and I wonder if gas prices aren't the factor but that something else specific to either of these 2 large state is.  

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 08:58:19 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  govt (0+ / 0-)

              State and local government employment (which outweighs federal employment about 7-1) is actually 6k higher than it was in November. The mass bloodletting of the last few years appears to be over.

              SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:59:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  They're not scary, they're statistical noise (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, itskevin, askew

            These are surveys, no different than election surveys in basic methodology even though the samples and modeling are far more sophisticated than that.

            The margin of error for the overall jobs report is 100K.  So the margin of error for industry subgroups is also very large.

            Don't treat this data as exact counts, they are no such thing.

            After contemplation through the morning I've convinced the recovery is humming along the same as in preceding months, the consternation is unwarranted.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:19:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  I hear the Ohio GOP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is going to bring back fossil Bob Bennett, a corrupt dickhead who among other things was in large part responsible for George Bush's second term. At the time he was, incredibly, chairman of the board of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections, the state's most populous urban county (Cleveland) and the one with the largest bloc of Democratic voters. (Can you imagine the uproar if the state Democratic chair also ran the BoE in the most significant Republican county – despite suspicion he didn't live there?) I don't see any way he wasn't elbow deep in the underallocation of voting machines in the inner city that produced four-, five- and six-hour lines. Some of you may remember the persecution/prosecution of Cleveland BoE workers Jackie Maiden and Kathy Dreamer for issues during the recount. Some here even still dredge that up to prove some kind of election fraud conspiracy as if those women actually had an affect on the recount. That was bogus. Back then no one went to the bathroom there without Bob Bennett signing off on it. He ran that place like he was mafioso. He's the one who should have been on trial.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07.

    by anastasia p on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:50:58 AM PDT

  •  Sanguine about jobs/unemployment #s (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, thematt523, askew, itskevin

    The spin seems to be largely negative, focusing on the disappointing 120K jobs gain.

    But I'm very sanguine, looking more at the household survey.  Official unemployment dropped, no rise or static from people reentering the workforce that bears warn of during a recovery.  And the U6 rate that liberals prefer plunged to 14.5, the lowest of Obama's Presidency.  Declining labor force participation is cited in reconciling the surveys, but that doesn't mean people are becoming discouraged, as the U6 decline compels the opposite conclusion.  One hypothesis I've seen is simply that retirements spiked, as baby boomers age.  That's not a bad thing.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:54:15 AM PDT

    •  But even establishment data hold promise (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, DCCyclone

      I mean growth in manufacturing is always good, sure it's not going to solve everything but it's more meaningful than some other areas.

      The big boondoggle this month seems to be temp help, which just seems weird.  The underlying trend before seasonal adjustment seems ok, so I'm not sure I want to worry too much about that figure with just 1 month.  I have to imagine temp services more than many areas fluctuates by in rather unpredictable ways.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:12:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Big margins of error (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, askew

        I always forget this, and so do most commentators, but the margin of error on the jobs report is +/-100K.  It can be off by 100K and still be within the 95% confidence interval.

        This is because we have a massive fucking economy with somewhere in the rough ballpark of 150 MILLION people working or wanting to work at any given time.

        I really think the declining unemployment rate tells us more than the jobs number, and the greater stability it has reflects that.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:16:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Mary, Mary quite contrary (0+ / 0-)

          Would be my general take on this report. It doesn't seem to fit with all the available data we've been seeing. Indeed, the worry was that the unemployment rate would go up with the spike in confidence encouraging people to start looking for work again. Seems to all be on the losses in retail. Would that be gas price related? I dunno. If this had been 200k and 8.4 it would be fine but I don't know what to think. I certainly don't want to spin it away with wishful thinking.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:49:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  temp help (0+ / 0-)

        It was way, way up in Feb so the weak Mar number may just be a correction. If April and May also come in low, that will indicate that something has changed.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:00:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm yet to read a rational explanation for it (0+ / 0-)

      The best one seems to be unseasonal warmer weather cooling in March despite record temperatures across the country last month. Temps me to call it an outlier at least until next month. At least they revised February up more than January was revised down.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:01:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-10: Another Endorsement For Rice (0+ / 0-)

    Assemblyman John McKeon just endorsed Newark Councilman Ron Rice. McKeon is the former Mayor of West Orange whose legislative district overlaps with a small portion of CD-10. McKeon, however, is very close to Richard Codey, the state Senator from the same LD and a longtime former resident of West Orange. Codey, who was briefly governor for a little over a year after Jim McGreevy resigned, is also close to both Councilman Rice and his father (a state Senator) so I wouldn't be surprised if the popular former governor and state Senate President endorses Rice.

    OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

    by dem4evr on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:26:43 AM PDT

    •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

      do Codey and Gill not have a good relationship? What about Mila Jasey?

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:57:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think they hate each other, although... (0+ / 0-)

        Gill was one of the Senators who put Sweeney over the top in the Norcross-engineered coup against Codey's control of the Senate. I'm sure Codey's bitter about that but Ray Lesniak was also in that group of senators and the two men are good friends and seatmates. Also, according to a commenter on Blue Jersey, Gill endorsed Tom Giblin against Joe Divincenzo for County Executive in 2002. Codey was a big Giblin-backer as well and that primary is the source of a lot of the division in Essex County between the JoeD, Norcross-alligned crowd and Codey. Simply by virtue of being on the same side in that primary makes me think that she and Codey are on ok terms.

        Unlike Codey, however, Gill has made a deliberate effort to straddle the Essex County divide between Codey and the more powerful JoeD-Adubato forces. Unlike his father, Rice, Jr. has also made a similar effort. Rice, Sr., though, has remained a steadfast Codey ally as the two men have become two of the most outspoken opponents of the county establishment. Despite their different approaches, Codey has said a number of extremely nice things about both papa Rice and Jr., which makes me think the McKeon endorsement might foreshadow something from Codey.

        As for Jasey, I think her hometown (South Orange) is entirely within the new 10th so I wouldn't be surprised if she came forward with an endorsement of her own. I know next to nothing about her but I think she's very close to McKeon and Codey.

        OK-1 (home), DC-AL (college). -8.25, -7.54

        by dem4evr on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 11:44:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Re: the coup against Codey (0+ / 0-)

          it's worth noting that the retiring Speaker of the Assembly was from Camden and replaced by Gill's districtmate Sheila Oliver. While the State Senate's power shifted from Essex resident Codey to South Jersey resident Sweeney. Sounds like kind of deal was worked out where Gill agreed to support Sweeney in exchange for South Jersey Dems lining up behind Sheila Oliver.

          (Also, pretty ironic how Barbara Buono supported Sweeney when he ended up ousting her as Majority Leader later on.)

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:26:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Heitkamp opinion column: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, askew, itskevin

    Criticizes the version of the BBA supported by Berg, says it needs more flexibility for emergencies (war, natural disasters ect.,) and needs to protect Medicare and SS.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:39:47 AM PDT

    •  43 states, she says (0+ / 0-)

      Have BBAs.  And look how great state governments do in recessions!

      I know, we shouldn't talk policy--but I think this is pretty obscure for a campaign issue, and terrible/nonsensical on the merits ("let's balance the federal budget while maintaining defense and entitlement spending!" defeats the whole questionable purpose).  She even throws in the "I will cut my office spending" canard.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 08:25:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kathy Nickolaus stripped of electoral duties (6+ / 0-)

    I posted this last night in the Live Digest but I wanted repost it this morning in case folks missed it.

    Waukesha Co. Exec Dan Vrakas (Republican, of course) issued Kathy Nickolaus an ultimatum: step aside for election administration or resign. She chose the former.

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