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8:40 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: Jeffmd is just blazing these days, with presidential election numbers for new congressional districts in two more states: Massachusetts and Tennessee.

8:59 AM PT: FL Redistricting: After a weird and not-particularly-explicable delay, Florida's Republican AG, Pam Bondi, finally forwarded the legislature's new state senate map on the the state supreme court for its automatic review. Oral arguments have been set for April 20, and the court must rule by June 4. If this latest set of lines does not pass muster, then lawmakers don't get another bite at the apple: The court will implement its own map.

9:05 AM PT: MD-06: Unless someone absolutely unacceptable wins a primary, I pretty much always expect losers to come around and support the winner, even when it stings. So I'm glad to see that state Sen. Rob Garagiola, who was defeated by John Delaney for the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night, has tweeted his support for Delaney, saying: "This seat is too important & could determine whether Democrats are in the Majority." Indeed.

9:14 AM PT: MN-02: All of a sudden, it looks like we have a rather busy field of Democratic hopefuls looking to take on GOP Rep. John Kline. Dakota County commissioner Kathleen Gaylord announced that she'd run, becoming the third would-be challenger to Kline, along with Northfield City Council member Patrick Ganey and ex-state Rep. Mike Obermueller. What's not clear is whether the nomination will get decided at the Democratic district-wide convention later this month, or whether anyone will forge ahead to a primary if they don't get the nod from delegates. (Obermueller has said he'll abide by the convention results, but it's not clear what Ganey and Gaylord plan to do.)

9:24 AM PT: MN-08: I find these kinds of polling memos so lame. Former state Sen. Tarryl Clark is only now publicizing a month-old internal from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and while she touts her strengths (of course), she doesn't even produce a full set of numbers to look at. All she says is that she's in a "3-way tie" with ex-Rep. Rick Nolan and Duluth City Council member Jeff Anderson, and that she's at 21%. I guess we can fill in the blanks? But that's just silly—just give us the actual numbers. Perhaps the most bogus part, though, is that she claims her "vote spikes" (to 59%!) after a "simple introduction to Clark's narrative"—but were similar bios offered for the other candidates? The memo doesn't say, and surely it would if they were, no? That makes this kind of free-floating number totally useless and sketch.

10:32 AM PT: MO-01: It looks like the member-vs.-member Democratic primary between Reps. Lacy Clay and Russ Carnahan is heating up: The Missouri AFL-CIO just gave their backing to Clay, as did the St. Louis Labor Council. Eli Yokley of PoliticMO suggests that unions may be acting because they're unhapy with Carnahan's decision to challenge Clay after Carnahan got de-districted by the state's new congressional map.

10:51 AM PT: NY-08: The Ed Towns campaign just gets weirder and weirder. Local blog City & State reports that the FEC just dinged the Democratic congressman for accepting $14,500 worth of contributions that were over the legal limit from donors who had already maxed out to him. Towns either has to refund the money or provide a convincing explanation by April 19... but it's an open question as to whether he'll even do either. Check this out, from the end of the story:

Reached for comment, Charles Lewis, who is listed on press releases as Towns' campaign contact, told us: "I'm just kind of shying away from the campaign, and focusing on my government responsibilities." He referred the questions to Towns' campaign manager, who did not return a phone call.
So Ed Towns' campaign isn't returning calls from Politicker, and it isn't returning calls from City & State—which raises the question: Is there actually an Ed Towns campaign?

10:59 AM PT: PA-04: The other day, we mentioned that Sen. Pat Toomey's PAC was throwing down for a reported 750-point ad buy on behalf of York County Commissioner Chris Reilly. Now we have the PAC's independent expenditure report, which shows that Toomey is shelling out $119K. Part of that is for production costs, but you can at least get a ballpark sense of what 750 gross ratings points will run you on broadcast TV in the Harrisburg, PA media market.

11:08 AM PT: PA-10: Republican Rep. Tom Marino is undergoing surgery "to remove small tumors located on his kidney." A "full recovery" is expected. We wish him the best.

11:48 AM PT: Candidate Filings: The filing deadlines passed in three more states this week, and you can get complete candidate lists at each link: Colorado (PDF), New Jersey, and Tennessee.

11:54 AM PT: Hrm, that CO link is definitely incomplete. I guess we need to wait for the SoS to certify the candidate lists, which won't happen until April 27.

12:09 PM PT: ME-Sen, ME-01, ME-02: Thanks to ndrwmls10 in comments, we've got word of a new Maine poll that no one else seems to be discussing so far, a survey from the "Maine People's Resource Center" that tested not only the Senate general election, but also the Senate primaries and both of the state's House races, too. The short version is that independent ex-Gov. Angus King is absolutely crushing in a three-way race, while Dems lead in the two House contests. But check out our full post at Daily Kos Elections for all the numbers, which are too numerous to summarize here.

12:27 PM PT: PA-17: This race is just getting really strange. Dem Rep. Tim Holden's newest ad attacking his primary opponent, Matt Cartwright, goes directly at Cartwright for the crime of being rich. I mean, literally just that: The spot's narrator declares, "While Tim Holden was fighting for us, Cartwright was helping himself to a racing yacht, club memberships, a mansion, and a Florida condo." Seriously? Maybe this would fly in a campaign for Chief Commissar of Volograd Oblast circa 1924, but I don't really know that you can run against someone merely for being wealthy in America today. You can watch it at the link or below:

As for that Cartwright quote, Holden cuts-and-pastes it to make it sound as unflattering as possible, but Keegan Gibson shares the full version:
"I don't think financing is going to be a problem," Mr. Cartwright said. "I've come to the point in my life that either I do it now or I don't do it… I'm 50 years old. I don't get a bang out of buying a new car anymore. I get a bang out of helping people."

12:45 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-05: Democratic former Spokane mayor Mary Verner was reportedly in repeat contact with the DCCC about a run against GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, but we've gotten some confirmation (from state party chair Dwight Pelz) that Verner isn't going run. That leaves film production company owner Rich Cowan as the Dems' standard-bearer in this district, which Dems have targeted off-and-on unsuccessfully since Speaker Tom Foley's 1994 defeat. Given that Verner lost her last re-election bid in the city of Spokane (where she'd need to run up her numbers to counteract the dark-red outlying parts of the district), she might not have been that strong an option anyway.

12:45 PM PT: WI-Gov: Rachel Weiner and Aaron Blake over at The Fix have a good post explaining why many labor unions are hostile to Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett, who recently declared he'd run in the recall election against GOP Gov. Scott Walker. These unions are backing former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk instead, and they haven't shied away from attacking Barrett. (I encourage you to click through for details on their specific beefs with him.) What worries me, of course, is that we'll go through a nasty, destructive primary and then have just one month to turn around and train our fire on Walker, possibly with a damaged nominee. I also have to wonder how much muscle labor will put into the recall effort if Barrett does wind up getting the nod, as the polling suggests he will.

12:51 PM PT (David Jarman): UT-Sen: Here's another poll attempting the difficult task of polling likely Republican delegates to the state's nominating convention (following an internal from the Orrin Hatch camp last week). This one isn't as optimistic for Hatch (whose own poll had him at 62% to Dan Liljenquist's 16%): it finds Hatch at 50% to 19% for Liljenquist... and that's a little odd, considering the source is the Strong Utah Super PAC, which is backing Hatch. While that's still a dominant performance, 60% is the key number here. If Hatch can lock down 60% at the convention, he can proceed straight to the nomination (and let's be honest, in Utah, another six-year term) if he breaks 60%; if no one breaks 60, then the top two convention finishers face off in the GOP primary. (Remember, though, the convention tends to be the right-wing diehards, so Hatch would probably fare better in a straight-up primary; Bob Bennett's hope in 2010 was to claw his way into a primary, but he couldn't even make it out of the convention.)

1:00 PM PT (David Jarman): NJ-Gov: Rutgers-Eagleton has a new New Jersey gubernatorial poll out, though it's approvals only, and showing little change from their previous one, with Chris Christie at 46 favorable, 42 unfavorable. Ordinarily, we wouldn't mention that kind of blip, but this poll included some interesting qualititative findings too, subtly suggesting some of the bloom is wearing off Christie's rose even if it's showing up in the toplines (yet). They tested whether various phrases apply to Christie, and the biggest gainer was "arrogant" (with 56% agreeing, up 15% from their poll in October). "Self-centered," "bully," and "stubborn" were also big gainers; the only positive trait that gained significantly was "independent."

1:04 PM PT: OH Redistricting: Organizers pushing a constitutional amendment that would require Ohio to use an independent redistricting commission have passed an initial hurdle and can start gathering signatures to put the measure on the ballot for this November's elections. The group has until July 4 to collect some 385K signatures. Meanwhile, a separate group which is trying to repeal Ohio's ban on gay marriage also got the go-ahead to proceed, but they don't have to file petitions until next year.

1:21 PM PT: WI Recall: As they said they would, Wisconsin Republicans have assembled "fake" Democrats to run in the primaries in all six recall races: for governor, lieutenant governor, and the four state Senate contests. Two ran in last summer's recalls as well: Isaac Weix and Gladys Huber. Weix is "running for" LG this time (and Huber for governor); you may recall that last year, he gave Democrat Shelly Moore a scare in the primary, holding her to a 55-45 margin. (All the other recall primaries were won by the real Dems by 30 points or more.) Weix did so well because a local Republican party leader paid for some 20,000 robocalls on his behalf—a rather disturbingly small number to move the race so much. Democrats hopefully will be on better guard against these shenanigans this time.

1:40 PM PT: IL-16: It's ancient news that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor endorsed freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger and donated to his campaign, and that a super PAC directed by a former Cantor aide spent $52K on radio ads on behalf of Kinzinger, all in an effort to defeat fellow GOP Rep. Don Manzullo. (Kinzinger was wildly successful, turning what some predicted would be a "photo finish" into a 12-point thrashing.)

But now Roll Call's John Stanton offers a new—and rather shocking—piece of information about Cantor's actions in the race, and it involves that oddest of oddball organizations, the Campaign for Primary Accountability. The CPA, as you know, loves to targets incumbents of either party just for the sin of being an incumbent, but they’ve also thrown down in some member-vs.-member races, which makes you wonder, how do they decide who is the greater sinner? In IL-16, they sided with Kinzinger, who I suppose had less penance to do since he was in his first term, unlike Manzullo, who was first elected when the Super Nintendo was still the dominant game console in North America.

So what does Eric Cantor have to do with the CPA? It turns out his own personal PAC (the embarrassingly-acronymed ERICPAC) donated $25,000 to the CPA at the behest of Kinzinger's fellow Illinois Rep., Aaron Schock. (Shock also donated the same amount.) Cantor claims that his contribution was earmarked solely for the Kinzinger-Manzullo race—but I think he's just earned himself a world of pain.

Cantor was already in trouble for taking sides against a member of his own caucus, but the CPA has aired ads going after numerous Republican congressmen. So Cantor can protest that his donation was siloed, but how should Jo Bonner feel? Spencer Bachus? Jean Schmidt? Tim Murphy? Judy Biggert? All of these folks have been targeted by the CPA, and Schmidt even managed to loser her primary. The fact that Cantor would get in bed with an organization hell-bent on sending GOP representatives into early retirement will surely piss off his fellow Republicans even more. And that, my friends, is  a very good thing.

1:47 PM PT: RI-02: I highly doubt that veteran Dem Rep. Jim Langevin is vulnerable (at least in the general election), but "hedge fund manager" usually translates as "rich as fuck," which further translates as "serious pain in the ass." That's why I'm taking note of Michael Riley's entry into the race: not because I think Langevin will lose, but because if Riley spends serious money (something he's said he's capable of), Langevin will probably have to run a more aggressive campaign than he'd otherwise like, just to stay on the safe side.

1:52 PM PT: Wisconsin: After another disastrous election night this past Tuesday, Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus has been ordered to step aside from administering the recall elections in May and June by County Executive Dan Vrakas. (Surely you remember what happened last year.) It sounds like this demotion may only be temporary, but with any luck, Nickolaus will lose her own bid for re-election this fall—if she doesn't find votes tucked away under some mattress somewhere.


2:01 PM PT: WI-Sen: Super-wealthy Republican businessman Eric Hovde is out with his first ad of the primary, a spot in which he rails against the national debt while climbing some kind of goofy red staircase that's supposed to resemble a graph showing how our debt has grown over the years. (You can watch it at the link.) Hovde is definitely trying to make a splash in a crowded field: The Hotline's Sean Sullivan says the buy is for $400K.

2:11 PM PT: OH-Sen: This story is almost perfect: Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel, just 34 years old and often criticized for his own inexperience, tapped as his office's debt management director a 26-year-old who just happened to have worked on his campaign—and had virtually no experience with bonds. How do we know this? Because this fellow, one Joe Aquilino, was sent off last year to a beginner's seminar titled the "Fundamentals of Municipal Bond Law," aimed at helping attendees "learn the building blocks of municipal finance and gain or strengthen basic knowledge of state, tax and securities law issues in municipal finance." Oh, and what's Aquilino doing now? He's back working for Mandel's Senate campaign. And he's far from the only young patronage hire Mandel's been accused of making—but he may be the most embarrassing.

2:22 PM PT: MT-Sen: Dem Sen. Jon Tester is out with a new pair of ads, both of which tout his support for and work on behalf of military veterans. (You can watch them at the link.) Tester's campaign says the buy is for $60K.

2:33 PM PT: Today's 1Q fundraising numbers:

AR-04: Q. Byrum Hurst (D): $100K raised (in one month)

CA-30: Rep. Brad Sherman (D): $4 mil cash-on-hand (that means over $320K raised, since he had $3.68 mil CoH at the end of 4Q)

FL-22: Kristin Jacobs (D): $200K (in seven weeks)

MA-Sen: Sen. Scott Brown (R): $3.4 mil raised, $15 mil cash-on-hand

PA-12: Rep. Jason Altmire (D): $330K raised; Rep. Mark Critz (D): $285K raised

RI-Sen: Barry Hinckley (R): $300K raised

WA-06: Derek Kilmer (D): $358K raised (since March 5)

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 08:28:37 AM PDT

  •  It's full of stars. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    okiedem, GradyDem, David Jarman, DCCyclone

    !

    ex-SSP. What would Machiavelli do?

    by hankmeister on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 08:30:25 AM PDT

  •  Just for those who are curious (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bfen, lordpet8, kman23

    The Google Docs folder with DRA official maps started by twohundertseventy now has all of the maps I've done on North Carolina's past districts from 1932 to present.

    Does anyone know where I can find districts prior to 1932 on the internet? I'm trying to save myself a trip to the library.

  •  I feel like we should be getting a new (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    NBC/WSJ poll soon. They havent polled since the end of Feb/early March, and it seems like the GOP race really did end this week. I guess we should actually get new polls from CBS and ABC too.

  •  Al Franken's fundraising email this morning (4+ / 0-)

    with subject line "People in Stock Photos for Franken". I think today's is his best yet.

    How does homeopathy work? | Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August

    by gabjoh on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:01:00 AM PDT

  •  Why Is Nobody Polling Iowa? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, lordpet8, askew, DCCyclone

    There's been one Iowa Presidential poll in the last several months and it was eyebrow-raising to say the least, showing both Romney and Santorum leading Obama in the state.  And it was from the Des Moines Register's widely respected pollster no less.  Yet two months later...and nobody has produced another poll to either affirm on contest these results.  Seriously?  What the hell is the hold up PPP?

    •  two reasons (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, DCCyclone, Mark27, HoosierD42

      1) no competitive Senate/Gov races (I believe CO is the only other swing state where this is the case)

      2) I'ts been 3 months since the presidential circus stopped in Iowa, so there's been no need to poll since then.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:43:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A word on the jobs report (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, James Allen, ArkDem14

    I'm not going to dissect it, but I will note Drudge has kept it below the fold, instead using his giant bold underline headline space on President Hugo "Huggy" Chávez and how he's apparently dying of cancer. He even has it below some dumb story pretending President Obama threatened that children will die if he's not reelected (and somehow linking that to the adorable photo of him with Nichelle Nichols in the Oval Office).

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:12:33 AM PDT

    •  I only bring this up... (6+ / 0-)

      Because Drudge is probably the preeminent conservative new media maven now that Breitbart is dead, and he has excellent "news judgment" when it comes to aggregating and promoting articles that support the right-wing noise machine's desired narrative. The fact that he's chosen to give the job numbers short shrift suggests he doesn't think conservatives will get a lot of mileage out of harping on +120,000 jobs while unemployment declined to a three-year low and U6 dropped almost half a point.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:14:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, James Allen, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

        I dont think the report really warrants the level of panic it has gotten.

        Certainly there are some things to be concerned about. Like why payrolls were about 80k less than predicted.  I remember the panic over the Aug 2011 report, when it initially showed 0 net jobs created. With revisions, it's now at +85k. That doesnt mean we'll see upward revisions to March 2012, but we'll have to wait to see how the  revisions sort themselves out to get a clearer picture.

        But yeah, politically speaking, since this is a political blog, 120K jobs created and drop in both U3 and U6 isnt awful.

        •  80k off due to retail being down (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Everything else seems to fit the other data we've been seeing. Doesn't really make much sense and most of the explanations for it I've seen are rather weak.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:19:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Warm weather (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32

            Lots of seasonal help was hired earlier than normal this year.

            For political purposes will most people see this as a disappointing jobs report, which I think it is, or will they focus on the unemployment rate drop?

            •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

              But there were record temperatures across the country in March. The explanations I read regarding the weather were arguing that is was getting cooler! The job creation number definitely is disappointing but it just seems so contrary considering almost all other data including data from the same report outside of retail. I think the jury is out.

              "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

              by conspiracy on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 11:15:02 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  not 80k (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, ArkDem14

            Retail was down 34k. All else equal I would expect it to grow more slowly than the rest of the private sector given the gradual trend toward e-commerce. The private sector overall has grown at about 2% over the last 12 months. If retail should grow at about 1%, that would be about 12k per month. So if retail had seen a normal month (+12k instead of -34k), the overall number would have been 46k higher. 166k is a good pace even if it's slower than the last 3 months.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 12:01:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm more than happy (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, ArkDem14

              To take your word for it on this since you know your stuff. The other thing is the disparity with weekly jobless claims. They tracked really closely this time last year with the downturn and then again in the fall with the upturn. Yet we get this report today when just yesterday claims came in at their lowest level in four years. Given that and other data I assume we should treat this as an outlier unless it is repeated next month?

              "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

              by conspiracy on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:18:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  weekly claims (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, ArkDem14

                The weekly claims have been a decent predictor of the monthly numbers, albeit with a fair amount of noise. From the claims data, you would have expected something closer to 200k.

                I would be surprised if retail falls again next month.

                SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:20:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Best explanation is margin of error (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            People don't realize this, but the margin of error for the jobs survey is +- 100K.  That's one hundred thousand.

            The media and even economists treat the monthly jobs number as having a level of precision BLS does not claim it to have.

            Think of it this way:  if an election poll has Obama at 48% in national popular vote, with, say, a 3% margin of error, in a likely electorate of, say, 135 million voters, that translates to +- 4 million votes!

            But we don't read election polls that way.

            But we read the monthly jobs report that way...wrongly.

            Now, the BLS surveys are a lot more sophisticated than election polls, with massive samples and the like.  The margins of error are very low because of it.  But the error is still up to 100K.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:24:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, the household employment surveys... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, KingofSpades, DCCyclone

          Suggest the number of jobs created could indeed be revised upward.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:21:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And U-6 dropped to 14.5% (4+ / 0-)

            "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

            by Paleo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:46:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Frankly I say it's a good report (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              The obsession with the jobs report is misguided.  Even Steve Benen whose work I respect says the jobs report is a better measure of the recovery than the unemployment rate, but I disagree.  Both surveys have their warts, but the unemployment rate is the bottom line for how bad things are, and it's the headliner voters care about.

              By the way, media spin is everything on this report.  On Real Clear Politics, under the "U.S. Economy" tab, the first headline in the margin is "Hiring Slowed Sharply in March," the second is "Unemployment Falls to 8.2%," and the third is "An Unpleasant Jobs Surprise."  To average people, this is confusing.  The choice of leading words on the evening broadcast and local news and in local newspapers will be the driving force.

              Personally, my experience in life is that the unemployment rate is the only data point that people really absorb.  It's always possible for the culture to change, and my memory isn't good enough to say whether the job growth/loss numbers got as much media attention in the early 80s and early 90s recessions as this one.  But the unemployment rate was the only thing that really stuck in people's minds.  If that's still true, then this is an unmitigated plus.  The job growth number isn't something people can absorb, they have no context for seeing it as "good" or "bad," but the unemployment rate and trend is familiar and comfortable to average people.

              There's no way around it for me to give a lot of weight to the unemployment drop to 8.2%.  I just think that's more important politically, and frankly I think it's more important to most people economically.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:32:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Oh, and one more thing...... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                We went through this same thing just over a year ago!  In the 2010-11 winter we had a month where unemployment dropped a lot but the jobs report was crappy.  It was very confusing, and the discrepancy resolved itself over the ensuing months.  The same will happen now.  And last time the resolution wasn't a sharp uptick in the unemployment rate to match poor job growth, instead unemployment stayed down.

                I think the same will happen now.

                Relatedly, one bugaboo the bears warn of is unemployment actually rising as discouraged workers reenter the labor force.  But that still hasn't happened.

                I'm feeling pretty good and happy to tout an unemployment drop to 8.2 as good news.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 07:35:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  . . . but that won't stop them from trying (0+ / 0-)

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:47:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  ME-Sen: New poll out (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, bfen, Minnesota Mike, lordpet8

    shows Cynthia Dill and Charlie Summers leading in their respective primaries. The polling group did not expect Dill to be in the lead so they had Dunlap in the general election match up. As expected, King has a wide lead.

    I just want to add that King said he would drop out if he could not win. Meaning the Democrat takes a sizable chunk and allows a Republican to take the lead. It's a risk we should take. The thought of having to deal with him is somehow worse than dealing with a Republican.

    http://bangordailynews.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:27:53 AM PDT

  •  MN-08 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy

    Maybe they were just really drunk from sapelcovits' drinking game after hearing all about Clark's "profile" :P

  •  MN-02 (0+ / 0-)

    Minnesotans, who's our strongest candidate of that bunch?  Obermuller got elected from the reddest area (Northfield is a college town and South St. Paul is an inner ring suburb).

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:32:47 AM PDT

  •  Lots of Minnesota news today! (7+ / 0-)

    Me gusta mucho!

    Anyways. MN-2. Obermueller is a solid recruit. I have never heard of Ganey before this race (and I am pretty in-tune with names of politicos locally). And Gaylord is fairly unimpressive in terms of accomplishments. And being from Northern Dakota County does not mean she can win over the district as a whole. Northern Dakota County is very very blue. I want to see polling before I back anyone officially. But given Obermueller's youth, and potential down to road to take over once Kline retires, I am leaning towards him. But my support is 100% contingent on electability

    Note: None of these candidates can pull within single digits of Kline. So thoughts of an upset, or a potential place to pick up a district really should be put to rest before people start putting money in this district. Kline is 100% safe.

    As for MN-8. I used to like Tarryl Clark, I really did. But now, she just needs to get out of this race, and go back home (which isn't even in the district). She, personally, is wearing me very very thin with this race, to the point where I almost want her to get out of politics all together.

    •  If Rep. Kline is that safe... (0+ / 0-)

      Why is this race attracting so many ambitious Democratic pols?

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 11:15:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What do you think of Rick Nolan? (0+ / 0-)

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 11:58:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I used to work for him (0+ / 0-)

        Then there was a falling out. It was a very big falling out. But I think he is a good guy, I just wish he would have stuck to his guns with what was promised. Right now I am on the fence between Nolan and Anderson.

        •  I mean, how is he running his campaign (0+ / 0-)

          and is he a good fit for MN-8?

          "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

          by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:41:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Better than Clark by a mile. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, Mark27, ArkDem14

            But being from Brainerd is not a plus. That being said, Brainerd is at least in the 8th district, unlike Clark's residence. Nolan is more farm-centric, which is not really a good fit for the district either. Anderson is From Duluth (which is really the heard and soul of the district), but has a much thinner resume than either Clark or Nolan. That being said the LGBT community would go absolutely nuts for him simply because he is a gay candidate running in a rural district. So fundraising shouldn't be an issue for any of the candidates in the general, as they all have built-in networks.

            And honestly, I am VERY disappointed in who DIDN'T run. But redistricting scared off a LOT of the strong candidates, as they didn't want their district eliminated by the judges. There are no fewer than a dozen DFLers that would have locked this up as Safe D in 2012 and beyond, but every single one of them took a pass. Some have legitimate reasons (Sertich has a young wife and baby and home, and has his dream job. Prettner-Solon is the Lt. Governor. Etc. But some have no excuse other than not wanting to be a congressman. Don Ness, I am looking at you.)

    •  exactly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      this was a seat the democrats had no business losing and Cravaack, while a good guy, is well to the right of his district. I don't want Clark to "Phil Hare" this seat.

      also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

      by demographicarmageddon on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:34:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  St. Cloud was moved into the district (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Was it not?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

      by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 03:48:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nope (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It was not. St. Cloud effectively anchor's the 6th now. As Washington County was cut out and divvied out between the 4th and 2nd.

        •  Washington County (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Washington County was divided into 3 parts.

          The far southern part (St. Paul Park, Cottage Grove, Gray Cloud Island, and Denmark) is in the 2nd.

          The northern part of the county (north of a line extending from the northern border of Ramsey County) is in the 6th.

          The rest of the county (including Woodbury & Stillwater) where most of the people live, is in the 4th.

  •  Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    buying air time in Pennsylvania. Yeah Santorum's chances of winning Pennsylvania are probably close to gone at this point, unless Santorum is willing to throw everything he has at Pennsylvania but I think Romney has SEPA locked down at this point...

    Mitt Romney's campaign is reserving airtime in the upcoming primary state of Pennsylvania starting next week, a strategist tracking the 2012 air war tells me.

    The size of the buy is unclear, but the campaign is buying broadcast flights that span the period from April 9 to April 22. The Pennsylvania primary is April 24.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:06:58 AM PDT

  •  NJ-10 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ndrwmls10

    Nia Gill's establishment support in Hudson County swelling: in addition to getting the endorsements of both the Hudson County Democratic Committee and State Sen. Sandra Bolden Cunningham, she just picked up the endorsement of Jersey City Democratic Committee Chairman (and Hudson County Freeholder) Jeff Dublin. (Note that aside from a small slice of Bayonne in the new district, NJ-10's portion of Hudson is entirely in Jersey City.

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:11:58 AM PDT

  •  Obama hits 50% approval in Gallup (7+ / 0-)

    Yeah, I know, Gallup. It'll probably break our hearts next week when he is back down to 43%.

    But the president has had a decent few weeks in Gallup.

    The weekly approval rating for the last four weeks, with most recent first:

    46-45
    46-45
    46-47
    48-44

    Not amazing numbers, but Gallup seems to among the most pessimistic pollsters for Obama so it is worth noting this:

    Before this four week period, the last time he had a weekly rating that was net positive, was July 4-10 2011. And between then and now, he had only one weekly approval rating which wasnt negative, 47-47, Fe 6-12.

    My hope is his decent/stable approval here and elsewhere maybe shows an economic improvement that people are feeling that wasnt reflected in the March employment numbers, just due to the quirks of the way the data is calculated. We'll see, I guess.  

  •  Jon Tester (5+ / 0-)

    has a new campaign ad up.

    Link: http://www.youtube.com/...

    18, FL-24 (home) MD-07 (heart). Soon-to-be UCF student, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

    by tqycolumbia on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 10:53:56 AM PDT

  •  CO-01 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, LordMike, jncca, sapelcovits

    Somebody named Citizen Kane has evidently filed to run in the Democratic primary

  •  Meanwhile in logical gymnastics (9+ / 0-)

    from Vicky Hartzler:

    While most audience questions dealt with fiscal and defense matters, Hartzler also expressed “a lot of doubts” about the legitimacy of Obama’s birth certificate after she was asked her opinion on the issue.

    “What do you think about Obama’s birth certificate being called a forgery?” asked a man who identified himself as an Army veteran.

    “You know I have a lot of doubts about all that,” she said. “I don’t understand why he didn’t show that right away.”

    When asked to clarify her doubts during press availability after the event, Hartzler said: “I have doubts that it is really his real birth certificate, and I think a lot of Americans do, but they claim it is, so we are just going to go with that.”

    Hartzler declined to say whether she believes Obama is a U.S. citizen, calling the issue “irrelevant” and said people should “focus attention on his specific policies and not his birth certificate.”

    “I have plenty of disagreements with his policies,” she said.

    So... according to Vicky Birthzler, the President might have lied about his BC, but she will take his word for it, and the issue is irrelevant, but she can't just say that. This is how birthers are nurtured.

    Her opponent is Cass County Prosecutor Teresa Hensley

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 12:37:59 PM PDT

  •  Funny little read on (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ArkDem14

    the Texts from Hillary Clinton Tumblr account and how it is transforming Clinton's image.

    Perceptions of Hillary Clinton are being reshaped in a massive way thanks to viral distribution of this (frankly) badass photo, and judging from the Republican posts in my feed, things are looking up for the Secretary of State.
    Prior to this week, people had largely overlooked Hillary Clinton as a 2016 Presidential contender, but recent comments by Bill Clinton and Nancy Pelosi, coupled with a degree of social media excitement that eluded her in 2008, may have singlehandedly changed the conversation about her prospects.
    I don't think people were ignoring her, but this past few weeks sure have been filled with Hillary Clinton talk.

    http://www.engagedc.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 12:46:51 PM PDT

  •  Random thought on UT-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    If Gen. Cooke somehow wins (and if he lands Marlin Jensen on the ticket, I honestly think he might be favored), is there any way he's not our vice presidential nominee in 2016?

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 12:57:37 PM PDT

    •  If Cuomo or Schweitzer wins the primary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      and they need a liberal on the ticket?

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:10:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmm, yeah (0+ / 0-)

        I'm salivating over the prospect of how much damage a Clinton/Cooke ticket would do in red states, though.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:17:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Once upon a time (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Republicans might have salivated over the prospect of how much damage a McCain/Palin ticket could do in blue states.  The war-hero maverick!  The second woman on a national ticket!  Talk about a pair of great profiles.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:19:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  profile (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            I know you like to throw a profile joke into most of your posts, but Palin is actually a good example of how profile isn't everything. Palin looked interesting on paper as a popular young governor, but turned out to be a disaster in a national campaign. A lot of candidates look good on paper but can't campaign worth a damn.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 03:19:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think this relates to the somewhat (0+ / 0-)

              ambiguous meaning of "profile".  

              In this discussion, SaoMagnifico seems to use it to mean "candidate biography and objective facts about them": Regardless of how good of a campaigner he is, Cooke would be a Mormon, an ex-general, and a red state governor.  That's precisely how Cooke "looks on paper", and SaoMagnifico isn't considering Cooke's ability as a campaigner, since he's said he assumes that would change if Cooke were to be elected Governor.

              When talking about Palin, on the other hand, you're using "profile" to mean "campaign ability".  So, in Sao's use, Palin would have had a good profile, but been a bad campaigner.  In your use, Palin would have had a bad profile, since she's a bad campaigner.

              One reason I make jokes is that I think it's a broad term that can stretch to include almost anything, from policy record to personality to background.  

              Another is that, frankly, I think that we can sometimes considerably overemphasize its importance in electoral results.  

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 03:36:46 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's correct (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tommypaine

                Then-Gov. Palin did have a good profile. I noted it when she was first selected (wasn't on SSP at the time). Of course, she wasn't properly vetted, and although she had a good profile (female governor, folksy image, very popular in her home state, attractive family), she turned out to be an idiot. Some might use the term "paper tiger".

                Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 04:17:19 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  What are some examples, in your opinion (0+ / 0-)

                  of candidates who won races, or did better than they "should" have, primary because of their profile?

                  26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 04:19:02 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Excellent question (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    sacman701, tietack, ArkDem14

                    Then-Rep. Suzanne Bonamici comes to mind. No great shakes as a campaigner, but as a socially progressive woman in a state that then had an all-male delegation, as a workhorse in the legislature, and as a former FTC attorney who worked on small-business issues, she had a strong profile.

                    Sen. Jim Webb was candid about how much he disliked campaigning and how uncomfortable he felt doing it. I don't think anyone would mistake him for a talented politician. But as a former Republican with significant military and DoD experience in a state like Virginia, he had an excellent profile that appealed to voters. With a last-minute assist from then-Sen. George Allen's big fat mouth, he won the election despite not running all that enthusiastic a campaign.

                    Gov. Rick Snyder is a quintessential example of a politician who outperformed despite not really being much of a politician at all. By Snyder's own admission, he was a political novice who muddled his way through it (just as he's now muddling through being governor, and doing a terrible job of it), and yet he still crushed Mayor Virg Bernero in a blue state. He had an exceptionally good profile. He wasn't tied to Lansing politics (or federal politics) at a time when Lansing was deeply unpopular (as was Washington). He didn't have a strongly ideological background, and honestly, I don't think he's a strongly ideological guy (though it's turned out he has little to no backbone and he doesn't know shit about governing), and that appealed to voters. He had a positive reputation at Gateway, more or less. He's obviously a very bright guy, with all those degrees and stuff. He had a good profile, and even though he wasn't a preternaturally gifted campaigner, he won easily.

                    Rep. Dave Reichert has held on forever not because he is a great campaigner (he went AWOL for a while in the fall of 2010, with no real explanation, and he's not particularly vigorous), but because he's a popular former sheriff with a moderate reputation. That's all profile, still working for him even though he's a four-term incumbent.

                    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:12:26 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Excuse me, should be now-Rep. Bonamici. (0+ / 0-)

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:12:41 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Bonamici didn't really overperform (0+ / 0-)

                      It's a D+8 district, and she won an open seat by 14 points.  That's more-or-less expected.  It's possible that her profile helped her in the primary, but that isn't what I meant (which may not have been clear, and my apologies if not).  She might have outperformed your estimation of her campaign skills, but I don't think she outperformed the district's fundamentals.  

                      I think the other examples are more plausible, though.  It is still worth remembering that Snyder and Webb both won in strong years for their parties, and both had other advantages: Snyder had the advantage of the state's terrible economy under a Democratic trifecta, which, I think, wwmiv recalled was found to be significant in Gubernatorial elections, while Webb had the advantage of Allen's gaffe, as you mention--and, again, you have to place this in the context of Democrats winning nearly every close Senate race that year.

                      Similarly, with Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa all electing Republican Governors at the same time--and when Illinois and Minnesota only avoided it very narrowly, possibly because of third-party effects, and you can maybe add Oregon or even Colorado or Massachusetts to that list, and even John Lynch didn't win that impressively for him--I'm not sure how much Snyder's profile did more than increase his margin of victory.  But it's plausible to me that it at least did that much.

                      Reichert is maybe the best example of all these, I think.  Although it's also possible that he got lucky--facing a bad opponent in Burner and then being saved from DelBene by the Republican wave.  

                      But you seem to have interpreted my question as "when did candidates outperform their own campaign skills because of their profiles", while I was wondering "when did candidates outperform their districts because of their profiles", and especially when "profile" is taken as distinct from "issue positions or voting record".

                      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:28:54 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Two more come to mind in the PDX area (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico

                      Sam Adams seems so stiff when I've seen him in public -- but he had such a loyal following in the '08 campaign. (Though I gather his milkshake making technique in '08 was legend in a local "candidates gone wild" forum.)

                      Jamie Herrera Beutler is an attractive Hispanic who hardly seemed to lift a finger in the '10 campaign, and is now a Congresswoman from WA-03.

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:35:54 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Herrera Beutler won an open seat in an (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        even district by six points, almost exactly the national House results.  I think that's about as close as you can get to confirmation of the null hypothesis with this kind of thing--I don't think she overperformed or underperformed at all.

                        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:45:32 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

            •  I may not have been clear enough (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              I mean the same thing Sao did, which is that Palin had a good profile apart from her lack of state-level experience but turned out to be a poor campaigner.

              SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:22:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  What's with the . . . (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, SLDemocrat, ArkDem14

        . . . "Schweitzer-isn't-progressive-enough" meme? He's plenty progressive-- he just knows how to play a "real 'Murrican" on TV, so to speak, which works to our advantage! Please, do not lump him with that sellout Cuomo!

        29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

        by The Caped Composer on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:26:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Coal. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SLDemocrat, ArkDem14

          That is (one of) the reason I find it so laughable to think he'd be our standard bearer, environmentalism has just become far too integral to the platform to allow someone with his record, but sure, hypothetically if he did somehow make it through (which he won't or can't) make no mistake, he'll need to grab someone from the liberal wing, some prominent environmentalist. Heck, it probably won't even be as bad for Cuomo because he passed gay marriage he's from New York, which causes certain associations in low-info Democrat's minds.

          (and I wasn't comparing Schweitzer to Cuomo politically, Cuomo is clearly to his right, I just said they'd both need a running mate to placate the liberal wing of the party)

          (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:37:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Does Schweitzer have any notable progressive (0+ / 0-)

          accomplishments as Governor?  

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:17:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Um... (0+ / 0-)

      Yes?  Because it's up to one person to make that decision, and you don't even know who it will be?  Because, like, McCain didn't pick Linda Lingle or Donald Cacieri or Jodi Rell and Obama didn't pick Dave Freudenthal or Phil Bredesen or Brad Henry?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:16:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's just an ideal profile, though (0+ / 0-)

        Gen. Cooke would be a sitting governor of a red state, a respected former general, and the first Mormon major-party candidate for the vice presidency.

        Maybe I should have said there's no way he won't be on the shortlist. Because just on the Mormon vote (a much more cohesive bloc than Latinos or Asians), he would probably swing Arizona, lock up Nevada, and make us a threat in Utah and Wyoming (where the population is so small only a few dozen thousand voters would need to defect).

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:22:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think there would be that many (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, bfen

          defections.  That's the strongest region for Republicans in the country.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:29:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And it's that way... (0+ / 0-)

            Because Republicans dominate the LDS Church.

            Break that stranglehold and I wonder what happens. Even just peeling off a third of Mormons puts Utah at the outer fringes of "in play" and gives us the edge in Arizona.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:46:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think attempting to peel off that many Mormons (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, jncca, bfen

              would be like Republicans trying to pull a sizable number of African-Americans by picking one as running mate.  Partisan loyalty is tough to break among minority groups.  It can budge things a bit I suppose.  If Romney picks Rubio he's probably not headed for just 30% of the Latino vote nationally, as he is polling now.  Maybe 35%.  But he's not going to win the Latino vote nationally or even come close.

              •  While I see your point... (0+ / 0-)

                Mormons are difficult to compare to any other demographc due to how organized the LDS Church is and how politically active its network is. It's a very high-turnout, extraordinarily cohesive demographic. Just see Lihue for a recent (and staggering) example.

                I think if Romney falls short, thanks in part to (perceived) prejudice by evangelicals against a Mormon candidate, the church's appetite for a Mormon in national office will be ravenous.

                Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:05:00 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Lihue isn't an example of Mormons (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  voting for a Democratic ticket that would almost certainly be much farther from their preferences than would be the Republican ticket.  

                  Obviously, they liked Mitt Romney mostly because he was a Mormon.  But, for one thing, he was the Presidential candidate, not the Vice-Presidential candidate.  For another thing, they didn't have to abandon the Republican party to support him.  

                  It'd be nice to know how, say, Harry Reid's done with the Mormon vote in Nevada, but that's not a great example either, as Reid is pro-life, and I feel confident in saying that the Democratic ticket will be avowedly pro-choice in 2016.

                  26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:13:55 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  You're neglecting the possibility that (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, sapelcovits

              Mormons, as a group, might simply prefer the Republican party's policies, just like any other group of strong partisans.  

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:09:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  He'd probably get some press (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, ArkDem14, uclabruin18

          in the same way that most of Lingle, Cacieri, Rell, Freudenthal, Bredesen, and Henry at least got some press in 2008.  But that's a very different thing than being actually considered, let alone actually picked.  

          Remember that Cooke will have had to spend almost a full term as Governor of Utah, dealing with that state's legislature, signing or vetoing budgets and legislation.  He'll have a record, and it's very hard for me to imagine that it will be one national Democrats will look very favorably on, in the same way that someone like Jodi Rell was probably a non-starter for McCain.  He would almost certainly have to explain a great many differences between his own positions and the national ticket.    

          For example, it's basically impossible for me to imagine either a pro-choice candidate winning a statewide election in Utah or a pro-life candidate being named to a national Democratic ticket--whatever their "profile".  

          As for the electoral effects:

          You have to remember that people really do have partisan attachments and ideological preferences, and a candidate's "profile"--especially a Vice-President's profile!--probably isn't going to move them that much.  

          Such a selection might help swing weak partisans, like the precincts that went heavily for Gore/Lieberman and heavily against Obama/McCain, but I don't think that Utah and Wyoming Mormons are exactly weak partisans, to say the least.            

          I feel like this is analogous to Republicans thinking that if they put, say, Michael Steele or J.C. Watts on their ticket, then they might swing the African-American vote.  Admittedly, some of them actually do seem to think this, but I disagree with them.  I doubt even Colin Powell would have such an effect--and I also doubt that Cooke would be exactly analogous to a Colin Powell, even within the Mormon community.

          Also remember that "Cooke has not met with any of the half-dozen on the list or offered anyone the spot on the ticket, but the campaign hopes to begin holding meetings this week with potential running mates."

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:02:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  In Utah, I think saying a Dem is "favored" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      For a statewide race might go to far, even with such a strong ticket. Tossup might be appropriate, though.

      (and, yep, I know Jensen is a Mormon elder)

    •  I watched Cooke's announcement speech (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      While he seems a good guy, his speaking style was a bit unpolished and halting in places. I don't think he'd be ready for the national stage...

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections

      by James L on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:57:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Just looked up Marlin Jensen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      Yeah, he'd be a pretty huge get in the Beehive State.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 11:19:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Sen: Brown raised $3.4mil in Q1. (0+ / 0-)

    Has $15mil in COH.

    Link

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:07:37 PM PDT

    •  Hahaha (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, SLDemocrat
      “The people of Massachusetts appreciate the independent, pro-jobs perspective that Senator Brown brings to each issue and they have rewarded him with yet another strong quarter of fundraising,” John Cook, Brown’s campaign finance director, said in a statement. “We will once again be outraised by the Hollywood elites and out-of-state liberals that are backing our opponent, but we will have resources we need to run our race.”
      How often does a senate candidate who raised upward of three million dollars have to go on the defensive for trailing in fundraising?

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:09:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  who do you think will be chairman of these (0+ / 0-)

    committees when the democrats next retake the house

    Ag
    Appropriations
    Armed Services
    Budget
    Ed and Labor
    Energy
    Financial Services
    Foreign Affairs
    Homeland Security
    Judiciary
    Natural Resources
    Oversight
    Rules
    Science, Space, Technology
    Small Business
    Transporation and Infrastructure
    Veterans Affairs
    Ways and Means

    In My Opinion:
    Holden
    Kaptur
    Smith
    Van Hollen
    Andrews
    Pallone
    Maloney
    Berman
    Thompson
    Brady
    Berman
    DeFazio
    Cummings
    McGovern
    Lofgren
    Velazquez
    Rahall
    McNerney
    Neal

    also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 01:51:12 PM PDT

    •  And how does this relate to electoral politics? (0+ / 0-)

      After your bait yesterday about racism -- in a context far away from electoral politics, I've become wary of you.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:03:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Mine: (0+ / 0-)

      Ag: McIntyre
      Appropriations: Kaptur
      Armed Services: Reyes (hopefully anyways)
      Budget: Van Hollen (yeeeeesssss)
      Education and Labor: Andrews
      Energy: Waxman
      Banking: Waters
      Foreign Affairs: Ackerman
      Homeland Security: Thompson
      Judiciary: Conyers
      Natural Resources: Markey
      Oversight: Cummings
      Rules: Slaughter
      Science, Space, Technology: Lofgren
      Small Business: Velázquez
      Transportation and Infrastructure: Rahall
      Veterans Affairs: McNerney
      Ways and Means: Kind

      Wow, that was fun, I enjoyed working through that.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:30:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ras: Obama up 3 in OH, FL, VA and NC (5+ / 0-)

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:10:08 PM PDT

  •  WV-Gov: Tomblin with big cash lead over Maloney (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, ArkDem14

    http://hosted.ap.org/...

    Tomblin raised $1 million to Maloney's $305,000.  Tomblin's cash on hand advantage is $876,000 to $267,000.  Maloney will be able to pump his own money into the race but this is still good to see.  

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 02:10:49 PM PDT

  •  PA-17 (0+ / 0-)

    Can anyone explain what's going on in PA-17? Did the district move a lot to the left and Holden, being conservative, is now out of touch in the new district? Is Cartwright running to the left of Holden?

    I can't believe these Holden ads. He straight up lies about the scandal Cartwright was involved in, he goes after him for making it in a free market society and he takes his quote completely out of content. I hate when Dem on Dem races go past negative to downright lying.

    (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song: F(x)'s Nu ABO

    by kman23 on Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 09:09:50 PM PDT

  •  God, Mandel... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    I'm actually pretty glad that outside conservative groups are going to pour in 25-30 million dollars trying to prop up this guy. They've already spent several million to no affect. Brown has plenty of money plus unions, Obama raising turnout among minorities and college voters, and his own deep popularity among blue collar Dems in northeast OH and the Appalachian regions.  Brown is going to win because he has such an incompetent opponent who has publically blundered so terribly in the job he was just elected to. I just wish that my conservative Ohioan friend who was obsessed with Mandel and crowing about Mandel was the rising star of OH politics and how he would be unseating Brown this time around,  hadn't unfriended me so that I could see his ridiculous reactions to all Mandel's missteps. The guy has litterally done nothing to make himself a likeable  or positive alternative to Brown, and he's going to lose because of it.

    I mean think of the ads this writes:

    Mandel's hiring practices stand out because he levied several accusations of cronyism and poor hiring practices against incumbent Treasurer Kevin Boyce (D-Ohio) during his 2010 campaign. “Unlike the current officeholder, I will ensure that my staff is comprised of qualified financial professionals — rather than political cronies and friends — and that investment decisions are based on what is best for Ohioans," Mandel said in October 2010, according to the Dayton Daily News.

    Mandel responded Saturday to the current scrutiny of his hiring choices, by saying, “I think in every position in our office that deals with financial transactions and important investment decisions about the taxpayers, we have qualified financial professionals who we are proud to stack up against past administration in Ohio and any treasurer administration throughout the entire country."

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 03:56:37 AM PDT

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