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Tuesday provided some of bits of reinforcement for a handful of generally accepted facts in American politics:

  • Rick Santorum has virtually no chance of being the Republican nominee for president in 2012.
  • Newt Gingrich has even less of a chance of doing so.
  • Waukesha County (Wisconsin) still cannot count votes for shit.

Aside from that, this week underscored a number of prevailing trends that have developed over the course of this 2012 cycle. With each passing week, it becomes more and more apparent that Mitt Romney is both the inevitable Republican nominee and also a decidedly weak one. Furthermore, the locking down of the Republican nomination hasn't yet translated into any burgeoning support for Romney in a general election. Sure, that surge could still certainly come, but it certainly is not there yet.

Downballot, we got a genuine "WTF" moment in a key House race, a handful of Senate polls in races that may determine which party holds the majority post-2012, and some new numbers in Wisconsin's pending gubernatorial recall.

All that (and more!) in this week's slightly belated (for the Daily Kos Elections crowd, at least) holiday edition of the Weekend Digest.

THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: On the GOP front, there hasn't been a great deal of change, and that is exceptionally poor news for Rick Santorum. While his numbers haven't cratered nationally, they have dipped notably in his home state of Pennsylvania, where one pollster (PPP) even has pulled Mitt Romney into a slight lead. What's more: other states that were at least in the ballpark for Santorum at one point (California and New York) are now pure blowouts. It raises an obvious question: if these polls are anywhere close to correct, how the hell does Rick Santorum stay relevant in this race?

The simple answer: he probably won't be.

And if Santorum isn't relevant, what the hell purpose does Newt Gingrich serve in this race? The answer: it gives Ron Paul's campaign someone in their weight class to beat in every primary, conceivably.

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 41, Santorum 26, Paul 11, Gingrich 10

NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 29, Santorum 26, Paul 14, Gingrich 12

CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Romney 44, Santorum 23, Gingrich 12, Paul 12

INDIANA (Howey Report/DePauw): Santorum 27, Romney 26, Gingrich 6, Paul 6

NEW YORK (Quinnipiac): Romney 54, Santorum 21, Gingrich 9, Paul 8

NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas Institute—R): Romney 23, Santorum 23, Gingrich 12, Paul 12

NORTH CAROLINA (High Point University): Romney 31, Santorum 25, Paul 15, Gingrich 12

PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Romney 42, Santorum 37, Paul 9, Gingrich 6

PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Santorum 41, Romney 35, Paul 10, Gingrich 7

PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Santorum 42, Romney 38, Paul 7, Gingrich 6

LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: President Obama, as has been the case for most of the GOP primary season, retains middling job approval numbers and considerably more robust general election numbers as we head into April. Those swing state numbers from Gallup noted the probable cause: an absolutely giant gender gap, with women favoring the Democrat by close to twenty points (Obama also comes close to breaking even with men).

One cautionary note: the Civitas poll from North Carolina is a bit of a strange one. It was released earlier this week, but the poll's website says that it is their February poll. Which raises a rather obvious question: why in the heck do you release a poll 5-8 weeks later? To say these numbers might be a tad dusty would qualify as an understatement.

NATIONAL (Gallup): Obama d. Romney (49-45); Obama d. Santorum (51-43)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-44); Obama d. Paul (43-40); Obama d. Santorum (49-40); Obama d. Gingrich (48-38)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (47-44); Obama d. Paul (48-41); Obama d. Santorum (49-42); Obama d. Gingrich (51-38)

"CORE FOUR STATES"—FL/NC/OH/VA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-44); Obama d. Santorum (47-44)

"SWING STATES"+ (Gallup): Obama d. Romney (51-42); Obama d. Santorum (52-41)

CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (62-31); Obama d. Santorum (63-28); Obama d. Gingrich (64-26)

INDIANA (Howey Report/DePauw): Romney d. Obama (49-40); Santorum d. Obama (46-41)

MAINE (Maine People's Resource Center): Obama d. Romney (55-37)

MASSACHUSETTS (Univ of New Hampshire): Obama d. Romney (49-33)

MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (49-40); Santorum d. Obama (48-41)

NEVADA (PPP): Obama d. Paul (49-42); Obama d. Romney (51-43); Obama d. Santorum (54-40); Obama d. Gingrich (54-39)

NEW YORK (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (56-33); Obama d. Santorum (59-30)

NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas Institute—R): Obama tied with Santorum (47-47); Obama d. Romney (48-46); Obama d. Paul (46-42); Obama d. Gingrich (50-43)

NORTH CAROLINA (High Point University): "Generic Republican" d. Obama (47-42)

(+): Swing States defined by Gallup as the following twelve states--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE

AT THE POLLS: The rather large array of numbers this week at the Senate level generally is an exercise in confirmation. The ability of the Democrats to steal a Senate race in Indiana is directly incumbent upon the fortunes of the upstart challenger in the Republican primary. If Richard Mourdock pulls off the unthinkable, that race vaults onto the Democratic target list in a big way. Meanwhile, another unthinkable pickup depends, apparently, on the post-partisan moodiness of one Angus King. Because it is pretty damned clear that King is the bettor's choice down East. Aside from that, expect Massachusetts and Nevada to stay on the Democratic wish list (though both GOP incumbents have recovered somewhat), and expect New Mexico to be a Republican target (though Martin Heinrich seems to have a thin edge there).


CA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 51, All Republicans 12, Other Democrats 2, Independent Candidates 2

IN-SEN (Howey Report/DePauw): Sen. Dick Lugar (R) 50, Joe Donnelly (D) 29, Andy Horning (Lib) 7; Joe Donnelly (D) 35, Richard Mourdock (R) 35, Andy Horning (Lib) 7

IN-SEN—R (Howey Report/DePauw): Sen. Dick Lugar 42, Richard Mourdock 35

MA-SEN (Univ of New Hampshire): Sen. Scott Brown  (R) 37, Elizabeth Warren (D) 35

ME-SEN (Maine People's Resource Center): Angus King (I) 56, Charlie Summers (R) 22, Matt Dunlap (D) 12

ME-SEN—D (Maine People's Resource Center): Cynthia Dill 20, Matt Dunlap 17, John Hinck 6, Benjamin Pollard 2

ME-SEN—R (Maine People's Resource Center): Charlie Summers 28, Bruce Poliquin 12, Rick Bennett 7, Debra Plowman 6, Scott D'Amboise 4, William Schneider 4

MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Denny Rehberg (R) 47, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 44

NV-SEN (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 46, Shelley Berkley (D) 43

NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 46, Heather Wilson (R) 42; Heather Wilson (R) 43, Hector Balderas (D) 42

NY-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 57, Robert Turner (R) 27; Gillibrand 58, Wendy Long (R) 25; Gillibrand 57, George Maragos (R) 23

NY-SEN—R (Quinnipiac): Turner 19, Long 11, Maragos 7

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
  • This doesn't quite qualify as a "poll", so I moved it down here. But advocates for the campaign of Utah GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch have done their own survey of potential delegates to the state GOP convention. Their numbers are somewhat troubling for the incumbent. Hatch locks down 50 percent of the delegates polled, while his chief rival, state legislator Dan Liljenquist at 19 percent. While that's a pretty solid lead, it falls below the automatic nomination level. What's more: the 31-point margin is significantly less than a 46-point lead last week in a similar survey of delegates. However, Hatch still looks decent for the nomination—should no one get 60 percent of the delegates, the race proceeds to a primary where Hatch would almost certainly be favored. His biggest fear is a replay of what happened to former Senate mate Bob Bennett—two other Republicans edging him for the golden tickets to the primary. These surveys make that scenario exceptionally unlikely.
  • As the filing deadline closed this week in Tennessee, we finally see what the Tennessee Democratic Party meant when they said they were looking for nontraditional options, including those from the entertainment industry, to challenge freshman Sen. Bob Corker. Speculation quickly centered on names like country singer Tim McGraw (who has professed both affinity for the Democratic Party and some modicum of political ambition in the past). Instead, the Q rating is a little lower for the person the Tennessee Dems actually had in mind: Park Overall, a longtime fixture in Hollywood as a character actress, best known for her time on the comedy "Empty Nest" (1988-95). With even minimal effort, Overall would be the favorite in a field of eight Democrats that is simply teeming with "Some Dudes."
  • This story out of Ohio was a coin flip between the Senate section and the "Air Ball" section, quite frankly. Dear lord, and I am not saying this because he's younger than me (and looks about 20 years younger), but man ... has Josh Mandel done anything to bolster the case that he is qualified to serve in the office to which he is already elected, to say nothing of the U.S. freaking Senate?!

THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE

AT THE POLLS: After a couple of thin weeks on the House polling front, we get a handful of numbers, both of the primary and general electoral variety. If there is a general theme that can be divined from these numbers, it would be that this does not, on the surface, appear to be a 2010 redux in the offing. Both Republicans in Maine run well behind the margins put up by their partisan cohorts a couple of years back (despite being, arguably, better candidates than the GOP offered up in 2010). Meanwhile, embattled New York Democrat Tim Bishop felt good enough about his chances to release an internal poll showing him up seventeen points on the man he barely defeated in the 2010 tsunami.

Meanwhile, here is both an exciting and potentially problematic scenario for Democrats. If the latest poll out of CA-30 (conducted for Brad Sherman) is legitimate, the GOP could easily get shut out in the new "top two" primary rules in place for the 2012 elections in the Golden State. That bit of "good news", however, is quickly offset by the fact that such a scenario means that Sherman and Berman would fight a rematch in November, and suck up a lot of available oxygen (to say nothing of cash) here in SoCal.

CA-30 (Feldman Group for Democrat Brad Sherman): Sherman 40, Howard Berman (D) 17, Mark Reed (R) 12, Susan Shelley (R) 5, Navraj Singh (R) 4, Michael Powelson (G) 2, Vince Gilmore (D) 1

ME-01 (Maine People's Research Center): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 61, Jon Courtney (R) 28

ME-02 (Maine People's Research Center): Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 53, Kevin Raye (R) 37

NY-01 (Global Strategy Group for Rep. Tim Bishop): Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 53, Randy Altschuler (R) 36

WA-01 (Dresner Wickers Barber Sanders for GOP candidate John Koster): John Koster (R) 37, Darcy Burner (D) 11, Laura Ruderman (D) 4, Steve Hobbs (D) 4, Suzan DelBene (D) 3, Roger Goodman (D) 1, Darshan Rauniyar (D) 1

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
  • It's reasonably rare that this happens, but we had a post-primary retirement this week in downstate Illinois (IL-13). Veteran Republican Tim Johnson, whose district was made a bit tougher in redistricting, elected to step down after securing the Republican nomination in a primary late last month. Johnson cited family obligations, but other potential motivations have been bandied about from the left and the right. Down With Tyranny's Howie Klein offered via Twitter that Johnson was discouraged by polling post-primary pairing him with likely Democratic nominee David Gill. GOP operatives, to the contrary, posited midweek that it was Gill's primary victory that actually spurred the retirement in quite a different way: Johnson assuming that Gill can be beaten without his trappings of incumbency. Whatever the reason, Johnson is out, and the Republican Party can now begin the process of picking a replacement.
  • Meanwhile, Maryland became the latest state to finalize their candidate rosters for November. In the lone targeted race in the state (MD-06), incumbent Republican Rep. Roscoe Bartlett was hugely underwhelming in winning his party nomination. Bartlett led a multi candidate field with just 43 percent of the vote. He will face Democratic financier John Delaney, who defeated state senator Rob Garagiola by a fairly wide 54-29 margin. In the lone "upset" of the night, the most well financed Democrat in the red-leaning MD-01 (a seat held by freshman Rep. Andy Harris) appeared to have lost his primary bid. Physician John LaFerla trailed fellow Democrat Wendy Rosen by 124 votes.
  • More states have seen their filing deadlines come and go. As always, the crew at Daily Kos Elections has been on top of it, though we caution that the Colorado list appears to be incomplete.

THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE

AT THE POLLS: Not a ton of polling this week, but what exists is pretty decent news for Democrats, save that North Carolina poll (which, remember, is actually pretty old by this point). Mike Pence, despite being considerably better known to Indiana voters than Democrat John Gregg, still is well under 50 percent, though he'd have to still be considered a betting favorite in November. This race, in some ways, is reminiscent of the 1996 gubernatorial race in Indiana, when Republican Steven Goldsmith (the mayor of Indianapolis) had a huge early lead over Frank O'Bannon (the state's Lt. Governor). As name recognition equalized, however, the margins narrowed. Could happen here, though O'Bannon was looking to replace a (then) popular Democratic governor, which is not the case here.

Meanwhile, with another new poll showing Democratic frontrunner Jay Inslee stronger than prior polling suggested, one has to really begin to wonder if his call to resign from the House was an inspired way to reignite his campaign. The lack of contrary data from GOP frontrunner Rob McKenna helps to convince me that Inslee has really clawed his way back into parity with the man that led him handily for most of the last few months.

IN-GOV (Howey Report/DePauw): Mike Pence (R) 44, John Gregg (D) 31, Rupert Boneham (Lib) 5

NC-GOV (Civitas Institute—R): Pat McCrory (R) 47, Bob Etheridge (D) 32; McCrory 49, Walter Dalton (D) 29, McCrory 48, Bill Faison (D) 28; McCrory 49, Dan Blue (D) 27

NC-GOV—D (Civitas Institute—R): Bob Etheridge 18, Walter Dalton 12, Dan Blue 5, Bill Faison 3

WA-GOV (Grove Insight for SEIU): Jay Inslee (D) 38, Rob McKenna (R) 34

WI-GOV (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—D): Tom Barrett (D) 48, Gov. Scott Walker (R) 47; Gov. Scott Walker (R) 48, Kathleen Falk (D) 47

WI-GOV (Rasmussen): Recall Gov. Scott Walker (R) 52, Don't Recall 47

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
  • Man, Republicans in Missouri have to be pissed at their fortunes, don't they? After the high-profile, slow-motion implosion of their former frontrunner, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, their new establishment pick, businessman Dave Spence, is also crapping the bed with astonishing frequency. This week's contributions: the revelation that, contrary to his earlier claims, he participated in a decision as a bank director to stiff the federal government by not paying back money the bank received as part of the 2008 bailout. Also, revelations of late tax filings, which his campaign weakly swiped at by saying that Missouri voters understand how gosh darned busy people get sometimes. And that was after Spence's greatest hit: claiming on his website to have an economics degree from Mizzou that turned out to be a home economics degree from that institution. Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon might be the luckiest incumbent in America!
  • Meanwhile, despite some decent polling (see above), there is also cause for Republicans to possibly feel a bit lucky in Wisconsin. The reason: a Democratic gubernatorial primary that may prove to be a little more worrisome than folks might have bargained for. The issue—labor, which has driven so much of the passion that has made Wisconsin possible, has a very clear preference for Kathleen Falk in this primary. Tom Barrett, the Milwaukee mayor who is arguably the Democratic frontrunner, has something of a mixed past with unions. While nobody doubts that they'd prefer any Democrat to Scott Walker, a recall like this is going to have depend on a hell of a lot of enthusiasm, especially given the paltry amount of time (four weeks) between the primary and the general.
  • This week's installment of "every vote counts" comes from a special election this week in the great state of Oklahoma. In a state House special, the Democratic candidate (Dan Arthrell) appears to have flipped a previously Republican seat in the Tulsa area. By three votes. Needless to say, Republican opponent Katie Henke will be seeking a recount.

THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD

This may well be the most diverse "air ball" cast we have seen in quite some time. We have a presumptive presidential nominee, a Democratic member of Congress, and a pair of Republican members of Congress, at least for the time being.

It's a smorgasbord of political inanity (and, by the way, a damned tough call) in this week's edition of the "air ball":

Rep. Steve King (R-IA): King, like his House colleagues Joe Walsh and Allan West, is such a bombastic fool that he probably merits his own wing in the "Air Ball" Ring of Honor. This week's contribution—a statement that might qualify as the dumbest comment on health care ... ever. You see, over the course of history, there have been people that have never spent a dime on health care. And they lived long lives. So, there. Of course, if you want to read the definitive discussion of King and his mania on the issue of health care, you simply must check out Hunter's contribution from Sunday Kos last week.

County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus (R-WI): In this age of unemployment that is still far too high, I have a lot of questions about how to find people jobs. But, after reading that Waukesha County, Wisconsin, jacked up the fairly simple process of tabulating votes in a high-profile election (yes...again), I have a different question: how the hell does this woman still have a job?! The belated counting in Waukesha, were it not for a few percentage points, could have been pivotal on Tuesday night. Waukesha essentially padded Romney's lead by three points. Can anyone imagine the shitstorm that would've ensued if the Romney-Santorum race took the same trajectory as the Prosser-Kloppenburg race in 2011? She will be handing over the vote counting duties for the recall elections to a deputy, but that seems like a small gesture. Election integrity in Wisconsin will continue to be an issue as long as her fingerprints are anywhere to be found.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus (R-WI): Won't someone please think of the caterpillars?!

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA): As always, Mittens is a fountain of "Air Ball" material. But, really, this recurring theme is always a favorite of mine: the Hater-ade over a certain institution of higher learning in Massachusetts. The Harvard-bashing bullshit would be kinda dumb, in any event. Given the resources, most parents would go apeshit if their kid matriculated at Harvard. But it is even more asinine for this guy to keep getting after Obama for "spending too much time" at Harvard. Given that ... well, you know ... he spent more time there than Obama did, and paid out some of his vast family fortune to send three of his kids there. Well, I will say this—it does prove quite clearly that you don't have to be smart to go there!

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 07:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Poll

The winner of the Daily Kos Elections Weekend Digest 'Air Ball' of the Week Is:

18%516 votes
23%667 votes
43%1233 votes
15%433 votes

| 2850 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Mitch has tarnished the Republican reputation in (18+ / 0-)

    Indiana.

    Teachers--Republican teachers--are PISSED.  Labor is pissed.

    It's quiet up here in steel country (for now).  I'm hoping for the Awakening after the primary.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 07:36:56 PM PDT

    •  Obama still can win Indiana (12+ / 0-)

      I think it will be close but you're right alot of lunch pale union Republican's a so pissed.

      •  Mitch "lost" Half A Billion Dollars (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RUKind, fumie

        Yes, that is and should be a "B".

        The nasty cuts, attacks on teachers, removal of support for kindergartens, and gutting support for the disabled was necessary because of the budget. Now it turns out, golly gosh, they forgot to credit half a billion dollars to the state and to counties. Two "mistakes" totaling half a billion.

        Why do people put up with this shit and then vote for those assholes? Born and raised in the south I can tell you: identity politics. Democrats are black people and the kind of white people who like black people (the phrase for which has kindly been mostly lost).  Real white people are republicans.

        It has always been about the racism.

        Then the dems run such odious "family men" that it is almost impossible to vote for them.

  •  as a D in CA-30 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueoasis, R30A, redrelic17, RUKind, Matt Z

    I'd rather vote for Waxman, my soon-to-be-former congressperson, than either Berman or Sherman.

    (Is it time for the pitchforks and torches yet?)

    by PJEvans on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 08:11:01 PM PDT

  •  Kathleen Kane is currently dominating airwaves for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueoasis, redwagon

    the Pa. ag primary in southeastern pa. Haven't seen anything for Patrick Murphy. The ads are pretty good for her.

  •  Those numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, conniptionfit, Odysseus

    in IN and MT aren't too ... encouraging, though I'm right pleased that NV seems to be falling into place enough to help downballot.

  •  nobody with as much money behind him as Romney (7+ / 0-)

    is weak...

    That's number one.

    And "advantage" doesn't "go" to anyone...it must be taken.

    If Obama thinks he can soft pedal this election he will go down.  If he thinks the distinctions and the choice is so obvious that voters can see them for themselves...he will go down

    If he isn't ready to rip Romney's head off and piss down his throat, he better bow out now.  Cause that's exactly what they are going to try to do to Obama.  If you thought the Swift Boat ads were bad, batten down the hatches.

    "By your late thirties the ground has begun to grow hard. It grows harder and harder until the day that it admits you.” Thomas McGuane, Nobody's Angel

    by Keith930 on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 08:19:01 PM PDT

  •  WI Republicans dominating the air ball poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    devtob, howabout, Matt Z

    I love it.

  •  The success of the recall of Walker (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    devtob, Odysseus, redwagon, RUKind, Matt Z

    Largely depends on the Democratic primary candidates remembering that they're running AGAINST Walker...
    The Dems could, and likely will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if they start shooting at each other.  Nothing turns Dem voters on with a passion like the spectacle of a hard fought primary.  How many Dem voters are the candidates willing to piss off?  We'll see.

  •  Bye Bye Eric Cantor (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mrsgoo, v2aggie2, Wreck Smurfy, madhaus, Matt Z

    So, does the GOP dump him now or after the elections in November.  He donated money to the Campaign for Primary Accountability, which helped defeat GOP rep. Jean Schmidt and spent a lot of cash against two GOP house members from Alabama.  Cantor claimed that the money was earmarked for the Illinois race between GOP Reps Manzullo and Kinzinger, but, the CPA said all donations get put into the same general fund.  

  •  Since (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wreck Smurfy, JGibson
    Rick Santorum has virtually no chance of being the Republican nominee for president in 2012.
    would it be dreaming too much to think that maybe Santorum will run as an independent?  That'll show everyone if he does......

    Can we do some sort of "Draft Santorum for President" movement here and get him into a third party?  In a way it would be so much fun, but then...... we'd have to listen to him even more, so I guess forgedaboutit...

    :)

    •  I'm for it. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ardyess

      Ricky can spout all the nonsense he wants if it helps Obama get re-elected.

      "The Democrats are the lesser evil and that has to count for something. Good and evil aren't binary states. All of us are both good and evil. Being less evil is the trajectory of morality." --SC

      by tb92 on Sun Apr 08, 2012 at 05:27:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GOP Operatives Good at Math... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redwagon

    ... That's why they have been working for years to disenfranchise massive numbers of voters belonging to demographics that tend to favor Democrats in states that project to be close and carry significant electoral college weight.  

    We'd better plan to win by a landslide if we want any chance to win at all.  

    "We know how the Obama administration deals with those who would destroy it: it goes straight for the capillaries." -- Paul Krugman

    by Deighved H Stern MD on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 09:48:30 PM PDT

  •  Expect Democratic prospects to fade this month (0+ / 0-)

    I think you will begin to see immediate effects from the underwhelming jobs numbers on Friday.

    I hope this assessment is wrong, but do brace yourself for a swing in the Republican direction for at least this month, until hopefully better economic numbers come along.

  •  The swing states poll is nice, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sherri in TX

    but the others show Obama ahead of Romney by just 3 or 4 percent.

    After a nasty primary, an improving economy, and dozens of Romney gaffes/obvious lies.

    It's early yet, but it's clearly not over.

    A public option for health insurance is a national priority.

    by devtob on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 09:53:51 PM PDT

    •  Gallup, Ras and YouGov? Pretty trashy --certainly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      devtob

      trashy enough that much of what they're doing right now is just supporting the horse race.   CBS/NYT will have Obama 10 pts up in their next poll -- I think they're trashy too but they have a different niche.  Then ABC/WaPo and CNN will need to decide which narrative to follow...

      Or we could just wait for PPP to do another national poll.

    •  actually Ras's "core states" poll is also good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      devtob

      The inclusion of North Carolina gives it a fairly strong Republican lean, so +3 overall in those 4 should mean something like +6 nationally. Not that Rasmussen is likely to point that out of course.

  •  Omigawd! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I just cast vote # 666 in the poll (for Priebus).

    Am I doomed?

    Occupy is the symptom. Fundamental reform is the cure.

    by Tim DeLaney on Sat Apr 07, 2012 at 10:15:39 PM PDT

  •  Priebus was shooting the ball (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nowhere Man, dufffbeer, redwagon, Matt Z

    I have to say that a true air ball requires someone to be aiming at the hoop and taking a shot. A really lovely air ball misses everything and lands in the hands of the opponent's point guard. (Deduct points accordingly if it's the 2-guard, forward, or center.)

    Kathy Nickolaus could be an ongoing reminder of nepotism, corruption, and vote theft. She is a reminder of why the GOP is obsessed with vote fraud -- because they keep trying to do it. However, she wasn't actually in the act of shooting.

    I think Romnulan spoke to GOP voters. They have a track record for being uninformed, so we don't know how that will do. They may never find out that he himself went to Harvard, or that Romnulan was governor of Massachusetts. They watch Fox.

    Steve King's defense is that he throws the ball every time he touches it. It's hard to tell what's aimed at the basket and what's aimed at another player and what's aimed at the coach. He just knows to keep looking up into the stands at the Koches and to flail away.

    Priebus, though, thought he was helping. He thought he was giving good advice. He thought he was going to win. He was being a leader on the court, he thought.

    Every reductio ad absurdum will seem like a good idea to some fool or another.

    by The Geogre on Sun Apr 08, 2012 at 03:41:45 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen's internal contradictions (0+ / 0-)

    are on display once again with his latest "core 4 states" poll.

    As has been pointed out before, this is not a very plausible "core" list since North Carolina is extremely unlikely to be critical (CO would have been a much more credible selection).

    But that aside, look at the numbers here versus Rasmussen's national polling. All 4 of these states had a lower Obama victory margin than his national numbers, in fact if you weight for population size I get an average Republican lean of 3.6 points. In other words, if Obama is ahead in these states by 3 points, he should be up 6-7 points nationally, roughly in line with his performance against McCain.

    Yet Rasmussen's national tracker has oscillated between narrow Obama and narrow Romney leads (it had Romney 3 points ahead just a few days ago).

    Basically they cannot both be correct, and since Rasmussen's state polling has been in line with other companies while his national poll has been considerably more pro-Romney than others, I think it's much more likely that it's his national tracker that's off. The fact that it keeps swinging about so much with little obvious reason is another indicator to me that it's just not a very good poll and is best ignored.

  •  WA-01 (0+ / 0-)

    Please tell me that poll is inaccurate.

    I'd call this an outlier.

  •  Rubio once again says he will not be VP... (0+ / 0-)

    When do folks start believing what he's saying?  On Fox News on Wednesday Rubio said Romney will win but he will not be Vice President and said Jeb Bush should be the choice.  

    I know folks say what they say now doesn't matter and you can't look too eager for the spot - but he'd been saying for many months consistently that he's not interested in it.  

    Will he be pushed for the spot until the day somebody else is named?

    •  I've said for a while now, I dont think Rubio (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, LordMike, DCCyclone

      will be the VP choice.

      He is already a rising star in the party, and so he has more to lose than gain from being Romney's VP choice. If Romney loses in Nov, that will be a hurdle for Rubio to overcome if he decides to run for president in 2016.

      My guess is the VP choice will be Portman. I had previously been skeptical of him as the choice because of his Bush administration ties, but other than that, he would be a good choice for Romney.

      •  Portman would make it the dullest ticket ever (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        PPP had this little nugget from their recent polling in Ohio:

        The best word to describe first term Senator Rob Portman would be anonymous. 42% of voters have no opinion about him, the highest figure we've found for any sitting Senator.
    •  That's what he' s supposed to say. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      The same way Saudi Arabia condemns Israel for bombing places like Syria while quietly getting them a high-five.

      You are supposed to deny any and all desire to be vice-president up until the very moment you are asked after which it suddenly becomes your dream job and your patriotic duty.

      •  Yeah, but what jj says is true... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        You don't want to be the VP on a losing ticket, especially in the Republican party.  Republicans do not forgive losers easily, and why should he scuttle a promising career by attaching himself to an unpopular anvil like Romney.  Even if Romney wins, Rubio gets scuttled to the back bench instead of making a real name for himself, by himself.  I can believe that he's being honest.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sun Apr 08, 2012 at 08:28:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not necessarily true. (0+ / 0-)

          Of the last few VP candidates on failed tickets.

          Palin could've actually done well this election.  But she of course rather than getting organized did reality tv shows and cashed in.  She certainly was not hurt.

          Jack Kemp's standing was not hurt by being on Bob Dole's losing 1996 ticket.  He passed on the 2000 race but he would've been taken more seriously than he did in 1988.

          Dan Quayle was a backbencher and his standing of course improved even though like Palin he was seen as a terrible pick.  Bush outmaneuvered him for the 2000 nomination but he was right in the thick of it and his failings were due to his own misteps in 1999 and 2000 rather than being on the 1992 losing ticket.

          Bob Dole was seen as a dud for Gerald Ford with his over the top conspiratorial "Democratic Party wars" debate performance being widely seen as a debacle.  None of that hurt him one ounce when he ran for President himself.  And his standing as a former VP nominee only helped him.

          I know nothing of William Miller who Goldwater selected in 1964.

          Henry Cabot Lodge lost none of his standing being Nixon's VP pick.

          I cannot think of anyone in the last fifty years besides James Stockdale whose standing was hurt by being on a losing ticket.

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