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For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.

These two states were relatively neutral to us this redistricting cycle. Washington, which gained a seat in the 2010 census, redistricts using a bipartisan commission, which created a new lean Democratic district, while at the same time weakening another Dem district and pushing a swingy district more to the right. So of course, I wanted to try and see what I could do without that whole "bipartisan" business.

Montana, of course, is an at-large state, so congressional redistricting did nothing for or against us.

Link to the adopted plan in Washington.

Previous Doubling Diaries: NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

Washington


Washington gets 19 districts.

DRA only has election data for two races in Washington: President 2008 and Senate 2010. 2008 was a rather typical election for a Democrat running for President, while 2010 was the closest federal election since Maria Cantwell's upset victory over long-term incumbent Slade Gorton in 2000. So between these two races, we should get a good idea what these districts look like politically.

Northwest


1
VAP: 84.4 White, 7.9 Hispanic
57.1 Obama, 51.7 Murray

Open. The very blue counties of San Juan and Whatcom, swingy Skagit County and a small part of Snohomish. Pretty close to the statewide total for both races, but about half a point redder. It would take a colossal failure by the Dem nominee to lose this. Likely D

2
VAP: 79.4 W, 7.2 H, 7 Asian
56.1 Obama, 50.9 Murray

Open? Rick Larsen is registered to vote in Everett but most media sources list his residence as Lake Stevens, which is located in the 3rd. Swingy Island County and part of Snohomish, including the cities of Everett and Marysville. Same as before, but a slightly worse again for Obama/Murray, this time by 1.5 points off the statewide performance. Still, the Boeing town Everett provides a good boost for Democrats. If Larsen runs here, he takes a small hit in Obama performance, but he'd be fine. Likely D again.

3
VAP: 76.2 W, 7.1 H, 11.1 A
57.9 Obama, 50.5 Murray

Rick Larsen (D-Lake Stevens?) lives here? See above for the confusion. Snohomish County. Even if Larsen doesn't live here, he may want to run here, he gets a small boost in Obama performance as opposed to the small hit in the 2nd. Obama outperforms Murray in this district. Likely D

4
VAP: 79.8 W, 5.2 H, 7.8 A
59.8 Obama, 55.8 Murray

Open. Edmonds in Snohomish County, Shoreline in King, and crosses Puget Sound to take in parts of Kitsap and Jefferson Counties. Edmonds and Kingston (Kitsap) are connected by ferry, so I don't feel too bad about this sleight-of-hand. Safe D, and I'd point out that openly gay State Rep. Marko Liias lives in Edmonds. Just sayin'.

Seattle/King County/Tacoma/Olympia


5
VAP: 79.7 W, 5.2 H, 11 A
60.8 Obama, 53.3 Murray

Open. Bothell, Kirkland, Redmond and rural King County, including North Bend and Black Diamond. Safe D

6
VAP: 68.2 W, 5.5 Black, 6.6 H, 16.2 A
58.9 Obama, 51.7 Murray

Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) lives here. Sammamish, Issaquah, Renton, Covington and rural King and Pierce Counties. The large disparity between Obama and Murray's performance gives me pause, but even Reichert would probably go down in this district, his current district is only 56.6 Obama. Reichert probably attempts a run in the new 11th.
Lean D with Reichert
Safe D if open

7
VAP: 59.8 W, 7.9 B, 5.8 H, 23.1 A
76.2 Obama, 71.5 Murray

Open. Bellevue, Mercer Island and half of Seattle. Only note I have is that Suzan DelBene grew up on Mercer Island. Also, the large Asian population could give them a chance in the primary. Safe D

8
VAP: 75.8 W, 5.3 H, 10.8 A
84.6 Obama, 81.5 Murray

Jim McDermott (D-Seattle) lives here; Jay Inslee (D-Bainbridge Island) resigned last month. Seattle and Bainbridge Island. McDerms already represents probably 90% of these constituents, he just gains Bainbridge Island. The bluest district in the state.Safe D

9
VAP: 61.6 W, 8.1 B, 12.4 H, 14 A
69.9 Obama, 65.9 Murray

Open. Part of Seattle, Vashon Island, Burien, SeaTac, Des Moines, Kent and part of Auburn, all in King County. Safe D

10
VAP: 65.1 W, 10.1 B, 9.2 H, 9.8 A
62.6 Obama, 58.2 Murray

Adam Smith (D-Tacoma), Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee, lives here. Tacoma and suburbs. Slightly less blue than his new WA-09, this district will be fine for the slightly hawkish Armed Services Ranking Member. Safe D

11
VAP: 71.6 W, 5.1 B, 9 H, 9.8 A
55.2 Obama, 49.5 Murray (Rossi win by ~1150)

Open. Federal Way and half of Auburn in King County, Pullayup in Pierce County. I speculated above that Dave Reichert would run here; it's the King County-area district with the lowest Obama performance, and it's actually the first district so far that Patty Murray has lost. albeit barely. His current district is 56.6% Obama, so this might actually represent an improvement, but even that may not be true, there are a lot of new constituents here, not least of which is Pierce County, which unlike King County is not used to voting for him for the past 20 years. So not sure how to handicap it, so I'll just say Swing.

12
VAP: 80.2 W, 5.7 H, 6.4 A
56.8 Obama, 52.2 Murray

Open. Olympia/Lacey and part of Pierce County. Former State Rep. Denny Heck, who is already running for the new Olympia area WA-10, would run here. Likely D

Statewide


13
VAP: 87.1 W, 5 H
52.8 Obama, 48.2 Murray

Open; Norm Dicks (D-Belfair) lives here. The Olympic Peninsula and the west coast of the state. State Senator Derek Kilmer, who is already running to replace Dicks, and also lives here, but this district is much more swingy than the district he's running for now. If the Washington Republicans counter with another respected state legislator, this is Swing. If they nominate a yahoo, it's Lean D.

14
VAP: 83.4 W, 11.9 H
41.3 Obama, 35.8 Murray

Open. Central part of the state, smack dab on the Cascade Mountains, based in Wenatchee and Yakima suburbs. A brand-new GOP vote sink. Safe R

15
VAP: 83.8 W, 6.6 H
55.3 Obama, 48.9 Murray

Open. Vancouver and part of Cowlitz County. Since Vancouver elects its mayors on a nonpartisan basis, I don't know if there's a recent former mayor (or the current mayor) who could run here, but perhaps an area legislator would be a good get for the Dems. Lean D

16
VAP: 66.5 W, 26.4 H
46.9 Obama, 40.3 Murray

Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Camas) lives here. Yakima and into the Vancouver Metro. Washington Democrats are afraid of Herrera Beutler, and they should be. She's young, Hispanic, and charismatic. She'd be hard to eliminate, so instead I decided to marginalize her by giving her a district that would make it hard to launch a statewide campaign. Enjoy being a House lifer, Jaime. Safe R

17
VAP: 73.9 W, 20.3 H
37 Obama, 35.5 Murray

Doc Hastings (R-Pasco), Chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, lives here. Southeast corner of the state. Worst district in the state for either Obama or Murray. Safe R

18
VAP: 85.1 W
54.3 Obama, 49.8 Murray (Rossi win by >500)

Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane) lives here. Pullman, Spokane, and Native American areas of the east-central part of the state. Rodgers would instead parachute into the 19th, because she could not survive here. Democrats would run any of the 3 state legislators who are from Spokane, but most likely 14-year incumbent state Senator Lisa J. Brown, or former Mayor Mary Verner. Lean D

19
VAP: 84.3 W, 10.6 H
38.9 Obama, 34.2 Murray

Open. Blood-red northeast corner of the state. As I said, Cathy McMorris Rodgers would run here instead of her home district of the 18th. Safe R
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So, from a 5-4 delegation on a 5-2-2 map, to a new map that would likely end up being 6-3-1, to a 19 district map that (I believe) would be 14-4-1. A good map for us.

Montana


Montana goes from one district to three! Montana is already one of the most underrepresented states in the House of Representatives.

DRA has no political data, but since I only split one county, I decided to use the great resource that is uselectionatlas.org to calculate the percentages for the 2008 Presidential election (narrow Obama loss), the 2004 gubernatorial election (narrow Schweitzer win) and Senate 2006 (narrow Tester win, with a plurality). This is probably the most labor-intensive map I've ever done in this series so far, so you little shits better be appreciative =P

1
VAP: 86.7 W, 8.4 Native
48.5 Obama (Obama win by ~2700), 51.3 Tester, 50.6 Schweitzer

Open. Missoula, Kalispell, and the heavily Native American counties along the Canadian border. The Dem stronghold of Missoula makes this the best district for all three races. For Montana, I'd call this Likely D

2
VAP: 94.2 W
48 Obama (McCain win by ~1300), 49.5 Tester (Tester win by ~2200), 50.2 Schweitzer

Open. The west part of the state, with the liberal bastions (for Montana) of Butte and Helena counteracted by the larger and swingy city of Bozeman. Again, this is pretty decently Dem seat considering the source. Lean D

3
VAP: 88.9 W, 5.5 N
44.6 Obama, 46.6 Tester, 50.5 Schweitzer

Open; Denny Rehberg (R-Billings) is running for Senate. Swingy Billings and Dem-leaning Great Falls drowned out by the vast swath of cow counties. State Senator Kim Gillan, who is running for the House, also lives in Billings, but probably wouldn't relish running in a district that was redder than the state at large. The fact that Schweitzer won it in 2004 is comforting sign, it's not a lost cause. Likely R.
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Montana goes from a 0-1 delegation to a possible 2-1.

These two states together make a 16-5-1, bringing the House as a whole so far to 333-220-52

As always, any feedback is appreciated

Poll

How many seats can Democrats win in a Doubled Montana?

8%4 votes
45%21 votes
41%19 votes
4%2 votes

| 46 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 09, 2012 at 11:15:00 PM PDT

  •  thanks for the Montana map. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, General Goose, gabjoh

    odd that Schweitzer won so narrowly yet won all three districts.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Mon Apr 09, 2012 at 11:33:08 PM PDT

  •  I would change MT-1 to possible D, at best. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Flathead, Sanders and Ravalli counties are VERY red.  Missoula is certainly blue.  The two primary Indian counties of Lake and Glacier would be helpful.  The rest of the Highline counties going east along the border are mostly red until you get to Fort Peck.

    Constitutional Pres. candidate, Chuck E Cheese Baldwin has decamped his cult from FL to Flathead county.  He thinks he can launch a new effort 'to take America back'  yadda yadda from here.

    Lots of gLibertarian Constitution waving teabaggers have moved to NW MT in search of FREEDOM and LIBERTY and their fondest old west outlaw dreams.

    "Go well through life"-Me (As far as I know)

    by MTmofo on Mon Apr 09, 2012 at 11:55:06 PM PDT

    •  You're right about Flathead (Kalispell) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MTmofo

      But Sanders County is only 6000 voters (at best) and Ravalli County is in MT-02

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 09, 2012 at 11:57:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You are correct. I passed, but not well, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        my name the counties test in HS.  Mineral county is the one to the west of Missoula.  Same same as far as red goes.  They (Mineral and Ravalli) are also prodigious letter writers to editors and the web.  They may be small in number, but they are loud in voice.

        Anyhow, thanks for this analysis as a thought exercise.

        "Go well through life"-Me (As far as I know)

        by MTmofo on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 12:12:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  It seems MT-2 could be made a bit stronger (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, HoosierD42

    By giving it Cascade County (Great Falls) in exchange for some of the redder turf on it. I sketched it out in Dave's and it looks like you would need to split another county though, since just doing the logical exchanges (ie. keeping Bozeman) leaves it at 8k over target.

    Something like this would work, though it would be hard to calculate with precinct data.  I'm assuming that Bozeman is more Democratic than rural Gallatin County.

    29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    by Marcus Graly on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 05:11:20 AM PDT

    •  You're right, but (0+ / 0-)

      there isn't much to Gallatin County outside of Bozeman, and the city itself is still rather swingy. Schweitzer and Tester both lost it, though narrowly, and Obama won it narrowly. So it's probably trending our way.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 03:27:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think you'd need a minority-majority district (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thetadelta, HoosierD42

    If it can be done with 10 seats for Washington, it can certainly be done with 19.

  •  I would probably actually be more optimistic about (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    MT-02 than MT-01.

    We're bound to nominate a Missoula liberal in MT-01 who wouldn't play well in the Flathead at all. And the idea of Congressman Derek Skees just want to make me puke.

    Are you shooting for a D gerrymander or a CoI map here? If it's the latter, I'd probably prefer a Montana-Butte-Anaconda-Bozeman district and a Helena-Great Falls-Flathead-Natives district.

    By the way, Kim Gillan's State Senate district is about as red as your MT-3. Not saying that'd translate to a win district-wide though-

  •  Love it! (0+ / 0-)

    Good to see the northern Montana Native folks finally able to have a say in the house!

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