So, I've been out of the loop a bit today. Has anything relevant to the 2012 election happen today?
Not that the primary wasn't already a done deal, but I suppose it's nice to make it semi-official. Unless, of course, you sense that the suspension of Rick Santorum's campaign finally gives Newt Gingrich the opportunity to unleash his inner beast and storm from the basement to the penthouse of the GOP presidential sweepstakes.
Yeah ... I am not seeing it, either.
For now, however, we will continue posting those primary polls for the sake of posterity. The big news today, however, was the rather large helping of general election and downballot polling that came down the pike today.
Without further delay, let's get to the numbers:
GOP (PRESIDENTIAL) PRIMARY NUMBERS
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney 44, Santorum 25, Paul 13, Gingrich 10
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 42, Santorum 24, Gingrich 10, Paul 10
NEW YORK (Siena College): Romney 51, Santorum 18, Paul 11, Gingrich 6
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 34, Santorum 30, Gingrich 17, Paul 11
(PRESIDENTIAL) GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (51-44); Obama d. Santorum (52-42)
NATIONAL (Christian Science Monitor/Investors Business Daily/TIPP): Obama d. Romney (46-38)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45); Obama d. Santorum (45-42)
COLORADO (PPP): Obama d. Paul (47-42); Obama d. Romney (53-40); Obama d. Santorum (54-38); Obama d. Gingrich (55-37)
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (53-38); Obama d. Romney (52-36)
NEW YORK (Siena College): Obama d. Romney (60-35); Obama d. Santorum (62-23); Obama d. Paul (61-31); Obama d. Gingrich (65-29)
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama d. Romney (45-40); Obama d. Santorum (47-41)
VIRGINIA (Roanoke College): Romney d. Obama (46-41)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-02 (FM3 for Huffman's campaign): Jared Huffman (D) 24, Stacey Lawson (D) 9, Norman Solomon (D) 7, Susan Adams (D) 5, Michael Halliwell (R) 5, Dan Roberts (R) 5
MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D) 46, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45
NY-SEN (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 63, Wendy Long (R) 23; Gillibrand 65, Bob Turner (R) 24; Gillibrand 65, George Maragos (R) 21
NY-SEN--R (Siena College): Bob Turner 19, Wendy Long 10, George Maragos 5
VA-SEN (Roanoke College): George Allen (R) 46, Tim Kaine (D) 38
As always, a handful of observations await just past the jump....
- Besides just being a joke on general principle (the rule of thumb: if every other poll says something different from yours, chances are everyone else isn't the one that is wrong), there are real issues with that Roanoke poll in Virginia. As my colleague David Nir pointed out today, both the Senate and presidential trial heat nums are preceded by questions about the level of commitment the respondent has to Christianity. There are also, just to prime the pool a little more, Obamacare questions thrown in before the trial heat questions are asked. While it is not a sacrosanct rule that trial heats have to be asked first (approvals and generic questions often come first), it is damned near a sacrosanct rule that you don't put policy questions before horserace ones. Might explain why Roanoke, and ONLY Roanoke, is on this particular pro-GOP island. Hell, even the House of Ras won't join them on this particular result.
- Speaking of the House, one has to smirk at least a little bit looking at their Massachusetts Senate poll today. After all, there was no shortage of right-wing pundits and "serious" analysts who discounted PPP's recent poll showing Elizabeth Warren leading Scott Brown, asking us to consider the source. That source just got a most unusual bit of confirmation, didn't it?
- That Huffman internal in the heavily Democratic CA-02 underscores again what might be one of the more underreported stories of the 2012 congressional cycle, and one with potential legitimate peril for Democrats. This poll makes it look quite possible that the top two finishers in June's open primary will be Democrats. By the new primary rules in the state of California, the top two finishers ... regardless of party ... will advance to the general election. The peril for Democrats is that warring Democratic candidates, having advanced to November, will suck up a ton of cash trying to beat another Democrat. Those donations, of course, would be better used beating Republicans in November. And there are no less than three major races in California where such a scenario is legitimately possible, including the two potentially expensive incumbent-on-incumbent showdowns in CA-30 (Berman v. Sherman) and CA-44 (Hahn v. Richardson). Right now, it seems unlikely that Republicans will be saddled with a similar GOP-on-GOP November showdown, with only the very slight chance that the high desert-based open seat in CA-08 might see such a scenario.
- Markos already touched on this earlier today, but it bears repeating: if Barack Obama really has a lead of close to 20 points among women (and more than one pollster has had this result), it is goodnight for Mitt Romney. He would need a historical level of support among male voters to offset such a surge against him by female voters. To say that such a historical wave is unlikely would be an enormous understatement.