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Using TPM's aggregation of the latest poll numbers, here is the current state of the electoral battleground. I'm even keeping in Rasmussen polls to give the GOP an unwarranted bump in their numbers.

Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin really aren't swing states anymore. And while Missouri doesn't feel like a swing state anymore, it sports a closer margin than most of the other states on this list. In fact, other than Iowa, nothing on this list looks particularly tight at the moment. (And remember, the aggregates would look even worse for the GOP if I omitted Rasmussen's bogus results. Omit the GOP's favorite pollster, and Arizona is suddenly a 2.5-point Romney lead. Missouri is a 45-45 tie.)

So let's take those numbers and slap them onto a map:

Electoral map, Obama 341 electoral votes, Romney 197
The big difference from 2008, when Obama got 365 EVs to John McCain's 173 is that Obama loses Indiana, Iowa and Nebraska's single electoral vote from its Omaha-based district. But that's it. The end result is still a 341-197 landslide.

And with Romney losing Latinos and women by landslide numbers, any effort to turn this slide and claw back some of these states will be particularly difficult—and he still has to hold on to those few states in which he currently leads.

So what do Republicans have to say about all this? Gas prices! Gas prices! Gas prices!

Last time I checked, gas prices were high now. It ain't doing Romney a lick of good.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 11:34 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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