Skip to main content

Using TPM's aggregation of the latest poll numbers, here is the current state of the electoral battleground. I'm even keeping in Rasmussen polls to give the GOP an unwarranted bump in their numbers.

Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin really aren't swing states anymore. And while Missouri doesn't feel like a swing state anymore, it sports a closer margin than most of the other states on this list. In fact, other than Iowa, nothing on this list looks particularly tight at the moment. (And remember, the aggregates would look even worse for the GOP if I omitted Rasmussen's bogus results. Omit the GOP's favorite pollster, and Arizona is suddenly a 2.5-point Romney lead. Missouri is a 45-45 tie.)

So let's take those numbers and slap them onto a map:

Electoral map, Obama 341 electoral votes, Romney 197
The big difference from 2008, when Obama got 365 EVs to John McCain's 173 is that Obama loses Indiana, Iowa and Nebraska's single electoral vote from its Omaha-based district. But that's it. The end result is still a 341-197 landslide.

And with Romney losing Latinos and women by landslide numbers, any effort to turn this slide and claw back some of these states will be particularly difficult—and he still has to hold on to those few states in which he currently leads.

So what do Republicans have to say about all this? Gas prices! Gas prices! Gas prices!

Last time I checked, gas prices were high now. It ain't doing Romney a lick of good.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Apr 11, 2012 at 11:34 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Chris Bowers, GainesT1958, RF, CJB, Sean Robertson, glitterscale, chuco35, eeff, rubyr, etatauri, Sandy on Signal, jnfr, cvannatta, Creosote, mengelhart, Morgana, Delilah, kalihikane, AlyoshaKaramazov, gayntom, mkfarkus, pollbuster, itskevin, oceanview, TexDem, roseeriter, kismet, Brian82, Sophie Amrain, KayCeSF, lyvwyr101, Leaves on the Current, vacantlook, Gowrie Gal, vcmvo2, maybeeso in michigan, bloomer 101, revbludge, kamarvt, Brooke In Seattle, Gary Norton, Beetwasher, markdd, Carnivorous Plantling, Ginny in CO, coolbreeze, kathny, Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse, Russgirl, HoundDog, fou, blueoasis, Hedwig, sea note, jobird, Babylon, Sapere aude, bear83, Dartagnan, puakev, TtexwiTyler, Via Chicago, flumptytail, sfbob, joedemocrat, uciguy30, GeorgeXVIII, TomP, chicago minx, jwinIL14, BobBlueMass, prettyobvious, Involuntary Exile, NewDealer, bythesea, elwior, CDH in Brooklyn, TomFromNJ, catly, noddem, CeeusBeeus, My Spin, sarahofsteel, lissablack, Tennessee Dave, fayea, legendmn, Danish Brethren, Bule Betawi, divineorder, matmak, Kaneblues, Norm in Chicago, StuHunter, followyourbliss, MKSinSA, aj2k, Larsstephens, Railfan, Parsifal, Laurilei, NJpeach, on board 47, ericlewis0, stevenaxelrod, no way lack of brain, annieli, kerflooey, Mr MadAsHell, BlueJessamine, Zutroy, NormAl1792, AnotherAmericanLie, trumpeter, PorridgeGun, BarackStarObama, healthy, Druggy Bear, Curiosity, SteelerGrrl, rscopes, KingofSpades, Auriandra, JTinDC, RhodaA, cwsmoke, teachered, pimutant, Deep Texan, bbkenn92, 2thanks, JGibson, jan4insight, hardart, BusyinCA, wxorknot, raina, Marjmar, pashber, ShoshannaD, journalisk, John Crapper, 6ZONite, JayRaye, poopdogcomedy, BadKitties

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site