A few weeks ago, the House of Rasmussen released a poll which, tellingly, was right in line with the bulk of other polls in the battleground state of Ohio. They had Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state by eight points (48-40).
Today, they released a poll showing an incrementally larger margin for the president over Mitt Romney. A lead of eleven points (51-40).
In Massachusetts.
C'mon, now ... I mean, I get that Romney is a former governor of the state of Massachusetts (though it seems to be a subject that he wishes to avoid discussing, of course). But since the five previous polls in the state gave Obama leads ranging from 16-24 points, to say he's suddenly nearly halved the lead here, in a month where his national numbers have scarcely budged, seems a little ... what's the word ... optimistic?
On a light polling day, here is that extraordinary poll, along with a handful of others:
GOP (PRESIDENTIAL) PRIMARY POLLING:
PENNSYLVANIA (American Research Group): Romney 44, Santorum 40, Gingrich 7, Paul 5
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)
MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (51-40)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 45, Walter Dalton (D) 36; McCrory 46, Bob Etheridge (D) 35; McCrory 47, Bill Faison (D) 30
A few thoughts, as always, just past the jump.
- Our sole (and quite possibly, final) poll from the GOP primary is rather telling. While I do not doubt that another health scare for his daughter played a role (any dad would tell you the same), the fact that Pennsylvania was no longer a given for Santorum simply had to play a role in his decision to suspend his campaign. A win in his home state, on the same day that he got smooshed elsewhere in the northeast, would have provided a dollop of triumph from which to exit the stage. A shutout loss, topped off by a narrow defeat in the state he served for over a dozen years in Congress, would've been nothing short of humiliating. And ARG confirms what PPP told us last week: a Romney win was very possible in the Keystone State.
- Speaking of primary polling, another milestone today: it looks like Gallup, which has run a daily tracker of the mood of the national electorate in the GOP primary since December, will no longer pursue polling the primary. I do not doubt that Ron Paul fans are flooding the inboxes at Gallup today, but it is a wise decision. Gallup is simply affirming what most of us have known for some time—the primary season is over.
- Looking ahead, it is notable that Barack Obama has now moved out to a five-point edge in North Carolina, according to PPP. It continues a reliable recent trend that virtually all of the close 2008 battlegrounds (with the notable exceptions of Iowa and Indiana) are staying in the president's camp, at least for now.
- What happens in the polls in the next few weeks, however, should be awfully telling. To what extent, now that his nomination is finally a foregone conclusion, will Mitt Romney get a bounce? By all rights, he should see some elevation in his polling numbers, as he consolidates support. However, it is not a given—Buzzfeed's Zeke Miller made the fascinating observation that Mitt Romney is the least popular major party non-incumbent presidential candidate in nearly a generation. Dating back to 1996, all of the presidential contenders finished their primary seasons with net favorability ratings of plus-17 or better. Mitt Romney leaves the primary at a negative-12. Ouch.