For a while there (at least in the presidential race), the House of Ras looked like they had finally joined the mainstream. Gone were the days of results that were predictably several points to the good for Republican candidates. In the early part of this year, their numbers were right in line with the rest of the pollster world in key presidential states, and even marginally more optimistic for team Obama in a couple of cases.
With Mitt Romney now cemented as the Republican nominee, however, it is looking like the House is reverting to midseason form.
The numbers, to demonstrate:
GOP (PRESIDENTIAL) PRIMARY POLLING:
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 36, Santorum 18, Paul 15, Gingrich 10PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Santorum (47-41)
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-44)
PA-04—D (Polk-Lepson Research): Ken Lee 9, Henry Perkinson 7
PA-04—R (Polk-Lepson Research): Chris Reilly 18, Scott Perry 13, Sean Summers 5, Mark Swomley 3, Kevin Downs 2, Eric Martin 2, Ted Waga 1
UT-04 (Mason Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune): Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 46, Carl Wimmer (R) 45; Matheson 45, Mia Love (R) 42; Matheson 47, Stephen Sandstrom (R) 41
UT-04—R (Mason Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune): Carl Wimmer 35, Mia Love 23, Stephen Sandstrom 14
A few thoughts, as always, just past the jump...
- Within days of Romney effectively securing the nomination, Rasmussen sees a pretty decent bounce for the Republican. That sentence, without a doubt, was the catalyst for smirks on the faces of roughly half of the people reading this Wrap right now. They also finish up their treatment of North Carolina, and I see a trend developing. A bit earlier in the cycle (as in, a few weeks ago), their presidential numbers were right in the range where other pollsters were registering numbers, but their downballot numbers seemed tilted considerably rightward. For the second poll in a row (MA-Sen, followed by NC-Gov), their downballot numbers seemed reasonable, but their presidential numbers were a bit more GOP-friendly. This North Carolina result (Romney +2) isn't as comically tilted as Massachusetts (Obama +11) was earlier this week, though.
- If I were the DCCC, I'd be very nervous about that Mason Dixon poll out of Utah. Matheson's district is actually incrementally more amenable to the Democrats than his previous home district (the old UT-02). But he only represented about a third of his current district, meaning that he has to introduce himself to the majority of his new constituents. Matheson's saving grace—he has an enormous resource advantage over all three leading GOP contenders.
- This is just a guess, but the all-internet YouGov poll might go down in Polling Wrap history as the final poll of the cycle to bother polling the Republican presidential primary. Others have said this before, but it bears repeating, I think: it cannot be seen as a show of strength that the candidate that has had the nomination on virtual lockdown for about a month still cannot poll any better than Romney did at the close of this primary. 36 percent? Pretty weak.