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For a while there (at least in the presidential race), the House of Ras looked like they had finally joined the mainstream. Gone were the days of results that were predictably several points to the good for Republican candidates. In the early part of this year, their numbers were right in line with the rest of the pollster world in key presidential states, and even marginally more optimistic for team Obama in a couple of cases.

With Mitt Romney now cemented as the Republican nominee, however, it is looking like the House is reverting to midseason form.

The numbers, to demonstrate:


NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 36, Santorum 18, Paul 15, Gingrich 10
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Santorum (47-41)

NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-44)

PA-04—D (Polk-Lepson Research): Ken Lee 9, Henry Perkinson 7

PA-04—R (Polk-Lepson Research): Chris Reilly 18, Scott Perry 13, Sean Summers 5, Mark Swomley 3, Kevin Downs 2, Eric Martin 2, Ted Waga 1

UT-04 (Mason Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune): Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 46, Carl Wimmer (R) 45; Matheson 45, Mia Love (R) 42; Matheson 47, Stephen Sandstrom (R) 41

UT-04—R (Mason Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune): Carl Wimmer 35, Mia Love 23, Stephen Sandstrom 14

A few thoughts, as always, just past the jump...

  • Within days of Romney effectively securing the nomination, Rasmussen sees a pretty decent bounce for the Republican. That sentence, without a doubt, was the catalyst for smirks on the faces of roughly half of the people reading this Wrap right now. They also finish up their treatment of North Carolina, and I see a trend developing. A bit earlier in the cycle (as in, a few weeks ago), their presidential numbers were right in the range where other pollsters were registering numbers, but their downballot numbers seemed tilted considerably rightward. For the second poll in a row (MA-Sen, followed by NC-Gov), their downballot numbers seemed reasonable, but their presidential numbers were a bit more GOP-friendly. This North Carolina result (Romney +2) isn't as comically tilted as Massachusetts (Obama +11) was earlier this week, though.
  • If I were the DCCC, I'd be very nervous about that Mason Dixon poll out of Utah. Matheson's district is actually incrementally more amenable to the Democrats than his previous home district (the old UT-02). But he only represented about a third of his current district, meaning that he has to introduce himself to the majority of his new constituents. Matheson's saving grace—he has an enormous resource advantage over all three leading GOP contenders.
  • This is just a guess, but the all-internet YouGov poll might go down in Polling Wrap history as the final poll of the cycle to bother polling the Republican presidential primary. Others have said this before, but it bears repeating, I think: it cannot be seen as a show of strength that the candidate that has had the nomination on virtual lockdown for about a month still cannot poll any better than Romney did at the close of this primary. 36 percent? Pretty weak.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 06:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (16+ / 0-)

    "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

    by Steve Singiser on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 06:00:04 PM PDT

  •  Again, one thing that bears mention is (8+ / 0-)

    that Rasmussen's polls are of "likely voters" which is much different universe of voters than registered voters or adults, which is what most polls have been.  This "likely voter" differential bears watching as it could singal that those who will vote this Nov. will skew closer to the 2010 breakdown than 2008 (which by the way was much closer to the registered voter composition).

    •  Don't like to agree but you are right (6+ / 0-)

      LVs almost always trend several points more R than RVs.  That is why Obama has to have a great ground game... Try to replicate the closer alignment of LVs and RVs.

      The Elephant. The Rider. The Path. Figure those out and change will come.

      by Denver11 on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 06:46:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Democrats tend to engage later, (9+ / 0-)

      so a likely voter screen this early is already biased against us.

      Notice that most reputable polling firms are not polling likely voters yet. There's a reason for that.

      •  I've always suspected that African Americans (0+ / 0-)

        decide on a candidate on an over-all later time frame than other demographic groups.  Everyone knows how they as a group will end up voting, but polling every cycle always seems to show Democrats needing to build their numbers with African-Americans.  And I bet most Democratic candidates find that to be false, as no, they don't need to do more outreach to get 90% of the African-American vote, they just need to wait for them to decide.  (Outreach obviously couldn't hurt, though!)

        •  I doubt that's the case this time... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          According to DK's weekly PPP polls (and this is just from memory), African Americans are the single most enthusiastic sub-group in the electorate. So they're probably actually helping us in likely voter screens this cycle.

    •  That is what Ras says (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TomP, Fireshark, Supavash

      But he still skews very rightward until the very end near the election when his numbers start to gravitate more toward other pollsters'.

    •  ????? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Just how in the heck do you figure who a likely voter is 7 months out????? Where is Rasmussen polling registered Democrats out of? I mean a registered Democrat in say West Virginia or Kentucky might vote the party state or locally  but not for president ,I myself can see where that can skew results a little. Also  what about all the state by state polls which just don't jibe wuth Rasmussen's & Fox's polls???

    •  No (6+ / 0-)

      Rasmussen's likely voter model has more Republicans than Democrats.  The best the Republicans have done in a presidential election year the last 20 years was to break even in '04.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 06:09:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ras (0+ / 0-)

        I agree but -5, as of this morning, is still a bad number, even given Ras's tendencies. I don't think that the White House  has had a good couple of weeks, they have been knocked off message quite a bit.  This election is going to be very close, all that kleptocracy money and the weakness in the economy will hurt. The job numbers have to get better soon, they can't continue to sputter at 120, 000 a month.

        •  Haven't had a good couple of weeks? (0+ / 0-)

          Maybe one week, but beyond that, I don't know what you mean.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

          by Paleo on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 10:59:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Probably been the best couple of news cycle (0+ / 0-)

            Obama has had in ages.  How much longer are Republicans going to keep bringing up the war on women, as it just keeps going and going and makes Obama look better and better.  Rosen certainly screwed it up a bit, but at the same time, the whole snafu leaves me thinking about a girl I used to work with who was a single mother with three kids who worked her forty hours a week.  While the media wants to give us a show and portray Democrats in a poor light for once when it comes to family issues, plenty of women will look at Rosen's comments and go, I have kids and work a full-time job so damn right.

            This even covered up all the poor economic numbers over the last week, so while it seems like the war on women took a turn against Democrats, we are probably better off with this over-all news narrative than the one we could be reading, "Economic recovery hits brick wall."

    •  No I don't buy it, Rasmussen has (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, bridav58, itskevin, askew

      the same likely voter screen as they did in 2000 when they gave George Bush a 7 point lead over Al Gore on election day. The only legitimate question about Rasmussen would be, are they fraudulent, or are they bogus?

      The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

      by pollbuster on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 08:10:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd go with bogus (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        they aren't fraudulent as their polling method is Republican leaning, which makes the results Republican leaning.  Just not enough people know this.  You could also throw in "shady" as while we'll never truly know, but I'd call it an educated guess to say that Rasmussen Polling receives/received a lot of funding from conservative political circles.  

        •  Setting the sample at 33R/33D (or whatever it is) (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pollbuster, LordMike

          is an absurd assumption, so that is (choose your word) fraud-ish not incompetent-ish.

          If they sincerely did think turnout in 2012 would be like 2010, then that is incompetence not fraud, but if you thought that, then you are so incompetent that labeling yourself a "pollster" is fraud in itself.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 12:48:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The left needs to start a meme that everytime (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, GeorgeXVIII, Sherri in TX

    a "left leaning" pundit is on TV or the radio we need to ask the host what the tract record of the pollster they are quoting is. The fact of the matter is that most Democratic leaning pollsters have a better track record than most Republican leaning pollsters. Now I know  the traditional media will fall back on to their lazy "both sides have their favorite pollster meme" but many more of our "people" who don't follow blogs need to know about this.  If they at least raise it, it will start to make it into the general political consciousness.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 06:33:07 PM PDT

  •  Again, why list Rasmussen/Propoganda at all? (3+ / 0-)

    This question has been beaten to death for so long, but why do we continue to give them air?

  •  Heard snippets of Romney's speech to the NRA (0+ / 0-)

    Very impressive.  He went after President Obama as McCain never did four years ago.

    Election will be decided by less than 3% points.

    The President has to begin tying Romney to the Ryan "Hunger Games" budget, now.  He needs to immediately begin accusing him of planning to increase taxes by 350B (250 through elimination of health care deduction + 100 from mortgage deduction) on the working and middle-class.

    Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project.

    by PatriciaVa on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 08:18:45 PM PDT

    •  You thought Romney was "impressive"? (11+ / 0-)

      You're "kidding us up," right?

      I thought he was his usual lying bastard self. Obama has scarcely mentioned gun control, and Romney passed a five-day waiting list bill in Massachusetts.

      " still, and cry not aloud; for it is an unholy thing to boast over slain men." Odysseus, in Homer's Odyssey

      by Wildthumb on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 08:37:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Of course he was lying.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nimh, Englishlefty

        The difference is, a couple of months ago, he looked very uncomfortable doing so.

        Today, he seemed at ease, as if he himself believed what he was saying.

        That makes a huge difference in how the speech is received.

        Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project.

        by PatriciaVa on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 09:03:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's *never* looked uncomfortable lying... (3+ / 0-)

          He's the best liar I've ever seen... completely comfortable in his skin, could pass any polygraph with ease.  That's one of the reasons why I've worried about him.  He lies so well, no one in the media even thinks about checking his facts.


          by LordMike on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 09:25:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  When the election really heats up (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, Supavash, askew

            they'll bombard this bastard under an overwhelming avalanche of evidence of his lying. It's obvious, it's maddening, and it cries out to high heaven to be challenged hammer and tongs.

            " still, and cry not aloud; for it is an unholy thing to boast over slain men." Odysseus, in Homer's Odyssey

            by Wildthumb on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 09:49:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Amen to this and while politicians are liars (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              because it's part of the job description, I think this man goes way beyond the admittedly low standards of his profession.  I think his character is what this election is about - is this lying SOS what we want as a president?  compared to Barack Obama?  This is a rhetorical question.

    •  Romney does well in scripted situations... (7+ / 0-)

      He's not so hot anywhere else.  I wouldn't get panicky just yet.

      Why is everyone panicking on this site.  Seriously.  


      by LordMike on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 09:03:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The polls, Lord. (0+ / 0-)

        And we don't want to get cocky.

      •  I'm not very concerned (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The fact that we are still talking about VA and NC instead of MN and OR means we are looking at a 2008 map versus a 2004 map, which means we are decidedly to the left of where we've been and that we have a decisive advantage come November.  Romney could certainly rehabilitate his image and make himself palatable once more to moderate and/or suburban Republican/Republican leaning voters, but the dude is the epitome of douche bag.  Swing voters may be leery of another Obama term, but they at least can find him relatable.  And then you factor in base enthusiasm and how that translates to volunteer time; Obama will have the better ground game to target swing voters who are already more susceptible to his messaging compared to Romney's.

        If my mom starts considering Romney, than I'll know he's doing a good job of over-coming his douche bag qualities.  And I don't know of a single Democrat she's ever voted for, so her saying either Obama or not voting at all is really big for her, considering she always votes in Presidential elections and it's always Republican.  But it's only April and Romney has plenty of time to make himself not look a rich asshole.

        And it should also be noted that my mom is strong anecdotal evidence that Romney's greatest strength as a moderate Republican former governor of MA is actually a big downfall.  Instead of being able to marry a whole bunch of interest groups together, he instead comes off a slime ball politician who can't even win areas of the country that should, on paper, be considered his political base; moderate upper-class suburbanites.  He isn't genuine and people don't trust him to lead the country.  And against Obama, who has a natural pull towards highly-educated suburbanites, I just can't help but wonder where the path to victory is.

        •  Your mom will turn around in the end.... (0+ / 0-)

          I knew a guy who was adamantly not voting for McCain.  He insisted that he wasn't going to do it.  Of course, in the end, he voted for McCain.  He held his nose doing it, but he still voted.

          Don't be too despondent when she gives in.


          by LordMike on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 10:49:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  please do tell (7+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      majcmb1, IM, skibum59, jj32, dufffbeer, itskevin, askew

      what ways did McCain NOT go after Obama in 2008?

    •  Impressive and Romney never will go (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      helfenburg, Supavash, askew

      hand in hand.  If you think it's impressive that people actually believe that time as a corporate buyout specialist is some supreme qualification for any kind of elected office...then you too have drunk the kool aid.  

      The only reason Romney is even at this point is b/c of money...the guy is Division 2A as far a politician.  Santorum holds some wacky views  which basically disqualified him...but even a guy like that runs rings around Romney when it comes to campaigning.  

      1964 Cassius Clay vs Sonny Liston, 1997 Masters Tiger Woods vs Field, 2008 Barack Obama vs Field

      by ZenMaster Coltrane on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 04:17:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think the Dems have actually been doing a (6+ / 0-)

      better job than usual of defining Romney negatively and deflating his primary "victory."    Much better than usual - they seem to be operating in an effective way - what a shock.

      •  Agreed, the media narrative has hardly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        been congratulatory of Romney.  He wins the primary, and now we are questioning what his wife has done her entire adult life.  While not positive for us, it certainly hasn't been positive for Romney.  And Romney finally winning the primary season should have created a positive roll-out for his campaign and been one of the easiest instances of achieving free positive press.  Look, I'll be in a history book now, run a profile of my life!

  •  So compared to 2008, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    majcmb1, bridav58, IM, itskevin

    Rasmussen has a 10 point swing nation wide(+7D to +3R) but only a 3 point swing in North Carolina?

    Has there actually been any Rasmussen state poll so far that exceeds or even matches the nationwide swing they report? Or are the Rasmussen nationwide polls based on an untapped reservoir of 20 million Republicans in Alaska that everyone has overlooked so far?

    Boehner (n) North German: variant of Böhnhaas - someone who does a job they don't have the qualifications for and who typically delivers shoddy work

    by Calouste on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 08:33:36 PM PDT

  •  Kerry a fliop-flopper??? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Supavash, jj32, askew

     If  Kerry was a flip-flopper just what is Romney??? If I was Obama I would show all those snippets of when Romney ran against Ted Kennedy for the latter's senate seat and of course one's when he was governor.

  •  What Ras Is Trying (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    More Questions Than Answers

    to do is buck up Republican morale at a time when decisions are being made about whether to contribute further and in what amounts to Romney.  It is just a morale-building exercise for fundraising.





  •  Republican Donors Want To See (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, dopper0189

    that Romney can move the needle; Rasmussen and Fox are moving the needle for him.

  •  Obama only 2 down in Ras NC? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, itskevin

    Splitting the difference with PPP gives Obama a 1 or 2 point lead.  And that's assuming Ras's numbers are legit.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 06:12:07 AM PDT

    •  Bad news either way... (0+ / 0-)

      I've looked at some state to state polls on RCP and if Romney is only holding a 2 point lead in North Carolina at this juncture he has his work cut out for him. Also on RCP Montana, South Carolina(where in one poll Obama actually leads by 3 points) and Georgia have moved from likely Romney to only leaning Romney plus Arizona has went from leaning Romney to toss up. Also what is Indiana doing only in the toss up catergory? Some other states in likely Romney catergory show only 7-8 point leads when they should be 10-12 points or more.

  •  Think Rep. Matheson is more in danger in 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    that's an off year election.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 07:39:40 AM PDT

    •  But by then he'll have incumbency (0+ / 0-)

      so he won't be new to 67% of the district.  Although, I'm just playing devil's advocate, as when it comes to how he'll do, the only thing safe to say is he'll over-perform.  If that means he'll win, who knows, as I think he could go down at any time.

  •  Betting markets not impressed by Ras (4+ / 0-)

    IEM remains over 62%, and Intrade over 60%, odds of Obama re-election.  Neither has budged.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Sat Apr 14, 2012 at 11:04:06 AM PDT

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