Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

CA-15: Long-time Dem Rep. Pete Stark has a reputation for saying irascible, even downright offensive things, but seeing as he's served for forty years without interruption in a safely blue district, he's never paid a political price. That, however, might change. At a candidate forum earlier in the week, Stark leveled some wild, apparently baseless charges at his Democratic opponent, Dublin Councilman Eric Swalwell, accusing him of taking "hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes" from a developer—prompting the moderator to admonish him a second time for making personal attacks. (Stark earlier called Swalwell a "pipsqueak" and a "junior leaguer" and referred to one of his statements as "bullshit.") Stark also accused Swalwell of failing to vote in recent local elections, which turned out to be a total fabrication.

But it didn't stop there: As the two men went to shake hands after the event, Swalwell says Stark called him a "fucking crook" and a "slimeball" and said, "you're going to jail." Swalwell's campaign has since demanded proof from Stark about the bribery allegations, though of course Stark has refused to respond. I guess he's just never cared about looking like a crazy, out-of-touch old man who just makes shit up. But he's also never really had a serious opponent before, and like I say, his nonsense may finally cost him.

1Q Fundraising:

• Since 1Q fundraising reports are due on Sunday at midnight Eastern, tons and tons of campaigns flooded inboxes with press releases on Friday. But because we'll publish our full House fundraising roundup shortly, we're skipping those races and are only including Senate numbers (with one exception, and you'll understand why when you get to it):

FL-Sen: George LeMieux (R): $305K raised, $1.2 mil cash-on-hand

HI-Sen: Rep. Mazie Hirono (D): $1 mil raised; Linda Lingle (R): $1.4 mil raised

IN-Sen: Sen. Richard Lugar (R): $820K raised, $2.5 mil cash-on-hand

MA-04: Joseph P. Kennedy III (D): $1.3 mil raised; Sean Bielat (R): $175K raised

MN-Sen: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D): $1 mil raised, $5.2 mil cash-on-hand

ND-Sen: Heidi Heitkamp (D): $710K raised, $850K cash-on-hand

NE-Sen: Bob Kerrey (D): $900K raised, $556K cash-on-hand; Deb Fischer (R): $62K raised, $186K cash-on-hand; Don Stenberg (R): $244K raised, $269K cash-on-hand

OH-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D): $2.4 mil raised, $6.3 mil cash-on-hand

WI-Sen: Tommy Thompson (R): $660K raised

Senate:

CA-Sen: A number of California politicians had money stolen from their accounts by rogue treasurer Kinde Durkee, but Sen. Dianne Feinstein may have been the biggest loser, at least in the raw numbers: Durkee embezzled nearly $4.5 million from her. That's more inconvenience than anything to Feinstein, who faces token Republican opposition in the Senate race this year and temporarily covered that amount with a loan from her sizable personal coffers. But now she's asking the FEC for an exception to allow her to re-solicit donors who'd previously already maxed out to her this cycle, arguing that it wouldn't be "double dipping" when the original dip already vaporized due to circumstances beyond her control. (David Jarman)

IN-Sen: The American Action Network, which is run by former Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman, is sort of the opposite number to the Club for Growth in that it exists at least in part to prop up beleaguered Republican incumbents who are under attack for being apostates to the conservative cause. They've previously supported at least two such candidates this cycle, Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch and Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, and now they're reported dropping $600K on behalf of the guy who might be the most endangered of them all, Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar. It's a negative attack on Lugar's primary opponent, Richard Mourdock, accusing him of doing a crappy job as state Treasurer. You can watch it here.

ME-Sen: Here's another sign that state AG Bill Schneider is retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe's preferred choice to succeed her—even if she insists she's not endorsing anyone publicly. Last month, she rented her email list to Schneider, and now her campaign manager—the very guy who said the list rental was meaningless—has gone to work for him. As Eric Russell of the Bangor Daily News points out, this is "interesting given that Secretary of State Charlie Summers, the front-runner in the six-way GOP primary, worked for Snowe for more than a decade."

NE-Sen: Democrat Bob Kerrey has a new ad out saying Democrats are right about some things, Republicans right about others, and that he's "not afraid to do what’s right." You can watch it at the link.

NJ-Sen: When I state GOP state Sen. Joe Kyrillos's first-quarter fundraising numbers on Thursday, I thought, "Hey, those look surprisingly good!" But it turns out that $1.75 million figure was bogus because it included everything Kyrillos took in since forming a so-called "exploratory" committee last June. It turns out that Kyrillos only raised $917K in the first three months of the year, but don't let that number fool you, either. Fully $600K came from a single event headlined by Gov. Chris Christie, which is something Kyrillos can't exactly rely on to carry him through the next seven months. So that means he raised about $300K without special outside help—weak. (Props to Julie Sobel at The Hotline for exposing this charade.)

TX-Sen: You'd think Ted Cruz—who is, after all, the former solicitor general of the state of Texas—would know better than to put something like this in writing, but there it is: He texted Craig James, one of his Republican rivals for the GOP Senate nomination, to see if he'd be willing to go after the frontrunner, David Dewhurst, with a negative question in an upcoming debate. (The candidates are all allowed to ask one question of one other candidate, and James randomly pulled Dewhurst's name of a hat.) James, though, probably realizing he'd get more mileage from dropping a dime on Cruz's attempt to set up Dewhurst, went public with the text message and accused Cruz of "trying to rig the system." Now Dewhurst, of course, is piling on Cruz, too. I'm sure he now wishes he'd never hit "send." (And seriously, Craig James is a notorious narc. Who the hell in their right mind would ever trust him?)

Gubernatorial:

IN-Gov: Interesting: Are Indiana Republicans a little nervous about the state of the open-seat gubernatorial contest? A recent independent poll (the first of the race) showed Republican Mike Pence leading Democrat John Gregg by a not-entirely-intimidating 44-31 spread—and now they're deigning to train their attacks on Gregg, something they hadn't really done until now. Quite shabbily, they're trying to blame Gregg for a snafu involving state tax collection that began before he ever served in office (as state rep.) and was only discovered after he retired. They're also complaining about his attempts to use some accounting sleight-of-hand to balance the state's budget when he was House Speaker, but it doesn't seem like a particularly hard-hitting attack. But the fact that Republicans are even taking notice of Gregg seems like a positive sign.

VT-Gov: The Vermont governorship almost became an unexpected open seat because Dem Gov. Peter Shumlin tried to chase four bears out of his back yard! Needless to say, Shumlin was very unsuccessful and only narrowly avoided getting turned into dinner himself. Who does he think he is? Cory Booker?

WI-Gov: This is a welcome sign: Even though some unions (such as AFSCME) have made their opposition to Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett quite clear, Barrett just picked up his first labor endorsements, from the Amalgamated Transit Union, Operating Engineers Local 317, and the Iron Workers District Council of North Central States. Combined, they represent about 5,000 active and retired workers in Wisconsin. (Note that's quite a bit smaller than the 66,000 members AFSCME has in the state.)

Barrett has also released a new ad, in which Democratic state Sen. Jon Erpenbach, a key leader of the protest movement against Gov. Scott Walker in 2011, lends his support. You can watch it at the link.

And while we're discussing the airwaves, Secretary of State Doug La Follette, who has trailed badly in Democratic primary polling, is also out with an ad (his first), a sort of quirky spot in which he likens Wisconsin's government to a small wind-up toy cow that's ceased moving... and says his "steady hand" is the thing to get it started up again. Interestingly, La Follette finishes his ad with the "... and I approve this message" disclaimer, but so far as I know, that's only a requirement of federal, not Wisconsin, law. Anyhow, you watch the ad here or below:

House:

FL-18: I don't know if anyone's ever succeeded in knocking off a Republican incumbent by running to the left in the primary, but Martin County Sheriff Robert Crowder sure is trying. He's challenging Rep. Allen West, in response to West's lunatic throwback comments that "78 to 81 members of the Democrat Party" in Congress are also "members of the Communist Party," Crowder says the remarks are "bizarre" and "reckless." He also says that West "caters" to "the ultra-right wing of the Republican Party," which is certainly correct—and which will make it rather difficult for Crowder to win by trying to act somewhat sensible.

MN-06: Tim Murphy of Mother Jones has an in-depth profile of wealthy hotelier Jim Graves, who just announced he'd run against GOP crazy-lady-in-chief Michele Bachmann. It's a very helpful piece because we're often lack sufficient detail about the beliefs and background of first-time candidates, so I'd encourage you to read it. Graves is going to have to come up with some better, more direct answers to some of the questions Murphy asks, though, when he hits the trail in earnest. Also of note, Graves has kicked off his campaign with a $100K loan, and according to Murphy, there will be more where that came from.

NJ-09: Dem Rep. Steve Rothman is out with his first ad, touting his "progressive values," such as his support for marriage equality. The narrator also calls him "the only candidate who fully supports a woman's right to choose"—a claim that I'm sure will rankle his primary opponent, Rep. Bill Pascrell. You can watch at the link or below:

NY-06: A big union get for Assemblyman Rory Lancman: 1199 SEIU, a powerful local service employees union, just gave him their endorsement. In the linked article, Capital Tonight's Liz Benjamin suggests that there's a "split" among labor in the Democratic primary here, but the reality is that while a few smaller unions have gone in other directions, most of the big players are supporting Lancman. (One exception is the Hotel Trades Council, which went to Assemblywoman Grace Meng.)

NY-08: After all that nonsense, it appears that Dem Rep. Ed Towns will not seek re-election, at least according to multiple reports that started circulating on Sunday night. Towns had run a weirdly invisible campaign for quite some time, so this development is hardly a surprise. It's also good news for progressives, because it puts Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries (who had been challenging Towns in the primary and has a reputation as a reformer) in the driver's seat. He'll have to stare down NYC councilman Charles Barron first, but Jeffries should get all the support he needs to prevail. (No one wants to let Barron, who has a legendary reputation for saying absolutely insane shit—like calling Muammar Gaddafi "my hero, an African freedom fighter"—win this thing.) And in this heavily Democratic seat, the winner of the June 26 primary is guaranteed to win the general as well.

PA-12: Rep. Jason Altmire has a harshly negative ad featuring man-on-the-street types saying that Rep. Mark Critz "doesn't represent western Pennsylvania." Notably, the spot repeats an utterly bogus and debunked line of attack by Altmire that Critz "failed to stand up to the tea party" when Democrats tried to outfox the GOP on a budget vote by deliberately abstaining. (Critz went along with the plan, while Altmire wildcatted; the full background is here.) Altmire got a lot of heat from senior Democratic leaders (including Steny Hoyer) when he tried this the firs time, so it bears watching whether he'll face serious pushback again. You can watch the ad at the link or below:

TX-16: The saga of Eric Cantor's $25K contribution to the mysterious Campaign for Primary Accountability just keeps going further down the rabbit hole. (CPA: chaotic neutral, or chaotic evil? Discuss. Or just roll 2D4.) It's actually bubbling up as an issue in the Democratic primary in the El Paso-based, safely-Dem TX-16, where long-timer Silvestre Reyes is facing Beto O'Rourke, a young reformer who's gotten the CPA's verbal backing (though no money, at least not yet, though perhaps some will show up closer to the primary). Reyes is now wondering out loud whether any of that Cantor money is going to find its way into backing O'Rourke, and is even trying to compare O'Rourke to Cantor on policy grounds—a very strange thing indeed, given that O'Rourke is running to Reyes' left.

For what it's worth, the CPA now says the Cantor money has already been spent, and in fact, they're saying it was spent on the Don Manzullo-Adam Kinzinger GOP primary in Illinois, just as Cantor claims he requested. But the CPA previously denied they earmarked the money, and in fact still deny it, so if they didn't silo the money, I don't really know how they can argue that Cantor's specific $25K has already been spent if it was just dumped into their general treasury. Perhaps they're sick of this story, too, and want to get people off their backs? (David Jarman and David Nir)

UT-04: The Salt Lake Tribune commissioned Mason-Dixon to conduct a poll of the race in Utah's 4th Congressional District, site of the state's only competitive congressional contest (in the general election). Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson, whose legendary political skill and family name are the only reasons this affair is even competitive in the first place, leads all three Republican hopefuls by the narrowest of margins, but he'll have a devil of a time getting over that 50% hump if this survey is accurate. Matheson is up 45-42 over Saratoga Springs mayor Mia Love, 46-45 over ex-state Rep. Carl Wimmer, and 47-41 over ex-state Rep. Stephen Sandstrom.

As you may know, even though Matheson has long represented extremely red turf, the legislature completely chopped up his old district, meaning he represents just 33% of the new 4th. Going strictly by presidential numbers, it's actually a touch bluer than the old 2nd (56-41 McCain rather than 57-39), but Republicans included the fast-growing (and scarlet-red) parts of Utah County west of Utah Lake in the 4th. So even if Matheson somehow hangs on, all else being equal, this seat is actually likely to become more Republican over time. But that's a worry for another day: In the here and now, Matheson will also have to contend with favorite son Mitt Romney (words you don't usually hear) at the top of the ballot. It's going to be a rough ride.

P.S. The poll also tested a hypothetical Republican primary, though the GOP candidates all have to go before delegates at the April 21 party convention first. If someone gets 60% of the delegate vote, there's no primary. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance, so a three-way primary isn't possible. But in any event, M-D pitted all three contenders against one another, finding Wimmer on top with 35%, Love at 23, and Sandstrom at 14. (Relatedly, see our UT Fundraising item in the Grab Bag below.)

Other Races:

San Diego Mayor: You may recall that not long ago, I pish-poshed GOP state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher's seemingly bold decision to cast off his status as "moderate Republican rising star" and instead become a full-fledged independent. Rather, it looked like a merely expedient play in the San Diego mayor's race, because Fletcher was languishing in the polls and needed something to differentiate himself from the two other Republicans and claw his way into the Top 2.

Well, expedient it may have been, but if the new SurveyUSA poll of the field is any indication, it worked: Fletcher has doubled his support since their previous poll last September and is now in second. Carl DeMaio is in first at 28 (up from 25), with Fletcher second at 26 (up from 13), Bob Filner at 20 (down from 24), and Bonnie Dumanis is at 13 (down from 14). Unfortunately, that's bad news for Dems: DeMaio is one of the Republicans, and Fletcher's surge seems to have come mostly at the expense of retiring Rep. Bob Filner, the only Democrat in the race. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Ohio: Republicans in Ohio gerrymandered the Buckeye State to within an inch of its life, which made calculating presidential results according to the new congressional district lines a brutal endeavor. But jeffmd is no slouch, and he's cranked out the numbers for your enjoyment. And by "enjoyment" I mean, "so that you can get angry all over again at the fact that Ohio Democrats agreed to this outrage of a map."

PA Fundraising: Pre-primary FEC reports were due in Pennsylvania on Thursday night, covering the period from Jan. 1 to April 4 (so basically, the first quarter plus a few extra days). Bizarrely, PA-04 hopeful Chris Reilly submitted a report only covering April 1 to April 4, which is why he was initially shown as having raised $0. What a moran. Reilly later filed an amended report that presumably covers the right dates, though who knows, because it still reads "Covering Period 04/01/2012 Through 04/04/2012." In any event, at the link you'll find numbers for all 41 Keystone State candidates who filed reports, whether in competitive races or not.

PPP: Two batches of the usual miscellany from everybody's favorite pollster, Public Policy Polling: one for North Carolina and one for Colorado. Two interesting tidbits from the latter: One, Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 47-40. And two is this:

There are two things in the crosstabs on gay marriage that really stand out. Voters under 30 think gay marriage should be legal by a 77/23 margin, and independents support it by a 61/32 spread as well. That should be a real warning sign to the GOP that continuing to tack right on this issue is going to significantly hurt its ability to appeal both to the next generation of voters and to swing voters who are somewhere between moderate and liberal on social issues.
Swing Voters: Ruy Teixeira has an interesting article in the New Republic which, at its core, seems to debunk the whole idea of swing voters, or at least the notion that swing voters are somehow clustered at the very middle of the political spectrum or that they correlate most strongly with one particular psychographic sub-segment (soccer moms!! NASCAR dads!! Walmart moms!! Crate and Barrel cousins!!). Instead, swing voters exist throughout the spectrum, and what varies with their placement on the spectrum is their level of persuadability... and the key to winning is to try and pry a certain level of support out of each and every constituency, enough to cobble together a majority. The whole thing's worth a read, but here's the key graf:
Since swing voters are everywhere, a campaign might be concerned with reaching swing voters among both Hispanics and the white working class. But it seems unlikely that the same message, especially of some ill-defined centrist variety, will appeal strongly to swingers in both groups. Boringly, it may come down to the mundane task of setting support rate targets among these and other demographics and figuring out how to hit each of the targets. But however boring it may seem, that’s how you win elections.
(David Jarman)

UT Fundraising: Utah's Republican and Democratic conventions are coming up on April 21, so all federal candidates were required to file pre-convention fundraising reports with the FEC on April 9. The reports cover the period from Jan. 1 through April 1. You can find numbers for everyone who actually filed a report at the link. Also note that we've started to provide columns for money candidates donate or loan to their own campaigns. This gives you a clearer picture of who's self-funding and how much. A few highlights:

UT-02: In this open-seat race for what should be regarded as the new (and extremely red) seat Utah won in reapportionment, eight Republicans submitted reports to the FEC, but only two raised money in the six figures: former state House Speaker David Clark ($135K) and conservative activist Cherilyn Eagar ($117K). However, businessman Bob Fuehr loaned his campaign $148K, though he only raised $7K from individuals. Author/Air Force vet Chris Stewart leads the pack in cash-on-hand with $113K (he'd loaned himself $65K the prior quarter).

UT-04: Dem Rep. Jim Matheson, who chose to seek re-election in this district (he currently represents the old 2nd), far outpaced the field, pulling in $339K (and he has almost $1 mil in the bank). Saratoga Springs mayor Mia Love and ex-state Rep. Carl Wimmer both raised about $80K, while ex-state Rep. Stephen Sandstrom largely eschewed traditional fundraising (just $9K) and instead loaned his campaign $127K.  He has $131K left and Wimmer $114K; Love trails with just $39K.

Redistricting Roundup:

NY Redistricting: Well this is just terrible. A state court judge has ruled that the mathematical legerdemain which allowed Republicans to add a 63rd seat to New York's state Senate map is not unconstitutional. You can read the written opinion at the link (the details are tricky to summarize), but it's at least notable that the judge called the GOP's chicanery "disturbing." Fortunately, Democrats immediately vowed to appeal.

PA Redistricting: It looks like Pennsylvania is finally getting close to nailing down a new set of legislative maps (after the previous batch got wiped out in litigation for splitting too many municipalities, meaning the new lines won't take effect until 2014). Each chamber's map sees one seat gravitating from the state's depopulating southwest to its growing southeast, and in each case, a convenient departure made the choice of which seat to wipe out easier. In the House, it's the seat of Democrat Chelsa Wagner, recently elected Allegheny Co. Controller, and in the Senate, it's the seat of Republican Jane Orie, just convicted of multiple felonies. (If you're wondering why the GOP, despite controlling the trifecta, would consent to such a thing, it's because they didn't; while Congressional redistricting is controlled by the legislature, legislative redistricting is controlled by bipartisan commission.) (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by These Green Mountains and Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  IN-09: Pretty good low-down on the race (9+ / 0-)

    from the Indy Star.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:03:37 AM PDT

  •  Obama fundraising for March (12+ / 0-)

    $53m. Up from $45m in February and $29m in January.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:11:04 AM PDT

  •  CT Democratic candidates for Senate debate (3+ / 0-)

    Video links here
    Democratic candidates for Senate debate on Face the State

    Two of the candidates said they admired Lieberman for his ability to reach across the isle.  U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy was one of them. Oh Geez.

    There's enough on this planet for everyone's needs but not for everyone's greed. ~ Gandhi

    by CitizenOfEarth on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:16:36 AM PDT

  •  Pence is a bit of a wingnut. Indiana isn't as (9+ / 0-)

    conservative as many think, it is just solidly Republican. What I mean is that they will vote for a generic Republican over a generic Democrat, but they have a history of voting for a centrist Democrat over a wingnut Republican.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:28:18 AM PDT

    •  Certainly true (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dopper0189, General Goose, eps62, Matt Z, jncca

      Pence has a voting record like Michelle Bachmann or Steve King, but he's sneaky.  He comes off as much more reasonable than he really is.  The job of the Gregg campaign is to point out that Pence would be probably the most right-wing person ever elected statewide here.

      •  Well, not the most right wing elected EVER (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        General Goose, Matt Z

        There was Gov. Ed Jackson, the KKK's handmaiden in the 1920s.  And in the 40s and 50s there was Sen. William Jenner, a pea in the pod with Joe McCarthy who regularly indulged in Allen West/Michelle Bachmann rhetoric.

        (I don't mean to bash Indiana by bringing up these shitbags, but just wanted to provide some historical context.)

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 09:27:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Emily's List endorsing Kathy Hochul (10+ / 0-)

    Louise Slaughter in their reelection bids.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:31:43 AM PDT

  •  Arizona outreach (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    "Obama strategists are simply following the same techniques they used in 2008 when putting states like North Carolina and Indiana into play. Then, too, there was much initial skepticism, though both states ended up going for Mr. Obama."

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:33:21 AM PDT

  •  Very interesting take on Scott Walker (17+ / 0-)

    from Nixon Admin. Veteran John Dean.

    First is a personality that seeks to be a “social dominator.” Dean cited how Walker formed a “Jesus USA” club as a young child, mixing Baptist religion and patriotism, and he seems to have been running for something ever since.

    “He attended Marquette University (but has no college degree from there or any other school),” wrote Dean. “At Marquette, he was elected to the student senate, and twice sought but failed to get elected president of the student body. He ran for the Wisconsin state Assembly the same year that he lost his bid to be student president at Marquette, losing the Assembly race as well.” He added, “Walker has never stopped running. This is the behavior, writ large, of a dominator.”

    Second, Dean said, is how Walker opposes equality. “There are many examples of Walker’s harsh and uncaring treatment of those whom he does not believe to be entitled to equality,” Dean wrote. “None is more glaring than his intolerance of gays and lesbians,” referring to Walker trying to stop same-sex couples from being recognized as next of kin for hospital visitation rights.

    On the third "authoritarian" theme, seeking personal power, Dean pointed not only to how Walker undercut public employee unions to increase his own power, but on how he has made many more jobs political positions instead of civil service positions.

    Fourth, Dean writes about Walker’s approach to morality. “To be amoral, of course, is to be insensitive to moral matters,” writes Dean. “A politician like Scott Walker will wrap himself in a cloak of morality, while, in fact, acting anything but morally."

    I asked Dean whether it surprises him that a state with a progressive reputation like Wisconsin’s would elect such a leader.

    “The social scientists with whom I have discussed this subject tell me they estimate about 20 to 25 percent of any population are authoritarian followers,” suggesting that yes, he is surprised.

    “One of the reasons I write about authoritarian conservative politicians is that many people confuse a strong leader with an authoritarian leader,” he continued. “Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower were strong leaders, but not authoritarians. We have never had a so-called ‘double high’ authoritarian in the White House.”

    Dean went on: “So most people do not understand what a ‘double high’ authoritarian like Scott Walker is capable of doing. The recall vote will be an interesting test to see if the innate wisdom of the people of Wisconsin prevails and they send Walker into another line of work.

    “If they do not, you can be sure they will ultimately regret that decision, and Democrats will eventually take charge in a greatly weakened state government,” he predicted to me.

    http://host.madison.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:21:41 AM PDT

  •  Here's a general question (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Matt Z

    Are there any candidates you truly regret supporting? Like you didn't just think, "Okay. You're a Democrat, go for it." I mean, you were a fan of these guys, admired their tough campaigns, shilled for them, maybe even made donations.

    For me I have the awful and unremovable stain of Eric Massa and John Edwards on my hands.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:22:45 AM PDT

    •  I voted for Cicilline in the 2010 primary (0+ / 0-)

      I may have even thrown $5 his way (which I don't remember doing, but I got on his e-mail list somehow). Does that count?

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:26:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Does it leave the embarrassment of (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        geoneb

        send 15 dollars for Massa and frequently promoting him?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:36:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Canvassed for him in the general... (0+ / 0-)

        I didn't vote for Cicilline in the primary in 2010, but I did canvass for him when it started to look like he could actually lose. It was really just for partisan reasons, though - I actually kind of hope that he drops out and a progressive alternative emerges.

        I don't have particularly strong opinions on what was and wasn't his fault re: Providence's finances, but he's taken a lot of hits either way, and losing RI-01 would just be embarrassing for the Dems.

        •  Who are you voting for this time around? (0+ / 0-)

          I'm really not happy with the choices. I'm probably leaning slightly towards Gemma, but he kinda seems like a dick.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:12:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not sure yet (0+ / 0-)

            Gemma seems like he may be a fairly conservative Democrat, so I'm not crazy about him either, but I might still vote for him over Cicilline if I had to make up my mind right now. I'm just not sure if Cicilline can recover at this point. Like I said, my preferred scenario would probably be Cicilline dropping out and another progressive candidate deciding to run.

            •  My preferred scenario would be that too (0+ / 0-)

              but it's exceedingly unlikely.

              I contacted Gemma on his website recently with a question about DOMA and still waiting on a response. Despite that, I'm still leaning towards him because the more I think about possibly being represented by Brendan Doherty, the more I want to puke.

              22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 09:45:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I may have voted for Republican JB Van Hollen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      in for Attorney General 2010 in WI. I didn't like the Democrat that was running, and I didn't think the Van Hollen would be such a partisan. Plus my county's Democratic District Attorney endorsed JB.
      Not going to make that mistake again. It makes me sad when I think of what I did.

      Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

      by WisJohn on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:40:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I sent a little money (0+ / 0-)

        to Steve Pozner in California when he was running against Cruz Bustamante, who took something like 60% of his contributions from the Insurance industry and whom I found to be a self-serving office hopping creep and a pathetic Democrat. However, Pozner was running then as a fairly liberal, reformist Republican, so I didn't feel I was supporting someone who would go teabagger against Whitman.

        That might be the only Republican I think of that I've actually supported for something, though I haven't had many opportunities to do so in voting.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:45:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You Beat Me To The Punch.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, ArkDem14, Matt Z

      John Edwards

    •  Yes on the local LI level (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      State Senator Brian Foley who I held open houses for twice but made the still inexplicable decision to hit LI with an MTA payroll tax. We may never get this seat back in my lifetime.

    •  Kwame Brown -- DC Council (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      Fully loaded flame out. At least chances are good he won't be the chairman after 2014.

    •  Most regretted vote: (0+ / 0-)

      Hayakawa for Senate, 1976

      He managed to wake up only for the roll call votes for the Republican line.

      "During a 1978 Senate debate over a pair of treaties to transfer possession of the Panama Canal and Canal Zone from the United States to Panama, Hayakawa said, "We should keep the Panama Canal. After all, we stole it fair and square"

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    •  Not yet. (0+ / 0-)

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 12:52:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting article (0+ / 0-)

    suggesting Frank Lautenberg could be positioning himself for another re-election campaign in 2014: http://www.northjersey.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:28:03 AM PDT

    •  Why not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pHunbalanced

      He's only 93 and had a recent run in with cancer. I'm pretty sure he's one of those types who wants to be carried out on a stretcher. I guess it's extremely important then to defeat Christie. Either Booker or Pallone would be very strong opponents who at the same time wouldn't be corrupt or beholden to party bosses who consistently keep Democrats from acheiving the same sort of domination in NJ that Dems have in Maryland and New York (they ensure that suburban voters stay Republican in protest, essentially, and maintain a limited, urban-machine Democratic party that is easier to control).

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:38:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's 88 actually (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, dc1000, bumiputera

        and will be 90 in 2014. Pallone is definitely not going to run for Gov (he'd want to keep his eye open in case Lautenberg did retire), although Booker would be a great choice if it turns out his words about not running right now are just that - words. And Dick Codey too of course, who is already a statewide figure.

        Also, what do you mean, same type of domination in NJ as in New York? NJ elects Republican governors sometimes, sure, but so does New York (and hell, you'll never see a Republican mayor elected in Newark, Jersey City, or Camden). New Jersey Democrats still enjoy a sizable majority in both houses of the legislature and would have an advantage in the congressional delegation if not for the Republican gerrymandered map, but even so we'll still be able to compete in NJ-02, NJ-03, and NJ-05 (and possibly even NJ-11).

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:45:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Democrats routinely (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dufffbeer

          Dominate all levels of congressional and federal elections in NY and MD, and with a level of effortlessness that isn't there in NJ. Democrats in the above two states have strong, emerging bases of suburban support, whereas outside Bergen and a few other diviersified inner suburbs, Democrats have made no inroads into Jersey's suburbs at all and can anyone recall the last statewide Democrat to win 60+ percent of the vote?

          Dick Codey would be the best bet, I'm just not sure he still has the fire after the numerous ways state party bosses have gone about trying to screw him and drive one of the state's most popular Democrats out of politics.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:57:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No inroads into the suburbs (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, wwmiv

            Besides the suburbs in Essex, Mercer, Middlesex, Camden, Burlington, and Bergen counties, Dems do have scattered sources of strength in other suburbs (Scotch Plains/Fanwood in Union County, for instance, as well as Franklin Township in Somerset County). Morris County is also starting to get there. Demographic change is on our side in quite a few suburbs, especially in Central Jersey. While the Democratic ceiling may not be as high in NJ as in NY, the base is still pretty rock-solid, at least at the federal level.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:11:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              General Goose

              We need not be thinking about ceilings, but about floors. Given that New Jersey is heavily minority about 40%, our floor is necessarily at or near 50%.

              None of our Senate candidates has gone above the 55.5% that Lautenberg scored in 2008, nor below the 50.1% that Corzine scored in 2000.  

              The simple fact of the matter is that the relative richness of the state (it ranks in the top five state in almost all measures of wealth and is usually the highest) creates a low ceiling for us, but we also have a high floor because of the high minority share.

              22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

              by wwmiv on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:25:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  That's just it (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              General Goose

              Democratic party bosses seem to be content with this 52-57% federal ceiling. Gore won the state by essentially as much as Obama did. In the various statewide races, Democrats made statistically unimportant gains at a time when they made serious strides in many traditionally Republican areas of New York and Maryland, and even in the Philly suburbs there was large scale movement to Democrats in Federal races that we did not see in NJ.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:36:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Wealth (0+ / 0-)

                The largest difference between Jersey and the other states is the level of wealth. It's harder for us to make inroads here because they're largely wealthier suburbs than the ones we've made inroads into in Maryland, NY, and Philadelphia.

                22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                by wwmiv on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:39:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  MontCo (0+ / 0-)

                  Bucks and Chester aren't mostly upscale? Westchester, Orange, Monroe, aren't upscale? CT-04 isn't extremely upscale?

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                  by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:08:47 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Monroe County NY? (0+ / 0-)

                    Not particularly upscale to my knowledge...same with Orange. And Westchester and CT-04 are, sure, but those are no less Republican than NJ - CT-04 had a Republican Rep. until recently and Westchester veered sharply to the right in 2009/2010, first dumping Andy Spano and then nearly giving Suzi Oppenheimer the boot.

                    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:12:45 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  also Bucks is pretty working class (0+ / 0-)

                      to my knowledge, but it hasn't moved left like the other suburbs (voting for Pat Toomey for instance - same with Chester which, from my outsider's perspective, seems to be more exurban than suburban).

                      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:14:06 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Chester is sort of weird (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        sapelcovits, ArkDem14

                        The suburbs along the Mainline (the primary commuter rail line serving the area) are relatively dense and almost have the character of a first ring suburb. These areas tend to be relatively liberal and more diverse than the rest of the county which is indeed primarily exurban-to-rural, very white and more conservative (excluding similarly dense West Chester, the area around HBCU Lincoln University and the Hispanic mushroom-growing areas around Kennett Square).

                        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

                        by okiedem on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:46:27 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  Obama got 60% of the vote in CT-04 (0+ / 0-)

                      a liberal 10 term Republican incumbent lost, and the Democrat held it easily in 2010 against a top Republican recruit. I'd say it's more Democratic than many of the suburban areas of NJ with a similar character.

                      I may have been wrong on the Philly suburbs. And I meant htat Rochester was traditionally a Republican area, and Onondaga used to be a swingish county. Democrats have made serious strides becoming stronger in upstate country that used to be Republican and in some of the suburbs. We haven't seen a similar growth in normally Republican areas of NJ. But maybe you can solely attribute that to wealth.

                      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:04:39 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Well CT-04 isn't a totally fair comparison (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        since it does contain a big urban area (Bridgeport) and I think Stamford is pretty similar too...Westport is an exception, though (limousine liberals). And Democrats have made progress in traditionally Republican areas in NJ (remember, Republicans held the legislature a decade ago). Bergen County is a pretty good example of this. I think Burlington County is also turning bluer at the local level.

                        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                        by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:26:35 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  The thing is (0+ / 0-)

                          on a federal level (Democrats certainly made big gains locally despite Christie's top of the ticket win suggesting Christie is just voters FU to the political establishment), Bergen started this trend in the 1980s, sped up in the 1990s, and has remained mostly stagnant in in the 2000s. But it is the reason why New Jersey is almost impossible for Republicans in Federal races now.

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:31:52 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  What big gains locally did Dems make in 2009? (0+ / 0-)

                            I wasn't really following local races then, but I do remember losing an Assembly seat in a fairly Dem-leaning district (LD-04). And Dems actually did well in Bergen in 2011, both at the county level and with Bob Gordon, Connie Wagner, and Tim Eustace all winning in radically weakened district. Corzine also won it in 2009, although I'm not sure what would have happened if Loretta Weinberg hadn't been on the ticket.

                            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                            by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:37:06 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Sorry, I meant 2011 (0+ / 0-)

                            Despite Christie throwing his full weight (cue joke) behind the Republican candidates. Christie worked hard, and it was a lower turnout local election and Republicans still lost, right in the aftermath of the 2010 wave, so the optics were understandably bad.

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 02:32:03 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

              •  Isn't New Jersey Heavily Jewish? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, jncca

                I suspect Lieberman's presence on the Gore ticket was responsible for Gore doing better than Obama in New Jersey, much like Gore's 67% victory in the old NY-09 compared to Obama's 55% win.

                •  also (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca

                  Gore did very well in Monmouth and Ocean counties (I believe he actually won Monmouth), both of which have since trended hard right. Obama, meanwhile, won Somerset County (which Gore lost), reflecting the growth of Indian-American and other favorable voters in the last decade. New Jersey has both R-trending and D-trending areas.

                  22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 09:41:48 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  well you should keep your eye on (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                the LD-16 special election this fall. It has traditionally Republican areas in Hunterdon and Somerset counties, but it also added Princeton and South Brunswick, both of which will turn out to vote for Obama. And our likely candidate, Marie Corfield, got pretty close last year. And don't forget how we picked up a State Senate seat in 2010 that had previously been the stomping grounds of moderate Rep. Bill Baroni and contained several wealthy suburbs.

                22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 09:45:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  It would be god if he stepped down at the end of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gramofsam1

      his term. He could die, and Christie might still be governor, and then we'll have another Republican senator on our hands.

      Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

      by WisJohn on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:42:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah, that's my concern too (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, JBraden

        although it seems a bit macabre to say "yo step down, we're worried you'll be dead in the next six years."

        And if he does run for re-election, then the alternative is...Steve Sweeney? ugh, someone get me a bag and some ginger ale.

        This just makes beating Christie next year even more important, even if he's riding high right now.

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:50:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Christie isn't riding high right now though (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dufffbeer, JBraden

          His approvals are tied, and most people think he's a bit of a jackass. Democrats just need to put up a competent opponent.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:54:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think Frank is Great and I am no ageist but I (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, General Goose

      would feel much better knowing that Corey Booker replaced Chris Christie as Governor before seeing Lautenberg run again just to safely control any vacancy appointments due to mother nature.

      •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        General Goose

        I do think, though, that it's irresponsible for someone of such an advanced age not to consider retirement.  I realize Sen. Lautenberg is healthy by 88-year-old standards, but at that age things can take a turn for the worse FAST.  My great-aunt was in fine shape until well past her 92nd birthday, but then she had a swift decline and was gone in months.

  •  Mitt wants to raise $600M -- or $750M? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, ArkDem14, askew, itskevin

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    Aides and leading donors to Mitt Romney are preparing a major expansion of the campaign’s fund-raising efforts to prepare for a general election contest against President Obama, with the goal of raising up to $600 million, according to several people involved in the discussions.
    http://www.politico.com/...
    Romney told the donors that he's aiming to raise $750 million for his campaign - an ambitious goal that would likely put him close to parity with President Obama. Romney and his campaign have detailed the donor program in a number of calls with bundlers this week, other participants said.
    Flip flopping on fundraising too?

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:33:19 AM PDT

  •  Ed Kilgore on the presidential "referendum" (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.tnr.com/...

    "It turns out that political science is not an infallible guide to this particular subject. The sample size of recent presidential reelections is limited, and the most recent, in 2004, cut against the “referendum” hypothesis, and the closely associated belief that undecided voters will break sharply against incumbents late in the election cycle."

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:35:37 AM PDT

  •  CA- 15: Pete Stark should retire (7+ / 0-)

    If Ed Towns could figure it out, Stark should be able to as well.  It's not as if this is a swing seat either.

    -7.75, -8.10; All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent.

    by Dave in Northridge on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:36:26 AM PDT

    •  Filing deadline passed (0+ / 0-)

      and the primary is coming up in less than two months. A bit late for that, even if California has provisions for removal from the ballot (or even if he just up and quits campaigning).

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:46:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Didn't a Republican (0+ / 0-)

        try to retire after the filing deadline in 2006? I thought that he was bullied into not retiring because there was no way to replace him on the ballot and it would hand the seat to the Democrat.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 12:57:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  He's our out atheist in Congress... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, Matt Z

      ...so I feel it when he's a jerk.  And he's definitely being a jerk.

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:05:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That debate sounded like the equivalence (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, dc1000, Matt Z, jncca

        Of something from Mayor Adam West. "Is it true you enjoy stomping kittens, Mr. Stallwell." Or "So you admit then, having stolen all our water?"

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:14:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Bob Kerrey, what are Republicans right about? (0+ / 0-)

    Please, it's not 2008 and you're no Obama.  

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:37:20 AM PDT

    •  To Nebraskans (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, dufffbeer, tietack, OGGoldy, askew, Matt Z

      Republicans are right about lots of things.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:52:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The state is called "Nebraska" (8+ / 0-)

      It's just north of Kansas, and kind of a little bit south of south Dakota, it's that one state that sort of has both Wyoming and Colorado sort of meshed up against it's actually rather deformed western side. Beautiful scenery, clean water, good fishing. Popular Republican Governor (60% approval!). Popular Republican Senator (53% approval -- Ben Nelson's is 36%). Three Republican representatives (out of three). R+13 Cook PVI (for comparison, Vermont is D+13). "Republicans are right about some things." Maybe not. But Nebraska obviously thinks so.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:54:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is why Democrats lose even when they win. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Matt Z

        Democrats never try to change anyone's thinking about the issues.  Their persuasion is limited to reassuring people with profoundly wrong views that the Democratic candidate will largely honor their wrong views.  Which, in fact, they end up doing.

        But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

        by Rich in PA on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:03:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  To be fair (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, TofG, Matt Z

          He also says pretty clearly that Democrats are right about other things.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:07:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I have to say that I like that thinking (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Rich in PA

          Part of the reason why Republicans have moved discussion so far to the right is that they are absolutely not afraid to lose elections, and they are emboldened enough that no obstruction, no misrepresentation, is too brazen. They have spent the last 42 years pushing back basic political discussions to the right, firmly standing up for their beliefs even when said beliefs might not have had the most popularity. They essentially make their own kool-aid, and then sell it, and very successfully.

          You are sort of right that if Democrats never learn to actually promote a cohesive progressive vision for America, we won't ever have one. I had hoped Obama would be such a President, but once in his office he genuinely made the mistake of thinking Republicans would try to legislate and he continually underestimated the lengths they would go to to make America, and by extension, him, fail. These days Obama seems to have a bit of the fire back in time for elections, so we'll see if he can elected again and what type of policy promoter he becomes at that point. Really, these health care problems, and unpopularity are mainly because of how awfully Obama pitched it to voters and how few actually know what it does.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:08:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I hate that thinking. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, wwmiv

            It's condescending and naive. Ben Nelson's last ADA score was 50. Kerrey's was 85. He's pro-choice, pro-buffet rule, pro-gay marriage. Electing Kerrey does move the state left.

            (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:16:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In what way was what I said condescending (0+ / 0-)

              and naive? And where did I even mention Kerrey?

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:18:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You said "I like that thinking" (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                General Goose

                this entire persistent attitude extreme partisans have that they just don't understand us it grossly misses the point of why voters vote the way they do. It's naive to think that you can change someone's mind just by being right and cohesively standing up for what's right, actually it's borderline delusional. It's condescending to voters as well, you're treating them like idiots.

                And the country has not "shifted right" either, at least not in any meaningful, representative way. Maybe in a narrow American left-right linear sense but that's meaningless to harp upon.

                I am really too pre-caffeine to argue this, even if I was interested in doing so, which I'm actually not, but fine: there are some states that liberals can not win. Ever. Why? Voters rarely have a concrete grasp of the issues, or anything approaching a cogent ideology. When you have states like Mississippi where 98% of blacks vote Democratic and 93% of whites vote Republican that is not some small ideological/statistical coincidence. It is not a coincidence that there is generally a correlation between how religious a state is and how Republican it is.

                Lets take MS: Mississippi may not be officially segregated anymore but it is culturally segregated, there are still effectively two societies, a white "overclass" and a black "underclass" that do not attend the same churches, do not shop at the same stores, do not live in the same neighborhoods, often don't attend the same schools, ect., et. al. You're getting the picture. The signature problem here is that elections in MS are largely conducted along cultural/communal lines and while this does in turn evolve into an ideological discrepancy, the way to convert Mississippi would have to involve taking back the culture first and not the ideological discussion. The thing is, while the carryover of race makes this conveniently visible, it is the same everywhere; there are two separate cultures in America, a culture that produces Republicans and a culture that produces Democrats. John Edwards was right in that sense, there are two Americas, but they are not only separated by wealth, the single most dividing issue is actually probably religion, and I'm not talking about which religion, even within one denomination of a religion all that matters is who controls each church and who attends each church. the ideological agenda promoted by churches are singularly important in American politics.

                To think that Republicans have hijacked the conversation by consistently running ideological conservatives is completely laughable and naive.

                To the extent Republicans control states they control them by controlling the culture -- not the political dialogue. And while it's nice to think that we need only convince them and reason with them and bring about some godly liberal kingdom you're missing the point, which is my point. That's a feel-good security blanket we wrap ourselves in at out peril, it pretends that people vote based on there rational at least somewhat thought out political ideologies and world views like we political junkies do, and that we can only convince them these ideologies are wrong. That's not how it works. Most Republican states are small, and most modern Republican voter enclaves are rural, this is not coincidence, what fuels Republican strongholds are a sort of quintessential small-town style, most Republicans exist in an entirely different culture, which comprises there entire social circle, their spiritual fulfillment, their peers, and this culture is a Republican culture. Democrats have no access to this culture, and we must work to expand our cultural circles to increase our sphere of influence in red states, not this silly progressive lala land belief that if we ran progressives everywhere we would win !!1! (note: I am not talking about you here, I'm talking about the other guy. But there is nothing to "like" about what he's saying and you shouldn't encourage him). Once we do that it will become exponentially easier to elect liberals.

                And even if you could somehow embark on a successful multi-decade elaborate campaign to (somehow) take over the entire Republican cultural machine (every church, school, and small town social structure) it wouldn't be worth doing because it would inescapably change the Democratic party for the worse.

                So not only do I think this view is naive, it's also really insulting, because just the vast majority of voters don't vote the way they do because of some coherent ideology that we can then change their minds about, does not mean they don't have a very good and compelling reason for voting the way they do.

                (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:07:58 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I am not going to respond to all that (0+ / 0-)

                  faux outrage and that profusion of the obvious.  Really now.

                  I don't even feel like explaining what I said because it you so totally missed it and engaged in a 5 page rant about how Democrats should not argue progressive policy in the court of public opinion, as if these things do not correlate with the way people think and what sort of policy proposals people are wont to support. Part of this is expanding cultural circles as you said, and part of this also extends to having Democrats willing to actually take up debate on these issues at times, none of which I was relating to the NE-SEN race.

                  Again, you initially brought up Kerrey and Nelson people I did not even mention. And now you bring up all this stuff, (including an extensive bunch of junk on my own state!!). It's annoying.

                  So not only do I think this view is naive, it's also really insulting, because just the vast majority of voters don't vote the way they do because of some coherent ideology that we can then change their minds about, does not mean they don't have a very good and compelling reason for voting the way they do.
                  What's insulting is you piling a bunch of shit on me that was mostly directed at other, more liberal users. But it's also laughed to say the vast majority of people don't vote according to any coherent ideology. You second part makes as much sense as the first, "Does not mean they don't have a very good and compelling reason for voting the way they do." Hahaha. When most people don't even know the names of their representatives, and couldn't even pass a basic civics test, it is also fair to assume they don't actually have any knowledge of policy and that only a vague sense of ideology guides them. Which is why it's good for Democrats to promote a positive progressive ideology couched in common sense terms of melding government and private market for the greatest good of the country.

                  And I really didn't intend to get into this kind of crap.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                  by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:26:01 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  You need to step away from the keyboard (0+ / 0-)

                    and cool off a bit.

                    You commented directly in the middle of a thread about the Kerrey and the NE-Sen race, if you didn't mean your comments in relation to that race I humbly submit that that's misleading. I was responding to the claims of a trollish front pager who came in here to whine about that nasty DINO Kerrey, you responded by telling him "he has a good point" and repeated a bunch of ridiculous claims, most saliently "Democrats do not promote a cohesive progressive vision."

                    Balderdash.

                    I deconstructed those claims. If what I said was obvious it's only because it is so obviously wrong, and I only bothered to respond because you asked me to elaborate. And then when I do walk you through it, you get angry posting a long comment attacking me. I'm really not sure what to say.

                    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:12:12 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  No you didn't, (0+ / 0-)

                      you went on and on with your own crap, and condescended me.

                      If my comments were directed towards the NE-SEN race, they would have had some reference to the NE-SEN race, which they didn't. Disregarding the attitude you have for the other user, whether he is right or wrong, I told him he had a good point in that Republicans have more aggressively pursued and promoted their agenda for decades which has had the effect of consistently moving political discussion further and further rightward until a Heritage Foundation private market Health Care plan is now socialism.

                      You are attaching me to things other than what I said, and misreading what I did say, and I called you out on it. So you responded with a long, and again, very condescending, comment basically implying I'm an elitist who knows nothing, while shunting forward some ridiculous and elitist ideas of your own.

                      Walk me through it? That is the most vouchsafing, patronizing term I've had anyone use on me in a while. I'm not attacking you, I am calling you out for being rude and for giving me a bunch of grief. That long comment of yours was a discordant bit of jumbled points that took me a while to decipher, and some of them are pretty asinine in that you present them as fact when they are utterly laughable.

                      And Democrats have not, in the past, presented a coherent progressive vision. Part of this is that Democrats have simply not proved as organized and media-savvy as Republicans have been. This is also not something you can simply give me the debate equivalent of the middle finger and say balderdash like your own opinion on the matter is a sanctified fact.

                      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:42:10 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  SetsunaMudo, ArkDem14 (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14

                        I like your passion. You are both excellent Ds.

                        But I suggest that the time you're using on these posts might be better spent on some other endeavor.

                        To rephrase, if a troll had managed to foment this kind of discord, I'd suggest that he was successful.

                        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                        by tietack on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:30:26 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Truth be told (0+ / 0-)

                          Germany is at fault for making me even more of a whiny bitch than I usually am. The original poster though, (and I disagree with him too and think he is looking at things too simplistically), didn't seem like a troll, and honestly, if people had more patience and politeness, should have been debated with and given our more electorally minded viewpoints.

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 02:24:19 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                •  The part I don't understand... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...is where you say it's insulting to voters.  How is asking people to consider your views (as a candidate) vs. their current views, and to consider the possibility that they ought to think more like you, more insulting than telling them that you will honor their current views when honoring them would make you an apostate in your own party, and when not honoring them would make you a liar?

                  But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

                  by Rich in PA on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:21:12 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Ask him if he's for those things now. (0+ / 0-)

              I'm curious to hear his answer.

              But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

              by Rich in PA on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 05:18:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't matter (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA

      He's not winning.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:01:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What Republicans are right about (0+ / 0-)

      Republicans think Bob Kerrey is not going to win this election.  They are right about that.

    •  He's an underdog Dem running in a tough red state. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy, General Goose, askew

      What works in San Francisco or New York doesn't necessarily work in Middle America. Different constituents. We shouldn't be pushing people out of the party just because they have to say some things we may not agree with to get elected.

  •  Two PA notes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    1. While redistricting is controlled by a bipartisan commission, the chairman (and tiebreaking vote) was appointed by the Republican-led Supreme Court, and is a Republican senior judge.

    2. New ads in PA-AG hit the air yesterday, though neither is up on YouTube yet.  Kathleen Kane's new ad uses footage of the Clinton rally on Thursday and again stresses Prosecutor, Not A Politician, while Patrick Murphy's goes on the attack, hitting Kane for (a) trying to buy the office through her family's anti-union trucking company and (b) giving money to Republicans, including Tom Corbett.

  •  Pete Stark's bribery claim... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14

    ...so far is unsubstantiated, too.

  •  Pete Stark: the arrogance & entitlement of safe... (0+ / 0-)

    gerrymander'd seats on display for all to see.

  •  First Read (8+ / 0-)

    Generally very good but this is quite "stunning."

    "Consider this: Obama can get to 270 electoral votes (275 to be specific) by winning the following battleground states: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Virginia. Under the scenario of this Hispanic path (CO, NM, NV, and VA), Obama doesn’t need to win Florida, Ohio, Iowa, or New Hampshire. That’s right -- this is a viable path to 270 that does not include EITHER Florida or Ohio. It’s pretty stunning."

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

    I guess the best we can say is at least not everybody in the media is stuck in 2004.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:22:49 AM PDT

  •  That's a nice haul for Heitkamp, (6+ / 0-)

    comparable to some other Senate races, and $1 goes a lot farther in ND.

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:39:57 AM PDT

  •  Just heard Marty Moss-Coane on Radio Times about (0+ / 0-)

    Pa. ag race. Interesting, it seems Kane's family is anti-union (but she's trying to fudge her views). Also, terry madonna says there's so little known about either candidate he's not polling it. Odd, a former U.S. Representaive and a Lackawanna prosecutor.

    •  Madonna might be lying (0+ / 0-)

      Sure they're not huge names, but it's not like polls haven't been done in the past of unknowns in various races.  Methinks he's avoiding it to focus on something else, though I'm not sure what.  I can't really think of a more important Dem primary in PA.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:22:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pete Stark is a long term (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    embarrassment to California.  Looking forward to his retirement.

  •  Stark long rumored to have a drinking problem (0+ / 0-)

    Maybe before the next debate he should take a breathalyzer test.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site