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If nothing else, the pair of daily tracking polls on the presidential election between the incumbent, Barack Obama, and his challenger Mitt Romney have the same leader. Curiously, it is not the guy that has led in 90-plus percent of the non-tracking polls over the last two months, but what the hey.

A casual observer of politics, I assume, would expect that not only the outcome of the two tracking polls would be similar, but also that the trajectory of the two tracking polls would be somewhat in line. However, the electoral addicts that read this Wrap (and others like it) already know, that isn't always the case.

Having said that, it is a little smirkworthy that one the first day of legitimate comparison between the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers, they go in precisely the opposite direction from one another.

More on that in a bit. First, the raw numbers:

GOP (PRESIDENTIAL) PRIMARY POLLING:

NATIONAL (Pew): Romney 42, Santorum 21, Gingrich 13, Paul 13
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-43)

NATIONAL (Pew Research): Obama d. Romney (49-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

FLORIDA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-45)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
MD-06 (Garin-Hart-Yang for Delaney): John Delaney (D) 48, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) 39

TN-03--R (North Star Opinion Research for Mayfield): Scottie Mayfield 34, Rep. Chuck Fleischmann 25, Weston Wamp 25

WI-SD-13 (PPP for Daily Kos): Sen. Scott Fitzgerald (R) 54, Lori Compas (D) 40

WI-SD-21 (PPP for Daily Kos): Sen. Van Wangaard (R) 48, John Lehman (D) 46

WI-SD-23 (PPP for Daily Kos): Sen. Terry Moulton (R) 51, Kristin Dexter (D) 41

WI-SD-29 (PPP for Daily Kos): Jerry Petrowski (R) 51, Donna Seidel (D) 37

A few thoughts, as always, await you after the jump.

  • First, a moment of silent reflection: with the Pew poll today (which, we assume, included a primary trial heat because it started in the field before Santorum bowed out), we may well have seen our last poll of the Republican presidential primary sweepstakes. Unless ABC, NBC, or CBS want to throw one together. Y'know, for old time's sake...
  • The two tracking polls released today go on opposite vectors: the House of Ras sees a two-point bump in Barack Obama's direction (and a total of four points since the weekend), while the new Gallup daily tracking poll went three points to the good for Mitt Romney (from a nominal two-point edge on Monday to a more established five-point race today).
  • Notably, however, once again the daily trackers proved to be far more bullish on the Republican contender than the standard polls of the day. It is worth noting, however, that Pew's four-point margin was substantially less than their offering in March, which put the president up over Mitt Romney by double digits. I think, at this point, we have a wide enough array of new polls to suggest that Mitt Romney is getting a lift from the closure of the primary process. It is pretty tough to find a poll where Barack Obama does substantially better now than he did a month ago. There are no shortage of polls where the opposite is the case. The question now: is this an ephemeral bounce, because everyone (however reluctantly) embraces a winner? Or is this a legitimate consolidation of Republicans and conservative Independents around the presumptive nominee? Time will tell.
  • Downballot, it is "embattled incumbent" Tuesday, courtesy of two internal House polls. The Maryland poll comes as little surprise, and definitely has the ring of truth. Even Republicans conceded privately that redistricting had left longtime GOP veteran Rep. Roscoe Bartlett extraordinarily vulnerable, especially given the rust that has accumulated with repping a safe district for term-after-term. Tennessee, whose primary doesn't come around until late summer, is another matter entirely. While it was well known that freshman Rep. Chuck Fleischmann had two legitimate opponents in the form of dairy magnate Scottie Mayfield and young "entrepreneur" (and, more importantly, congressional progeny) Weston Wamp, an incumbent polling at 25 percent in his district is awfully shocking.
  • One place where the incumbents are embattled, but perhaps as not as some Democrats would like, is in Wisconsin, where the GOP presently has double-digit advantages in three of the four state senate districts hosting recall elections this June. The lone exception: veteran Sen. Van Wangaard, who is clinging to a two-point edge in his recall election. Remember, of course, that last summer's recalls left the GOP with a one-seat majority in the balance of power. Thus, any losses in June will bring a Democratic majority to that chamber.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (24+ / 0-)

    "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

    by Steve Singiser on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:30:06 PM PDT

  •  huh, I don't recall seeing that MD-06 poll. (4+ / 0-)

    That's encouraging.  Previous polling, IIRC, had old Roscoe looking more competitive.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:39:51 PM PDT

    •  It is an internal poll (4+ / 0-)

      but still, yeah, encouraging.

    •  Still feels weird that he won so strongly (3+ / 0-)

      But I guess it's Garagiola's fault for taking the primary for granted.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:12:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It was just released today (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      yellowdog

      and noted in an earlier digest.  Though it is an internal, earlier polling showing Bartlett doing better was also partially internal from his campaign (there was also a noninternal one showing a tie against a generic Dem as I recall, released three months ago when it looked like Garagiola was the sure Dem nominee.)

      Not sure what the exact breakdown of voters is, but I'm guessing that it's close to the district's actual distribution of about half the voters in Montgomery County (Dem), a third in the three western panhandle counties (Rep), and Frederick County with the last sixth (splitting the difference, usually but not always Dem-leaning).  Since the parts of the district are so distinct politically, the poll has to be weighted  well to be accurate.

      At first glance the result seems more or less accurate; recall that Delaney had the same polling firm in the primary which correctly called the result.  Delaney says that he has less name recognition than Bartlett (though precise numbers aren't publicly given), so he may have still more room for growth; I'd guess most of those who don't recognize Bartlett are newly added Montgomery County voters who he doesn't currently represent and who mostly won't vote Republican anyway.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 09:52:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think a bounce was to be expected (10+ / 0-)

    Every nominee gets a bounce when they wrap up the nomination. And that's what happened for Romney on Tuesday.

    Add to that, the major political headline last week was "Democratic strategist criticizes Romney's wife", and it was probably the best week for the Romney campaign in a long time.

    Whether it holds, as you note, remains to be seen.

    •  Bounce (7+ / 0-)

      Most importantly, Obama still leads 48-45 if you average the six most recent polls including the wacky trackers.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:49:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

        NBC, I think you noted, is coming out with their latest tomorrow.

        It's been like five weeks since a CBS poll(When they had Obama's approval at 41%). I'm betting we see a poll from them tomorrow or Thursday too.

        Assuming that with those polls, it still averages to a narrow Obama advantage, I'd say that's pretty decent at this point. Big thing to look for will be how the trend breaks in next month's poll; continued momentum for Romney or a peak in support.

  •  I think it's clear there's a GOP consolidation (12+ / 0-)

    around Romney, but that doesn't fully explain him taking the lead in the tracking polls.  Quite a few of the non-trackers, after all, had Obama over 50%, but Gallup and Ras both have him in the mid- to low-forties.

    I trust the political team around Obama to run a vigorous campaign, and I do think the current emphasis on stressing differences with the Republicans will play to Obama's advantage in the long run.  But, man, the Obama-hatred out there is going to make this a tough election cycle.

    We need to win this one.  I hate to think of the implications if we lose.

    Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
    ¡Boycott Arizona!

    by litho on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:46:28 PM PDT

  •  Pew on Young Voters. (13+ / 0-)

     61-33 in favor of Obama among 18-29 year-olds. Obama is narrowly winning white voters under 30, 48-46. These numbers are comparable to what he received in 2008. Young liberals like me will start creeping into older cohorts soon, and I hope we are replenished with more and younger liberals.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:19:54 PM PDT

  •  What is most imporatant is keeping the Senate (6+ / 0-)

    and taking back the House.  Having Obama in there with a fully GOP Congress is worthless.  Absolutely nothing progressive will get done and no liberal Supreme Court Justices will get confirmed if Ginsberg or Kennedy steps down.  These Republicans are not even the Republicans that used to exist.  

  •  I fully expect the President to win...yet... (5+ / 0-)

    having a campaign based on "I wasn't able to do anything because they wouldn't let me and if you re-elect me you can look forward to four more years of the same" does create a problem.

    Luckily for us, Romney is horrible. Not only is he soulless (willing to say anything to anybody at any time) but you know he's going to say something incredibly stupid during this campaign that will sink him.

    George Bush the elder looking at his watch will seem brilliant compared to whatever it is Romney will do.

    •  That isn't the campaign (17+ / 0-)

      The campaign is "We passed financial reform and equal pay for women, saved the auto industry, brought bin Laden to justice, ended the war in Iraq, avoided a depression...etc."

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:44:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Completely agree (7+ / 0-)

        I think it's unfortunate that many on the left, for whatever reason, make it seem like Obama hasnt/wont run on accomplishments when he has/will.

        The president will start doing rallies next month, and while he should mention those things you listed, I hope there is also a cogent, clear criticism of Romney in the stump speech as well.

        Obama is great at using humor to criticize his opponents, and I hope we see some of that.

        Because for the most part, he hasnt yet really specifically criticized Romney and a lot of the nonsense coming from his campaign.

        •  Of course he'll run on that... (0+ / 0-)

          But reality is, next to nothing has been accomplished since Republicans took back the House, and that's what we can expect for the next four years unless the Dems manage to take the House back.  

          If the SC overturns the crappy health care law then that "achievement" will be completely scrapped.  It won't be possible to replace it with anything with Republicans in control of the House.  

          If we don't retake Congress then the only reason to have Obama is simply because it blocks the GOP's agenda.  We ourselves are also completely blocked.  

  •  That Gallup poll is ridiculous... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, AZ RedWingsFan

    they just had a swing-state poll showing President Obama significantly ahead, but whatever, president's aren't picked by total votes in the country overall.

    “For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country.” President Obama 1/24/12

    by BarackStarObama on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:10:44 PM PDT

  •  Ron Brownstein over at (10+ / 0-)

    the National Journal got a peek at GALLUP internals. Found that Gallup only polling 22% minorities far less than the 25% in 2008 and the projected 28% in 2012. The claim is Gallup's sample matches the 2010 midterms (older and whiter) and not a Presidential run with more minorities. Makes sense to me

    http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/...

    Obama's defining political trait is the belief that conciliatory rhetoric is a ruthless strategy

    by AAMOM on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:57:50 PM PDT

  •  any chance of a newt surge? nt (0+ / 0-)
  •  According to National Journal, Gallup (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, Supavash, ItsSimpleSimon

    is using a model of 2010 where the voters are only 22% minority which is not what 2012 will be.  2012 is expected to be closer to 26% minorities as it was in 2008.  Most analysts believe that the minority vote in 2012 may even be higher (ie 28%), a reflection of increasing percentage of minorities in America.

    ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, CNN, Pew, etc use the 2008 electorate of 26% minority while Gallup and Rasmussen are using 2010 electorate of 22%.

    Thus polls that have a higher percentage of minorities will have a better result for President Obama.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:14:46 PM PDT

    •  Can you cite a link for this? (0+ / 0-)

      I don't doubt it, but would like to see it in writing. Obviously something is amiss with the disparate results.

      •  Here is the link (5+ / 0-)

        http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/...

        The surveys-from ABC and the Washington Post; the Pew Research Center; CNN/ORC; and the first Gallup tracking poll, diverge in their overall results. The first three polls show Obama leading by seven, four and nine percentage points respectively; the first Gallup track placed Romney up by two percentage points.

        But the Gallup track, which is conducted among registered voters, has a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012: only 22 percent of the Gallup survey was non-white, according to figures the organization provided to Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. That was close to the non-white share of the vote in 2010 (23 percent), but in 2008, minorities comprised 26 percent of all voters, according to exit polls; the Obama campaign, and other analysts, project the minority share of the vote will increase to 28 percent in 2012. In its survey, Pew, for instance, puts the non-white share at 25 percent.

        President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

        by Drdemocrat on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:44:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  noticed this a lot lately (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Supavash

    Obama is about tied nationally. But he keeps overperforming substantially in the swing states.  When was the last time a Democratic president won Florida by 5?

    •  Florida will be difficult for him. (0+ / 0-)

      I believe whatever model the pollsters are using doesn't work in Florida

      •  I don't anyone should count (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MHB, askew, Amber6541

        on Florida.  It's the Voter ID laws.  In my spreadsheets, I am never going to count on Florida as a win.

        They proved how good they are at keeping minorities from voting as far back as 2000.

        •  Yup (0+ / 0-)

          voter ID laws explain why Obama got absolutely crushed in Indiana. I think it was a 30-point loss, maybe even 40.

          ...oh wait, you mean Obama won Indiana? and voter ID laws aren't actually the end all and be all of elections? hm, well this is awkward.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 18, 2012 at 06:39:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Certainly you are aware (0+ / 0-)

            that new voter ID laws have been implemented in Florida since 2008, right?

            That is what I am referring to.  

            I assume you are referring to Indiana having the requirement for picture ID prior to the 2008 elections.  You do realize that Indiana has an 82% white vote?

            Florida is 58% white.  

            No comparison at all in the demographics.

            A little less sarcasm and a lot more critical thinking would go a long way, young one.

    •  FL usually has a few point R lean (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      so that poll is certainly out of line with the trackers. The composition of the sample didn't seem particularly generous to Obama and Romney had most of the Republicans in his column, so it's not so easy to dismiss. I don't think you can construct any model where Obama's ahead in most of the swing states and several points down nationally. Don't forget that while Romney may be running well in a lot of the traditionally Red states, Obama is also showing great strength in states like CA which is going to contribute a lot to his popular vote tally. If state and national polls are pointing in very different directions it's almost certain that some of the polls are just wrong, rather than that there's been some weird change in the distribution of votes across the country.

      •  Minority turnout in FL does not benefit OBAMA (0+ / 0-)

        to the degree that it does elsewhere.   A majority of Cuban Americans vote conservative.  That is why the entire state level is completely dominated by republicans, and they'll likely win the Senate race there, as well.

        Besides, anyone who thinks youth and minority turnout in 2012 will match or exceed 2008 is smoking crack.  2008 was a historic, and anomalous year.  The youth and minority communities have been crushed by this recession, and where they're excited, the new voter ID laws will curb their enthusiasm.

        I still think Obama wins, very close.  But, unless he totally discredits Romney through ads, and avoids a negative "event", this will be in doubt on election day.

        And,...that will be close enough to drive GOP turnout and hold the House.  I could easily see Obama re-elected with a fully GOP Congress.  Then, it's 1996 all over again, with conservative economics, including renewal of the Bush tax cuts, and tolerant social positions.  Which, I believe, is what a majority of Americans seem to prefer when they actually vote.

        If Obama is re-elected, there is no way Kennedy steps down from the SC.  But, I think Ginsberg may be done before the election of 2016.  Have you seen her lately?  She seems to be physically shrinking.  If her replacement is made by Romney, the GOP will have secured the Court for another generation.  As HCR will soon prove, that is the real issue for this election.

        •  The Cuban American vote is baked into (0+ / 0-)

          the Republican base already. It's not some magical new phenomenon that will change the political landscape of the state. It didn't stop Obama in 2008, it didn't stop Nelson in 2000 or 2006, and it never stopped Bob Graham or Lawton Chiles. If anything, what is changing is the growth in D-friendly demographics like Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans.

          Also, tolerant social positions in 1996, the year DOMA was passed, wut?

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Wed Apr 18, 2012 at 06:42:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Clinton won it by that margin in '96 (0+ / 0-)

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Wed Apr 18, 2012 at 03:02:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CNN Just Released A Likeability Poll...... (9+ / 0-)

    Romney lost to Obama on every single count....all 15 qualities.

    Obama is considered more in touch w/ women by 55/27%

    Voters think Obama will win in November by 61/35%

    Obama beats Romney on likeability by 56/27%

    Voters think Obama stands by his beliefs 50/29% over Mitt

    Obama shares voters values over Romney by 49/37%

    By 52/36%, voters think Obama is NOT in over his head

    That is Romney's biggest claim:  Obama is in over his head.

    Of course, when Mitt was Governor of Massachusetts was 8th in job  creation.  When Mitt left office, Massachusetts was 47th in job creation.

    Mitt's mean to dogs & he doesn't know how to get jobs.          

  •  I'm surprised it's even close, in the polls. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    I don't like to spend long talking about the statistics. I'm more for the pragmatic view. Except, I don't know how to read this one.

    Do people seriously think Romney is a viable candidate? Clearly, a substantial percentage of people do. That, then, is beyond my conditional ken. Yet there it is, in the polling data. It must beg a more objective and less naive view.

    Granted I've seen this happen before. I thought, Sen. Kerry was the only reasonable candidate, and then Dubyah was elected instead.

    I think there's a lot of high-intensity emotion wrapped up around this electoral cycle. I would like to think that a winning point of view can be developed, though, such that does not play into all that absurd drama.

    If there is any strategy to the GOP's side, in this race, perhaps I must leave it to more practiced minds to analyze it. I think only that they're trying to push emotional buttons, enough that they win the race.

    If that is the strategy, I don't suppose it would be hard to counteract. I don't suppose it can be counteracted by wishful thinking, though.

    Please, oh democratic world, not another Kerry v Dubyah.

    •  Depends what you mean with viable. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      indie17, LordMike

      Somewhat competitive, yes, Romney is that. But a pound of smelly goat's cheese would get 40% of the vote if it was on the ticket with an R behind its name, so that does't say much.

      Having a real chance to win? No way as long as the state polls don't show any movement in his direction, and they don't. Latest Rasmussen poll in North Carolina had Obama doing about 2% better than in 2008 for example.

      Boehner (n) North German: variant of Böhnhaas - someone who does a job they don't have the qualifications for and who typically delivers shoddy work

      by Calouste on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:50:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know if I can be so sure (0+ / 0-)

        This is one election that I don't want to be complacent about, myself. I think we've had enough Republican Dominionism for a few years.  I'm sure that hope can go a long way, but the details are what concern me, on this. If the Romney camp simply winds up persuading more voters simply to cast a vote for Romney, then the election would go to Romney.

        So, to say anything positive about it, here's to developing a popularly persuasive platform for President Obama's reelection.

    •  Don't underestimate hatred of Obama in South (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jes2, MHB, DaDA Bum

      Here in the South people will probably vote for anyone to get President Obama out of office.  He is hated by a segment of the electorate.  

    •  Romney is a very viable candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MHB

      He was the only one in the Republican race.  Plus, his primary pandering notwithstanding, he's the most moderate Republican nominee since Bush I, and maybe since Ford.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Wed Apr 18, 2012 at 03:06:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True - and the down side... (0+ / 0-)

        If I may render my own opinions in an interpretive light: I don't like the thought of there being an Evil Romney,  an alter-ego pitched for dominionism and counterdemocratic agendas. I don't think we need any more of that kind of leadership in the presidential office, honestly.

  •  It seems odd to me that Mitt Romney, who only gets (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    in the forties against his own party, can find himself in the lead against a president who has a significant lead in the Positive vs Negative matchup over Mitt, and yet Mitt can somehow lead in the national matchup.

    Interesting to say the least.

    Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

    by Ohiodem1 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:28:41 PM PDT

  •  Wisc news is sad-What does it take to oust Repugs? (5+ / 0-)

    I realize that Wisconsin is a deeply divided state, but nevertheless, it is so disheartening to see that after all the Koch Addict puppets have done to the state's economy, schools and environment that SO many folks are willing to keep Walker and his cabal in office.  I have witnessed this sad fact with my own eyes over and over again as I collected signatures for the Recall and then volunteered in two state senatorial recall elections this summer.  Tragically, when knocking on the doors of way too many homes to count while canvassing in the senate races, it seemed that more folks supported Walker and the Repugs than the Dems.  It really is mind-numbing.

    I know folks here get mad when someone like me says this--but it seems that the Repugs have really won the culture wars that Grover Norquist, Cheney and their ilk started over 30 years ago.  In other words, voters keep voting for the Repug "brand" no matter how deeply the party itself goes against their own self-interests.  Thirty years ago I never would have believed that Wisconsin--of all places--could be a paradise for right-wingnuts who govern only for the rich--and that voters would keep putting these guys back into office.....  But this is happening before our eyes here and elsewhere.  Again, I realize that not all voters in Wisconsin fall into this category, but far too many do fall for all the Repug trickery about guns and abortion and believe all of the Repug venom about welfare and that people are poor because it is their own fault.

    I hope more than anything that I am wrong, and that Snotty does lose the Recall election, but the chances of this happening seem to be very slim.  Again, as someone on the cusp of turning 60, I never would have thought 35 years ago that our country would revert back to the days of Jim Crow, or to a Pre-1930 mentality, as we move into the 21st Century.

    •  Well, PPP has stated that in their WI polling... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      exterris, Midwesterners

      ....about 10% of Wisconsin voters simply will not vote for a recall (except under extreme circumstances) even if they hate the incumbent.  Considering that bias, we are doing rather well, but the headwinds were always against us.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 11:11:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This does stack the odds against us (0+ / 0-)

        I really had hoped after last summer's recall elections that the Dems in Wisconsin would NOT go ahead with trying to recall Walker.  To me, it was too much of a gamble--and the bets were 50-50 at best, even without the ten percent who--as you said--will not vote in a recall even when they "hate the incumbent."   I deeply feared seven or eight months ago that should the Democrats lose the Recall of Walker, that the repercussions would be profound for a long, long time to come--around the country.  Don't worry, I am going to work my tailbone off  again volunteering once the Dem opponent is selected, with the little time that we have left.  But for me, the bottom-line is that I do not think that the Walker Recall was worth the risk.  And I say this because so many folks have indeed--albeit tragically--totally bought into the Repugnican "brand" despite it destroying the very fabric of their lives right before their eyes!

      •  I'm expecting Dems to lose all of the Senate seats (0+ / 0-)

        and I think Walker will win, as well.  He is at 50% in virtually all polls.  After being the most vilified politician since GWB, how can he still be at 50%?  It's because 50% support exactly what he is doing to unions and public employees.  That support has solidified, and I'll be surprised if any amount of advertising (which will be more than offset by negative ads directed at his opponent) will move it.

        The GOP leads by one vote in the Senate, right?  I guess it's possible that Dems take one Senate seat and paralyze Walkers agenda.  But, the damage is done.  Status quo is not a good outcome for Dems or the unions.

        Personally, I have real problem with recalls.  I didn't like the Gray Davis recall.  In the end, I could live with it, since I thought he would have never been re-elected in the first place, without using mischievous tactics (running ads to influence the GOP primary).  But, remember, what comes around, goes around.  If Dems can set this precedent in WI, why couldn't the GOP use this tactic in other states when they don't like legislation passed by a Dem government?  Can you imagine having recalls EVERY summer, somewhere?  Recalls and direct Democracy are not what the founding fathers had in mind.

  •  Observation (0+ / 0-)

    I am observing this election campaign closely. Because i m a journalist.

  •  CBS this morning (0+ / 0-)

    New CBS poll, 46-46

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