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Leading Off:

CA-15: The drumbeat against Rep. Pete Stark keeps getting louder. Now the San Francisco Chronicle gets into the act, with a piece recapping all of Stark's recent madness, including news about the latest development. In response to Stark's utterly unsubstantiated charge that his Democratic primary opponent, Dublin city councilor Eric Swalwell, took bribes from developers, the Tri-Valley Democratic Club passed a resolution demanding that Stark either produce evidence to support his outrageous claims or retract them entirely. (Swalwell's campaign says the club is the largest in the district.)

Well, after going utterly silent for days, on Wednesday afternoon, Stark finally offered a bullshit apology, claiming he "misspoke." In fact, all Stark really did was repeat his smears. Get a load of the rest of his statement:

"Eric Swalwell has been a consistent vote on the Dublin City Council and on the Planning Commission supporting projects by developers who have been raided by the FBI, have pleaded guilty to destroying natural habitats, and has taken numerous contributions to fund his campaign which he consistently utilizes with negative attacks."
What an asshole. Swalwell for his part isn't buying it, saying he's hire an attorney to look into a defamation case against Stark. It's funny: Stark says he still has "concerns about my opponent's behavior." More like every Democrat in the district or watching this race has concerns about Stark's behavior. I have a feeling it's going to get a lot worse for the incumbent before it gets better—if it ever does.

Race Ratings:

FL-Sen: PPP's new poll of the Florida Senate race once again finds Dem Sen. Bill Nelson leading GOP Rep. Connie Mack by double digits, with Nelson's 47-37 edge little changed from his 46-35 advantage last November. These numbers, combined with other recent developments—Mack's desultory campaigning, his less-than-stellar fundraising, and Republican unhappiness sufficient to prompt state CFO Jeff Atwater into contemplating a last-minute entry—suggest that Nelson has a clear enough edge to prompt us to change our rating on this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic. You can also click through the first link for the full details on PPP's new survey, plus our analysis.


HI-Sen: The trickle of 1Q fundraising numbers has all but stopped, but here's one last straggler: ex-Rep. Ed Case, who took in a seriously meager $138K, compared to over $1 mil for his Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Mazie Hirono. Some of you were asking the other day whether anyone had ever hit the entire loser-speak trifecta in a single press release. I don't know if that's ever happened, but Case did an impressive job in this text message to the Honolulu Star Advertiser, scoring two out of three:

"We were never going to win the money race because we're not hooked into the D.C. special interest money. This election isn't about who can raise the most money; that's the problem to start with. It's about who can fix D.C. and provide leadership to overcome our challenges."
He complains about DC insiders and says the race isn't about how much money he can raise, all in the span of couple of tweets worth of characters. If only a survey were involved, he could have also said the only poll that matters is the one on election day. But I'm sure he's at least thinking it.

IN-Sen (PDF): Well, at long last, here it is: After coming tantalizingly close on many occasions, Treasurer Richard Mourdock finally leads Sen. Dick Lugar in a poll of the Republican primary. Okay, it's a Mourdock internal (from McLaughlin & Associates), and it's by just one point, 42-41. But that's a big improvement from Mourdock's January survey, where he trailed 48-36. The poll also says that Mourdock's favorables went from 35-10 to 46-22 in that time, while Lugar's dropped from 57-34 to 47-39. Mourdock now has to find a way to hang on until the primary, which is May 8.

While we're on the topic, The Hotline's Kevin Brennan makes a very good point about why Lugar looks like he's in so much trouble, citing yet another new wound the flailing senator has inflicted on himself. With the GOP primary so clearly on the line, what's Lugar up to? Why, just penning an op-ed in the Washington Times "criticizing the Obama administration's handling of the sale of weapons to friendly foreign governments." As Brennan says, both the topic (irrelevant to the election) and the publication (situated rather far from Indiana) are "downright odd" indeed.

So you can understand why they're now in desperation mode over at the Home for Indiana Establishment Republicans. Politico reports that Gov. Mitch Daniels and Arizona Sen. John McCain have cut ads on behalf of Dick Lugar which are "likely to air in the closing weeks." (The ads themselves are not yet publicly availble.) When your biggest problem is shoring up your right flank, though, is John McCain really the guy you want? He may have survived a primary challenge from the right last cycle (thanks to facing a truly moronic opponent), but generally speaking, he's the sort of guy movement conservatives love to mistrust. Is Lugar trying to chivvy the last few country club Republicans into turning out on his behalf? Good luck.

ME-Sen: Cynthia Dill (D): $25K raised in first quarter.

OH-Sen: Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel is launching his first TV ad, a two-week buy for a hefty $580K. The ad tries to emphasize Mandel's military service and features... well, it features his boots. You can watch it at the link or below:

P.S. I'm reminded of Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who wore his son's old combat boots during his successful 2006 campaign, as a tribute to him and "all the people sent into harm’s way." The striking photo at the link illustrates Webb's message in a way that I think Mandel's ad at best only aspires to.

PA-Sen: Ex-Plumcreek Twp. Supervisor (and rich guy) Tom Smith seems to be well on track to win the GOP primary, if the nonstop drumbeat of internal polls from his camp is any indication. In his newest survey from McLaughlin & Associates, he's at 35, with 16 for Sam Rohrer, and 10 for establishment fave Steve Welch. We have trendlines from his previous poll, released just a week ago, showing Smith gaining: He led Rohrer 29-14 in the prior sample.

There are also two new TV spots out in the primary, one of which is from Smith's campaign, hitting back at Steve Welch's ad that made hay of Smith's previous Democratic past. Smith's claim seems to be that, by voting for Barack Obama in the 2008 Dem primary, Welch was technically an even bigger Democrat than Smith. The other is an anti-Smith ad, still working the used-to-be-a-Dem meme; it's from a heretofore unknown super PAC with the Colbertesque name of Freedom Fund for America's Future, although observers think the PAC is linked to Welch's media consultants. (David Jarman)

UT-Sen, UT-Gov: Two more polls came out Wednesday, attempting to poll the very small slice of the Utah population who will be participating as Republican convention delegates this Saturday. (I think we're getting to the point where nearly everyone who'll be a delegate must have been called for one of the four polls that have been released.) Both polls are consistent with the ones that came before them, though, in showing that Orrin Hatch is—far from getting Bob Bennett-ized—right on the cusp of clenching the nomination outright at convention. Failing that, he should still easily make the primary, which he'd be likely to survive given that the convention represents the hardest-core of the right.

One is from local pollster Dan Jones & Associates, on behalf of the Utah Foundation. They find Hatch at 61% (over the 60% threshold to clinch the nod), with state Sen. Dan Liljenquist at 20%. (They also find the Dem Senate field likely to go to primary, with Pete Ashdown at 39% and Scott Howell at 31%.) We actually have trendlines on that, as Jones did a previous internal poll for the Hatch campaign several weeks ago, which put Hatch at 62% and Liljenquist at 16%.

The Jones poll also looks at the gubernatorial and congressional conventions; most notably, they find incumbent Gov. Gary Herbert, also facing a challenge from several even more conservative opponents, right on the cusp of re-nomination as well. Herbert's at 61%, with his nearest competitor, ex-state Rep. Morgan Philpot, at 12%. On the House front, incumbents Rob Bishop and Jason Chaffetz will easily avoid primaries; in UT-02, the GOPers likeliest to end up in a primary are Chris Stewart (34%) and David Clark (21%). In UT-04, Saratoga Springs mayor Mia Love and state Rep. Carl Wimmer are out front, at 38% and 25% respectively—though, encouragingly, Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson gets the general election support of 23% of the poll's Republican participants.

Finally, there's also a poll from Republican pollster Wilson Research, on behalf of the Hatch campaign (odd, since the other Hatch internal was taken by Jones). Very similarly, they find Hatch at 63%, with Liljenquist at 21%. (David Jarman)


FL-Gov: Democrats have their first official candidate looking to unseat first-term Gov. Rick Scott in 2014: state Sen. Nan Rich. Rich first made her interest publicly known last September, and she's definitely getting an early start. One reason for her to jump in so soon: She's term-limited and therefore can't seek re-election to the state Senate this year.

TX-Gov: It's no surprise, given the insane level of fundraising he's been doing ($12 mil in the bank at last count), but state AG Greg Abbott has finally confirmed he's looking at a possible gubernatorial bid in 2014. The real question is whether Gov. Rick Perry will run for a fourth full term—something he's said he's considering—and if so, whether Abbott will seek to challenge him in the Republican primary regardless. Perry handily survived what was expected to be a serious effort to deny him renomination in 2010, but in the wake of his disastrous presidential bid, he could be a lot more vulnerable this time.

WI-Gov: Politico reports that former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk is outgunning Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett on the airwaves, with some $758K spent on her behalf vs. $313K for her Democratic primary opponent. But the lion's share of the pro-Falk money—some $534K—has come from a third-party organization sponsored by labor unions called Wisconsin for Falk. I wonder if Barrett's hoping to win the primary by spending as little as possible, husbanding his resources for the one-month sprint against Gov. Scott Walker that will follow.


AZ-08: On Tuesday night, as expected, 2010 nominee Jesse Kelly won the Republican nod once more, with a 36-25 victory over former Air Force combat pilot Martha McSally. State Sen. Frank Antenori took 22% and sports broadcaster Dave Sitton brought up the caboose with 17%. Kelly will now take on former Gabby Giffords staffer Ron Barber in the special election to fill Giffords' seat on June 12.

There will also be a regular election later this year, held in the renumbered (and slightly bluer) AZ-02. The filing deadline for that contest is May 30, so candidates hoping for a second bite at the apple can't wait on the outcome of the special to decide. That's why McSally has already declared she'll run in the November election, though of course there will be another primary first, on Aug. 28. If Kelly wins the special, McSally might well back down, but if he loses, then I think there's a good chance the GOP establishment will turn to her as an alternative for the fall, rather than risk a third shot with Kelly. (Antenori, meanwhile, sounds unlikely to run again, while no word as yet from Sitton.)

Meanwhile, Barber is out with his first ad for the June special election, mostly focusing on jobs and the need to "rebuild the middle class." He also hits a couple of right-wing notes, talking about "how government can get in the way" of job creation and that it's important "to secure the border." Annoying, but pretty predictable for a race in a red-tilting seat like this. The Hill reports that the buy is for only $40K, though. You can watch at the link or below:

FL-22 (PDF): Former West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel has an internal out of the Democratic primary, where she faces Broward County Commissioner Kristin Jacobs, a late entrant into the race. The survey, from Anzalone Liszt, shows Frankel with a commanding 46-16 lead. Frankel's consistently been an extremely strong fundraiser, and she doubled up Jacobs last quarter, $400K to $200K, giving her a huge $1.3 mil to $190K cash edge. Frankel's dual lead in polling and money will be hard for Jacobs to overcome, though Florida has a relatively late primary (Aug. 14), so she still has some time.

FL-26: So it looks like ethically embattled GOP freshman David Rivera will skate, at least regarding the state of Florida's investigation into his shady dealings:

U.S. Rep. David Rivera will not face criminal charges following an 18-month investigation of his personal and campaign finances by the Miami-Dade State Attorney's Office and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, according to sources close to the probe.

Although records released late Monday show FDLE last year suspected Rivera of "possible criminal and ethical violations," ranging from campaign fraud to falsifying financial disclosure forms, prosecutors have concluded that they cannot charge the Miami congressman with any crimes because of ambiguities in the state's campaign finance laws and a shortened statute of limitations that barred prosecution for expenses more than two years old.

However, the Miami Herald notes that Rivera "still remains under investigation by the FBI and the IRS over a $510,000 payment from a dog track to a company managed by Rivera's mother and godmother."

IL-13: If you'd like to see a list of Republicans who've expressed interesting in replacing GOP Rep. Tim Johnson on the November ballot, I encourage you to click through the link. Since a candidate will get tapped by local officials rather than via a primary, though, I'm not going to run through all the names here.

NY-25: As you may know, veteran Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter fell and broke her leg earlier this month. The injury was described as a "very severe fracture of the femur" which required the bone to be set with plates and screws. Needless to say, at age 82, this can be a very debilitating injury, though Slaughter said at a recent press conference that she expects to be back in DC by early May. (A full recovery will take three months.) She also dismissed any retirement rumors, saying that her health is otherwise "fine."

PA-12: Has Mark Critz closed the gap? We don't have proper trendlines, but a last-minute poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and WPXI-TV shows the race closer than any prior survey has. They find Jason Altmire leading Critz 43-39 in the Democratic primary, which is less than a week away. Altmire's last internal poll had him up 55-31, but that was from a month ago, before the paid media war began in earnest.

Meanwhile, Altmire has a new ad out in which he directly responds to charges by Critz, speaking directly to camera. (Interestingly, he hasn't uploaded it to his own YouTube page.) In a recent spot of his own, Critz accused Altmire of putting "Medicare at risk" by voting for "the Republican balanced budget amendment." Altmire is reduced to saying, "nuh uh, I did it to protect Medicare." Once again, though, Altmire is placing himself in opposition to the vast majority Democrats, who voted overwhelmingly against the BBA, so there's a bit of a credibility problem with this kind of defense. You can watch at the link or below:

PA-17: The Campaign for Primary Accountability is out with a new ad going after Dem Rep. Tim Holden, but it's pretty similar to their last effort, accusing him of voting "with George Bush to cut taxes for the top 1%." It also makes a terrible pun based on his last name. You can watch it at the link.

Grab Bag:

Dark Money: Crossroads GPS, the non-profit arm of the superest of all the Super PACs, American Crossroads, publicly released their tax filings for the years 2010 and 2011, and that provides some interesting insight into what it is they do. Maybe most significantly, they're truly behaving like a crossroads, refunneling much of their money ($17 million worth) back to various other conservative groups that spend money on elections, like the 60+ Association (the bizarro-world AARP), Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform, and the National Federation of Independent Business. That kind of re-gifting may be part of an overall legal strategy, though; they're a 501(c)(4) and thus can't have political spending as their primary purpose. So, by giving away much of their money, they can claim they only spend less than one-quarter of their money on "political campaign and lobbying activities," helping them keep from running afoul of the IRS.

And if you're wondering where their money comes from, well, keep wondering. Because of 501(c)(4) status, their donors remain anonymous; what's remarkable is how few of them there are. In their first 19 months of operations, they raised $77 million from fewer than 100 donations. Two dozen donors contributed $1 million, while two donors contributed $10 million apiece. (David Jarman)

DCCC: In case you hadn't seen it yet, Politico is reporting that the DCCC has reserved $32 million in ad time for this November's elections. (Confusingly, the piece repeatedly refers to it as a "buy," but it sounds like it is indeed just a reservation, much as we saw when the NRSC did the same thing for $25 mil last week.) The full list of specific reservations—which potentially covers as many as 36 House districts, most of them Republican-held—can be seen here.

House: Democracy Corps (via Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) regularly polls the most competitive "battleground" House districts, and while they can't give significant results for each and every district, what they find cumulatively looks fairly good. (You can find a list of the 56 districts at the link, which for downballot race junkies is worth checking out even if you can't put much stock in the individual race results due to small sample sizes.) They find Democratic incumbents, taken together, hitting 50% in generic-opponent head-to-heads; Republican incumbents lead generic D opponents 49-43 (which is down from a 14-point margin in September). They also find that messaging that clearly explains the Ryan budget is a potent weapon for Dems, leading to a 9-point swing in the Dem direction on the "informed ballot" (i.e. after hearing both side's messaging about it). (David Jarman)

New York: I've now managed to get an official copy of all federal campaign filings for congressional seats contained wholly within New York City, for those of you who are interested.

Polltopia: Please vote for New Mexico in PPP's "where should we poll" poll.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Q national poll: Obama by 4 (7+ / 0-)

    46-42.  2500 registered voters.  Dems up 40-39 in the generic.

    Actually up by 2 points since Q's February national poll.  Same with job approval, which is not at 47%.  Obama trailing 52-36 among whites, leads 64-24 among Latinos.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 05:07:22 AM PDT

  •  I'm glad Swalwell has hired an attorney (7+ / 0-)

    And I hope he follows through and sues Pete Stark.  This is absolutely outrageous behavior.  It is beneath a member of Congress (and that's a pretty low bar to sink beneath!).  

    We all understand that debates and campaign ads get negative.  The truth gets stretched and insults get thrown around.  But that is very different from coming up with a particular charge of criminal behavior without any evidence to back it up.

  •  Is there any evidence that Pete Stark's words (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sybil Liberty

    have damaged him in the polls?  It's not as if he hasn't been colorful for years.

    Ancora Impara--Michelangelo

    by aravir on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 05:39:42 AM PDT

    •  thing is...his district has changed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, stevenaxelrod

      and the irascible Stark is talking to a different constituency now, they may not be familiar with his long and outstanding progressive record.

      "Show up. Pay attention. Tell the truth. And don't be attached to the results." -- Angeles Arrien

      by Sybil Liberty on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 08:31:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Stark is a fun character (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sybil Liberty, stevenaxelrod

        I do like him.  But he often misbehaves and does outrageous things.  Like the time he nearly started a fight in a House Committee and the police had to be called in.  

        The new districts ironically are better for the Democratic Party than the old ones but bad for incumbents as so many districts have been dramatically redrawn.  

        Even Henry Waxman's District has seen some dramatic changes in his District with a number of familiar old parts being drawn out (West Hollywood, Century City, Cheviot Hills, Rancho Park, Westwood, Pico-Robertson, Beverlywood, and Sunset Hills) and a whole bunch of the South Bay being drawn in (the Palos Verdes Peninsula, the Beach Cities, Torrance, Venice, Marina Del Rey).  The new District he's running in is still substantially similar to his old District but it's definitely different than the old one.  It does make him more vulnerable (though he appears to be taking his reelection seriously and hasn't drawn any top-tier challengers).  

        Check out my new blog:

        by SoCalLiberal on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 10:03:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  He's also been a thorn in the side of progressives (0+ / 0-)

      and an overturned truck on the road to reform.  

      As Dan Savage would say, DTMFA!

      Shirley Chisholm was right. Our Republic is in deep trouble.

      by Big River Bandido on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 09:56:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You meant to say "thorn in the side of the GOP" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod, Sybil Liberty

        Pete Stark is as progressive as it gets.  Yeesh, I'm progressive and he votes to the left of me.
        He's also been my congresscritter since I moved to California 36 years ago.  Unfortunately, with the newly drawn district lines, I've lost him as my rep. and I'm not happy about that.
        Pete Stark is also the only admitted atheist in Congress.  Top that for guts!
        Pete gets criticized for the fact that he does not suffer a fool.  Ya gotta admit, that's a rarity in Washington, DC.

        To stand in silence when they should be protesting makes cowards out of men. -Abraham Lincoln

        by Eyesbright on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 11:51:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Why New Mexico again? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'd think Missouri a much more interesting place to poll, get new Presidential toplines there too. Plus a super competitive senate race, and see how Nixon is doing these days.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 05:44:27 AM PDT

    •  What about Iowa? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, aamail6, gabjoh, itskevin

      Must be the most underpolled swing state.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:10:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Starting To Look Like I'll Be Waiting Until..... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Paleo, itskevin

      ....November 4 before somebody polls Iowa again...and those will be exit polls.

      •  Won't that be on November 6? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
      •  I'd only want to waste a PPP poll on Iowa (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, HoosierD42

        if they also polled the three competitive House races.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:14:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Three? (0+ / 0-)

          You think either Braley or Loebsack are endangered?

          Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

          by R30A on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:20:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Considering Braley's Margin in 2010..... (0+ / 0-)

            ...and the fact that his new district is slightly less than the one he won 51-49 last time, I think there's some cause for concern.

            •  Um no? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Braley got an even more Democratic district. Loebsack's district was made several points more Republican and had one of the strongest Democratic counties removed and added to Braley's while it gained a lot more rural territory. Loebsack is the one in a competitive race right now, but it's on the second tier in a year like this.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

              by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:35:02 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well..... (0+ / 0-)

                With Loebsack's district anchored by Johnson County, it's hard to see him losing, particularly in a Presidential year.  You're correct that Loebsack's district got moved more towards Republican than Braley's, but Loebsack also started out with a bigger advantage in 2010 than Braley did.  The SuperPACs went for the jugular with Braley in 2010, and having come so close last time, it's easy to see them doing the same thing again.

        •  The Logic is Delusional..... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Geekesque, askew

          We have one eyebrow-raising mainstream poll out of Iowa in the last few months.  We have mountains of polls out of just about every other battleground state that mostly show results in line with expectations.  Should Obama just forfeit Iowa as a battleground state because the disinterest in ever finding out where it stands suggests that's the likely outcome.

        •  Curious (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          I remember people on here used to speculate on SSP about the cost of polls, but what does a PPP poll cost?  

          If you wanted to do a poll similar to the kinds they normally do in a state (normal sample size, standard Pres/Guv/Sen questions and demographics and such), do we know what that costs?

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:36:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's a few thousand (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Cost varies by how big a sample you want and the length of poll, among other things, but a good robopoll is a few thousand.  A good live call poll is easily more than're paying for labor.

            A campaign might spend $10K on a good comprehensive live call poll.  I think PPP does a lot of downballot business because they are reputable and economical for downballot candidates who can't raise the money of a statewide or federal candidate.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:47:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  how about Montana? (0+ / 0-)

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:15:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rasmussen has a new MO Sen poll (0+ / 0-)

      came out today

      The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

      by not2plato on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:41:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Question (0+ / 0-)

    Have these kinds of "informed ballot" or "biography" polls ever been much of a leading indicator of anything?  Personally, I've always been pretty skeptical of them (I can't think of too many times they've given an answer the pollster didn't want) but I could be wrong.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 05:49:38 AM PDT

  •  Early voting in NC starts today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, SaoMagnifico

    Fingers crossed for Amendment One to go down in flames.

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:14:10 AM PDT

  •  Jobless claims 386k (10+ / 0-)

    Disappointing number no doubt. But before everyone gets too worried remember that this is in line with many analysts expectation that unseasonably warm winter would push forward hiring causing employment figures to look artificially strong in Dec-Feb and artificially weak in March-April. Things should return to normal in the next few weeks with employment figures being closer to the actual reality that's existed over the last several months (somewhere between the figures over the winter and the figures now).

    Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, says claims will likely keep rising in the latest weekly report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

    Last week he accurately predicted volatile seasonal trends due to the Easter holiday would prompt claims to rise. Sure enough, the figure came in at 380,000, well above most economists’ expectations.

    This week he thinks claims could rise to the mid-390,000 level due to seasonal ramifications from the earlier-than-usual Easter holiday. This latest reading will measure the week after Easter, which Shepherdson said has a history of being volatile.

    That said, Mr. Shepherdson says the recent claims data should be interpreted with skepticism. He remains optimistic that the recent rise in claims is a seasonal blip as opposed to the beginning of another downturn in the labor market.

    “If we’re right, the seasonal story should reverse over the next couple of weeks, pushing the headline claims number back down to about 350,000 to 360,000, the prior trend,” he says. “We are not worried that the underlying position has taken a turn for the worse, though we do think the drop in claims through the fall and winter was unsustainably rapid; a period of consolidation is due.”

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:14:35 AM PDT

  •  Balderas and Case both had fundraising (0+ / 0-)

    dry up this quarter. Would suggest that both has slipped pretty far behind.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:15:17 AM PDT

  •  PA-AG: Bombshell (4+ / 0-)

    Kathleen Kane, at the Clinton rally:

    Kane, who described herself as “energized, humbled, honored and nervous,” said, “I’ve given thousands of closing arguments but have never spoken in front of a president of the United States.”
    Patriot-News today:
    Kane claims she has prosecuted more than 3,000 cases. But to be clear, that doesn’t mean she tried that many.

    In fact, she said that in her 12 years in the DA’s office, she tried about two dozen cases...

    •  I think bombshell might be overselling it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, rdw72777, gabjoh

      considering it's pretty clearly meant to be hyperbole. That being said, I would still be shocked if she won in light of Murphy's previously discussed advantages in this race.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:20:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That 3,000 figures was always silly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, gabjoh

      But since live in a world where "Law & Order", "Law & Order SVU", Law & Order CI" are on 24 hours d ay and get things done in an hour or 2, maybe people believed the 3,000 number was actual trials.

      That said, it'd be funny if this became a big issue in the media.  I'm looking forward to next Wednesday when Murphy wins by double-digits and we can make fun of the Philly newspapers whose endorsement will have proved meaningless.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:40:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just read that whole article (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Adam B, Armando

      It was actually quite well-written and painted each in such a positive light, even the slightly negative stuff.

      However, I read this quote and wondered why Murphy hadn't done more ads in this vein:

      “I think that is a pretty telling sign that they want to run that office the same way it’s been running for 30 years,” Murphy said. “I have a different vision. A more aggressive outlook on what that office can do to make a real difference in people’s lives.”
      Maybe he's saving it for the GE, but I think this is the type of thing that can appeal to a broad group of people.  White suburbanites who think Corbett botched Sandusky, Philadelphians who feel the office isn't active enough, women who want to stop Corbett's "close your eyes" ultrasound bill, etc.  

      It could really play well in some ads and could be applied to a lot of different issues.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:51:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's the kind of approach that (0+ / 0-)

        won John Kroger the AG office in Oregon, upsetting an establishment Dem in the primary.

        Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

        by James Allen on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:55:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well the environment is perfect (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B

          For such a campaign.  Especially with a Dem advantage in November with Obama very likely to carry the state.  

          I think given that Freed isn't from Western PA and Murphy is military that Murphy will out-poll Obama in Western PA.  I think Murphy can do enough in SEPA to win this (he won't do as well in Philly as Obama, obviously), and actually think he'll do so pretty easily.  

          Then again, I've been pretty high on him from the beginning so maybe I'm over-stating.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:09:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Was a good article (0+ / 0-)

        Reporter may be worht keeping an eye on.

        One of the better political reporting stories Ive read in some time.

        •  I want 30 seconds (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B

          Of Murphy talking into the camera.  I don't know him from a hole in the ground, but he just comes off as very likeable and nice.  

          Murphy talking about a new era for the AG office in PA would be very powerful.  

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:15:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Murphy is running for AG? (0+ / 0-)

      Who's running for his congressional seat? Did it get redistricted out?

      Hopefully it stays a positive race.

      Obviously I have no opinion on the race in that, while I have a passing  awareness of Murphy, can't say I remember that much about him.

      The other candidate I never heard of until today.

      You're for Murphy I take it?

    •  Phila newspapers - maybe recent sale affected endo (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The two main Phila newspapers - Phila Inquirer and Phila Dailty News- owned by same company, were recently sold.  One concern was whether the new owners (some of whom very actively partisan in Pa and NJ elections) would bring their personal partisan leanings to bear on the newspapers.  They assured "not". Some of new owners personally would be in the Pa AG Patrick Murphy camp, not in the GOP Gov Corbett-donating/ voting Kane camp.  I wonder if their "it's a close call but we endorse" Kane endorsements were a subtle attempted reassurance that that the newspapers' editorial lines are "independent" of the individual new owners.  
      I still wonder about the Phila turnout Tuesday.  Team Obama making no effort to boost that - which could mean Rmoney will get more votes in swing state Pennsylvania Tuesday instead of (former favorite - the new Pa conventional wisdom meme) Obama- Biden.  Low Phila turnout would also hurt Murphy more than Kane.

      •  You keep hitting on this (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Why the hell do you think it matters which party gets more votes in two un-contested presidential primaries?

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:32:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Please give Pete Stark credit (13+ / 0-)

    If he really called Swalwell a "fuckslime", he has coined a really excellent new insult.

    Other than pejorative neologisms, though, I can't see a case for retaining Rep. Stark any longer.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:38:14 AM PDT

  •  Crossroads' "legal strategy" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I just gotta say, it boggles my mind (yet again) that donating $17 million to conservative orgs that exist explicitly to influence elections and lobby politicians does not count as "political campaign and lobbying activities."

    That's exactly what the money is spent on.  Their money, which they gave to those people to spend that way.  Because they subcontracted the political activities, it doesn't count?

    The complete BS farce of our campaign finance rules consistently makes my brain hurt.

  •  I'm no fan of Stark (0+ / 0-)

    But I sure would like to know something about the other gut before I jump on his bandwagon.

    Can you tell me something about his opponent? Is his only virtue not being Stark?

  •  MO Senate Poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Geekesque

    Rasmussen polls MO Sen race:  

    McCaskill 42
    Steelman 49

    McCaskill 43
    Akin        48

    McCaskill  45
    Brunner   45

    Looks like Brunner needs to fire somebody: his millions are not buying this election!  

    The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

    by not2plato on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:40:07 AM PDT

    •  Given the Ras bias (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, DCCyclone, itskevin

      means McCaskill is ahead of Brunner, tied with Akin and slightly behind Steeleman.

      Margins are a little closer than the last Ras poll.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:47:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I actually think McCaskill (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geekesque, wwmiv

      Will be defeated by 8-10 in the end.  These people are still largely unknown and are no worse than tied in the polling with a ton of room to grow in a state that is trending the wrong way.  The only thing that gives me hope is McCaskill's massive cash advantage.

      I think Heitkamp and Tester will do better than her but narrowly lose, and Kerrey will do worse.  Then we pick up Mass and Maine (sort of).  Two seat loss.

      •  If she loses, and so does Tester, I don't know why (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Warren would win.  If things are swinging against us, we probably lose across the board.

        Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

        by James Allen on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:59:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Different states, different regions (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          killjoy, DCCyclone, gabjoh, askew, jncca, Matt Z

          Montana and Missouri are not Massachusetts and Maine.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

          by Paleo on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:03:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Paleo is right, & most precedent supports it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Some people might be letting their expectations become conditioned by three straight wave elections, but most elections are split decisions with a combination of individual candidate/officeholders' strengths and weaknesses, and each state's partisan bent, controlling the outcome.

            We had a net gain of 5 Senate seats in 2000, but still a couple Dem-held seats went GOP, and Chuck Robb still lost to George Allen.

            And there have been plenty of other years like that, when incumbents on both sides went down hard.

            I think spiderdem's prediction is as strong as any.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:41:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Because she is running in a (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          D+12 state in a presidential year.  I actually think she will win by 8-10.

          •  Claire may not be running in a D+12 state (6+ / 0-)

            but she'll be on the ballot with both the president, who'll be turning out lots of urban voters, and Jay Nixon, who'll likely dominate in the gubernatorial race and get a lot of ticket splitters that Obama couldn't get.  I have to think she will get some of the Romney/Nixon voters, and I think she'll get enough to win.

            Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

            by James Allen on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:07:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Me too (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, James Allen, Matt Z

              And more to the point, there's not much that we can do to help in Missourri.  McCaskill has enough money.  She has Obama driving turnout in urban areas and a super-popular Democratic governor who will hopefully lay himself on the line for her.

              The race will develop how it will, but i really don't know that it will change a whole lot between now and November, except we'll know the GOP candidate.  To me all three are pretty generic GOP, it will just depend on how Missourians see their obvious individual faults.

              I still have McCaskill slightly favored.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:12:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Gubernatorial races (0+ / 0-)

              Do not affect senate races. Blanche Lincoln lost by 20 points while Mike Beebe won by 20. Paul Hodes lost by 20 while John Lynch won by 6.

              NY-12 (born and raised), NY-25 (college), DKE newbie Liberal poll junkie and casual video gamer (but not Call of Duty, so don't ask about it.)

              by Commander Shepard on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:28:05 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, pretty much in line with my thinking (0+ / 0-)

        But they may lose one more, for a 3 seat loss.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:00:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ras tries to pull this stuff when no other polls (0+ / 0-)

      This should be reason enough for PPP to poll Missouri soon.  

      Didn't Steelman have brutal fundraising Q1?  And she polls the strongest here?

  •  Lugar's Odd Choices (9+ / 0-)

    In 1996, I was living in Iowa, and I was excited to participate in the Iowa caucus - on the Republican side.  I had lived in Indiana as a kid, and I had a positive opinion of Lugar, and I wanted to see what kind of presidential campaign he would run.

    His campaign only presented one reason to vote for Lugar - "I am the best candidate in case of nuclear war or nuclear terrorism."  Nothing more.  

    Now granted, I would trust Lugar with the launch codes before I would trust Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, or tire magnate Morry Taylor.  I didn't vote for them, but I didn't vote for Lugar either.  And he ended up with 4% of the Iowa vote.

    So it doesn't shock me that Lugar doesn't know how to engage a campaign, or that he writes esoteric columns on issues only he cares about, because I don't think he realizes that only he cares about them.  It's the same reason he couldn't beat Dole in 1996, and it's why I'm not expecting him to win in 2012.

    Republican, MI-09, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

    by Bart Ender on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:51:42 AM PDT

  •  Very disappointing about Stark (9+ / 0-)

    as he is the only open atheist in Congress, and possibly in American politics. I wish these folks in their 80s in safe seats (Stark, Slaughter, Rangel, et. al.) would groom successors instead of clinging to their posts for dear life.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 06:53:01 AM PDT

    •  Why shouldn't someone older hold a seat? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Let the people decide.

      I really thought the campaign here at dailykos against Rangel last time was just plain wrong.

      •  That wasn't ageism (4+ / 0-)

        It was because his censure reflected poorly on the party.

        NY-12 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

        by Bobby Big Wheel on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:09:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Why shouldn't someone older hold a seat? (0+ / 0-)

        Strom Thurmond.

        Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

        by milkbone on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 08:10:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The same went on against (0+ / 0-)

        Ted Kennedy here in MA, though not in print.  People get frustrated and annoyed with very long term incumbents who get sloppy and become convinced they're entitled to the seat for life.  That frustration with Kennedy here (47 years as Senator, and selfappointed top of the state/region's political hierarchy for maybe 30-35) got taken out on Martha Coakley- who had to identify very closely with him- and they rather deliberately elected a guy who defined himself, and is, the opposite of Kennedy.  Who is now also being tossed out, lightweight and useless that he is.

        I've heard rumblings of a lot of constituents of older CBC House Reps having gotten very tired them.  But come November, that's who's on the ballot- again- and voting for the other side is absurd.  No wants to dishonor people who distinguished themselves in the Civil Rights era and wars.  But the constituencies are changing and the seats are theirs.  Which generates a tension that takes the form of very harsh criticism of the incumbent when there is an opportunity such as a scandal.

        •  You give Kennedy too much credit (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          R30A, HoosierD42, GayHillbilly

          Coakley ran a terrible campaign, and that is why she lost.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 08:27:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's sad (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      milkbone, gabjoh

      but he's also fairly representative of the oldest generation(s) of atheists in the U.S.- middle class, white, male, and prone to ferocious rhetoric.  The upcoming generation in atheism has much wider demographics and social appeal.

      Considering the redistricting, and the likely outcome that Republicans will cling to House majority this fall, maybe it's not all bad that the older warhorses stay in one more term.  Maybe the key thing is that a set of good but unsuccessful primary challengers emerges who get name recognition and positive reputation in the new districts and will be available in the next elections.

  •  Stark's the only member of Congress who put a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    huge ND peace symbol in place of the logo of his bank during the Vietnam war, but he should step aside perhaps for someone who might be a less litigious and presumably more progressive opponent

    slutty voter for a "dangerous president"; Präsidentenelf-maßschach; Warning-Some Snark Above"Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Sciant terra viam monstrare." 政治委员, 政委!

    by annieli on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:02:43 AM PDT

  •  I find myself pulling for Martha McSally (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, geoneb

    because if AZ is crazy enough to elect a republican it might be more entertaining if it is someone who can deliver this kind of observation:

    Col. Martha McSally, a Republican candidate for former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' Arizona congressional seat and the first American woman to fly in combat, said on "Fox and Friends" on Friday that she'd like to kick Rick Santorum "in the Jimmy' after hearing his comments about women serving on the front lines of combat.

    "He's totally out of touch. I mean, completely out of touch. These are the types of arguments we heard 20, 25 years ago as to why women couldn't be fighter pilots. It's an insult to the men and women who are serving overseas, putting their lives on the line and focusing on the mission right now."

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:06:49 AM PDT

  •  lest we forget, (5+ / 0-)

    Pete Stark:

    "[I am] a Unitarian who does not believe in a Supreme Being. I look forward to working with the Secular Coalition to stop the promotion of narrow religious beliefs in science, marriage contracts, the military and the provision of social service."
    Tragic if madness has set in after all these years as the faithful progressive...let's not be calling him an "asshole", if you please.

    "Show up. Pay attention. Tell the truth. And don't be attached to the results." -- Angeles Arrien

    by Sybil Liberty on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:08:52 AM PDT

  •  Wow, calling Pete Stark an asshole... (4+ / 0-)

    What pipsqueak is calling Stark an asshole?

    Stark has a long and strong record as a liberal and good govt. proponent.  I was a voter in his district for a number of years and he is well liked.  Having worked for a local NGO as well, I can tell you that all his speaking fees go to progressive nonprofits.

    Look, Stark has often spoken intemperately--as the Chron pointed out, he's known for that.  Maybe it is time he retired.  But he has been a tireless champion for progressive causes and when a nobody like Nir calls him an asshole, well, I guess it does prove we progressives prefer to eat our own.

    Dan Carmell
    Oakland, California

    •  Well (5+ / 0-)

      He might be known for it, but he's in a new district mostly so he's not known for it to these people.  Also, the idea that the means justifies then end doesn't really play here.  

      If you can get the same voting without the crazed rehtoric and the absolute lies he's spewing, you take it.

      I'd also suggest you tone down your own rhetoric.  Markos came and hired David to create/run DKE, he's not a nobody.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:18:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  David Nir is entitled to his opinion (3+ / 0-)

      and if we can criticize FDR or anyone else, Pete Stark should not be immune.

      Make your argument for Stark, it sounds like you believe you have a strong one.

      My critique of David is on a different grounds, what';s the argument for Stark's opponent,

      I'd like to hear that. So far, crickets.

      •  This seems to me to get to the point. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Armando, GayHillbilly

        Let's begin by stopping with the name calling. Certainly I respect David Nir enormously and don't want him insulted. He's probably my favorite writer here on Daily Kos, among a host of great writers.

        Instead, let's think rationally about the contest between Stark and Swalwell. Granted that Stark is over the top, embarrassing, and ready to be replaced by a progressive capable of self-restraint. Still, he's had a distinguished career as a courageous progressive, and I wouldn't want to see him replaced by a craven promoter of developer and corporate interests. What's the basis for the charges that Swalwell is in developers' pockets? That is a huge problem in local politics--probably the biggest of all. Is Swalwell a pawn of the moneyed and the powerful? I have no idea. I have no information about him at all.

        Let's learn something about Swalwell before we start rooting for him or against him.

    •  Asshole (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, stevenaxelrod, David Nir

      and progressive champion are not mutually exclusive terms.  In fact, being an asshole might in some ways help one be a progressive champion.  Seems to me quite clear that Pete Stark is both.  I wonder if he would even disagree.

    •  His record is good, that's not the issue (9+ / 0-)

      The issue is his erratic behavior in this campaign, he doesn't seem to be playing with a full deck right now. That can't be overlooked because he's a progressive. It's not acceptable to make unfounded accusations against an opponent.

      25, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:50:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He is one. (0+ / 0-)

      Assholes can be useful in the right locations.(unintentional pun of sorts.)  This is one of those places. Sometimes you need someone who isn't politically correct to say some things which need to be said. In those cases, you end up having to deal with assholes. Such is life.

      Disclaimer: I strongly support Stark, I just do not feel such a description is inaccurate. The other part of my support for Stark is that he is the only congressman who is a member of arguably the most underrepresented minority group in this nation. (Also the only one I am a member of, so that is rather important to me. I suppose I am technically also 1/4 puerto rican, but the puerto rican branch of my family was entirely white anglo, and none of them spoke spanish.)

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 09:22:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The point is to plant the bug. Content be damned. (0+ / 0-)

    Strange but not a stranger.

    by jnww on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:15:23 AM PDT

  •  CA-15: I bet Ellen Corbett wishes she got in now (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sacman701, jncca

    If he went off on Swawell like that, he probably would have made some crazy assertions about her and that would have made it easy to defeat him. Stark has lost his mind completely.

    25, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 07:46:32 AM PDT

  •  Via tietack (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, itskevin

    DC808 (the Honolulu Civil Beat blog) somewhat strangely ran a whole post on Gabbard's DCCC donation, then took it back, here.  As tietack quoted, "UPDATE: Gabbard’s campaign also gave the DCCC $201 — the same amount as the donation — for 'Internet development' last quarter. We just contacted the Gabbard campaign for details. Stay tuned!"

    I feel bad I didn't notice that, so, apologies.  But!  From the back-taking:

    The DCCC mission is to “support Democratic House candidates every step of the way.” As the Hannemann campaign explained, that includes giving any Democratic candidate access to office space, telephones or other equipment (which then shows up in campaign finance documents as in-kind donations).

    The Hannemann camp explained that these are services made available to all Democratic candidates, and that the DCCC says it doesn’t take sides in races.

    Since when does the DCCC not take sides in primaries?

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 08:00:53 AM PDT

  •  Sounds like Vincent Rampton... (0+ / 0-)

    Will be Gen. Peter Cooke's choice for lieutenant governor. He's the son of former Gov. Cal Rampton, but that's the most impressive thing about him.

    Pretty disappointing pick. Won't be a game-changer at all.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 08:19:15 AM PDT

  •  Obama 56% approval rating in N.J. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, askew, DCCyclone, Matt Z

    54% among registered voters.  No head to head.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 08:23:07 AM PDT

  •  WV-Sen: John Raese hits a new low. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, Lidem89, sapelcovits, jncca, Matt Z

    He compares no-smoking signs to the Star of David patches that the Nazis forced the Jews to wear.

    Manchin was going to win anyway, but this only ices it.  Plus, Raese also insulted the government of populous Monongalia County in his little speech:

    And I oppose that, because I believe in everybody’s individual freedoms, and everybody’s individual rights to do what they want to do. And I’m a conservative and that’s the way that goes.

    But in Monongalia County now, I have to put a huge sticker on my buildings to say that this is a smoke-free environment. This is brought to you by the government of Monongalia County. OK?

    Remember, Hitler used to put Star of David on everybody’s lapel, remember that? Same thing.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 19, 2012 at 08:27:12 AM PDT

  •  Not sure why David Nir is so anti-Stark (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, GayHillbilly

    It's open knowledge out here in Pete's district that the Democratic Party organizations, who are pretty centrist and un-Progressive in in the East Bay, are in bed with developers. Pete is telling it like it is. Of course, in this post-Citizens-United world, the boundary between bribes and campaign contributions is kind of blurred. Pete's ultra-liberal and ultra-progressive, and I've seen him stand down Tea Partiers in public meetings as good as Barney Frank does. The only thing that really annoys me about having Pete as my congressman is that I don't have anything to complain about!

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