Another day, another serving of conflicting data on the presidential election. Having a double-digit point spread between presidential polls has been the norm, as of late, so today's offerings won't disappoint.
While there are some interesting bits of data downballot, it was a demographic approach to the question of the balance of power in November that merits the most attention today.
That analysis will come a bit later. For now, the numerical buffet awaits us:
(GOP) PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLLING (the category that refuses to die!):
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 49, Gingrich 20, Paul 13
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-43)
NATIONAL (NBC/Wall St. Journal): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
NATIONAL (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-46); Obama d. Romney w/Gary Johnson (L) (47-42-6); Obama d. Paul (47-44); Obama d. Gingrich (51-42)
NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-42)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (49-42)
FLORIDA (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (45-43)
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (48-45)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Dartmouth College): Romney d. Obama (44-42)
OHIO (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (45-39)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
IL-13 (Victoria Research for Gill): David Gill (D) 40, Jerry Clarke (R) 33; Gill 41, Rodney Davis (R) 31
MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sarah Steelman (R) 49, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 42; Todd Akin (R) 48, McCaskill 43; John Brunner (R) 45, McCaskill 45
PA-AG—D (Zata|3 for Kane): Kathleen Kane 42, Patrick Murphy 33
WI-GOV—D (Garin Hart Yang for Barrett): Tom Barrett 41, Kathleen Falk 27, Doug LaFollette 7, Kathleen Vinehout 4
The poll most worth exploring today, however, isn't in that jumble of data above. That poll, and my analysis of it, after the jump.
The crew at Democracy Corps has been awfully busy this week. Yesterday, they released an analysis of some of the most competitive GOP-held House districts in America. In those districts, they found that Barack Obama has actually narrowly edged ahead of Mitt Romney in those battlegrounds (he was down seven there in December). Furthermore, they found that the edge for the GOP incumbents in that myriad of districts (33 in all) has eroded notably: from a 53-39 edge in September to a 49-41 advantage now.
Today, Democracy Corps looks specifically at women (fitting, since the poll was co-sponsored by the Women Vote Action Fund). There, they found both cause for hope and cause for a modicum of concern for Democrats. On the plus side, they had pretty stark evidence that the recent heightened awareness of repeated GOP missteps on women's issues is exacting a real price with female voters:
In the Republican-held districts where we have data from last year, Democrats picked up a net 10 points among women since December and now lead by 4 points. Among unmarried women, Democrats lead by 20 points in Republican held districts. In the entire battleground represented in this survey - including both Republican and Democratic districts - Democrats hold a 51 to 41 lead over Republicans among women.
However, there is a cautionary note sounded as well by Democracy Corps. Those unmarried women might've moved strongly to the Democrats as a result of recent events. But, perhaps startlingly, that has not necessarily paid dividends with regards to their propensity to vote:
For Democrats, there is still work to do. Progress among younger women—and younger voters overall—is less promising. While Democrats enjoy a healthy margin among unmarried women, these women do not show the same enthusiasm for voting in the 2012 election as married women. Historically, progressives have left many votes on the table because of their failure to turn out unmarried women. Evidence in this survey suggests this could happen again.
Democracy Corps, to an extent, seems to get some confirmation of their data from today's national poll from
Quinnipiac. Quinnipiac did ask a question in their survey on the question of voter enthusiasm. While they did not get so specific in their demographic breakdown as to delineate between married and unmarried women, it is worth noting that the "enthusiasm" gap between men and women is palpable. In the Q poll, men were 14 percent more likely to declare themselves "more enthusiastic" about the forthcoming elections than "less enthusiastic" about them (37-23). For women, that spread was a mere three percent, with 28 percent saying they were "more enthusiastic" and 25 percent saying they were "less enthusiastic". Notably, white women joined Hispanic voters as the
only demographic groups with more in their cohort saying they were "less" enthusiastic than "more" enthusiastic.
Democrats, including the one in the White House, however, would do well to think of those voters the way that Democracy Corps does: votes "on the table." A high priority, one would think, will be placed on keeping those votes on the table, and in the ballot box, once November rolls around.