Remember a week ago, when Republicans (and Very Serious journos everywhere) were writing the obituary of the Obama presidency, based on the modest lead Mitt Romney had forged in the newly-minted daily tracking poll conducted by the venerable Gallup organization?
Yeah, not so much, now.
What was once a Romney lead of (ZOMG!) five points is now an Obama lead of seven points. But given the wild swings, it is hard to grant credibility to either the pessimistic results from last week or the more optimistic results of present day.
With that cautionary note out of the way, here are the numbers:
(GOP) PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLLING (yes ... it lives!):
TEXAS (PPP): Romney 45, Gingrich 35, Paul 14PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-42)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)
TEXAS (PPP): Romney d. Obama (50-43); Paul d. Obama (47-43); Gingrich d. Obama (47-45)
KY-04--R (Wenzel Strategies for Massie): Thomas Massie 32, Alecia Webb-Edgington 22, Gary Moore 17, Walter Schumm 4, Marc Carey 2, Brian Oerther 1, Thomas Wurtz 1A few thoughts, as always, just past the jump.
NH-GOV (WMUR/Univ. of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 34, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 29; Hassan 29, Kevin Smith (R) 24; Jackie Cilley (D) 31, Lamontagne 30; Cilley 30, Smith 23
NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 48, Heather Wilson (R) 43; Hector Balderas (D) 44, Wilson 43
NM-SEN--D (PPP): Martin Heinrich 51, Hector Balderas 27
NY-24 (McLaughlin and Associates for Buerkle): Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 42, Dan Maffei (D) 38
NC ANTI-MARRIAGE EQUALITY AMENDMENT (PPP): Yes 54, No 40
NC-GOV--D (PPP): Walter Dalton 26, Bob Etheridge 25, Bill Faison 5, Bruce Blackmon 4, Gary Dunn 4, Gardenia Henley 2
VA-SEN (Rasmussen): George Allen (R) 46, Tim Kaine (D) 45
While we await the returns in Pennsylvania (and I wonder why so many internal pollsters went so darned silent in the last week there!), a few thoughts about today's data:
- It's not just Gallup that is presenting head-scratching polling. Rasmussen once again finds itself on a bit of an island. While Gallup saw some sea change in the electorate towards the president over the last week, and PPP essentially held steady, Rasmussen saw a four-point swing towards Romney over the past week.
- Texas is right on the outside edge of attractive for the Obama team, one would have to think. The hard truth remains that the Lone Star State is probably a cycle or two away from being a legitimately purple political entity. But 38 electoral votes, and a seven-point margin, is bound to look awfully tempting to the crew in Chicago, especially if in the late stages they look to already have 270 electoral votes close to lockdown.
- PPP, meanwhile, finds significant tightening on next month's initiative battle in North Carolina over the "definition of marriage." Interestingly, there are two competing impulses at play that make predicting the final outcome tricky. "No" usually swoops up more of the undecided vote than "Yes" in these initiative campaigns, but any initiatives with gay marriage as the central issue tend to be pretty difficult to poll (specifically thinking of Maine in 2009 as I type this). That might be the most interesting thing on the ballot come next month in the Tar Heel State.
- Although, having just said that, the gubernatorial primary there among Democrats is getting increasingly competitive, and could prove to be a coin flip when Democrats head to the polls in two weeks.
- On the subject of speculation and polls: If Ann Marie Buerkle had a lead of about a tenth of a percentage over Dan Maffei in NY-25 in the uber-Republican climate of 2010, I am going to go out on a limb and say that I am a bit skeptical that she now leads by four in a district every bit as blue as the one she barely claimed two years ago.