Welcome to the first week of the rest of the 2012 campaign cycle. And, as expected, it was actually a pretty sleepy week, on balance. There were some big headlines downballot (where two House incumbents found themselves on the outs after a key primary election), but the race for the White House might have seen its slowest week in terms of news and data in months.
The near future could get pretty interesting, though. North Carolina and Indiana head to the polls in a little more than a week, and the primary elections for the Wisconsin recalls fall on the same date. That touches off a four-week span with 10 states having primary elections of some sort.
The moral of the story—it is only going to be quiet for a minute or two. So rest up. As for this week's data and headlines, you can find them just past the jump in this "calm before the storm" edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: One simply has to assume that, at long last, this will be the final week of this particular entry, right? Now that Newt Gingrich has finished his book tour suspended his presidential campaign, no one is really planning on polling Romney versus Paul, are they? Are they?
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 48, Gingrich 30, Paul 12
TEXAS (PPP): Romney 45, Gingrich 35, Paul 14
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: The tightening of the presidential race that we saw last week seemed to level off a bit this week, and never seems to have developed in full at the state-by-state level. Indeed, a pair of new polls this week confirmed Arizona as a legitimate toss-up (something it has not been, in a real way, since the 1996 reelection of Bill Clinton). Meanwhile, a UNH poll contradicted last week's Dartmouth poll showing Mitt Romney pulling narrowly ahead in New Hampshire. We had two competing polls in Virginia, though it is worth noting that PPP is headed there for next week, so a tie-breaker is in our very near future.
Arguably, the biggest feature this week is the sudden proliferation of electoral college projections flying out of the punditocracy. Some notable examples included Karl Rove (who tentatively has Obama up 284-172, with 82 as tossups), NBC's First Read (more pessimistic at Obama 231, Romney 197) and Larry Sabato (which went Obama 247, Romney 206).
The only one whose electoral college map is based off of data and not just educated conjecture was the electoral college map created by HuffPo/Pollster. And their map, by far, is the most bullish on Barack Obama. President Obama is at 298 electoral votes in their tabulation, with Mitt Romney at 170.
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-45)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
NATIONAL (Princeton Survey Research/National Journal): Obama d. Romney (47-39)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)
NATIONAL (YouGov/The Economist): Romney d. Obama (47-46)
ARIZONA (Behavior Research Center): Obama d. Romney (42-40)
ARIZONA (Merrill/Morrison Institute): Romney d. Obama (44-42)
COLORADO (Purple Strategies): Obama tied with Romney (47-47)
FLORIDA (Purple Strategies): Romney d. Obama (47-45)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (WMUR/Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama d. Romney (51-42)
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (54-40)
OHIO (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
TEXAS (PPP): Romney d. Obama (50-43); Paul d. Obama (47-43); Gingrich d. Obama (47-45)
VIRGINIA (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (48-46)
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (45-44)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: Arguably the biggest Senate poll this week had nothing to do with November. For the first time, a poll this week (albeit one sponsored by an organization supporting his rival) showed incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) trailing by a modest margin when paired with tea-flavored challenger Richard Mourdock. This might have the ring of truth, folks. Why? Well, this isn't always probative, but as David Nir noted on Thursday afternoon, we know that the Lugar campaign paid for some polling recently. But we haven't seen any numbers. If I was a Lugar backer, that reticence would make me more than a little nervous.
In other polling news, Democrat Richard Carmona apparently wanted to change the narrative that his open-seat challenge of a GOP-held seat in Arizona was, at best, a second-tier opportunity for Democrats. His internal showed him down, but by only four points, far less than some recent public polling had hinted. We also saw PPP drop two polls, one giving Democrats a narrow edge in New Mexico, and the other making the GOP the clear leader in Texas. And the House of Ras came back to offer their traditional "all is well for the GOP assessment" of a key Senate race (this time in Virginia), but they also further emasculated the sagging candidacy of Connie Mack in Florida, by echoing PPP on the assessment that he now trails incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson by double digits. Remember: This is the same pollster that said Mack was ahead by seven points not very long ago!
AZ-SEN (Anzalone Liszt for Carmona): Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 39
FL-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack (R) 36; Nelson 44, George LeMieux (R) 30; Nelson 48, Mike McCallister (R) 29
IN-SEN—R (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Richard Mourdock 44, Sen. Dick Lugar 39
NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 48, Heather Wilson (R) 43; Hector Balderas (D) 44, Wilson 43
TX-SEN (PPP): David Dewhurst (R) 49, Paul Sadler (D) 35; Dewhurst 50, Sean Hubbard (D) 35; Ted Cruz (R) d. Sadler (44-34); Cruz d. Hubbard (43-33); Ted Leppert (R) d. Sadler (44-33); Leppert d. Hubbard (44-34); Craig James (R) d. Sadler (40-36); James d. Hubbard (41-35)
TX-SEN--R (PPP): David Dewhurst 38, Ted Cruz 26, Tom Leppert 8, Craig James 7
VA-SEN (Rasmussen): George Allen (R) 46, Tim Kaine (D) 45
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- With about 10 days to go in Indiana, it is hard not to get the sinking feeling that incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar is badly on the ropes here. He tried to dredge up a Mourdock questionnaire from 1992 to sell the meme that he is a Johnny Come Lately to the cause of conservatism, but that is getting drowned out by an onslaught from the Club For Growth, who dropped nearly a half-mil on an ad saying Lugar has betrayed the conservative cause far more recently. Meanwhile, Mourdock continues to whack Lugar on the whole residency thing, which has not gone away, much to Lugar's dismay. Add in the polling thing (see above), one has to wonder if another incumbent member of Congress is about to get put into early retirement.
- Democrats are already high on Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, and the GOP incumbent she is seeking to replace may have helped the blue team out with a whale of an unforced error. He sent out a national mailer, where he warned that his vote may be the "only sure hedge" to an Obama second-term agenda. Not smart, given he represents a state where Obama is likely to win by 20 points or more. This gives team Warren a whale of an opening to suggest that Brown pretends to be an independent moderate, but behind the back of deep-blue Massachusetts voters, he thinks like a typical Republican.
- Rarely do I use a bullet point in the Weekend Digest to feature a campaign ad, but I think this one out of Ohio may just be that good. It seems like Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is confident he has found an Achilles' Heel for GOP upstart Josh Mandel. Watch the ad, and see if you agree.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: If you buy much stock in the polling crew at the University of New Hampshire (and their numbers have been a bit wacky in the past), you have to feel pretty good about November if you are a Democrat. The UNH poll, conducted for local media, found that both Republican incumbents in the Granite State (freshman Rep. Frank Guinta and recently returned veteran Rep. Charlie Bass) would trail their Democratic challengers if the election were held today.
Aside from that, the only other general election polls this week were of the internal poll variety. In a bizarre game of "can you top this?", Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan decided to challenge the narrative that his race was a potentially close one by releasing a month-old poll showing him up handily. Within 24 hours, his Democratic opponent (Keith Fitzgerald) fired a retaliatory strike of sorts, by dropping a two-month old poll showing him only down by 11, with Buchanan under 50 percent. And it's only April!
AR-01--D (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Scott Ellington 15, Clark Hall 10, Gary Latanich 4
AR-04--R (Talk Business/Hendrix College): Tom Cotton 39, Beth Anne Rankin 39, John Cowart 4
CA-02 (Lake Research for Solomon): Jared Huffman (D) 18, Norman Solomon (D) 10, Susan Adams (D) 8, Stacey Lawson (D) 5 (++)
FL-16 (Public Opinion Strategies for Buchanan): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 58, Keith Fitzgerald (D) 36
FL-16 (SEA Polling for Fitzgerald): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 49, Keith Fitzgerald (D) 38
KY-04--R (Wenzel Strategies for Massie): Thomas Massie 32, Alecia Webb-Edgington 22, Gary Moore 17, Walter Schumm 4, Marc Carey 2, Brian Oerther 1, Thomas Wurtz 1
NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Carol Shea-Porter (D) 44, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 39
NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Anne Kuster (D) 40, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 39
NY-24 (McLaughlin and Associates for Buerkle): Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 42, Dan Maffei (D) 38
(++)—Other candidates in the race were tested, but polled at or under 3 percent.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Pennsylvania brought two extremely interesting outcomes during their primaries on Tuesday night, and one of them has to qualify as a legitimate upset. In PA-12, labor proved to be the key difference as freshman Rep. Mark Critz scored the 51-49 upset over fellow Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. Critz had been an underdog throughout the primary season—indeed, even his own internal polls initially showed him down to Altmire. Meanwhile, in PA-17, the outcome that would have been considered shocking in January actually emerged as an "as-expected" outcome by primary day. Incumbent Rep. Tim Holden, a veteran member of the Blue Dog coalition, fell to Matt Cartwright. There had been a litany of hints over the past month that the race may have been getting away from Holden, not the least of which was a Cartwright internal poll released in the past week showing him out in front that was never answered by Team Holden.
- Looking ahead to November, the DCCC expanded their Red-to-Blue program, with few surprises with regard to the additions. They also expanded their emerging races list. Perhaps the most notable exception—Rob Zerban, who is challenging conservative lightning rod Paul Ryan and has raised a more-than-fair amount of moolah thus far.
- I have heard of ugly campaigning, but this is ridiculous—and damned near "Air Ball" worthy. In TN-03, freshman Rep. Chuck Fleischmann is in a contentious primary with not just one, but two, GOP primary challengers. This week, the tire stem on the car of his campaign head was slashed, and team Fleischmann claimed that they had video evidence that the assailant came off of a campaign bus for primary opponent Scottie Mayfield. Turned out, they were right—and it wasn't just some random intern: It was the candidate's 33-year old son! And, for those craving entertainment, it is still over three months until primary day in the Volunteer State!
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: The three biggest headline polls this week downballot, arguably, were all about challenging the conventional wisdom in those races. Most urgently, that was the case in North Carolina, where an attack on marriage equality is on the ballot in just over a week. After months of the Marriage initiative looking like a sure winner, PPP found a marked tightening in that referendum, with the "yes" votes down to just 54 percent. This gave new hope to marriage equality forces, who can hope that the old stand-by that most undecideds vote "no" on propositions is true. Because, if it is, they only have to flip 5 percent of the Tar Heel State electorate to score the upset defeat of this proposition.
On the candidate level, there were two other narrative-altering polls, as well. In Wisconsin, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (the campaign wing for non-federal downballot Democrats) sponsored a poll which was offered up as a counterpoint to the more pessimistic numbers we featured here on Daily Kos last week. And in New Hampshire, after months of polling showing the Republicans narrowly favored to seize the Democratic-held governorship (abandoned by the retiring Gov. John Lynch), a new UNH poll showed either Democrat with small leads over their Republican opposition.
NH-GOV (WMUR/Univ. of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 34, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 29; Hassan 29, Kevin Smith (R) 24; Jackie Cilley (D) 31, Lamontagne 30; Cilley 30, Smith 23
NC ANTI-MARRIAGE EQUALITY AMENDMENT (PPP): Yes 54, No 40
NC-GOV--D (PPP): Walter Dalton 26, Bob Etheridge 25, Bill Faison 5, Bruce Blackmon 4, Gary Dunn 4, Gardenia Henley 2
NC-GOV—D (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Walter Dalton 32, Bob Etheridge 27, Bill Faison 4 (++)
NC-GOV—R (PPP): Pat McCrory 67, Jim Harney 3, Jim Mahan 2, Paul Wright 2, Scott Jones 1, Charles Kenneth Moss 1
WI-GOV--D (Paul Maslin for Falk): Tom Barrett 40, Kathleen Falk 32
WI-SD-21 (Myers Research for the DLCC): John Lehman (D) 51, Sen. Van Wangaard (R) 47
WI-SD-23 (Myers Research for the DLCC): Sen. Terry Moulton (R) 49, Kristin Dexter (D) 47
WI-SD-29 (Myers Research for the DLCC): Jerry Petrowski (R) 51, Donna Seidel (D) 45
(++)—Other candidates in the race were tested, but polled at or under 3 percent.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- This is more along the lines of "along the penitentiary trail," but former New York state senator Carl Kruger was finally sentenced late this week to seven years in prison for corruption charges to which he pled guilty last week. This does have some campaign relevance—the special election to replace him (between Democrat Lew Fidler and Republican David Storobin) still remains unresolved, almost six weeks after election day. The race has gone to the courts, with accusations flying in both directions.
- With the recall primary elections looming in Wisconsin, both of the leading Democratic contenders to challenge GOP Gov. Scott Walker decided to lay down their financial markers in advance of Monday's filing deadline. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett announced that he had raised over $750,000. Former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk had announced a haul of over $1 million, but recall that Barrett's take is in roughly a month, while Falk's total represents the total amount since the start of the year.
- Finally, if you want to talk about the textbook definition of mixed emotions, perhaps you ought to have a chat with newly elected state Rep. Martin Schmotzer in Pennsylvania. Schmotzer won election to the lege in a special election Tuesday night in the Pittsburgh-area 22nd district, beating Republican Chris Cratsley by double digits. Big party! Except, on that same ballot, Schmotzer actually lost the Democratic primary in the 22nd to Erin Molchany by double digits. So, he will serve until the end of the year, and then presumably Molchany will claim his seat. There is some precedent for that—the same thing happened in Hawaii in 1986 to Democrat Neal Abercrombie, who went on in 1990 to be elected in his own right and now serve as the state's governor.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
The top two vote getters from last week's "Air Ball" festivities are back, with two formidable new contenders. Mitt Romney and John Raese did their part, though, in their bid to earn another trip to the medal stand. But how can you compete with the most expensive book tour in history and the shittiest excuse for refusing petitions since ... I dunno ... ever? This one could be a tight one:
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): Gingrich announced, less than 24 hours after his "hail mary" pass in Delaware netted him a 30-point loss, that he was finally giving up the ghost. Unlike normal candidates, however, Gingrich announced he would suspend his campaign in a week or so, and make a few other appearances in-between. As my friend and colleague Laura Clawson noted at the time, does anyone doubt that this guy has been vacationing in the guise of campaigning all along? And, bear in mind, that Mr. Fiscal Austerity was costing the taxpayers the equivalent of a school teacher a day for Secret Service protection that wouldn't have been necessary had he not spent the last six weeks or so pretending to be a serious presidential candidate.
The Michigan State Board of Canvassers: I am as hardened and cynical a political dude as anyone. But suppressing petitions for a popular referendum on a controversial legislative bill because of mother-freaking font size?! Really?!
Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV): Obviously, perennial GOP hopeful Raese wants to win somewhere. And having been denied the "Air Ball" last week thanks to an awe-inspiring performance Mitt Romney, Raese decided to double down by ... err ... defending Ted Nugent?! Congratulations on your reelection, Sen. Joe Manchin!
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney (R-MA): Mitt and taxes. Yup, something tells me this one is going to be a recurring theme on the campaign trail. Now, as the topic turns to the discussion of potential veeps, Romney says he wants to meet with his advisors, his legal team, and look over their tax returns. For reals.