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Yes, it's early. Yes, a lot can happen. So, exactly how does Romney get to the White House without Virginia?

In addition to PPP's 51-43 Obama lead from May 3, the Washington Post has a new poll out Thursday afternoon (MoE +/- 3.5):

President Obama leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in Virginia but commonwealth voters are evenly divided on the White House’s major policies, a new Washington Post poll shows.

Obama is ahead of Romney, the presumed Republican nominee, 51 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. And Romney does no better against Obama than he did a year ago, despite his emergence as the GOP standard-bearer.

Here's what struck me in the WaPo story:
By a whopping 97 to 1 percent, Obama thumps Romney among black voters, and he has a wide lead among women: 56 to 38. Obama’s up by better than 2 to 1 margin among those aged 18 to 29, but he faces a challenge in the coming months in that many of them— 34 percent in this poll— are not registered to vote at their current address.
Obama's policies get a mixed review, but his job approval in VA is at 53. Meanwhile Republicans in Congress are underwater at Enthusiastic/Satisfied 36, Dissatisfied/Angry 60 (both numbers unchanged from a year ago).

If the battleground is VA and the southwest, as Kos has observed, Team Romney is going to have their work cut out for them. That's especially true if the VA polls keep coming in like this.

Originally posted to Greg Dworkin on Thu May 03, 2012 at 03:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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