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Leading Off:

VA-Gov: Public Policy Polling has a very early look at the 2013 gubernatorial race in Virginia, where Democrats would actually start off with a big advantage—but only if Sen. Mark Warner were to try to reclaim the governor's mansion, which he held from 2002 to 2006. Here are the results (4/26-29, Virginia voters, MoE: ±3.8%, no trendlines):

Mark Warner (D): 53
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 33
Undecided: 14

Mark Warner (D): 53
Bill Bolling (R): 32
Undecided: 14

Mark Warner (D): 58
Tareq Salahi (R): 19
Undecided: 23

Terry McAuliffe (D): 41
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 36
Undecided: 23

Terry McAuliffe (D): 34
Bill Bolling (R): 36
Undecided: 30

Terry McAuliffe (D): 43
Tareq Salahi (R): 18
Undecided: 38

Tom Perriello (D): 39
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 36
Undecided: 25

Tom Perriello (D): 34
Bill Bolling (R): 35
Undecided: 31

Tom Perriello (D): 44
Tareq Salahi (R): 20
Undecided: 36

In case you are unfamiliar with the other players, Terry McAuliffe is a former DNC chair and also an unsuccessful 2009 candidate for the Democratic nomination; Tom Perriello is a former one-term congressman who represented VA-05; Bill Bolling is the state's current lieutenant governor and "establishment" choice; Ken Cuccinelli is Virginia's attorney general and a favorite among movement conservatives; and Tareq Salahi is that rich d-bag who is most famous for crashing a White House state dinner with his wife in 2009.

PPP also tested the GOP primary (MoE: ±4.9%):

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 51
Bill Bolling (R): 23
Tareq Salahi (R): 4
Undecided: 22
This is actually good news for Democrats, since Bolling performs better against our lesser-known candidates (McAuliffe and Perriello) than the more polarizing Cuccinelli. Of course, that could change over the next year-and-a-half, but for now, I'll take it. (And man must Bolling be regretting his decision to defer to Bob McDonnell in the gubernatorial race in 2009. He figured he'd have a clean shot in 2013 by "waiting his turn," but Cuccinelli's ambition has completely ruined those plans.)

Senate:

AZ-Sen (PDF): Republican robopollster Magellan is out with a new Arizona survey (conducted on behalf of consulting firm DC London). Though they find Mitt Romney up 52-43 over Barack Obama, they have Republican Rep. Jeff Flake up just four points over Democrat Richard Carmona in the Senate race, 44-40—a heartening sign, even if the presidential numbers aren't what we might want. Crosstabs are here (PDF).

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk's recovery is moving forward, as the senator is heading home from a rehab institute to continue his treatment. Kirk, a Republican, suffered a debilitating stroke in January.

MT-Sen: Rasmussen: Jon Tester (D-inc): 43 (44), Denny Rehberg (R): 53 (47)

NM-Sen: This seems like the kind of move I bet Tea Partiers and Paulists were hoping they'd see a lot more of from Sen. Rand Paul after he won election last cycle: an endorsement of a hopeless anti-establishment outsider over a favored establishment insider with a perfidy to the conservative movement. Mostly, young Rand has kept his head down and gone along with what the Mitch McConnells of the world tell him to do, but he's finally letting his freak flag fly in the New Mexico Senate race, where he just announced he's backing no-hoper Greg Sowards against ex-Rep. Heather Wilson. For once, I agree with Rand Paul: I'd also love to see Sowards as the GOP's nominee!

NV-Sen: Democrat Shelley Berkley is going up with her first TV ad of the Senate race, a 60-second spot featuring the father of a Marine who died of a drug overdose after receiving inadequate care following a diagnosis of post-traumatic stress syndrome. Berkley reached out to the family and helped pass legislation that required substance-abuse treatment facilities at all VA medical centers. The buy is reportedly for $45K and the ad is airing in Reno in the northern part of the state, where Berkley's name recognition is lowest. You can watch the ad at the link or below:

NY-Sen: I'm not sure I could come up with a better example of why I have an impossible time taking the GOP field that's lined up to challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand at all seriously. Just check out George Maragos's first ad—it looks like it was produced by a guy who rants about city bus schedules at 3am on public access cable. Meanwhile, his website looks like it belongs to a particularly seedy check-cashing shop, if the World Wide Web had existed in 1982. And Maragos is the one candidate who actually has any money!

Gubernatorial:

KS-Gov: After a recent SurveyUSA poll found GOP Gov. Sam Brownback with a disastrous 34-44 job approval rating (worse than President Obama's surprisingly good 43-49 score), Republicans commissioned a survey from Public Opinion Strategies to push back against those numbers. As you'd expect, they found Brownback doing a lot better, with 51% approving. But buried in the very last graf is this surprising figure: POS's poll has Brownback up just 42-29 against a generic Democrat in 2014, despite winning by 63-32 last cycle.

MT-Gov: Even though Dem Sen. Jon Tester finally took the lead in PPP's latest Senate poll, his counterpart in the governor's race, AG Steve Bullock, didn't see his fortunes improve by a similar margin. Bullock is tied with GOP frontrunner Rick Hill at 39, basically unchanged from Hill's 39-38 edge in late November. Hill also leads in the Republican primary, with 33% to 12% for Ken Miller, 7% for Corey Stapleton, 5% for Neil Livingstone, 4% for Jim Lynch and Jim O'Hara, and 1% for Bob Fanning. That's down from a 27-point lead for Hill last time, but Montana's primary is only a month away, so Miller doesn't have much time left to make a move.

House:

AZ-08: The DCCC has upped its ad buy in the AZ-08 special election to $473K, according to Shira Toeplitz. (That includes the roughly $160K they'd already spent, so we're talking about $300K or so more.) Let's see if the NRCC follows suit.

IN-08: There are few things I love more in politics than a good rat-fucking, and it looks like the DCCC is trying to do just that in the IN-08 GOP primary. Larry Bucshon, one of the weaker freshmen in the House Republican caucus, is facing a rematch from tea partier Kristi Risk, whom he only narrowly beat (33-29) in a nine-way fight for his party's nomination in 2010. Risk has raised peanuts, but the same was true last cycle, so evidently she's appealing to the movement conservative base in a way that Bucshon is not.

And as unimpressive a candidate as Bucshon is in the general election, Risk would undoubtedly be worse, which explains why the D-Trip has launched a series of live phone calls to likely Republican voters castigating Bucshon for his free-spending ways when it comes to his congressional franking privileges. The primary is only a few days away, but this is usually the kind of stunt you want to try at the end, when your victim has as little time as possible to respond. Will it be enough to upset Bucshon? Who knows, but if it works, it would be money well spent on behalf of Democrat Dave Crooks.

NC-08: If I were Eric Cantor, I think I'd probably tell my buddies running the YG Action Fund to stop meddling in GOP primaries and focus on the general election instead. After all, Cantor's generated nothing but headaches for himself—and bad feelings among his fellow Republicans—for his PAC's interference in the now-notorious IL-16 nominating contest... but the group is at it again. It's nothing quite so incendiary as picking sides in a member-vs.-member race, but they're throwing down $53K for radio ads on behalf of former congressional aide Richard Hudson, on top of $23K they already spent on mailers. Hudson is one of several Republicans vying to take on Dem Rep. Larry Kissell and is described by Roll Call's Joshua Miller as the "frontrunner."

NJ-09: Democratic Rep. Steve Rothman is out with his second ad, a spot which touts his efforts to provide a payroll tax cut for middle class families—and his opposition to the Wall Street bailout. He also adds (speaking directly to the camera) that he's "fighting to make millionaires pay their fair share." You can watch at the link or below:

NY-21: This is a bit frustrating: Supporters of Republican Matt Doheny are trying to knock Dem Rep. Bill Owens off of the Working Families Party ballot line, claiming the signatures submitted on Owens' behalf are invalid. On the one hand, because WFP membership is quite small in this district, Owens only needed to submit a tiny number of petitions—60 (he filed 94). But on the flipside, that means Republicans only need to invalidate a handful to deny him the WFP line. In 2010, Owens won over 6,000 votes under the WFP banner, three times as many as his overall margin of victory over Doheny (who is seeking a rematch). The matter is headed to court, where a hearing will be held on Tuesday.

WA-01: So I guess there's a split between various local branches of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers? State Sen. Steve Hobbs just picked up the endorsement of IBEW Local 191, but earlier this week, one of his Democratic primary rivals, Darcy Burner, scored the backing of IBEW Local 46. Commenter Inkpen has some thoughts on this divergence and even points us to a map showing which local covers which counties.

WA-05: In what is apparently a surprise move, Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown just announced she won't seek re-election after serving in the legislature for twenty years. Brown, though, is only 55 and would make a strong congressional candidate against GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, but reading her statement, it definitely doesn't sound like she's interested in running for office again. (H/t Sao)

Grab Bag:

Polltopia: Awesome! PPP will be polling Iowa this weekend, the state we'd been pulling for (seeing as it hasn't been properly polled since February). They'll also be going into Ohio, so they're looking for questions to ask in each state.

SC Lege: This is a pretty wild story: The South Carolina Supreme Court just kicked up to a hundred candidates off the ballot for the state legislature this fall, citing improperly filed paperwork. (The violation seems amazingly ticky-tack: Office-seekers had to file financial disclosures at the exact same moment they filed their candidacy paperwork. One guy submitted his financial form all of 42 minutes later.) As you can imagine, a ton of races have been thrown into utter disarray, and some seats now have zero candidates running for them! It doesn't sound like there are a lot of good options here, though the state GOP is saying they might bring a federal lawsuit.

Redistricting Roundup:

NY Redistricting: A bummer, but expected: New York's highest appellate court just affirmed a lower court's ruling finding that the mathematical legerdemain used by Republicans to squeeze a 63rd seat out of a state Senate map that previously only supported 62 districts did not violate the state constitution. You can read the full decision here (PDF). However, the Senate map is by no means out of the woods: It's still subject to at least one further line of attack in a parallel federal lawsuit.

Independent Expenditures:

• As campaign season heats up, we'll be summarizing independent expenditure (IE) filings posted with the FEC. (You can find such filings yourself here.) Note that organizations typically have 48 hours to file IE reports, so sometimes you'll see things listed here which we've mentioned previously, thanks to media reports that were published before the IE filings were made.

IN-Sen: The generically-named USA Super PAC drops $100K on pro-Richard Mourdock (R) mail

IN-Sen: NRA drops $70K in ad buys for Mourdock

NE-Sen: Club For Growth spends $194K on TV & radio buys against Jon Bruning (R) (ad here, but note it was already mentioned in a previous digest)

UT-Sen: NRA spends $75K on pro-Orrin Hatch (R) radio ads

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Job gains 115,000, rate dips to 8.1% (6+ / 0-)

    Enough, politically, I think.  Seven straight montsh of 6 figure job gains.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:39:47 AM PDT

    •  Not Enough..... (0+ / 0-)

      Headlines will be disastrous all weekend.  The Dow will plunge today.  Romney will pounce and his poll numbers will rise.   Anything under 150,000 was gonna be a mess.  Less than last month is a full-on trainwreck.  The only saving grace is that the rate percentage is 8.1%.  

      •  90 seat loss! (7+ / 0-)

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:46:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Gloom and doom (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        We'll see.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:47:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well.... (0+ / 0-)

          ....a couple good reports in the summer can undo the damage obviously, but prepare for a very bad month of headlines.

          •  We just had a couple good reports (7+ / 0-)

            We had a good report last month for March, showing unemployment dropped from 8.3 to 8.2, even though everyone said it would be 8.3 or even 8.4.

            Now we had another good report for April, showing unemployment dropped again from 8.2 to 8.1, even though everyone said it would be 8.2 or 8.3.

            At some point pundits and junkies are going to come to realize that the unemployment rate is what most people really care about.

            The only reason jobs numbers are a legitimate concern is to the extent they signal unemployment rising down the road.  But if you're not expecting that, then they don't matter.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:40:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yep (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, TofG, askew, sapelcovits

              Even the big Drudge headline is "8.1%", and he's trying to spin the report negatively.

              I think this is all right. I was expecting a similar seasonally adjusted gain to what we had last month; others' predictions of 160,000 or more jobs were obviously too optimistic.

              What I wasn't expecting, though, was for the unemployment rate to tick down again. So I am actually pleasantly surprised by this report, as weird as that sounds.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:00:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I think the reality is if the rate drops (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, SaoMagnifico, TofG, askew

            it probably gets reported as good or at least somewhat positive.

          •  Looking at job growth for the last 2-3 years.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG

            ....it seems that we have pretty decent growth for several months in a row, then a fairly serious drop off, and then growth springs back up again. It's like the economy wants to get going, but doesn't quite have enough juice. Of course, all the Republicans will say is "AUSTERITY!!!!"

      •  My god, the entire industrialized (13+ / 0-)

        world is seeing growing unemployment, crippling deficits, and rising energy costs, while even China's growth is slowing and inflated by it's government statistics, and the U.S. sees the seventh consecutive month of 6 digit job gains, to add with a very successful streak on its stock markets, and you are declaring disaster in the most hysterical terms.

        Not to mention other parts of the latest reports, such as corporate cash flow, individual saving, manufacturing growth, and stabilization in the housing market, look very good and suggest that an artificially strong winter hiring market has simply depleted some of the steam in spring? I feel increasingly bullish that May, June and July will present stronger job growth, back in the 200,000 range or close to it, and that employment will be under 8% by the time of the DNC in Charlotte, all very good optics for Obama's economic plan.

        Between this and the age of economic downturn and scarcity you've declared America to be entering, I'm not sure what to think.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:50:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Consumers Will Respond Negatively..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....to this month's bearish report which will have a naturally suppressing effect on future months' job growth.  Obviously you're correct that a couple 200,000 new jobs reports this summer can reverse the political and economic damage, but the likelihood of that outcome was just reduced today with an expectation of consumer thrift based on an expectation of more brimstone and fire to come.

          Whatever the consensus opinion on DKE about the jobs report, I can promise you that it won't be shared by the people who write news headlines.  The Dow fell yesterday in anticipation of a 170,000 new jobs report.  I submit to you that if you think my response to the jobs report is "declaring disaster in the most hysterical terms", just wait till you see the evening news tonight!

          •  most consumers (9+ / 0-)

            Don't even know what the jobs report is.  As long as the unemployment rate is going down it will be fine

          •  Thank you for your concern (5+ / 0-)

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:06:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Consumers will focus on 8.1% unemployment (12+ / 0-)

            and ignore the details, just like they usually do. Only political nerds like us see these jobs numbers.

            The economy is still improving. That's what counts.

            •  That's Our Best Hope..... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bear83

              ....but it will still be against the backdrop of nightly news reports of stalled growth.  But yes, the 8.1% is the only salvageable part of this report.

              •  Remember August? (5+ / 0-)

                Zero jobs! It didn't stop September coming in at over 200k.

                "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:19:23 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Again, the fundamentals (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin

                  seem so strong right now, that a bit of added pessimism doesn't look like it's going to stop a couple of 200+ job reports of the summer that are going to knock the legs out from underneath of the centerpiece of the Romney campaign.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:35:38 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Already pundits are saying... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, TofG, ArkDem14

                  The May jobs report will be much more significant than the April jobs report. And they're right.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:02:13 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  No, not hope, that's the reality (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, TofG, jj32, askew

                It's always been the reality.

                The unemployment rate is the endgame most people care about, and always has been coming out of a recession.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:23:44 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  In Principle I Agree..... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...but if the backdrop of a 0.1% reduction in the unemployment rate is a weekend's worth of reporting on how we should be extremely bummed about this job report, with reinforcements of this every time the economy comes up on the news in the next month, the rate loses some of its impact.  Certainly in the past, in a less heavily scrutinized political point than our current election year situation, your thesis is right and the actual rate is what matters most.  But with an obsessed media hanging on these jobs numbers all week just waiting for a feeding frenzy if the numbers didn't live up to expectation, I don't think it holds true right now.

                  •  Your argument was disproved the past month (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew, ArkDem14

                    The media focused on the "bad" jobs number last month and the voting public shrugged it off.

                    And there's every reason to expect the same now.

                    Again, the unemployment rate is the endgame most people care about, it's the one thing they understand and care about.

                    The unemployment rate is the end zone.

                    The jobs numbers are just hash marks on the field.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:18:31 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  There was more to the Dow's (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Pinto Pony, askew

            tepid numbers yesterday than one sub-par jobs report. And a follow up loss of 200-300 while possible, is not the end of the world. It happens. And the market will probably make the two loss up over the next week or two.

            I think such utter pessimism like yours would be the only thing that could lead to a job report like this depressing consumer spending, of course the media will have it's back and forth headline about a weaker hiring month and struggling recovery, but the underlying fundamentals are looking better than the media suggests, and the public has been going through this so long that the political impact is limited from one month; not that positive growth and further reduction in the unemployment rate and moderate easing of energy prices can ever be harmful politically for Obama; essentially at the moment, because of the type of candidate Romney is, the economy is still, in the background of Obama's aggressive campaign, a bit of a wash in the Presidential race. There will be no panic in the streets, no 1500 point drop in the DOW, and no collapse of Obama's polling numbers because of a tepid job report.

            April is a bit of an in-between month anyway, in my mind, stuck between this years warm winter and bullish early hiring, and at the tail end of an underwhelming but solid (it kept the growth and unemployment reductions going, just not impressively), spring, it comes right before the summer economic season kicks up.

            This summer especially. People have been saving the last few years at a higher rate, I'd expect this summer to see some strong consumer numbers from the large numbers of people who are now somewhat more secure and ready to start spending again, whether on travel or new cars or household products or the like.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:08:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I Can Go Along With Most of This.... (0+ / 0-)

              .....as there are some more promising than usual overall indicators out there for the medium term.  But I think you're greatly underestimating the impact of THIS monthly jobs report.  I've never seen a jobs report approached with this much anticipation and fanfare, and with the numbers coming up this far below the expectations (and even the expectation of 170,000 was viewed as woefully insufficient by the preliminary headline writers), I expect an outsized impact simply because of the very high profile.

              •  Perhaps (0+ / 0-)

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:21:02 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  What does any of this have to do with the (0+ / 0-)

                  topics of the diary?  I'm not saying this just to you ArkDem14, but I like these SSP diaries and I wish we could honor the hard work that David and other do by discussing the excellent material they provide.

                  I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

                  by Satya1 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:38:37 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It has everything to do with (0+ / 0-)

                    what kind of election year this will be.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:37:20 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  But you always vastly overestimate everything (0+ / 0-)

                Every jobs report has had a big build up. This one is no different. I'd rather question how badly the expectations always seem to be wrong, good or bad.

                "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:23:38 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  The Dow is probably also dropping (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, bumiputera, ArkDem14

              because the jobs report isn't bad enough. It's mixed. And that means the Fed will be less likely to ride to the rescue.

              Diminished prospects of Fed support makes investors unhappy.

          •  The same pundits (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            okiedem, Pinto Pony, askew

            who are practically having an orgasm over the Elizabeth Warren Cherokee thing? Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:13:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've wondered how you even (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              turn that into an issue.

              "In 1995 Harvard claimed Elizabeth Warren as a minority Native American Faculty member to deflect criticism for not being diverse enough. Charles Fried who was on the committee who hired her, and Warren both deny that she claimed to be Cherokee when hired." That's the story in a nutshell. It's not only boring and time, it's ancient history. I have no idea what kind of media eagerly runs off a story like this.

              This sort of thing is so obscure that even with the headlines I can't imagine voters caring at all.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:23:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  It is basically the same as last month (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, DCCyclone, askew

            And it barely made a dent in confidence or the political situation. The only change being they actually revised the number for March up to 150k which is probably what they'll do with this report too.

            "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

            by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:17:30 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  What economics background do you have... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, askew, ArkDem14

            ...to say that?

            I've never sees actual economists saying or writing there's any strong relationship between a jobs report for one month helping or hurting consumer spending the next month.

            Consumer spending is based on a couple hundred million individual decisions based on those individuals' personal and family financial condition.  No one spends more or less based on anything in the news.  They base that on their expectations on their own personal near-term and medium-term employment and compensation.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:27:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks for the dose of reality (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Pinto Pony, ArkDem14, itskevin, askew

          The US economy is still moving in the right direction.

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          The only questions are a) how do we prevent the negative narrative from taking over the news and b) how do we prevent Republicans in Congress from doing what they can to strangle what growth we have?

      •  The Dow will not plunge today and (7+ / 0-)

        politically one subpar (and far from catastrophic report) that is artificially depressed due to seasonal factors will not has lasting effects on either the economic or political direction of the country.

        Seriously. calm. down. If you let yourself get hysterical over things like this you're likely to spend most of your life in hysterics.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:56:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Futures indicate modest declines (5+ / 0-)

          (along the lines of 75 points or so) which is about what you'd expect from a subpar but not catastrophic report in the face of fluky seasonal factors which give reason to doubt the validity of the numbers.

          A "plunge" would be something in the range of 200-400 points which has occurred several times over the last few months when something occurs in Europe to give the market doubts that the crisis won't plunge into oblivion in the near future. The response to today's report won't be anything like that. People working in the markets will be dissapointed, but far from hysterical. The only hysterics will be in the comments sections of blogs like this one.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:10:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  You're 100% wrong on this (6+ / 0-)

        The unemployment rate is THE endgame to most voters.  All else is just confusing noise.

        And unemployment fell.  Again.  Now to 8.1.

        At some point pundits and some of you political junkies will realize this.  Jobs numbers are yards gained and first downs earned, but a dip in the official unemployment rate is a touchdown and all that really matters.

        And it doesn't matter politically if people are "leaving the labor force."  Most voters don't care about people leaving the labor force.  America is an unforgiving culture toward people who stop looking for work.  Besides that, the U6 rate which includes many discouraged and underemployed workers held steady, it didn't rise, after having fell big the month before.  So there's not any real rise in people giving up.  People are leaving the labor force for other reasons, perhaps retirement or leaving the country (as undocumenteds are doing somewhat) or whatnot.

        The last two months' data politically are entirely good for Obama and Democrats.  The only way they're "bad" is if they're an illusion with dipped jobs numbers now signaling an unemployment rise coming later.  But there's no sign an unemployment rise is coming, and in fact the drops the last two months were completely unexpected.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:32:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm ready to say if unemployment falls below 8% (7+ / 0-)

          and ticks down slowly (e.g. 7.9% by Aug, 7.8% by Oct., seasonal bumps aside), President Obama is quite likely to win re-election.

          It's the old $7.99 deal. Anything below 8%, and people will be convinced that things are getting better. In older trite terms, voters will hesitate to "change horses mid-stream".

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:42:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, I was just about to say that. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, tietack, itskevin, askew

            "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

            by KingofSpades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:43:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yup (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, tietack, itskevin, askew

            That's why I marvel at all the nonsensical doom and gloom these past couple reports.  For all the handwringing, unemployment dropped each time.  And each time completely unexpectedly.

            It's perfectly fair and frankly necessary for economists and others to go down the rabbit hole and explore the data on shrinking labor force.  Maybe there's something that we need to really worry about there, and it signals bad months ahead in the unemployment rate trend.

            But that seems increasingly unlikely every month with the official rate dropping.  The fact is, there are fewer people who want to work but aren't.

            Politically, "labor force participation rate" is gibberish, as are most other economic data terms.

            Unemployment is falling, that's what people understand.  

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:21:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  You know at first I thought (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, HoosierD42

        you were joking and making fun of yourself, because your terms just seemed so pessimistic and over the top.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:47:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Oh noz!!! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        We're DOOMED I tell you.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:29:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I can't tell (0+ / 0-)

        If you're being serious here or not.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:34:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Upward revisions for February and March (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, bear83, Theston, itskevin, TofG, askew

      Could be worse. Hopefully, the weekly claims yesterday mean a better May.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:43:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why does it seem they're always revised up? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, bear83

        Gain reflected loss of 15,000 government jobs.  Which should make the Republicans happy.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:47:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  May starts (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        the summer hiring, so it's pretty crucial, and I believe after the warm winter and strong economic growth then, that spring was then weakened. Many of the other indicators in the recent reports show that May and June could very likely turn into strong months barring any outside shocks.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:51:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  seasonal pattern (0+ / 0-)

          The April number was artificially depressed (and Jan and Feb artificially pumped up) by the mild winter, especially in construction and restaurants/hotels.

          Going forward I would expect maybe 100-200k per month for most of the rest of this year. It's averaged 200k for the past 4 months but this is too high for a GDP growth rate in the mid-2s.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:26:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Only Headline matters (1+ / 1-)
        Recommended by:
        Pinto Pony
        Hidden by:
        DCCyclone

        The headline is 115, 000 and that's all that will be played all weekend.  The upward revisions for the last two months will not be mentioned, and neither will the rate drop.  This will hurt Obama, and the Democrtas have to keep saying that the last time we had Bush-Romney economics, we lost 750, 000 jobs that month and do we want to go back to that?  Romney's economic plans have to be tied to Bush's like an anvil, and hammered home again and again.

        •  The rate drop is part of that headline (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, ArkDem14, itskevin, askew

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

          by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:25:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Halperin (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            M Riles, itskevin, DCCyclone, askew

            It is his headline.

            http://thepage.time.com/...

            "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

            by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:29:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  The rate drop is THE headline that matters (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, itskevin, TofG, askew

            As I've said in other comments in this thead and at other times in recent months, the unemployment rate is the one economic data point most people understand.

            All else is noise.

            The focus of news coverage also matters, and in that vein it can hurt a little if this is spun as bad news, but ultimately it's hard to spin continuing decline in unemployment as bad news that people will swallow.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:44:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, but the media is now focused more on the (0+ / 0-)

              jobs gained or lost number that it used.  Back in the 70s and 80s the rate figure was everything.

              "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

              by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:46:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Voters are not (0+ / 0-)

                There's zero evidence voters are focused on anything but the unemployment rate.  We're a month removed from the supposedly "bad" March report, and yet Obama's standing is the strongest it's been in years.

                You're right that the media focus has shifted from what I remember in recessions past.  I don't remember jobs numbers being given so much play, I remember the unemployment rate getting the attention.

                But that doesn't mean the public follows the media.

                I repeat what I said in another comment, is everyone here going to say the sky is falling in a couple months if we've had two more "bad" jobs reports and yet unemployment has dropped a tick each month, to 7.9?

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:30:45 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Didn't hurt last month (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, ArkDem14, itskevin, askew

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:25:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  For a very good reason, that being... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, SaoMagnifico, itskevin, askew

            ...unemployment fell.

            And now it fell again.  Now to 8.1.

            If we have 110K jobs in May and the rate drops to 8.0, will people here still say the sky the falling?

            If we have another 110K jobs in June and the rate drops to 7.9, will people here still say the sky the falling?

            At some point these hysterics have to stop.

            The headline is the unemployment rate, that's what the general public absorbs.  People have a frame of reference for that.  They know 4, 5, or 6 is pretty good.  They know 10 is really bad, anything higher is horrible.  They know 9 is pretty bad.  In between those obvious "good" and obvious "bad" figures is "meh."

            Almost no one has any frame of reference for any other economic data points.

            The unemployment rate is the endgame, the points on the scoreboard.  It's the end, and all else including jobs totals are just means to the end.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:38:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I doubt May will be that weak (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32

              Though to be honest I expected April's numbers to be in the 150,000 range.

              But May should start the summer season, and the other monthly economic data I've seen lately indicate it should be a strong month. I'm almost confident enough to bet my reputation on a May month in the 170-210k range.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:43:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It probably was 150 (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, itskevin

                They low-ball every month and have to revise up. Same with the weekly claims.

                "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:46:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  maybe (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin

                  If I had to bet I would guess that this month's number will be revised up next month, but probably not all the way to 150. Transportation was down 17k in April for no apparent reason, so that would be a good bet to either be revised up for April or bounce back in May.

                  SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                  by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:28:57 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I think the monthly numbers track pretty well (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin

                with initial claims.

                If we see a continued drop like yesterday, I think the summer numbers will be better than the last two months.

                •  Yeah they were up last month (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jj32, ArkDem14, itskevin, DCCyclone

                  So this report makes sense in relation to that. It was March that was odd since the initial claims were at four year lows. Does suggest the seasonal adjustment argument holds some weight.

                  "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                  by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:21:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  True (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin, DCCyclone

                    I think that's why the revisions are important. It could be that the March number, after next month's revision, is much better than people thought.

                    Politically, I think this trend is okay for Obama. If we see 100k+ job growth every month until Nov, and the rate falls under 8%, I think Obama wins. A continued trend of falling gas prices helps as well.

        •  Since I'm plenty confident you're a troll... (0+ / 0-)

          ...I've gone ahead and hide-rated you.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:33:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Dudedad from a few days ago: (8+ / 0-)
          Most forecasters expect 165, 000 new jobs this month with a bump in the rate up to 8.3% which is all that will be focused on by the media, which is more much anti-Obama than in 2008.
          http://www.dailykos.com/...

          And now:

          The headline is 115, 000 and that's all that will be played all weekend.  The upward revisions for the last two months will not be mentioned, and neither will the rate drop.
          Did you just change your mind during the week or are you purposely trying to fit the data to your narrative?
    •  The upward revisions of Feb. and March (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, DCCyclone, itskevin, askew, sacman701

      are good,

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:17:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  8 straight months (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, DCCyclone, askew

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:33:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, not bad, imo (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, SaoMagnifico, itskevin, askew

      As others have mentioned the revisions to the past two months were good.

      And politically, the rate falling is good.

      Not a bad report for April, particularly given the increase in unemployment claims for the month. With yesterday hopefully, that is a sign of Easter holiday related seasonality that has ended now.

    •  Just and FYI that is meant to be friendly (0+ / 0-)

      I'm honestly tempted to hide rate your comment because it opens up a whole string of discussion that has little to do with the excellent material David and crew have provided in this diary.  I think we owe them better for their constant, excellent work.  Perhaps you meant this for MB's diary...

      I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

      by Satya1 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:41:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  David and the DKE team does excellent -- and they (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, Satya1, sapelcovits

        encourage our discussion of things like unemployment, given their meta-effects on the election.

        From our days at SSP, such threads have always been open to such topics.

        While you've prefaced your comment with the word "friendly," I don't see it in your second message in this diary's comments section -- which sounds more like a warning.

        I suggest that you pay more attention to the customs and practices on the DKE subsite before making such assertions.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:53:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If you're correct I apologize (0+ / 0-)

          but you also have to give me some slack since guidelines are mute on what I'm bringing up and many places where guidelines are needed are notoriously absent.  So I'll take your advice:

          I suggest that you pay more attention to the customs and practices on the DKE subsite before making such assertions.
          But I'll continue to point out how unfocused this place is at times.

          I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

          by Satya1 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:58:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I'm getting pretty impatient (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, bear83, Pinto Pony, askew

    With Reporters who peddle horrible punditry on a national stage.

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    In part, the Democrats are victims of their success. Senators serve for six years, and largely as a result of their 2006 sweep, 23 of the 33 seats in this fall’s election are in Democratic hands (or in the case of retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, independents who vote with Democrats in choosing the majority leader).

    The current Democratic edge in the Senate is six seats, down sharply from the 20 seat-majority during the first year of the Obama presidency. Lists of competitive Senate races show more than twice as many Democratic seats at risk.

    It’s not hard to see Republicans netting the three seats they need to assume power, with larger gains within the range of possibility. The GOP needs four to take control if Obama is re-elected, since Vice President Joe Biden would break a 50-50 tie in the chamber, as Vice President Dick Cheney did in 2001. (More detail on individual Senate contests below).

    The House picture is clearer, though Republican Speaker John Boehner caused a stir not long ago when he told Fox News there was “a one in three chance” his party could lose the House. That comment may have had more to do with prodding reluctant Republican donors, and guarding against complacency, than with any big shift in the November outlook.

    At the moment, a modest Democratic pickup of fewer than 10 House seats seems the likeliest outcome — well short of the 25 needed to knock the Republicans from power. That’s essentially the conclusion of Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg, respected non-partisan analysts and friendly competitors who actually look at congressional elections on a race-by-race basis (and whose handicapping forms the basis for much of this report.)

    First, this journalist mistakes a larger playing field for the Democrats having an enormous natural disadvantage. NY, MD, RI, DE, VT, MN, CA, PA, and WA aren't competitive at all. WV, NM, HA, CT, NJ, MI, and increasingly FL, are only slightly competitive. So of the Democrats "Difficult to defend 23 Senate Seats" 16 aren't even competitive; geography naturally favors Democrats in this election year's set up.

    In a later spot he calls North Dakota a pick up for Republicans; which implies he's not familiar with the one-sided thus far polling and the extremely strong Democrat running against the unpopular Rick Berg, (again, this is just summarizing what polling has shown).

    But enough of that, in the remaining Democratic Senate seats we have Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Wisconsin, (North Dakota already mentioned), Nebraska, and Virginia. In polling Virginia and Missouri are pure toss ups. Virginia is a good bit bluer than Missouri, but McCaskill has the advantages of incumbency and a considerably weaker field of Republican opponents than does Tim Kaine. Montana is still a toss up, but if pressed, I would have to say current information suggests a very narrow Tester reelection, based not only on PPP, but on impressions I've taken from Rehberg's tepid campaign and favorables. Ohio is here because Republicans have made Sherrod Brown the center point of their electoral strategy; however he has consistently led by double digits in early polling despite several million in early attacks plastered against him, and State Treasurer Josh Mandel, aside from fundraising, seems totally unprepared for the prime time against one of the Senate's most seasoned politicians and tenacious campaigners. The data current available suggests a clear lead for Brown, (none of this is to say that things can't change). Wisconsin has an important primary to decide first, which will make the difference between "leans Democratic" and "Pure toss up", while Nebraska is the one state the leans Republicans, though Democrats have 9/11 Commission member, and former NE Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey as their candidate and he definitely keeps it competitive.

    So, among those 7 Democratic seats, I would lean three to the Democrats based on the electoral factors and information that are available. 1 leans Republican. The other three (if Tommy Thompson's limpid campaign even makes it out of the invigorated conservative primary), are pure toss ups where the factors leave no way to declare one candidate the winner or loser.

    Note the LA Times declares "with larger gains than 3 seats within the range of possibility." So, to speak such speculative quatsch (as the lovely German word goes), at this point first implies that Republicans will sweep all 3 of the pure toss ups, which you wouldn't imagine happening in a non-wave year, which 2012 is not shaping up to be.

    But wait, Republicans also, gasp, have vulnerable seats open! There is Scott Brown in MA-SEN, who has been narrowly behind Warren in the polls, and this ultra-competitive race likely leans just barely to the Democrat when coattails are considered (Obama will get 60-64% of the vote here). There is Maine where independent Angus King is romping all over the scrabble of conservatives running for the Republican nomination, (and King either caucuses with the Democrats or he caucuses with no one, either way it is a Republican loss). Depending on whether Senator Lugar scores an upset (at this point) in his primary in Indiana, this seat could also go straight into toss up category, where it would join Nevada where appointed Senator Dean Heller is in the fight for his life against the state's blue tilt and the turnout machine of the OFA and Reid Machine, which needless to say are behind Las Vegas Rep Shelley Berkley. Arizona is also competitive, but lean R at this point.

    The problem is with the LA Time's phrasing; throwing out a phrase like within the range of possibility with no modifier is speculatively suggesting that it's somewhat likely, when a 4 seat gain by Republicans in the Senate is, given current data and observations based on the current playing field, utterly improbable. Republicans would need to sweep all three Democratic toss ups, while holding all three toss up seats of their own (considering IN, and grudgingly MA here), meaning that for this to happen Republicans need everything to align for them and win every difficult race on the field.

    But at the moment, both sides have four truly competitive races, and both sides are likely to lose one of those 4 competitive races (NE and ME). The problem with Times article is a larger problem in my mind of irresponsible journalism done by people whose knowledge lies mostly with news and policy (and I'm being exceedingly charitable in that characterization), who substitute speculation and econometric nonsense for actual data and information, and therefore offer poor and skewed reflections of how the Senate might fall. To say nothing of his incomprehensible math with regards to Democrats having only a 10 seat pick up in the House, (I'll get to that later, as this comment is long enough as it is).

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:42:29 AM PDT

    •  Dadgum, what do you expect? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      I mean really, how do you expect a political reporter to know about all these Senate races? Do you expect them to read Daily Kos and actually learn something?

      It's far easier (and lazier) to just focus on 23 of 33 blah blah blah.

      •  The sad thing is that (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, JGibson, bumiputera, askew

        favorite beltway pundits like Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook are even engaging in this sort of speculative behavior, topped with silly econometrics. They're electoral pundits; they should take a page out of the one guy who has put them to shame, Nate Silver, and actually start following electoral data and at least try to remove their structural biases. It is irresponsible to speculate that things are going to get better for Republicans and/or just ignore data to the contrary of what you're saying because of your opinion about how competitive a race is (which Crystal Ball's media director recently did to me when I questioned Arizona's 'Safe Republican' status compared to Wisconsin's 'Lean Democratic', positing polling and the Obama campaigns voter registration drive).

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:18:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Don't forget AZ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      In all that you barely mentioned AZ where Carmona is 4% behind in the latest poll.

      Here's the reality that nobody mentions other than you me and a few others.  Of all the senate seats only NE, MT, MO, ND, WI and VA are in any real danger of flipping.  Of those the Dems have good shots of keeping all but NE.  Plus, Obama is organizing in just about all those states which means those Senate candidates will have the GOTV machines of Obama and the various Dems organizations and unions to help.  Kaine is up in VA, Tester in MT and McCaskill in MO.  WI will be ours because of the hatred of the GOP and the strong union GOTV presence there and the fact that Thompson is weak sauce.  ND will be close but I have hope because of the Native American population.  Obama has done alot for them and they will be a GOTV target.  In a small state like ND that's enough to help if not put Obama over the top at least help our Dem candidate for Senate win.    Heitkamp is a good candidate.

      I don't consider OH competitive.  Between Brown's good polling, Mandel's poor polling and Kasich hatred and union presence it'll be easier than many are making it out to be.    

      So out of the 6 really competitive Dem held seats only 1 is lost and the GOP will only likely be able to flip maybe 3 TOPS.  Which means overlooking everything else right now, Biden is tiebreaker.

      HOWEVER, the GOP as you said has a few endangered seats as well.  MA, ME, NV and AZ.  All 4 of those are in serious danger of flipping the Dem way.  My dark horse is AZ.  Carmona is polling in GOP friendly polls 4% behind Flake.  The Obama campaign is going into that state.  The Hispanics are pushing to register voters at a break neck pace and with SB 1070 the Hispanic population of Arizona is angry and primed to make their voices heard.  This may be the first step in turning AZ solid blue ala CA.  Between the Obama campaign and the various groups looking to register and GOTV the Hispanic vote that could make the difference.  

      IN 2006 Kyl won by 150,000 votes.  McLame won by 400,000 in a GOP wave year against a weak candidate.  Hispanics make up almost 30% of total population in Arizona and minorities make up about 43% of total population.  They have roughly 6.5 million people total.  A 200,000 voted difference among a group of people who historically have turned out in lower numbers to vote is not as difficult as it sounds.  

      So when all is said and done the Pundits are idiots.  Sure the Dems have 6 seats endangered but the GOP has 4 that are as well and we haven't even mentioned IN if Lugar gets teabagged.  

      Right now, the Dems are in better position to hold the Senate and as time goes by I suspect they'll be pulling resources from some of the Dem held seats like VA or WI to protect the GOP held seats like AZ and NV.  If that happens the Dems could be looking to make some gains not losses.  Wouldn't it be something if come next year the Dems have 55 senators and Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman and Kent Conrad are gone and replaced by the likes of Tammy Baldwin, Chris Murphy and Elizabeth Warren?  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:04:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  When Lugar gets teabagged (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:10:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  When Lugar gets teabagged (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, Seph Tanner

          that means there will be 6 Dem held seats that are competitive vs 5 GOP held seats that are competitive.  

          The GOP right now are in as much if not more danger of losing 3 seats than they are of picking up 3 seats.  With Indiana thrown in the mix it means they now have to play defense in 1 more state, BTW a state Obama won and is campaigning in again.  If this turns out to be a Dem wave year we could very well see the GOP abandoning campaigns in Dem held states and circling their wagons around Murdoch, Heller, Flake and/or Brown (forget Maine it's gone).  It would be absolutely devastating to them if they lost the White House which many are predicting anyway and lost an additional 3 or so seats in the Senate in traditionally GOP held seats, not to mention the House as well.  I mean Indiana has been held by Lugar for 36 fucking years!!! Nevada?  Arizona?  Maine?  These seats have ALL been held by the GOP for at least 12 years.  

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:23:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  what if Warner did run for governor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoGoGoEverton

    Wouldn't McDonnell get to name his replacement 5 seconds before he is sworn in? I think Warner would be happier as a governor than a senator and he is unbeatable in Va.
    Be a great VP candidate in 2016, He would guarentee Va for the democrats.

    •  Perriello would be more progressive as (0+ / 0-)

      a leader, but I like Mark Warner a lot and probably would support him in a primary because of how successfully he polls against the Repukes. Warner has a gravitas that Kaine and the likely candidates lack, so you're right he's a very strong governor/vice-president candidate.

      •  Perriello unseated the odious Virgil Goode (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, GoGoGoEverton

        a thoroughly entrenched GOP "yes" man.  Tom was only beat due to the national leadership's apathy when he had to face a very well-funded teabagger.

        He is an extraordinarily good campaigner and earned begrudging respect from republicans while in office.

        I think his chances are understated and is polling low only due to lack of name recognition outside of the 5th district.

        "Hey Joe Walsh, when did you stop deadbeating your wife?"

        by wretchedhive on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:23:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Name recognition is huge though. (0+ / 0-)

          Why do you think the chances are understated when you admit he still has a name recognition issue? He's also based west of Richmond/NOVA which is never helpful.

        •  Obama actually campaigned for Tom P. (0+ / 0-)

          In 2010. I assume you mean the DCCC when you say " the leadership", and you're not wrong, but we didn't give up entirely.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:40:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  true, sorry, I wasn't specific enough (0+ / 0-)

            I'm not saying he got thrown under the bus, but the DtripleC did not exert a full court press.

            It was heartbreaking to see this unknown teabagger come in, pull the typical rethuglican type of shit and then disappear after winning.

            Tom did more townhalls than any congressman in the country and was more than accesible to constituants, no matter their party affiliation.

            "Hey Joe Walsh, when did you stop deadbeating your wife?"

            by wretchedhive on Sat May 05, 2012 at 10:49:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-09 (0+ / 0-)

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:16:26 AM PDT

    •  Too bad he wasn't a party player (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo

      in Ohio Rep Austria just retired rather than primary a fellow Republican. George Miller too moved over to a difficult district to escape a heated intra-party race. He should have run against Garrett, the district was essentially 50-50 and Scott Garrett is one of the most outspoken conservatives in the House, one of those conservatives who think Paul Ryan isn't conservative enough, and who has a history of controversial votes and statements that should have made him a preemptive target.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:32:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Are we really (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        having this debate again?

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:34:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not really (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Paleo

          It's just Rothman's decision looks particularly callous now that every other recruitment effort there has ended in failure. While he represented more of Pascrell's district, he still had a strong base in a quarter of Garrett's district, which also contained a lot of new voters for Garrett, and again, Scott Garrett is like Michelle Bachmann without as much media coverage; had Rothman taken a bullet for the team and the party, he would have been no less than even money for this swingish district.

          And guess what, it still seems like he's relatively even money in the congressional primary; it only made things a little easier for him and mainly serves as the second biggest waste of Democratic resources behind the Berman-Sherman race.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:39:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Discussion of this topic has been deemed verbotten (0+ / 0-)

            by the powers that be.  Even though our field in the 5th is now totally pathetic.  Your posts are spot on.

            "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

            by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:45:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oh, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Audrid

              I didn't realize because I so often avoid the pie fights and pissing matches, and don't even bother reading what they are about.

              Okay then. No more. As you were.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:51:36 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  it "seems like" he's even money? (0+ / 0-)

            what polls have you seen? My impression is that he's going to clean up in not only Bergen and Hudson, but also Hawthorne and maybe even Passaic (city) in Passaic Co. as well. Passaic Co. is having more new voters register which is good for Pascrell, but I think a big, heavily minority city like Paterson is naturally at a turnout disadvantage vis-a-vis wealthy, heavily Jewish suburbs like Englewood and Tenafly. So if Pascrell is keeping this a 50-50 race, well, I sure as hell ain't seeing it.

            And as David has pointed out many times before, Pascrell actually represents more of the new 11th than Rothman does the new 5th.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:46:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I haven't seen any polls (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              But I haven't seen any evidence that Rothman is "cleaning up."

              If anyone has a better ground game, it's Pascrell.

              "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

              by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:50:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And I acknowledged that... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                w/r/t the better registration numbers in Passaic Co. But I think Rothman's areas will have better turnout, even with NJ's closed primary. And I haven't seen any evidence that Pascrell is making inroads into Kearny or Secaucus, let alone Bergen County.

                22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:53:21 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I'm well aware of that (0+ / 0-)

              Which is why I phrased it like I did "Taking the bullet" "Being a a party player" etc. Unlike Pascrell, Rothman simply did have a readily available alternative and choose not to take it.

              I also noted he's favored slightly, but it's still a very competitive race and it didn't really help Rothman out that much. I think Rothman though a liberal, would have been an excellent candidate against Garrett, and it would have been great to see a guy who voted against Hurricane aid to Katrina victims and New Orleans, voted out of the House (along with Steve King).

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:01:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I agree that (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, bumiputera, jncca

                it would be great to see Scott Garrett out of the house, but you might as well blame Connie Wagner or Bob Gordon for not running. Unlike Rothman they have recent experience in a tough election and it would be a free shot for them. Plus they're actually based politically in their respective hometowns, unlike Rothman (a former Englewood mayor living in Fair Lawn).

                22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:10:11 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  18% would vote for Tareq Salahi? Seriously? WTF??? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ralpheelou, walja

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:29:10 AM PDT

  •  Tom Perriello (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoGoGoEverton, VA6thDem

    Mark Warner isn't running, so this has to be our guy.

    Fox News: Can't. Deal. With. The. Blathering.

    by pmcmscot on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:36:50 AM PDT

    •  It will probably be Chap Peterson (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      who's fine I guess. Like McAuliffe he'd probably run a competent campaign. But unlike McAuliffe he wouldn't have to worry about the carpetbagger or party hack charge.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:49:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd like Perriello (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoGoGoEverton, HoosierD42

        to run for AG. And I fear McAuliffe has essentially bought the race at this point, with all the years of extra planning and his national fundraising network.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:58:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe Chap Peterson could be (0+ / 0-)

        the appointee to Senate if Warner runs and wins (definitely thinking too far ahead).

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:27:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Do you have inside info on Warner? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      If not, your categorical statement is poorly-informed.

      It's very public common knowledge that Warner is seriously thinking about it.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:36:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope so... (0+ / 0-)

      Warner, by kissing Simpson and Bowles' ass and his "Gang of Six" escapades has proven his blue-dog street cred.

      "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

      by VA6thDem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:52:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I hate living here sometimes.. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, GoGoGoEverton, Diana in NoVa

    Ken Cuccinelli (R): 51
    Bill Bolling (R): 23
    Tareq Salahi (R): 4
    Undecided: 22

    I just wonder how Republicans can take theirselves seriously with promoting these nefarious people.  Cuccinelli is the nuttiest of RWNJs, or has to be at least in the top 10.

    Do not ever look at my Twitter feed! @Ralpheelou

    by Ralpheelou on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:40:38 AM PDT

  •  Oil at $100 a barrel (7+ / 0-)

    Lowest price since February. So much for the panicky Gas is going to $5.00 a gallon Republican talking point (it's $3.65 at my local station).

    •  Not just a GOP talking point cough cough (7+ / 0-)

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:47:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Barring an international war with Iran (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Minnesota Mike, jj32, askew

      and bombing throughout the Hormuz Straight, gas prices are going to remain steady throughout the summer, and probably drop into the 3.20 range during fall. Republicans aren't going to be able to make an issue against Obama with this, especially since voters remember that gas prices were at 4.00 dollars under Bush until the recession came and artificially lowered prices (allowing Republicans to claim that Obama's policies have made gas prices almost double!).

      I never thought it was fair or appropriate for Democrats to try to tie high gas prices as an albatross around Bush's neck either. The U.S. President can't control global supply and demand nor geopolitics across the globe. Any policies, including more offshore drilling, are solutions that offer results years in the future, the same with attempts to grow green energy and provide other, cheaper sources of energy supply.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:56:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I do think oil prices could spike (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        if the talks with Iran go off track. The next meeting is May 23. Seems like there is a somewhat positive mood after the first session which may have helped kept oil prices in check.

        But I think they usually peak right around this time every year, so we could see a downward trend.

        You are absolutely right that a president has no control over gas prices, but if they do fall more, I think Obama does benefit from that.

        Substantively, I think it will be better for consumers. Politically, it's one less issue for Romney and the media to criticize Obama about.

  •  NC-09 (R) (5+ / 0-)

    Charlotte Observer rescinds endorsement of Mecklenburg Co. Commissioner Jim Pendergraph after he goes birther. Instead, they give a double-endorsement to State Rep. Ric Killian and former Charlotte Councilmember Edwin Peacock. http://www.charlotteobserver.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:49:31 AM PDT

  •  Terry who? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    "That the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State ..."- Vermont Constitution Chapter 1, Article 16

    by kestrel9000 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:54:07 AM PDT

  •  NC 7: McIntyre won't say if he will support Obama (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoGoGoEverton, sapelcovits

    http://thehill.com/...

    Fortunately for him, he'll have a lot of time to think about when he's out of congress in January.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:03:39 AM PDT

    •  I think McIntyre (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, KingofSpades

      is favored to win reelection.

      I linked an article yesterday from Manchin where he refused to make an endorsement, but Manchin was a lot more positive towards the President and trashed Romney right after saying he wasn't sure how he would vote, so there's that.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:31:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Difference is (0+ / 0-)

        McIntyre is in a state that Obama won last time, and is at least 50-50 to win this time.

        I believe he's a slight underdog in the race.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:36:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, he has a pretty blue dog district (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, KingofSpades

          And he's a good fit for it not to mention his Republican opponents are complete jokes.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:38:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  McIntyre isnt going to lose (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, sapelcovits

      He's incredibly popular in southeastern NC, he's far out raised his opponents who are pretty weak to begin with. David Rouzer is from the wrong part of the district and his name rec sucks.  The other alternative is Ilario Patano who is a war criminal.  McIntyre is the perfect candidate for that seat and all of its dixiecrats.

      •  Yes, thank you for stating that. (0+ / 0-)

        I was a little annoyed when Paleo said that McIntyre's going to lose when he's likely not.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:26:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Will Terry MacAuliffe ever admit that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    he's just not as popular as he imagines?

    his time is past.

    •  Will you admit he's more popular than... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, LordMike

      ...you imagine?

      I'm no particular McAuliffe fan and rolled my eyes at his candidacy 3 years ago, but he's established himself as a serious candidate who clearly has a very plausible path to victory in 2013.

      He runs a textbook-perfect campaign, he can stay on message, and Cuccinelli is a very beatable foe.

      But no doubt Mark Warner makes it a sure thing if he runs, I'm hoping he does.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:35:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hm. The poll doesnt bear that out, friend. (0+ / 0-)

        or didn't you read the diary? He's not as popular as you seem to want him be.

        Mark Warner (D): 53
        Ken Cuccinelli (R): 33
        Undecided: 14

        Mark Warner (D): 53
        Bill Bolling (R): 32
        Undecided: 14

        Mark Warner (D): 58
        Tareq Salahi (R): 19
        Undecided: 23

        Terry McAuliffe (D): 41
        Ken Cuccinelli (R): 36
        Undecided: 23

        Terry McAuliffe (D): 34
        Bill Bolling (R): 36
        Undecided: 30

        He clearly loses 12 points in polling when compared to Warner and runs makes the race a hell of a lot tighter between himself and ANY REPUBLICAN contender. I don't call that popularity. why should I?

        He's a great fundraiser with all the "right connections". And yes, he's a great campaigner. Especially for other people. But for whatever reason, people don't see him the way he apparently sees himself. Or as an elected official. Being a great fundraiser for major national candidates and being an exceptional campaign operative for them doesn't necessarily translate into being an effective legislator or governor. He's never held office. Why doesn't he try for something a bit more "modest" to start off with? He went straight for senator and now governor? He seems to think he IS the Clintons or something. No. He was a high level operative and A+ fundraiser. I have NO IDEA whether he can handle the job of governing or legislating. And apparently, I'm not the only one who thinks "what a minute....maybe not".

        •  Calling someone unpopular (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          because they're not polling as well as Mark Warner is like calling Maine a warm state because it's not as cold as Alaska.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:50:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually I said he's not as popular as he (0+ / 0-)

            Seems to think he is.

            I stand by that statement. What else do you call it when he runs within the MOE against Cucinelli but Warner polls 20 points over Cucinelli AND the "undecided" numbers go up in the exact number that McAuliffe's go down when paired with any of the GOP candidates? The race is a popular vote race. The person with the most voted wins in a state race. But obviously Terrys numbers indicate he's not as popular as Warner. I'm not a fan of Warner. But I'm saying McAuliffe seems to believe, for whatever reason, that his name recognition and deep experience as a high level political operative for very popular presidents, senators and presidential candidates somehow makes him a credible gubernatorial (or senate) candidate. That's a ridiculous assumption and it seems Virginians might think so too.

        •  The numbers prove my point, not yours (0+ / 0-)

          He's up 5 on Cooch, that proves my last point, and no one disputes my first two points about his campaign and messaging skills.

          You implied that McAuliffe is outright unpopular...that's certainly how it sounds when you say "not as popular as he thinks he is."  That comes off as sarcastic.  That is an incorrect assertion.

          If you're actually trying to read his mind, I'd like to know what inside information you claim to have.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:27:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  In VA -- Tom Perriello (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, itskevin, LordMike

    For those not in VA, Tom Perriello is a great guy -- young, charismatic, progressive, wide-appeal, wades in and takes on the wingnuts toe-to-toe.

    He served one term in the House. He was elected by knocking off a long-serving, hardcore rightwinger.  Tom then fell victim to the Tea Party sweep in 2010 -- out-of-state PACs poured in a mountain of money against him,  lied about him, and you know the rest.

    I doubt that he'll run for governor but all us Virginia Democrats are hoping he stays active in state politics

  •  I didn't support McAuliffe last time around, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    now I bloody well wish I had.  Any Democratic candidate would have been better than the person the Dems fielded against Transvaginal!

    Yeah, so McAuliffe isn't perfect, lots of baggage with the Clintons, and bla bla bla.  Tell me he'd be a worse governor than Transvaginal or THE KOOK!  (Excuse me while I faint--sniff--found the smelling salts, I'm back.)

    Crud, I'd even donate to McAuliffe. I hate and loathe and despise phonebanking and going door to door for Obama was one of the less pleasant experiences I've had in my lifetime, so I wouldn't be able to go that far.  But certainly I'd prefer McAuliffe to any of the Rethugs.

    Tom Pierrello is a really nice guy.  Problem with him is that he lacks name recognition in Northern Virginia.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:27:13 AM PDT

    •  It wasn't much of a choice... (0+ / 0-)

      you had McDonnell (R) vs. Creigh Deeds (R-light). Granted, Deeds would never have signed those bills but he was sprinting to the right during the run-up to the election.

      "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

      by VA6thDem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:54:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Challengers outraise GOP incumbents in 1st quarter (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, TofG, KingofSpades, askew

    http://www.cbsnews.com/...

    In Florida's 10th District, former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings raised $331,598 compared to $148,033 for her opponent, Rep. Daniel Webster. She had $482,251 cash on hand at the end of March compared to $390,621 for Webster.

    In New Hampshire's 2nd District, Democratic challenger Ann McClane Kuster outraised Rep. Charlie Bass by about $83,000 and had $1,031,568 cash on hand compared to Bass' $790,416.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:35:32 AM PDT

  •  Good stuff David (0+ / 0-)

    I'm on the look out for a spreadsheet giving all state gov. races and predictions for this year.  Anyone know where I can find something like that?

    By the way, I apologize for our fellow Kossacks who hijacked this diary into an issue that should have been discussed in a different diary.

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:36:51 AM PDT

    •  I'm not sure I understand the question (0+ / 0-)

      but Dave Liep's US Election Atlas allows users (starter accounts are free) to submit predictions for this year's races. So here's the aggregated Gov predictions: http://uselectionatlas.org/... (scroll all the way to the bottom and you'll see small text saying "Most Recent Predictions" click on that to view and comment on individual predictions)

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:39:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A PPP tweet from yesterday evening (0+ / 0-)

    Apologies if this has been covered already, but I thought it highly noteworthy:

    Obama doing very well on the first night of our Iowa poll, think rumors of his demise there are very exaggerated

    •  It was always exaggerated (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      newdem1960

      during the primary Romney had a lead over Obama in NH, because he was on the air hear, and all over the state in person. Once he left Obama recovered and now has a decent lead.

      In Iowa the GOP spent even more money and time trashing the President so the fact he was only down a little over Romney there was to be expected. For a "front runner" Romney wasn't that strong in Iowa, also in the general election a lot of Democratic "surplus talent" from IL can go over there to phone bank and GOTV.

      -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

      by dopper0189 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 01:43:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IN-Senate: Lugar is sinking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dopper0189

    Mourdock appears to be kicking Dick Lugar's ass in the polls. Club for Growth has been saturating us with anti-Lugar ads. This is shaping-up to be Lugar's swan-song.

    In other races in the state, the hard-right "true conservative" candidates appear to be getting a huge flood of out-of-state cash for media buys. Endorsements by Indiana Right to Life and the Indiana Chamber of Commerce have been featured prominently in many ads for state races.

    Indiana looks to be shaping-up to turn even harder right than it already has.

  •  you should want a *GOP* Governor in VA (0+ / 0-)

    In the last 9 electoral cycles, Virginia has elected a Governor of the party the President isn't.  Yep, ever since 1976 (Jimmy Carter, D) and 1977 (John N. Dalton, R).  Every single time.

    Thus, if form holds, wishing for a Democrat in Richmond implies Mittens in DC.

    Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. -- K.Marx A.Lincoln

    by N in Seattle on Fri May 04, 2012 at 01:38:23 PM PDT

  •  Rand is laying the ground to run in 2016 (0+ / 0-)

    being more "establishment" than his father, but also throwing "red meat" to the base.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 01:40:00 PM PDT

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