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Leading Off:

AZ-08: That new DCCC ad clearly did the trick, because Republican Jesse Kelly has now decided it's better to be known as a craven flip-flopper rather than a dystopian wrecker. You'll recall that the D-Trip slammed Kelly for statements he made when he ran for this seat last cycle, particularly his desire to see Social Security and Medicare "eliminated." Now Kelly's reversed course and has updated his website to say: "I support preserving, protecting and strengthening Social Security and Medicare. I do not support privatizing, eliminating or phasing out these programs in any way." Amusingly (and helpfully), Kelly's campaign is nevertheless denying that there's "been any change of position," which deprives Kelly of the chance to at least make a clean break with the past. In other words, this anvil is still tied as firmly around his neck as ever.


FL-Sen: Nice way to blow your credibility right on day one: Freedom PAC (I'm surprised that name wasn't taken already), a super PAC aimed at bolstering the candidacy of GOP Rep. Connie Mack, told media organizations a few days ago that it was running its first ad, attacking Dem Sen. Nelson. But now both Democratic and Republican trackers say there's no evidence that the group has made any buy whatsoever, and to make matters worse, a spokesman for the group "could not say when" the ad would appear on television. Pathetic.

IN-Sen: Seems like that's all she wrote for Dick Lugar: Howey Politics' final poll just ahead of Tuesday's primary shows Lugar trailing Richard Mourdock 48-38 among Republican primary voters. That's a devastating, but not at all unexpected, drop for Lugar from Howey's late March survey, which had him up, but precariously so, at 42-35. You'd think that if Lugar had some better numbers of his own, he'd have shown them to us by now, no? Click the link for our full analysis of all the data, including a look at each side's closing ads.

MA-Sen: So that new Elizabeth Warren ad, the one featuring Barack Obama extensively praising her? She's adding another $800K to the buy, which the New York Times says brings her television spending to a monster $1.6 mil since April 23. GOP Sen. Scott Brown is not on TV, though he has been running radio ads.

MO-Sen: Missouri's junior senator, GOPer Roy Blunt, says he won't make an endorsement in the race against his senior counterpart, Claire McCaskill. Three Republicans are vying to take her on: Rep. Todd Akin, ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and rich guy John Brunner.

NE-Sen: Jon Bruning, who either has the GOP nomination well-in-hand or is threatened for the nod by Don Stenberg, depending on whose views (and polling) you believe, is going with the former rather than the latter. His newest ad is a pivot toward the general election, featuring an attack on Bob Kerrey and Barack Obama. You can watch at the link.

VA-Sen: Though the Majority PAC is a Democratic-aligned group, and though they're airing a new ad on behalf of Tim Kaine (a Democrat), you'd be forgiven for thinking this was a pro-Republican ad and George Allen was the Dem. They hit Allen for increasing spending as governor, and for supporting earmarks and increasing the debt as senator. Meanwhile, they praise Kaine for cutting spending as governor and eliminating the state tax. Confusing! (Also: Thanks to IE reports, we know that the size of the buy is $215K.) You can watch at the link or below:


AZ-09: Some very ugly campaign mailers Democrat Andrei Cherny published when he ran for state Assembly in California a decade ago are coming back to haunt him in his race for Congress in Arizona. Both of Cherny's primary opponents, Kyrsten Sinema and David Schapira, have recently made an issue of them, but rather than admit he made a big mistake years ago, Cherny's defending himself, which seems like a very bad move. The Arizona Republic has the full details on the backstory, and I encourage you to read it, but let me just reproduce one of the fliers so that you can get a sense of what I'm talking about:

Andrei Cherny (D) mailer from 2002 California Assembly race, featuring side-by-side pictures of his primary opponent, Lloyd Levine, and an African-American gang member pointing a gun; text: 'Gangs, graffiti, rapists & thugs. Our streets aren't safe with Lloyd Levine'
That was just one of them. There were at least two others:
The mailers insinuated that Cherny's Democratic opponent, Lloyd Levine, was pro-life and soft on crime, according to news reports from 10 years ago and a copy of a mailer obtained by The Republic. Two mailers tied Levine to an assemblyman "from South Central" Los Angeles who voted against bills on contraception coverage and gun control.
In response, Cherny lost a whole host of endorsements from prominent Democrats, and then went on to lose the race by double digits. Today, he still maintains the mailers "were accurate" and accuses his opponents of practicing "an ugly kind of politics" by trying to make hay of them. Now that's chutzpah.

CA-26: The House Majority PAC is out with a sizable $140K cable buy, backing an ad supporting Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley. As Roll Call's Kyle Trygstad notes, the ad makes a point of emphasizing Brownley's party affiliation, since there's a risk she might split votes with two other lesser-known Democrats in the race and allow a Republican (Tony Strickland) and an independent ex-Republican (Linda Parks) to sneak through the top-two primary. You can watch the spot at the link.

CA-30: This new ad from the ridiculously-named super PAC that's backing Dem Rep. Howard Berman seems to set a new low in quality—worse, I think, even that that wretched George Maragos ad from the other day. Not only are the production values worse than something you'd see from a local furniture company, but the content is pretty remarkable. The ad actually touts an endorsement for Berman from GOP Rep. Darrell Issa! (Yes, this actually happened, though it's a bit fakey since Issa said he was only doing so because there are no legit Republicans in the race.)

Issa, though, isn't some moderate-ish Republican with crossover appeal—he's a hard-right radical who led the effort to recall Gov. Gray Davis and now acts as President Obama's tormenter-in-chief by ginning up endless bogus "investigations" as chair of the House Oversight Committee. This would be a bit like some outside group running a spot touting Karl Rove's "endorsement" of Howard Dean. And yeah, while I'm sure Berman's backers are trying to squeeze out any Republican votes they can for their guy in this all-party primary, Issa is such an extremist that I can't imagine anyone who is fond of him is all of a sudden going to pull the lever for a Dem on Issa's say-so. Anyhow, watch for yourself—you'll see Issa's mug in the bottom-left corner of the Brady Bunch-style screen that appears 17 seconds in. (P.S. The size of the buy is $81K.)

MI-07: In the end, the weeks-long campaign by the DCCC to lure ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, a moderate Republican, into a rematch against GOP Rep. Tim Walberg under the Democratic banner just didn't pan out. The 74-year-old Schwarz publicly toyed with the idea of running as a Democrat for some time, issuing all sorts of teaser statements and announcement deferrals. But ultimately, he just didn't have the fire in his belly for another bid, citing his distaste for fundraising, the fact that the district lines were redrawn, and his lack of interest in becoming a freshman in Congress yet again as reasons why he pulled the plug. With Michigan's filing deadline of May 15 rapidly approaching, this leaves Democrats with only obscure attorney Kurt Haskell in the race. I'd be surprised if Democrats can recruit a bigger ticket name after this disappointment. (James L)

MN-01: You may recall that the Republican convention in the 1st District—to choose a nominee to take on third-term Dem Rep. Tim Walz—ended in a deadlock, with delegates unable to decide between state Sen. Mike Parry and former state Rep. Allen Quist after 23 rounds of balloting. There was originally talking of holding a second convention, but now those are off: Quist says he doesn't want to wait "for a convention that may not take place," so he's decided to forge ahead to the August 14 primary instead. Parry "quickly followed suit" and says he, too, will run in the primary. This is yet another example of how dumb and undemocratic these kinds of conventions are, though the good news here for Democrats is that the battle between Quist and Parry has already turned nasty—and now we get three more months of it.

MN-02: Former state Rep. Mike Obermueller, who recently received the endorsement of local Democrats at the party's district-wide convention, was just added to the DCCC's "Red to Blue" list. (Two other Democrats who also sought their party's backing at the convention, Northfield City Councilman Patrick Ganey and Dakota County Commissioner Kathleen Gaylord, both deferred to Obermueller after losing the delegate vote and won't force a primary.) Obermueller will take on GOP Rep. John Kline in the redrawn 2nd District, which was made slightly bluer in redistricting.

NM-01: Usually politicians try their hardest to avoid hot air balloons—the imagery is just too fraught. But New Mexico, of course, has tight relationship with ballooning, and as much as it pains me to say this, I think this ad from Democrat Marty Chavez, his first of the race, is actually pretty clever. Have a look at the link or below:

NJ-09: It feels like every political analyst was just waiting for this one to happen, and now here we are: Bill Clinton has endorsed Rep. Bill Pascrell in his member-vs.-member primary fight against fellow Rep. Steve Rothman. I hardly need tell you that Pascrell was a Hillary Clinton supporter and Rothman a backer of Barack Obama, do I?

But Rothman made a good point about Bill Clinton's views on loyalty just a day earlier: Back when Clinton was facing impeachment proceedings over the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Rothman served on the House Judiciary Committee and says he offered a "very strong defense" of the president "day after day and night after night" and "not only in committee, but on a variety of cable news shows." I think it's very strange to see Clinton forsake someone who backed him to the hilt in his hour of greatest need simply because he didn't endorse his wife's presidential bid.

PA-12: This is nice to see: Rep. Jason Altmire, who was just defeated by fellow Rep. Mark Critz in the Democratic primary a couple of weeks ago, is appearing with Critz and other leaders at a rally on Monday. Critz still faces a very tough re-election fight against Republican Keith Rothfus in November.

WA-01: There've been a whole bunch of endorsements from various quarters for the various Democrats running in Washington's 1st District in the past few days, but probably the most notable is from the Communications Workers of America, who decided to back Suzan DelBene. (Interestingly, Darcy Burner herself was once a member of the CWA, according to PubliCola, but I guess that wasn't enough of a difference-maker.)

Grab Bag:

Virginia: If Dem Sen. Mark Warner decides to seek re-election in 2014, he'd start (two-and-a-half years out) with a 51-40 lead over Gov. Bob McDonnell, who is almost certainly the strongest name the GOP could put up against him. PPP also has a bunch of other Virginia miscellany, including a look at whether voters support the state's unique one-term limit for governors. They're against it, actually by a 60-31 margin—though McDonnell's hypothetical re-elects are only 36-51, which might explain his somewhat soft performance against Warner. Meanwhile, Democrats have a hefty 47-38 lead on a generic congressional ballot, but with the state so heavily gerrymandered to benefit Republicans, it will be hard to make any pickups in the Old Dominion this year.

Independent Expenditures:

IN-Sen: Hoosiers For Jobs spends $64K on new mailers attacking Richard Mourdock (R)

VA-Sen: Majority PAC places a $215K TV buy on behalf of Tim Kaine (D) (see VA-Sen item above)

TX-Sen:  The Conservative Renewal Political Action Committee makes a $125K "print ad" buy in support of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R)

CA-01: The Citizens for Prosperity and Good Government dish out $52K for radio ads backing state Sen. Doug LaMalfa (R) for his bid to replace retiring GOP Rep. Wally Herger

CA-26: The House Majority PAC spends $141K on a TV buy backing state Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) in this open seat primary (see CA-26 item above)

CA-30: The Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman makes an $81K media buy in support of Rep. Howard Berman (D) (see CA-30 item above)

IN-05: The Campaign for Primary Accountability drops another $47K on TV and radio ads in support of ex-Rep. David McIntosh (R)

One interesting thing about the VA-Sen filing from Majority PAC is that it also contains a small expenditure in the Indiana Senate race: $9K worth of online ads against Dick Lugar! It seems that we may have some low key rat-fucking going on here. (James L)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon May 07, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Voting starts soon (7+ / 0-)

    ... in New Mexico.  Then we'll know whether Martin Heinrich or Hector Balderas goes up against (presumably) Heather Wilson.  I'm for Heinrich, but can support either one just fine.  I haven't been keeping up on how the primary is polling.  Obama's organization should help for the general in November.

    Grab all the joy you can. (exmearden 8/10/09)

    by Land of Enchantment on Mon May 07, 2012 at 05:11:38 AM PDT

  •  Disagree on that NE-Sen ad (0+ / 0-)

    I don't think it's a pivot towards the general; it hits themes generally appealing to R primary voters, but more crucially for me, if you look at the end, he touts his Tea Party Express endorsement. I don't think that's a general election positive, even in Nebraska (might be wrong, though?)

    Unrelatedly, I made a little thing that those of you interested in elections internationally might want to check out.

    How does homeopathy work? | Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79

    by gabjoh on Mon May 07, 2012 at 05:13:15 AM PDT

  •  NJ-09 (0+ / 0-)

    Maybe Bill Clinton actually thinks the candidate he endorsed would be a better Democratic member of Congress than the other one.

    Romney '12: The Power of Crass Commands You!

    by Rich in PA on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:09:26 AM PDT

  •  New Polling (0+ / 0-)

    Not good news this morning, the GWU/Battleground Poll which had Obama up 10 in March now has him down one, and The USA Today Swing State Poll which had Obama up 9 in March now has him only up 2, this means that the trackers so often derided on this site may be more accurate than we thought.

    Many people think that the economy has stalled, and unless there is some dramatic movement in that regard in the next couple of months, look out, it could be a long Election night.  We all loved Obama's opening pitch this weekend but I still have not heard a rationale for a second term that makes sense.  "Forward" is lame beyond words, forward to what?  What would Obama do differently if he's re-elected?

    •  RE: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      judyms9, ArkDem14, askew

      The Battleground poll, which had him by 9, was in February.  And it has always tended to lean Republican in presidential contests.  Also, the Gallup poll shows that Democrats are now 11 points more "enthusiastic" than Republicans.

      Romney is perceived as better at "managing" the economy.  An attack on his record at Bain would be the best way to neutralize that.  Obama doesn't have to say what he'd do differently, he's the incumbent after all, but point to Obama as a threat to the recovery by bringing back the policies that caused 700,000 jobs lost a month at the time Obama came in.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:28:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Check (0+ / 0-)

        Check real clear, it was March and it was 10

        •  March (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          You're right it was 10, but it was Feb. 19-22.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

          by Paleo on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:33:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  P.S. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          I'd be more concerned if it weren't for the fact that state polls of key states, like Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, PA, OH, continue to look good.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

          by Paleo on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:37:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also GWU uses an LV screen (0+ / 0-)

            and while you could justify doing that once the two nominees are determined, it is still likely to eliminate more dem voters than repub at this point.

            I also haven't found anything to indicate if this poll included cell phones, most non-automated polls do now but that could be worth 2-3 points.

            •  GWU (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Funny how much we loved this particular poll, praised it for its accuracy, and cited it when it had Obama with a 10 point lead, now that it looks not so good, it stinks, it's a Republican-leaning poll, even though a Democrat, Celinda Lake, is involved and we should discount it.
              The other USA today poll shows Obama's lead in the swing states down from 9 to 2, so I guess we'll discount that too.
              It's obvious that something is happening, for now the polling nationally is swinging back toward Romney, and I think that it is jobs, what else could it be?

              As for the state polling, wait until the next round, I think that it will reflect the tightening in the national polling, as Quinnipiac did in Florida and Ohio.  I think we are all waiting for PPP tomorrow and hoping for good new out of Iowa and no change in his weekly tracker.

          •  Obama is winning, natl polls are wrong (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            uclabruin18, ArkDem14, itskevin

            I've made this argument before and am going to keep hammering it forever.

            Only state polls, and other tea leaves on state-level candidate standing, matter.  National polls don't matter.

            OFA was open about it in '08 that they never even polled nationally, they paid for only state polls.  I am assuming the same this time.

            And the state-level information we have, from state polling and reported battleground state information, makes clear Obama is winning and would win convincingly were the election held today.

            Mark Halperin, for once, actually has a good reported piece here, in which he reports Obama's campaign has POTUS ahead right now in Ohio and Virginia.  Politico last week reported the same regarding Virginia, that both parties acknowledged Obama was leading albeit by a smaller margin than last week's public polls.

            And Chuck Todd's and Amy Walter's reported battleground maps, largely the same, make clear POTUS currently is on top in all Kerry states plus New Mexico, with a bunch of Bush states as tossups and Obama holding a likely small edge in Colorado.

            Combine all of the above with public polling showing Obama clearly up by a decent margin in Nevada, and we're left with a map where the only states Obama might not win today from his '08 haul are Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.  And Obama still leads in polling averages of NC and FL, but it's just a lot tighter in those with FL having a few showing Romney up.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon May 07, 2012 at 07:50:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Once again (0+ / 0-)

              The state polls will lag the national polls, check the next round and see where we are, I hope you're right but fear that you're wrong

              •  No, there is no lag, you're making that up (6+ / 0-)

                There's never been any lag.  If there is real movement in national polls, then there is simultaneous movement in swing states.

                And there's no change in national polling anyway, it's all just noise.  There have always been series of polls that have the race tied or Romney a teeny bit ahead, and then they fall away behind newer polls showing Obama up by a decent margin.

                Regarding what you "hope," I'm awfully dubious your hopes resemble mine.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon May 07, 2012 at 08:14:05 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  yep.. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  I think the trackers showed Obama after last weekend down by several points he then rebounded later int he week and actually went back on top by a couple of points late last week.

                  •  Swing States (0+ / 0-)

                    If  the 9 swing states in the USA Today poll went from 9 to 2, there is no way that the state polls in those states will not move in that direction the next time a state poll is done, just as Florida and Ohio both did in the latest polling.

                    •  What? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:

                      If one poll shows something, there is no way that all other polls won't show the same thing? You get the phenomenon of outliers, yes?

                      What a useless discussion. We'll see how the sum of polls move when they come out.

                    •  Those swing states did no such thing (0+ / 0-)

                      That swing state poll is junk.  The poll that had Obama by 9 in the first place was junk.  And the poll now saying 2 points also is worthless.  That they show such wild swings (it was Romney by 1 in December in this junk poll) itself discredits this poll.

                      Polls of individual states are what matter.  These composite polls of states are a meritless gimmick.

                      And swing states aren't showing any such movement away from POTUS.  They slowly moved en masse in Obama's direction during the winter, by small but critical amounts, but that's the only movement that's happened.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Mon May 07, 2012 at 08:51:58 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Junk (0+ / 0-)

                        I looked and I didn't see you calling the poll junk when it had Obama up 9, did you?  Did I miss it?  Obama is going to have a difficult tight race in spite of the fact that Romney is a total joke because of the weakness in the economy and the expectations placed on him that no one could have met, not to mention the racism just below the surface of so much of our culture.  All I want is for people on this site to get a grip and stop parading around like it's over, because it isn't.

                        •  on politico/battleground... (0+ / 0-)

                          It had a makeup of 78% white/22% non-white and 40% R/ 43% D /16% Independent. It also used a LV model and I just don't see how one can use an LV model out this far.

                             That's why I'm skeptical about it. Gallup & Rasmussen seem to show a tendecy of Obama being behind over a weekend but rebounding through the week.

                        •  also... (0+ / 0-)

                           I mean Obama's election numbers are getting worse even when his job approval numbers are getting better?

                        •  You "looked" at what? (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          uclabruin18, David Nir, NMLib, madhaus

                          Not my job to comment on every little thing that happens daily, and I don't.  You want a job in investigative journalism to do pieces on regular blog commenters?  Go send your resume to BuzzFeed.

                          For your part, you've established yourself as, at your best, the least knowledgeable commenter here in recent weeks.  So you shouldn't count on anyone taking seriously your foolish lectures on what you want them to do.

                          For everyone else, these swing state polls have always been junk, and plenty of us here have said so all along.

                          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Mon May 07, 2012 at 09:18:24 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                •  Josh Marshall (0+ / 0-)

                  Please go to TPM, the Set-Up, Josh Marshall, hardly a conservative, is trying to tell you the same thing I just did, maybe you'll listen to him.  This race is much closer than it was two months ago, period.

                  •  Josh knows less than me & many others here (0+ / 0-)

                    Josh isn't an elections junkie, he's incredibly smart and is very good at analyzing candidate behavior and explain what they try to do, but he doesn't follow polling except superficially.  His site still gives junk polls, like this swing state poll and Rasmussen's work, equal treatment with better ones.  They do a lot of things well at TPM, but understanding where a race stands in real time based on polling isn't among them.

                    You are easily the least knowledgeable and least astute regular commenter here in recent weeks, and that's being charitable.

                    For everyone who's interested and hasn't seen the PPP tweets tonight, they said they have Obama doing well in their Ohio and Iowa polls they'll release tomorrow.  So once again, a few national polls are discredited.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Mon May 07, 2012 at 04:51:05 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Okay, I got it (0+ / 0-)

                      The will not to believe is really strong with you.  You have so far dismissed every poll that has been released in the past week, and the word of one of the most knowledgeable people in Washington about the state of race to hold on to one set of polls that suit you, and aren't even out yet. You, sir, have Karl Rove math skills, what is doing well in Ohio, having a smaller lead than last time?  Iowa?  6 EVs, a six or an eight point lead.  Is that solid?

                       I've taught history and politics most of my adult life, which is a lot longer than yours, state polls always lag, period.  So keep holding on.  I'm telling you that this is a dead even race, with Obama holding a narrowing edge in the electoral college, and another bad jobs report could change that.

                    •  Don't feed the troll (n/t) (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      NMLib, DCCyclone, madhaus

                      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Mon May 07, 2012 at 05:28:02 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  And the OP would be more concerned, too (0+ / 0-)

            except he's already reached the upper limit.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon May 07, 2012 at 09:30:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  also... (0+ / 0-)

        That poll has a breakdown of 40% Republicans,43% Democrats and 16% independents. It also polled 78% whites and just 22% non-whites.

    •  You are persistent arnt you (NT) (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, DCCyclone, sapelcovits, itskevin, askew

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:48:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I read the first couple lines and knew it was you (0+ / 0-)

      Not building a very good rep for yourself, dude.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Mon May 07, 2012 at 11:48:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Go to TPM (0+ / 0-)

        When every poll shows the race tightening , it's tightening.  Josh Marshall just said the same thing I did on the Set-Up on TalkingPointsMemo, maybe you'll believe him.  I hate bull shit and wishful thinking, and there is way too much of that on Kos.

        •  Clearly you didn't listen to Marshall (0+ / 0-)


          He notes how President Obama leads in key states.

          There is a lot of Republican wishful thinking going on in the media, and the evidence from your posts suggests that you're buying into it.

          Futhermore, your mischaracterization of what Marshall is saying illustrates the conclusion of so many here at DKE about your purpose here.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Mon May 07, 2012 at 04:55:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You cherry-picked (0+ / 0-)

            Marshall also stated that he expected those key states to narrow in the margins, reflecting the tightening national race, and he needs to see the next round of state polling to confirm Obama's lead.  He also, as I have been saying for weeks, believes that the job numbers are hurting Obama, and if it continues then everything is up for grabs.  I'm 67 with children whose lives have been put on hold by the Bush recession.  I know what's at stake.  We'll go on austerity and head into a depression if Romney wins, that's why I'm worried.

  •  at this time tomorrow (12+ / 0-)

    I will be working at the polls all day for the Wisconsin recall primary.  Wish us luck, hopefully we won't need it.

    The Elections Board is predicting a 30 to 35% turnout statewide tomorrow.  I know I hope to be busy all day because this is Blue territory and the more neighbors who vote the better for Team Blue!

    Forward Cheeseheads!

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:15:50 AM PDT

  •  POTUS: MT 43-41-8 Romney... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MartyM, Dave in AZ

    Public Policy:

    Romney Leads 48-43, BUT Add in Johnson (Libertarian, Official this past weekend..) to the question, and it goes to 43-41-8.

    18-29: 39/39/13/10 Undecided..

  •  I can't stand Jesse Kelly (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MartyM, judyms9, Dave in AZ, askew

    His campaign - dishonest billboards about Giffords - turned Tucson into a tinderbox last time.

    by chloris creator on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:46:07 AM PDT

    •  AZ08 - Kelly "well ahead" of Barber? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, askew

      Buried in a Political Notebook article in this morning's AZ Daily Star is a story about how State Sen. Frank Antenori (who lost to Kelly in the CD8 primary) is deciding whether to file for reelection for the state senate or for CD2 (new CD8). The filing deadline is May 30, before the June 12 special election -

      Antenori said he's collecting signatures for both the new CD2 and a Senate run in Legislative District 10 to cover his bases. He already has enough for CD2, but needs more for the state Senate.

      Collecting signatures for multiple races is legal, but state law prohibits a candidate from running for two different offices on the same ballot if the person would be prohibited from serving in both posts at the same time, said Secretary of State's Office spokesman Matt Roberts.

      That means Antenori must decide by May 30 which ballot he wants to be on. He knows that, and said he'll likely wait another week before making his decision. Right now, he's leaning toward running for the state Senate because he's seen polls that show Kelly is well ahead of Barber and likely to win the special election.

      I highly doubt if Kelly is "well ahead", whoever wins it will be by a close margin. I guess which office he files for will give us an idea of how much he believes whatever polling he has seen.

      PS - I can't stand Kelly either.

      I'll believe corporations are people when Texas executes one!

      by Dave in AZ on Mon May 07, 2012 at 08:03:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Open comment to MSNBC. (6+ / 0-)

    Dear MSNBC,


    Thank you,


    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

    by WisJohn on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:48:47 AM PDT

    •  It is if (4+ / 0-)

      "the election is super-close".

      Which... it's not.

      How does homeopathy work? | Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August | -9, -7.79

      by gabjoh on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:56:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Patiently waiting on PPP (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MartyM, itskevin, askew, supercereal

      to publish their weekend poll results.

    •  Iowa (0+ / 0-)

      They're basing that call on earlier polling, like February, PPP will be out either today or tomorrow and we'll see then

    •  None of the outlets get the landscape (0+ / 0-)

      Iowa voted for Dukakis of all people and Mondale posted one of his better performances there, on par with New York and Pennsylvania. I don't see it as Lean R as the Republicans has only won it once in a neutral cycle in the past 30 years.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon May 07, 2012 at 07:59:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think the distrust of NBC is mistaken (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, itskevin

        They base their view not just on public polling but also talking to people on the ground and on private polling revealed to them.  When they first moved Iowa to lean R, they explicitly said it was based on Iowa Democratic insiders themselves conceding that Obama was down at the time.

        They do good work, and they don't hesitate to move states either way, even if only slightly, when warranted.  I think their last moves of Indiana from likely R to lean R, and Georgia from lean R to likely R, prove that point.  Those moves, in states that aren't really being contested hard, show a level of attention to detail by the NBC political team that is rare in campaign journalism.

        That said, I will trust PPP showing Obama is up now, and in fact I always said Obama eventually would rebound in the state.  But the rating has been reasonable to date.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon May 07, 2012 at 08:21:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you are overally trusting of NBC. (0+ / 0-)

          Chuck Todd is a hack. He has been pushing Romney talking points for ages now.  He hasn't done good work since his promotion.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Mon May 07, 2012 at 01:15:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The Doomers were wrong on Greece/France (7+ / 0-)

    In the weekend open thread, several of us were concerned about the effects of yesterday's elections in Greece and France.

    Some believe that a move away from conservative austerity would lead to concerns about defaults in the markets, with ancillary negative effects on President Obama's re-election campaign.

    There was talk about a 400 point drop in the Dow, along with lower economic growth. (Yes, I joined in that a bit, but said it would be temporary.)

    Well the Dow is down 24 points in early morning trading. Not even a buying opportunity.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Mon May 07, 2012 at 06:50:35 AM PDT

  •  The Berman Ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    General Goose, madhaus

    The real horror in production values is that he uses Comic Sans (font) for Break the Gridlock towards the end. I haven't even seen Blue Dogs stoop that low.

  •  Here in MI we are facing a November election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    J Edward, ArkDem14

    that may require voters to complete a proverbial blue book of referenda on top of representation seats.  This could drive down turn out, and turn out is key to Dem success.  The GOP controlled legislature and Gov. Snyder are taking full credit for Michigan's economic gains with no acknowledgment of the role of the dramatic comeback of the auto industry, which certainly should be touted today as GM and Chrysler made the Fortune 100 list with GM in the top five of the list.  Auto workers in MI who will vote for Romney are just knuckleheads.

    Romney went to France instead of serving in our military, got rich chop-shopping US businesses and eliminating US jobs, off-shored his money in the Cayman Island"s, and now tells us to "Believe in America."

    by judyms9 on Mon May 07, 2012 at 07:38:10 AM PDT

    •  Should be difficult for Romney in MI after his (0+ / 0-)

      attitude towards the auto industry (bankrupsy) and the housing crisis (foreclose and investors turn it into rentals) and weirdness like the height of trees being so perfect here.  His Randian contempt for the rest of us is just not something he can hide as he tries to fake personality on the campaign trail.

      Never promote men who seek after a state-established religion; it is spiritual tyranny--the worst of despotism. It is turnpiking the way to heaven by human law, in order to establish ministerial gates to collect toll. John Leland

      by J Edward on Mon May 07, 2012 at 08:00:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  referenda (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, WisJohn

      Why would having a large number of ballot proposals drive turnout down?  It will probably increase turnout.  The proposals, like legalizing marijuana, may be the reason why some people show up at all.  

  •  PPP tweets (8+ / 0-)

    that among voters under 45 in Iowa, Obama leads by 17.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Mon May 07, 2012 at 08:11:17 AM PDT

  •  MI-7 Dem canddiate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, R30A, bumiputera

    Democrats do have another candidate running now.  

    Jackson County Democratic Party Chairman Ruben Marquez announced Friday he is seeking the seat in Congress now held by Tipton Republican Tim Walberg.
  •  CA-26 report from on the ground: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    grand opening of Julia Brownley's office this weekend was packed, lots of volunteers, lots of energy, lots of phone calls.

    The world is on pace for 11 degrees F warming. Nothing else in politics matters. @RL_Miller

    by RLMiller on Mon May 07, 2012 at 08:45:13 AM PDT

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