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As a result of the 2010 Census, Illinois will lose one seat in the United States House of Representatives, going from 19 seats to 18 seats. Since the Illinois General Assembly, which is responsible for redistricting in Illinois, is completely controlled by Democrats, and Democrat Pat Quinn is our governor, redistricting strongly favored Democrats. Factoring in incumbent Rep. Donald Manzullo's Republican primary defeat to fellow incumbent Rep. Adam Kinzinger in IL-16, Republicans have a 9-7-2 incumbency advantage in Illinois's U.S. House delegation going into the general election, with Republican Rep. Tim Johnson and Democratic Rep. Jerry Costello having announced their retirements.

I will provide race ratings for each of Illinois's 18 Congressional Districts. These ratings are subject to change at any time.

IL-1: Chicago-Tinley Park

Democratic Nominee: Bobby Rush
Republican Nominee: Donald Peloquin

Peloquin is a stronger opponent for Rush than perennial candidate Raymond Wardingley, and Rush's district was made slightly more favorable to Republicans in redistricting by adding areas of Will County east of Joliet. That's not saying much, though: IL-1 is still Black-majority and heavily Democratic. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-2: Chicago-Kankakee

Democratic Nominee: Jesse Jackson Jr.
Republican Nominee: Brian Woodworth

Jackson threw a royal fit after his Black-majority district was extended southward to include Kankakee County. However, Jackson should have an even easier time in the general election than he did in the Democratic primary, where he beat Deborah Halvorson by a wide margin. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-3: Chicago-Lockport

Democratic Nominee: Dan Lipinski
Republican Nominee: Richard Grabowski

Here is the first of two pick-up opportunities that Republicans have in Illinois. Obama won this district with only 58% of the vote in the 2008 Presidential election, making it a D+2 district. While Lipinski, a Blue Dog, has the backing of Mike Madigan and his Chicago Machine allies, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Republicans made a play for this district with their nominee, Richard Grabowski. However, Lipinski has the advantage in this race. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

IL-4: Chicago-Cicero

Democratic Nominee: Luis Gutierrez
Write-in Candidates: Jorge Savala (D), Hector Concepcion (R)

I don't know if Savala and Concepcion's write-in candidacies were in the primaries or are in the general election, but, either way, Gutierrez is safe in this Hispanic-majority, heavily Democratic, and earmuff-shaped district. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-5: Chicago-North Lake

Democratic Nominee: Mike Quigley
Republican Nominee: Dan Schmitt

Quigley's district, based in Chicago's North Side, was made slightly more favorable to Republicans by taking in portions of eastern DuPage county. This district is heavily Democratic, so Quigley appears to be safe. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-6: Naperville-Palatine

Democratic Nominee: Leslie Coolidge
Republican Nominee: Peter Roskam

Roskam's district was drawn as a Collar Counties Republican vote-sink, yet I wouldn't call this a safe district for Roskam, although it would be difficult for Coolidge to win this one for the Democrats. This district is trending away from Republicans, but I can't see it electing a Democrat to Congress in 2012. Nonetheless, the potential is there. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

IL-7: Chicago-Oak Park

Democratic Nominee: Danny Davis

Danny Davis is currently unopposed in this district after winning the Democratic primary in this district, which is Black-majority and the most Democratic district in Illinois. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-8: Elgin-Schamburg

Democratic Nominee: Tammy Duckworth
Republican Nominee: Joe Walsh
Write-in Candidate: Robert Canfield (R)

I don't know if Canfield's write-in campaign was in the Republican primary or is in the general election, but Joe Walsh is the incumbent Republican in this district, but a perfect storm of circumstances is working against him: his district was made significantly more favorable to Democrats in redistricting and doesn't even include his hometown of McHenry, several videos of him shooting his mouth off have surfaced on the internet, he only recently paid back child support, and he has a strong opponent in Tammy Duckworth, who won a hard-fought Democratic primary against Raja Krishnamoorthi. As much as I would like to call this a certain Democratic pickup for Duckworth, Walsh is the incumbent, ableit a wildly unpopular one. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

IL-9: Chicago-Evanston

Democratic Nominee: Jan Schakowsky
Republican Nominee: Timothy Wolfe
Write-in Candidate: Susanne Atanus (R)

I don't know if Atanus's write-in campaign was in the Republican primary or is in the general election, but I can't see Atanus or Wolfe, the official Republican nominee, defeating Schakowsky, whose Evanston-based district is still solidly Democratic despite redistricting. Schakowsky isn't a strong campaigner and is a liberal ideologue, but she is safe. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-10: Waukegan-Deerfield

Democratic Nominee: Brad Schneider
Republican Nominee: Robert Dold

This will be a competitive race, for sure. Dold barely won this in an open-seat scenario in 2010 against Democrat Dan Seals, and the district is still a Waukegan-based district, despite the fact that Dold's hometown of Kenilworth was drawn out of it. Schnieder, who won a hard-fought Democratic primary, appears to be idelogically similar to Seals, so this will be a competitive race once again. I'd give Schneider the slight edge here, given the fact that this is a presidential election year in which Obama, an Illinois native himself, is at the top of the ticket for Democrats. TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRATIC

IL-11: Joliet-Aurora

Democratic Nominee: Bill Foster
Republican Nominee: Judy Biggert

As a result of redistricting, the old IL-13 was renumbered IL-11 and made more favorable to Democrats by taking in Joliet, Aurora, and areas in between. Biggert is the Republican incumbent here, and she is going to have a tough fight for re-election as Democrats nominated former IL-14 Representative Bill Foster, who was defeated by Randy Hultgren in 2010. Given the fact that Biggert has the incumbency advantage and she hasn't made herself the laughing stock of Illinois like Walsh has, Biggert has a reasonable chance of being re-elected, but it'll be an uphill climb. LEAN DEMOCRATIC

IL-12: East St. Louis-Carbondale

Democratic Nominee: Brad Harriman
Republican Nominee: Jason Plummer
Independent Candidate: Retha Daugherty (potential)

Given the fact that Democratic incumbent Jerry Costello is retiring, this district is trending red, and Republicans have a formidable candidate in Jason Plummer, who was narrowly defeated by Sheila Simon for Lieutenant Governor of Illinois in 2010, one would think that all hope is lost for Democrats. Democrats had a candidate that seemed to fit this district well in Brad Harriman, who won a 3-way Democratic primary on March 20, but Harriman has withdrawn his nomination for health reasons, so 12 Democratic county chairpersons will select a replacement nominee, but a date for such a meeting has yet to be set. Potential candidates include, but are not limited to, John Bradley, Jerry Costello II, Sheila Simon, Chris Miller, Kenneth Wiezer, and Bill Haine. Independent candidate Retha Daugherty may also gain ballot access, although I can't envision any scenario in which she would play anything more than a spoiler role in this race. This is the second of two pick-up opportunities for Republicans in Illinois, and it's the easier of the two for Republicans. LEAN DEMOCRATIC

IL-13: Champaign-Springfield

Democratic Nominee: David Gill
Republican Nominee: Rodney Davis
Independent Candidate: John Hartman (potential)

As a result of redistricting, IL-15 was renumbered IL-13 and made more favorable to Democrats, now extending from Urbana in Champaign County to the Mississippi River in Calhoun County. However, this district doesn't strongly favor either party. Republican incumbent Tim Johnson won a three-way Republican primary, then decided that he wasn't going to seek re-election after all. Republican county chairmen in the 14 counties that compromise IL-13 selected Rodney Davis, an aide to John Shimkus, to replace Johnson as the Republican nominee on May 19. David Gill narrowly beat Matt Goetten in the Democratic Primary. Gill is a very liberal Democrat, and Davis has clear ties to a very conservative Republican, so this will be a base election, and turnout will be vital in this evenly-divided district. TOSSUP

IL-14: McHenry-Yorkville

Democratic Nominee: Dennis Anderson
Republican Nominee: Randy Hultgren

As a result of the old IL-11 and the old IL-16 effectively being merged as a result of redistricting, IL-14 was forced northward into the McHenry area. This made this already Republican-leaning district slightly more favorable to Republicans, and Hultgren is strongly favored to win re-election. Joe Walsh, whose home was drawn into this district, originally planned to run in a Republican primary against Hultgren, but Walsh decided to run in IL-8. Had Walsh run against Hultgren in an IL-14 Republican primary and won the Republican nomination, this would be a competitive race, given the amount of baggage Walsh has. However, since Walsh is running in another district, and Hultgren was unopposed for the Republican nomination, Hultgren should have little trouble getting re-elected. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

IL-15: Danville-Harrisburg

Democratic Nominee: Angela Michael (Fake)
Republican Nominee: John Shimkus

Since IL-19 was apportioned out of existence as a result of the 2010 Census, the Southern Illinois-based IL-19 was renumbered IL-15 and extended northward to include areas of East Central Illinois. This is the most Republican district in Illinois. Shimkus is infinitely safe in this district, as the Democrat running against him, Angela Michael, is not even running a legitimate campaign for public office, in fact, either ran or planned to run graphic anti-abortion ads in the St. Louis media market. SAFE REPUBLICAN

IL-16: LaSalle-Watseka

Democratic Nominee: TBD
Republican Nominee: Adam Kinzinger

As a result of Illinois losing one seat in apportionment, the old IL-16 and IL-11 were effectively merged as the new IL-16. Two Republican incumbents, Adam Kinzinger and Donald Manzullo, ran for the Republican nomination in this Republican-leaning district that extends from South Beloit in Winnebago County to Sheldon in Iroquois County. Kinzinger narrowly defeated Manzullo, which may be the only challenge Kinzinger will have, as he is currently unopposed in the general election, although there is a movement to slate Wanda Rohl as the Democratic nominee. Regardless of whether or not Rohl is slated, Kinzinger is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN

IL-17: Moline-Freeport

Democratic Nominee: Cheri Bustos
Republican Nominee: Bobby Schilling
Independent Candidate: Eric Reyes

IL-17 was shifted northward as a result of IL-18 being extended westward in redistricting, and now extends from Peoria to Moline to Rockford. This has made this district more compact and even more Democratic-leaning than the old IL-17. Yet, it has a Republican incumbent, Bobby Schilling, swept in by the 2010 Republican wave. Cheri Bustos won a three-way Democratic primary and is the Democratic nominee in this district, and a formidable one at that, with strong establishment backing. Bustos has the edge in this race, but Schilling is the incumbent and Reyes may play a spoiler role. LEAN DEMOCRATIC

IL-18: Lincoln-Quincy

Republican Nominee: Aaron Schock
Democratic Nominee: Steve Waterworth

IL-18 now extends from eastern McLean County to Quincy, making it a Republican vote-sink that includes much of Central and Western Illinois. Schock, the Republican incumbent, is safe in this district, as perennial candidate Steve Waterworth won the Democratic primary. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Summary of Race Ratings:
SAFE REPUBLICAN: 3 (IL-15, IL-16, IL-18)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN: 2 (IL-6, IL-14)
LEAN REPUBLICAN: NONE
TOSSUP/TILT REPUBLICAN: NONE
TOSSUP: 1 (IL-13)
TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRATIC: 1 (IL-10)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC: 3 (IL-11, IL-12, IL-17)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC: 2 (IL-3, IL-8)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC: 6 (IL-1, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-9)

For those of you who are wondering where my fantasy redistricting series has gone, I'll have a couple of diaries as part of that series up sometime tomorrow night.

Originally posted to Aaron Camp on DailyKos on Mon May 07, 2012 at 01:04 PM PDT.

Also republished by Land of Lincoln Kos.

Poll

How many of Illinois's U.S. House seats do you think that Democrats will win in 2012?

0%0 votes
2%1 votes
0%0 votes
5%2 votes
10%4 votes
15%6 votes
27%11 votes
30%12 votes
7%3 votes
2%1 votes

| 40 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I don't live even near IL but (3+ / 0-)

    I do know of one waste of DNA in the IL house race.

    IL-08, show the country you have decent people there do NOT elect Joe Walsh!

    I am sure there other other slimebuckets that should be defeated in IL, but the one I mentioned above has set some new lows for slime.

    "Stupid is as stupid does" - The republican motto you can believe in as they live it daily!

    by Mannie on Mon May 07, 2012 at 01:15:04 PM PDT

  •  Tipped & Recc'd for research and summarized layout (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NormAl1792, DownstateDemocrat

    "..The political class cannot solve the problems it created. " - Jay Rosen

    by New Rule on Mon May 07, 2012 at 01:42:33 PM PDT

  •  There may be a challenger to Kinzinger in IL-16 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    corncam, DownstateDemocrat

    I received the following in an e-mail on April 24, 2012.

    "Wanda Rohl of Ottowa hopes to be slated by the county Democratic party chairs as the candidate for the 16th Congressional district to run against Adam Kinzinger. She will be in town on Wednesday afternoon for a casual meet and greet if you would like to get acquiainted with her."

     I was unable to attend the meet and greet so I know very little about her.  
     

    The first thing lost in war is truth.

    by KatHart on Mon May 07, 2012 at 02:22:05 PM PDT

    •  I will make a note of that (0+ / 0-)

      Wanda Rohl hasn't been slated, yet, although she seems like someone who is deeply interested in taking on Kinzinger in the general election.

      I've been contacted by local Democratic Party operatives about running for a State House seat where an incumbent Republican is unopposed. (HD-104) However, I have zero interest in running for a seat in the Illinois General Assembly in 2012.

      •  We need all of the Democrats we can get (0+ / 0-)

        in Springfield, although I also know that in Illinois getting the funding and backing is sometimes a very difficult proposition.  If you decide to run, let me know and I'll make sure to donate.

        The first thing lost in war is truth.

        by KatHart on Tue May 08, 2012 at 07:51:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Alas, although I am glad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    leftywright

    ...to be rid of Manzullo,

    ...the only challenge Kinzinger will have, as he is currently unopposed in the general election. SAFE REPUBLICAN
    Sucks living in a Safe R district!

    GOP Agenda: Repeal 20th Century.

    by NormAl1792 on Mon May 07, 2012 at 02:24:17 PM PDT

    •  It sure does! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NormAl1792

      I used to be in IL-08, and had to put up with Walsh.  Now I have been moved to IL-06 and am stuck with Roskam.  Walsh is such a big-mouth asshat, I think he would have been a one-term wonder anyway, but I think I am stuck with Roskam for a long, long time.

    •  I live in IL-15... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NormAl1792

      ...and will be undervoting in that race, unless a third-party/write-in/independent candidate emerges.

      Angela Michael is not a legitimate candidate for public office. She is using her candidacy as a legal loophole in order to run graphic anti-abortion ads in the St. Louis media market, which covers the western part counties of IL-15. If Michael somehow won the election, I don't think she'd take her seat in Congress, which would force a special election sometime in early 2013.

      There was no legitimate Democrat who would seriously consider running in IL-15.

  •  Schakowsky (0+ / 0-)

    You have Jan as "not a stroong campaigner."

    She got about 75% of the vote in her old district. Sure, it's Democratic but she ran well ahead of Kerry in '04.

    The proof of thet pudding is in the eating.

    Cuddling other people's babies for fifty years.

    by Frank Palmer on Fri May 18, 2012 at 10:14:07 AM PDT

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