Voters in four states—Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Wisconsin—head to the polls today to vote in a wide variety of primaries. While there aren't any interesting races at the federal or statewide level in West Virginia, the other three states feature a number of key nominating contests, which we've written up below:
• IN-Sen (R): So it's come down to this: If six-term Republican Sen. Richard Lugar manages to survive his primary challenge from state Treasurer Richard Mourdock tonight, it will be considered in most circles to be a legitimate surprise. Most of the recent polling has shifted dramatically in Mourdock's favor (including a Howey Politics/DePauw University poll released on Friday that had Mourdock up by 10 points on Lugar).
So how did we get here? Mourdock can credit a combination of outside spending on his behalf (from the likes of the NRA and the proto-teabaggers at the Club for Growth), nagging issues surrounding Lugar's residency in the state (he hasn't lived in Indiana since 1977), and a Lugar campaign that simply hasn't done a competent job of focusing on issues that connect with the Republican base. (As admirable of a goal as it is, Lugar's repeated attempts to tout his initiatives against the proliferation of nuclear weapons just isn't the kind of issue that appeals to the tea-stained tribal instincts of the modern Republican primary voter.) Perhaps most tellingly, one of the only third-party groups left in Lugar's corner, the American Action Network, suspended its expenditures on Lugar's behalf with less than two weeks to go before primary day, explaining that they've decided to "let this race play out." If that isn't a sign that Dick Lugar himself is played out, I don't know what else could be. (James L)
The rest of our analysis is below the fold, but first, here's our Google Maps overlay of Indiana's new congressional districts, to help you follow along (you can click on a district to see its number):
• IN-05 (R): When enriched weapons-grade wingnut Dan Burton decided to hang up his spurs, you knew that a long line of Republicans would eagerly pounce on this open seat. The result is a four-way race, featuring ex-Rep. David McIntosh (who represented the former 2nd District in Congress for three terms before getting destroyed by Democrat Frank O'Bannon in the 2000 gubernatorial election), ex-Marion County coroner and two-time Burton primary challenger John McGoff, former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks, and Marion Mayor Wayne Seybold. McIntosh has (oddly) received the financial assistance of the gonzo anti-incumbent Campaign for Primary Accountability in addition to the Mourdock-backing FreedomWorks, but, in a Lugaresque fashion, his campaign has also been dogged by questions surrounding his residency. He's still considered the front-runner, but if anyone can stop him, it's probably Brooks. (James L)
• IN-06 (R): Ex-state Rep. Luke Messer, the man who nearly stole Dan Burton's crown in the 2010 Republican primary, is the establishment favorite in the open seat race to replace Mike Pence, earning the endorsement of Gov. Mitch Daniels and the Indiana Chamber of Commerce. Of course, being the "establishment favorite" may not be all that it's cracked up to be in a year where Dick Lugar appears to be circling the drain. Real estate investor Travis Hankins, a favorite of the teabagging set who nearly won the Republican primary in the 9th District in 2010, could be the one to give Messer a scare in a very crowded field. (James L)
• IN-08 (R): Democrats are quietly hoping that tea party activist Kristi Risk, who only lost an open seat primary here by 4 percent in 2010, can capture some of Richard Mourdock's magic in her rematch with incumbent GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon. Risk is running a supremely low-budget campaign, but Bucshon appears to be lacking in hustle. If Risk can pull off an upset, expect Democrats to move the campaign of their nominee, state Rep. Dave Crooks, way up the priority list. (James L)
• IN-09 (D): Redistricting made this former swing seat safer for GOP Rep. Todd Young, despite the fact that approximately half of Daily Kos Elections' readership apparently still lives in the district. Democrats have a three-way race on their hands for the longshot opportunity to wrestle this one back for Team Blue. Retired Air Force Brigadier General Jonathan George, former Lee Hamilton aide Robert Winningham, and former Miss Indiana Shelli Yoder are all competing for the nod, but it's difficult to say if any one of them has an edge, though Winningham has had the edge in fundraising. (James L)
•
NC-Gov (D): Incumbent Governor Bev Perdue, faced with unappealing poll numbers, decided to throw in the towel early this year after only one term, turning this into a late-breaking open seat for the Democrats. A not-so-short list of a dozen potential names (ranging from Brad Miller to Erskine Bowles) quickly got whittled down to just two main players: Lt. Governor Walter Dalton and ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge, who lost after 14 years in the House in the 2010 wave. (There are a few other minor players, including state Rep. Bill Faison and 90-year-old Bruce Blackmon, important to the extent that they may keep Dalton and Etheridge below 40 percent and force a runoff.) Dalton and Etheridge are both fairly centrist; the battle between them seems more one of geography, as Dalton is from the western uplands and Etheridge is from the Raleigh metro area. Dalton has racked up most of the
money, though ($1.4 million raised, to $312K for Etheridge), and being able to hit the TV airwaves statewide has helped push him into a
small lead (34-29 in PPP's poll over the weekend). (David Jarman)
North Carolina's new congressional map has undergone drastic revisions, so you'll definitely want to keep it handy as we walk through the state's key House primaries:
•
NC-03 (R): Walter Jones should theoretically be vulnerable to a challenge: As one of the most moderate members of the House Republicans but resident of a dark-red GOP vote sink, he's consistently one of the House's
worst fits for his district. However, that's always been easier said than done, and Jones has repelled solid primary challengers before. How will he fare in the post-tea party era of purity, though? Former New Bern police chief Frank Palombo aims to find out. There's been very little chatter about Palombo, though, and it doesn't seem like the Campaign for Primary Accountability—who
announced their interest in this race last month—ever spent anything here, meaning Jones is probably safe for another term. (David Jarman)
• NC-06 (R): 81-year-old Howard Coble is one of the oldest members of the House, and a serious health scare earlier in the cycle led potential successors to start staking out the race in this solidly GOP district. Coble seems to have recovered, though, and is back in the hunt for yet another term (he was first elected in 1984). Two credible opponents did stay in the hunt, though, perhaps hoping that some combination of rejiggered district lines, anti-establishment anger, and a weakened Coble might offer a path to victory: Guilford Co. Commissioner Billy Yow and radio talk show host Mike Flynn. Having not one but two opponents, though, makes it likelier that Coble will get saved by the "clown car" effect, with anti-Coble votes getting split between two alternatives. (David Jarman)
• NC-07 (R): We got ourselves an old-fashioned establishment versus tea party fight in the Republican primary in the 7th, for the right to take on Democratic Blue Dog Rep. Mike McIntyre (who's had no trouble holding down a GOP-leaning district in the past, but got a significantly redder seat out of redistricting). In the establishment corner is state Sen. (and former Jesse Helms staffer) David Rouzer, for whom the new map was tailor-made; in the wingnut corner is Ilario Pantano, who lost to McIntyre by 8 points in 2010. Pantano offers up quite the toxic two-fer: Not only did he used to work for Goldman Sachs, but he was also accused of war crimes in Iraq (and to put an exclamation point after that, he was endorsed by Donald Rumsfeld). Pantano and his allies have offered up several apparently unanswered internal polls showing a lead over Rouzer. (David Jarman)
• NC-08 (R): Larry Kissell was a somewhat surprising Democratic survivor of the 2010 wave election, but Republicans tried hard to rectify that situation, taking an Obama +6 seat and turning it into a McCain +15 seat in redistricting. It's therefore not too surprising that a total of five Republicans launched efforts to topple Kissell in 2012. The betting favorite appears to be former Hill staffer Richard Hudson, who got some love from Eric Cantor's PAC to the tune of about $76K. Kissell's dearest hope is that perennial candidate and batshit crazy source of entertainment Vernon Robinson somehow makes the cut. Robinson is a campaign ATM, and has significantly outraised his GOP compatriots (though with a burn rate to match). With a big field, Hudson may be the front-runner, but he could be forced into a runoff—40 percent is the threshold to watch. (Steve Singiser)
• NC-09 (R): We weren't quite sure how to react when Republican backbencher (and former Charlotte mayor) Sue Myrick decided to pull the plug, but plenty of Republicans—11, in fact—in this 54 percent McCain district did. The top three fundraisers have been Mecklenburg County Sheriff Jim Pendergraph, Weddington City Councilman Dan Barry, and former state Senator Robert Pittenger, though Pittenger won the money race by a mile, donating almost $1 million to his own campaign coffers. Pendergraph, meanwhile, had won the endorsement of the Charlotte Observer, which is perhaps otherwise unnoteworthy except for the fact that the endorsement was subsequently rescinded due to Pendergraph dabbling in birtherism. That, of course, is not necessarily a bad thing in a GOP primary. With so many candidates, any one person may have a hard time getting the 40 percent needed to clear a runoff. (Jeffmd)
• NC-10 (D): Republicans in the legislature drew the Democrat-heavy city of Asheville out of the old NC-11, bringing two Asheville-based challengers to the petulant Patrick McHenry. Terry Bellamy, the first African-American mayor of the city, faces off against state Rep. Patsy Keever, who held then-NC-11 Rep. Charles Taylor to a surprisingly tight 10-point spread in 2004. The district has changed substantially since then—only about 24 percent of the old NC-11 is in this district—but a substantial portion of the Democratic primary vote will come from Asheville and Buncombe County, where both candidates have a base. (Jeffmd)
• NC-11 (D): Rumors of incumbent Rep. Heath Shuler's retirement were floating long before redistricting was even finalized, and the conversion of his district into a 40 percent Obama district (down from 47 percent) perhaps made his decision somewhat easier. Shuler's chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, is running in his place. Asheville City Councilman Cecil Bothwell, who had initially announced a primary challenge to Shuler and could learn to file FEC reports electronically, remains in the race against Rogers. But with liberal Asheville removed from this Blue Doggy (if not outright conservative) district, it's hard to see Bothwell gaining the traction he needs. (Jeffmd)
• NC-11 (R): The open seat left in Shuler's wake also presented a temptation to various Western North Carolina Republicans, eight of whom entered the race to replace him. Three Republican stand out from the rest on fundraising grounds—District Attorney Jeff Hunt, "Christian conservative businessman" Mark Meadows, and "Christian businessman" (and Daily Kos Elections nemesis) Ethan Wingfield. Given the large number of candidates, it's hard to tell who has the advantage, though Hunt does currently serve as DA for about 20 percent of the district (Henderson and Transylvania Counties); a runoff could well happen here. (Jeffmd)
• NC-13 (R): Though it has garnered significantly less media attention than the other GOP primaries on tap in the Tar Heel State, you could make a good case that the race in the open-seat redrawn 13th district has the most at stake Tuesday night. The reason is simple: In the wake of Brad Miller's redistricting-induced retirement, Democrats appear to have all but conceded this seat—neither contender has even filed an FEC report. That means the winner of the GOP primary will be the de facto Congressman-elect once the primaries are done in what is now a McCain +9 district. Former Raleigh Mayor Paul Coble has the name recognition, but former U.S. Attorney and former Hill staffer George Holding has the warchest. 2010 nominee Bill Randall (when the district was heavily Democratic) is the poorly-funded wild card in the three-man battle. (Steve Singiser)
• NC Amendment One: As Tom Jensen of the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling has relentlessly pointed out for a long time, North Carolina's Amendment One seems to be the beneficiary of some serious misapprehensions about what the law would actually do. Many supporters think it only bans same-sex marriage, but the measure in fact outlaws civil unions, too. When informed about the true nature of the amendment, PPP's polling shows it failing. Sadly, though, voter education has been lacking and marriage equality groups haven't shown up in force. As a consequence, polls (including PPP's latest) show Amendment One passing by a wide margin. (David Nir)
•
WI-Gov (D): Democrats are choosing between four candidates to take on Republican Gov. Scott Walker in June's gubernatorial recall election, but only two are serious contenders for the nomination: Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. Barrett's locked up establishment support, from retiring Sen. Herb Kohl on down. Falk, meanwhile, is the favorite of many labor unions, and they've been spending big on her behalf. Public polling of the primary has shown Barrett with pretty sizable leads; the most recent survey,
from Marquette, had him up 38-20. A Falk win at this point would be a definite upset.
There are also Democratic primaries in all four state Senate recall elections, but all of them feature "fake" Democrats—i.e., Republicans trying to muck with the democratic process and cause trouble. Last summer, one such bogus candidate managed to come within 10 points of the real Democrat, so Team Blue has hopefully been on guard against any possible stunners. (David Nir)