Here is the data I collected for election districts in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. I included the Democrats' share of just the total Dem and GOP votes for president and the Democrats' share of just the total Dem and GOP registration numbers from the October reports, as well as the Democratic percentages (of the total votes, not just the 2-party share) in the U.S. House, Senate, and Assembly districts, and results for the Supervisor Districts. The Secretary of State website does not have county results for 1992, 1994, or 2010.
(*Asterisked numbers indicate no Republican was in the race.)
First up is Riverside:
|
1992 Reg. |
1992 Pres. |
1992 Sub. |
1994 Sub. |
1996 Reg. |
1996 Pres. |
1996 Sub. |
1998 Sub. |
2000 Reg. |
2000 Pres. |
2000 Sub. |
County
|
49%
|
51%
|
|
|
46%
|
49%
|
|
|
44%
|
47%
|
|
CA-43
|
48%
|
50%
|
46%
|
38%
|
45%
|
49%
|
38%
|
38%
|
42%
|
46%
|
0%
|
CA-44
|
50%
|
53%
|
40%
|
38%
|
49%
|
50%
|
39%
|
36%
|
47%
|
49%
|
38%
|
CA-48
|
30%
|
34%
|
29%
|
22%
|
28%
|
34%
|
27%
|
0%
|
30%
|
34%
|
28%
|
SD-31
|
50%
|
53%
|
0%
|
|
49%
|
53%
|
42%
|
|
48%
|
51%
|
38%
|
SD-36
|
47%
|
49%
|
|
42%
|
44%
|
47%
|
|
40%
|
41%
|
44%
|
|
SD-37
|
53%
|
55%
|
38%
|
|
50%
|
49%
|
30%
|
|
47%
|
49%
|
33%
|
AD-64
|
51%
|
52%
|
47%
|
28%
|
49%
|
52%
|
42%
|
0%
|
45%
|
50%
|
39%
|
AD-65
|
50%
|
53%
|
39%
|
37%
|
49%
|
53%
|
39%
|
40%
|
48%
|
51%
|
43%
|
AD-66
|
42%
|
45%
|
31%
|
29%
|
40%
|
43%
|
34%
|
38%
|
38%
|
40%
|
32%
|
AD-80
|
53%
|
55%
|
50%
|
44%
|
50%
|
49%
|
41%
|
41%
|
47%
|
49%
|
44%
|
Sup. 1
|
44%
|
45%
|
|
|
40%
|
44%
|
Stone 52%
|
|
38%
|
41%
|
Buster 51%
|
Sup. 2
|
50%
|
43%
|
|
|
48%
|
51%
|
|
Tavaglione 98%
|
44%
|
48%
|
|
Sup. 3
|
47%
|
49%
|
|
|
44%
|
46%
|
Venable 50%
|
|
42%
|
43%
|
Venable 100%
|
Sup. 4
|
53%
|
55%
|
|
|
51%
|
49%
|
|
Wilson 76%
|
48%
|
50%
|
|
Sup. 5
|
51%
|
55%
|
|
|
50%
|
55%
|
|
Mullen 69%
|
49%
|
55%
|
|
District results and San Bernardino numbers are below the flip.
|
1992 Reg. |
1992 Pres. |
1992 Sub. |
1994 Sub. |
1996 Reg. |
1996 Pres. |
1996 Sub. |
1998 Sub. |
2000 Reg. |
2000 Pres. |
2000 Sub. |
County
|
49%
|
51%
|
|
|
46%
|
49%
|
|
|
44%
|
47%
|
|
CA-43
|
48%
|
50%
|
46%
|
38%
|
45%
|
49%
|
38%
|
38%
|
42%
|
46%
|
0%
|
CA-44
|
50%
|
53%
|
40%
|
38%
|
49%
|
50%
|
39%
|
36%
|
47%
|
49%
|
38%
|
CA-48
|
30%
|
34%
|
29%
|
22%
|
28%
|
34%
|
27%
|
0%
|
30%
|
34%
|
28%
|
SD-31
|
50%
|
53%
|
0%
|
|
49%
|
53%
|
42%
|
|
48%
|
51%
|
38%
|
SD-36
|
47%
|
49%
|
|
42%
|
44%
|
47%
|
|
40%
|
41%
|
44%
|
|
SD-37
|
53%
|
55%
|
38%
|
|
50%
|
49%
|
30%
|
|
47%
|
49%
|
33%
|
AD-64
|
51%
|
52%
|
47%
|
28%
|
49%
|
52%
|
42%
|
0%
|
45%
|
50%
|
39%
|
AD-65
|
50%
|
53%
|
39%
|
37%
|
49%
|
53%
|
39%
|
40%
|
48%
|
51%
|
43%
|
AD-66
|
42%
|
45%
|
31%
|
29%
|
40%
|
43%
|
34%
|
38%
|
38%
|
40%
|
32%
|
AD-80
|
53%
|
55%
|
50%
|
44%
|
50%
|
49%
|
41%
|
41%
|
47%
|
49%
|
44%
|
Sup. 1
|
44%
|
45%
|
|
|
40%
|
44%
|
Stone 52%
|
|
38%
|
41%
|
Buster 51%
|
Sup. 2
|
50%
|
43%
|
|
|
48%
|
51%
|
|
Tavaglione 98%
|
44%
|
48%
|
|
Sup. 3
|
47%
|
49%
|
|
|
44%
|
46%
|
Venable 50%
|
|
42%
|
43%
|
Venable 100%
|
Sup. 4
|
53%
|
55%
|
|
|
51%
|
49%
|
|
Wilson 76%
|
48%
|
50%
|
|
Sup. 5
|
51%
|
55%
|
|
|
50%
|
55%
|
|
Mullen 69%
|
49%
|
55%
|
|
|
2002 Sub. |
2004 Reg. |
2004 Pres. |
2004 Sub. |
2006 Sub. |
2008 Reg. |
2008 Pres. |
2008 Sub. |
2010 Sub. |
County
|
|
42%
|
42%
|
|
|
44%
|
51%
|
|
|
CA-41
|
30%
|
41%
|
40%
|
0%
|
33%
|
43%
|
47%
|
38%
|
37%
|
CA-44
|
32%
|
44%
|
43%
|
35%
|
37%
|
46%
|
53%
|
49%
|
44%
|
CA-45
|
33%
|
44%
|
43%
|
33%
|
39%
|
45%
|
52%
|
42%
|
42%
|
CA-49
|
0%
|
37%
|
35%
|
35%
|
34%
|
39%
|
46%
|
38%
|
32%
|
SD-31
|
|
47%
|
46%
|
40%
|
|
50%
|
56%
|
41%
|
|
SD-36
|
24%
|
30%
|
30%
|
|
33%
|
32%
|
40%
|
|
33%
|
SD-37
|
|
42%
|
42%
|
40%
|
|
44%
|
51%
|
45%
|
|
SD-40
|
56%
|
55%
|
54%
|
|
62%
|
54%
|
62%
|
|
60%
|
AD-63
|
39%
|
49%
|
46%
|
|
40%
|
52%
|
55%
|
46%
|
42%
|
AD-64
|
37%
|
41%
|
42%
|
39%
|
39%
|
43%
|
51%
|
0%
|
43%
|
AD-65
|
37%
|
45%
|
41%
|
38%
|
37%
|
47%
|
51%
|
47%
|
42%
|
AD-66
|
32%
|
38%
|
36%
|
36%
|
38%
|
40%
|
47%
|
42%
|
35%
|
AD-71
|
27%
|
39%
|
38%
|
31%
|
28%
|
41%
|
50%
|
0%
|
34%
|
AD-80
|
48%
|
49%
|
52%
|
41%
|
48%
|
50%
|
59%
|
53%
|
58%
|
Sup. 1
|
|
42%
|
42%
|
Buster 50%
|
|
44%
|
52%
|
Buster 62%
|
|
Sup. 2
|
Tavaglione 99%
|
43%
|
41%
|
|
Tavaglione 100%
|
45%
|
52%
|
|
|
Sup. 3
|
|
34%
|
33%
|
Stone 58%
|
|
36%
|
42%
|
Stone 72%
|
|
Sup. 4
|
Wilson 100%
|
46%
|
47%
|
|
Wilson 100%
|
46%
|
55%
|
|
|
Sup. 5
|
Ashley 68%
|
50%
|
49%
|
|
Ashley 66%
|
53%
|
60%
|
|
|
Now for San Bernardino:
|
1992 Reg. |
1992 Pres. |
1992 Sub. |
1994 Sub. |
1996 Reg. |
1996 Pres. |
1996 Sub. |
1998 Sub. |
2000 Reg. |
2000 Pres. |
2000 Sub. |
County
|
51%
|
51%
|
|
|
50%
|
50%
|
|
|
51%
|
49%
|
|
CA-40
|
46%
|
47%
|
31%
|
29%
|
45%
|
44%
|
29%
|
32%
|
44%
|
41%
|
0%
|
CA-41
|
45%
|
46%
|
34%
|
38%
|
46%
|
49%
|
33%
|
41%
|
49%
|
49%
|
37%
|
CA-42
|
59%
|
58%
|
51%
|
51%
|
58%
|
60%
|
50%
|
55%
|
60%
|
59%
|
60%
|
SD-17
|
47%
|
47%
|
39%
|
|
46%
|
43%
|
33%
|
|
46%
|
40%
|
32%
|
SD-31
|
45%
|
47%
|
0%
|
|
44%
|
45%
|
42%
|
|
45%
|
45%
|
38%
|
SD-32
|
58%
|
58%
|
|
61%
|
58%
|
61%
|
|
59%
|
60%
|
59%
|
|
AD-34
|
47%
|
47%
|
35%
|
38%
|
46%
|
43%
|
35%
|
32%
|
46%
|
40%
|
34%
|
AD-61
|
48%
|
49%
|
36%
|
36%
|
50%
|
53%
|
40%
|
56%
|
54%
|
53%
|
54%
|
AD-62
|
66%
|
65%
|
59%
|
60%
|
65%
|
69%
|
64%
|
65%
|
66%
|
67%
|
63%
|
AD-63
|
46%
|
47%
|
31%
|
32%
|
45%
|
47%
|
37%
|
72%
|
47%
|
47%
|
38%
|
AD-65
|
43%
|
45%
|
39%
|
37%
|
41%
|
44%
|
39%
|
40%
|
39%
|
38%
|
43%
|
Sup. 1
|
47%
|
47%
|
|
|
46%
|
43%
|
Davis 73%
|
|
45%
|
40%
|
Postmus 53%
|
Sup. 2
|
45%
|
47%
|
|
|
45%
|
48%
|
Tomberlin 59%
|
Mikels 65%
|
48%
|
48%
|
|
Sup. 3
|
45%
|
47%
|
|
|
44%
|
45%
|
Hansberger 51%
|
|
45%
|
44%
|
Hansberger 51%
|
Sup. 4
|
48%
|
49%
|
|
|
49%
|
53%
|
|
Aguiar 81%
|
54%
|
53%
|
|
Sup. 5
|
70%
|
69%
|
|
|
69%
|
72%
|
Eaves 100%
|
|
69%
|
70%
|
Eaves 45%
|
|
2002 Sub. |
2004 Reg. |
2004 Pres. |
2004 Sub. |
2006 Sub. |
2008 Reg. |
2008 Pres. |
2008 Sub. |
2010 Sub. |
County
|
|
48%
|
44%
|
|
|
48%
|
53%
|
|
|
CA-25
|
31%
|
47%
|
38%
|
36%
|
36%
|
49%
|
50%
|
42%
|
38%
|
CA-26
|
34%
|
43%
|
41%
|
43%
|
38%
|
44%
|
51%
|
40%
|
37%
|
CA-41
|
30%
|
40%
|
37%
|
0%
|
33%
|
41%
|
44%
|
38%
|
37%
|
CA-42
|
29%
|
44%
|
42%
|
32%
|
0%
|
44%
|
50%
|
40%
|
32%
|
CA-43
|
66%
|
61%
|
59%
|
66%
|
65%
|
60%
|
69%
|
69%
|
66%
|
SD-17
|
|
40%
|
33%
|
36%
|
|
42%
|
42%
|
|
|
SD-18
|
0%
|
45%
|
37%
|
|
28%
|
46%
|
45%
|
|
31%
|
SD-29
|
|
45%
|
42%
|
33%
|
|
44%
|
50%
|
39%
|
|
SD-31
|
|
40%
|
40%
|
40%
|
|
42%
|
48%
|
41%
|
|
SD-32
|
68%
|
61%
|
58%
|
|
100%
|
60%
|
69%
|
|
68%
|
AD-32
|
24%
|
49%
|
27%
|
21%
|
28%
|
50%
|
33%
|
31%
|
28%
|
AD-34
|
35%
|
50%
|
38%
|
31%
|
28%
|
50%
|
44%
|
36%
|
30%
|
AD-36
|
36%
|
43%
|
36%
|
34%
|
63%
|
45%
|
47%
|
48%
|
42%
|
AD-59
|
37%
|
39%
|
35%
|
38%
|
38%
|
41%
|
43%
|
41%
|
37%
|
AD-60
|
31%
|
41%
|
40%
|
33%
|
30%
|
41%
|
49%
|
44%
|
35%
|
AD-61
|
63%
|
54%
|
50%
|
64%
|
63%
|
53%
|
60%
|
61%
|
60%
|
AD-62
|
69%
|
64%
|
63%
|
65%
|
68%
|
62%
|
73%
|
100%
|
70%
|
AD-63
|
39%
|
43%
|
43%
|
35%
|
40%
|
45%
|
52%
|
46%
|
42%
|
AD-65
|
37%
|
36%
|
35%
|
38%
|
37%
|
37%
|
40%
|
47%
|
42%
|
Sup. 1
|
|
42%
|
34%
|
Postmus 85%
|
|
43%
|
43%
|
Mitzelfelt 62%
|
|
Sup. 2
|
Blaine 56%
|
46%
|
44%
|
|
Blaine 99%
|
47%
|
55%
|
|
|
Sup. 3
|
|
41%
|
40%
|
Hansberger 98%
|
|
42%
|
47%
|
Derry 52%
|
|
Sup. 4
|
Aguiar 81%
|
51%
|
47%
|
Ovitt 49%
|
Ovitt 73%
|
50%
|
57%
|
|
|
Sup. 5
|
|
64%
|
62%
|
Gonzales 53%
|
|
61%
|
72%
|
Gonzales 100%
|
|
Note how in most races in Riverside, the Democratic presidential candidate slightly overperformed their share of the 2-party registration numbers except in 2004, when Kerry either tied or underperformed Democratic numbers, and in the races further down the ballot the underperformance is even greater. We have made some progress in this county but still have a ways to go to build up a good bench here. We might be able to in the new Dem-leaning House, Senate, and Assembly districts, like we did in San Bernardino in the 2000s CA-43/SD-32/AD-61 and 62.
In San Bernardino, the Democratic presidential candidate tied or slightly underperformed most registration numbers until 2004, when Kerry slightly underperformed probably due to cultural issues, and 2008, when Obama slightly overperformed due to the economy. The races further down the ballot need work also, with AD-61 and 62 being notable exceptions.
California voters have a long history of splitting tickets, and most of the SoCal Republicans were entrenched, so it is not too surprising that the downballot races here have lower Democratic numbers. This election is going into uncharted territory, with the new Dem-leaning Riverside districts, most of the 10+-term Republicans throwing in the towel, and top-2 that could result in 2-Republican races. I can't wait until October, when I can post the new numbers for the districts in these counties and, looking at past performance, estimate the results of the new districts.