Since the first series of race ratings were published last month, not a lot has changed. We remain months away from general elections — a political eternity — but it is instructive to look at polling data that consistently shows public opinion has already hardened. There is a large proportion of the American electorate that has resolved to oppose President Barack Obama and the Democrats, as well as a similarly sized proportion resolved to support him while opposing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and the Republicans.
While the media is eager to seize on any data or analysis that posits the presidential race as a close battle, the occupant of the White House from Jan. 20, 2013, to Jan. 20, 2017, will be decided by the Electoral College, not by the nationwide popular vote. And with state-by-state polling giving the incumbent a clear edge, even in some states he won in 2008 that Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Vice President Al Gore lost (Virginia and Colorado, namely), it is hard to argue looking at the data and the dynamics of the race that Obama is not at least somewhat favored.
The media is right about one thing, though: the country is deeply polarized. The electoral map is not likely to look dramatically different than it did in 2008 because Obama simply cannot win over enough of the voters who hate him to significantly expand the map, and Romney cannot win over enough of the voters who hate him to have more than a very narrow path to victory.
Obama could still claim a landslide victory and win more states this year than he did in 2008, but his opportunities to play offense are largely the same as they were when he was first elected over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
Meanwhile, Romney could rebound in the polls and capture enough battleground states to edge Obama, but it is extremely difficult to envision him winning more than 290 electoral votes under the best-case scenario. (Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. To win, 270 votes are needed of 538 available.)
Last month’s race ratings stuck to analyzing the House and Senate races this year. Those remain on the radar, but aside from some campaign news and a few surprising results in infrequently polled races moving a few ratings around, there have been no dramatic changes. The congressional state of play will be explored later on this week.
For now, let us look at the presidential election, state by state.
My shading represents the confidence I have in the prediction, not how large I expect the margin of victory to be. It is far too early to be predicting that, and in my judgment, a win is a win.
That being said, this is obviously an effort to categorize a spectrum. For example, I have shaded both Nevada and New Jersey in medium blue, indicating I believe they are Likely Democratic states for Obama in November. However, credible polls in Nevada have been markedly closer than credible polls in New Jersey, and the Obama and Romney campaigns have treated Nevada as being more of a battleground in this election cycle than New Jersey seems to be.
While I do have greater confidence that Nevada will ultimately vote for Obama than, say, Colorado or Iowa, I have less confidence that it will than New Jersey. There is no real way to represent that on the map without going crazy with gradients of blue, but I figured I should note that caveat.
Other examples of this: Indiana and Montana are both light red for Lean Republican, but I would expect Obama to win Indiana (as he did in 2008) before Montana (as he almost did in 2008). Oregon will probably vote for Obama under any circumstances, but it represents a somewhat better opportunity for Romney than neighboring Washington and California, considering Gore barely won it in 2000 and Kerry’s performance there in 2004 was far from commanding. The states colored in yellow are those I consider Tossups, but they also include Tossup/Tilt Democratic and Tossup/Tilt Republican states, which I will lay out in more detail.
Tossups
The only state I consider a true Tossup is, fittingly enough, Florida. The Sunshine State denied Gore victory in the disputed 2000 election, shifted further toward President George W. Bush in 2004, and then flipped blue for Obama in 2008. Polls have shown its fickle electorate to be closely divided between Obama and Romney, neither of whom is smashingly popular there.
Romney is going hard after the traditionally Democratic Jewish vote, exploiting Obama’s strained relationship with conservative Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and has courted the Republican-leaning Cuban vote and the heavily Democratic Puerto Rican vote by allying himself with Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Gov. Luis Fortuño, R-P.R., respectively.
However, polls have shown that Rubio — considered a far likelier running mate for Romney than the lesser-known but more experienced Fortuño — does little to give Romney an edge over Obama in Florida. They have also shown Jewish and Puerto Rican voters remain largely behind Obama.
Florida is likely to remain very competitive until the endgame of this election campaign, and as such, it should be considered a complete Tossup.
Of the remaining yellow electoral votes, 12 are currently considered Tilt Republican.
Nebraska, which splits its electoral votes by congressional district, awarded the single electoral vote of Omaha-based NE-02 to Obama in 2008. He remains competitive in that district, with a campaign office operating in Omaha and television advertising in the Omaha media market (which also extends into the swing state of Iowa), but Romney is probably a slight favorite there for now.
Arizona is also in the Tossup/Tilt Republican category for now. Recent polls have shown the state very tight, and Obama even leads there according to some surveys. While the Obama for America campaign seems to be treating Arizona as a potential pickup opportunity this time, unencumbered by the home-state advantage McCain had in 2008, and has announced a three-month voter registration drive to determine whether it is winnable for Obama in November, the state was not included among nine where ad time was purchased over the weekend. Most polls have still shown Obama well below the 50-percent mark.
The rest of the lot — New Hampshire, Ohio and North Carolina — are Tossup/Tilt Democratic.
Romney has yet to lead in a Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina, which Obama barely won in a modest surprise in 2008 and where the usually reliable polling outfit is headquartered. Polling has been similarly unfriendly in Ohio. Nevertheless, no credible surveys have given Obama a particularly wide lead in either state, and Romney has polled within the margin of error in nearly all of them.
Romney has led in some New Hampshire polls, but the latest numbers there show his lead evaporating. New Hampshire is the most Republican-friendly state in New England, but with how reliably Democratic the region has become over the past half-century, that does not say much. However, Romney practically lives in New Hampshire, the southern part of which is largely comprised of suburbs of his native Boston. He has to be considered a threat to carry its four electoral votes.
Lean Democratic states
Of the states I consider Lean Democratic, shaded in light blue, I think Pennsylvania is probably the most competitive. I vacillated between coloring it in yellow for Tossup/Tilt Democratic and coloring it light blue for Lean Democratic, but ultimately, the state’s proclivity to break late (after the conventions) toward the Democrats and its history of voting Democratic even in 2000 and 2004, as the Republican Bush won, swayed me toward the latter. Still, polls have shown the state to be close, and Romney’s profile is probably better suited for the swingy suburbs of Philadelphia in southeastern Pennsylvania than the “maverick conservative” profile of the McCain presidential ticket or the “conservative cowboy” profile Bush presented. Obama has the advantage, and the state is likelier than not to move toward him in the polls come September, but Romney is still targeting it and he is not wrong to do so.
Virginia and Colorado are considered “new” swing states, breaking heavily toward Obama in 2008 after years of being solid Republican territory. The bevy of poll results showing that 2008 was not a fluke cannot thrill Romney. Obama led by 13 points in one recent PPP survey of Colorado. He has led by high single digits in most credible polls of Virginia. It will not be easy for Romney to win without either Colorado or Virginia, and for now, he appears to be going hard after Virginia with repeated campaign appearances. Virginia’s popular governor, Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, is considered a potential running mate for Romney. He likely will not flip the state if Obama’s substantial polling lead there holds, but he could grease the skids for Romney in the Old Dominion.
While veteran pollster Ann Selzer found Romney leading a trial heat when she surveyed her home state of Iowa earlier this year, PPP found Obama back up in the Hawkeye State just this week. Romney’s white-collar profile is not as well suited to the largely rural, traditionally populist state as erstwhile rivals like former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and while both campaigns are treating Iowa as a swing state, I give Obama the edge here. Iowa was never really in play in 2008, despite voting for Bush two times in 2004 and very nearly in 2000, and I think a lot of the investment in the state has at least as much to do with NE-02 as it does with Iowa.
Lean Republican states
The light red Lean Republican states have not seen much investment by either campaign, with some notable exceptions. Obama for America has three field offices in Indiana, which Obama won by the skin of his teeth in 2008, and another just across the river in Louisville, Ky. Obama has made a couple of recent visits to Georgia, including one to a military base late last month, and the campaign has suggested it could build on its 2008 efforts to register voters there as well as demographic shifts that have seen the state’s minority population rise.
Missouri and Montana have not gotten much attention yet, but Obama nearly won both states in 2008, and polls have shown a race in the mid-single digits in both states, though Romney has led every trial heat in a credible poll.
Likely Democratic states
States shaded medium blue and medium red are considered Likely Democratic and Likely Republican, respectively. Some pundits consider Wisconsin a swing state, and some consider New Mexico one as well. But Obama won both in a big way in 2008, and polls have shown his 2008 margins shrinking little (and actually growing in New Mexico, according to some recent results). Neither state was included in OFA’s recent nine-state ad buy.
One caveat for Wisconsin, though, is that both parties are heavily invested in the outcome of a gubernatorial recall election next month that could see unpopular Republican Gov. Scott Walker turfed out of office amidst ethics probes and policy controversies. If Walker survives the recall, Republicans will likely feel energized about their chances in Wisconsin and may put more money into making the state competitive for Romney in November. But if Walker loses, I suspect Wisconsin will fall off the radar completely for the Republican Party.
New Jersey and Michigan are states where Romney would probably like to play a lot more than he realistically can. Still, some polls have shown Romney close in Michigan, though the samples of the EPIC-MRA surveys in question have been heavily Republican and likely unreflective of the general electorate this year. His father, George Romney, was governor of Michigan back in the 1960s, but Mitt Romney’s opposition to the successful automaker rescue has been widely panned in this state that relies so much on the automobile industry.
As for New Jersey, polls have shown Obama not exactly running away with the state, but like Pennsylvania, it tends to break late toward the Democrats. No Republican has carried it in a presidential election since Vice President George H.W. Bush routed then-Gov. Michael Dukakis, D-Mass., in 1988. Like Virginia, it has a potential Romney running mate in the form of colorful Gov. Chris Christie. If Romney is forced to concede states like Colorado, Virginia and Iowa to Obama as November approaches, Christie might make a good addition to the ticket in an effort by the Republican candidate to open up a pathway to victory through Pennsylvania and New Jersey. It just seems like a real long shot, even if Romney is a pretty good fit for the moderate, wealthy suburbanites in South Jersey who keep reelecting the likes of Republican Reps. Frank LoBiondo and Chris Smith.
Maine splits its electoral votes by congressional district, just like Nebraska. The upstate district, ME-02, is more rural than the Portland-based ME-01, and is also less solidly Democratic. While the likes of The New York Times consider Maine a potential swing state, polls have given Obama a huge lead there — large enough that Romney’s chances of poaching an electoral vote seem pretty poor. But Republicans always try for ME-02, and as Romney is from the Northeast, he might have a better shot at it than Southerners Bush and McCain did. No worse than Likely Democratic for Obama, though.
My thoughts about Nevada were partially addressed earlier. The Silver State tends to vote more strongly for Democrats than public polls suggest, perhaps because most polls do not survey cell phone-only voters and many do not offer respondents a Spanish-language option. Many Nevada households lack landlines, and many Nevadans speak Spanish but not English fluently. New Mexico exhibits a similar polling effect, as does Hawaii.
Nevada also has the third-highest proportion of Mormons by total population of the 50 states. Mormons tend to vote Republican, Mormon communities are typically very organized and politically active, and the Mormon Romney is likely to enjoy even more enthusiasm among Mormon voters than the typical Republican candidate gets.
Nevada is being targeted extensively by the Obama campaign, even though I think it is Likely Democratic due to Obama’s strong polling performance, the awesome political organization of the Nevada Democratic Party and the tendency of polls to badly underestimate Democratic performance in the state. But the real reason for that may not be overconfidence in polls or worries about the Mormon vote, but the great amount of wealth in Las Vegas, the home base for many political money bundlers — quite a few of whom have donated generously to Democrats and Republicans alike in previous elections. Obama may not have much fear of losing Nevada this year, but he sure could use some financial backing from casino moguls and other business magnates in the Silver State.
Likely Republican states
The Likely Republican states are mostly based on my personal hunches. Obama mentioned Louisville, Kentucky’s largest city, alongside Orlando, Fla., and Charlotte, N.C., when naming cities where one of his administration’s programs had helped jobseekers during his State of the Union address in January. Campaign emails from OFA have mentioned Kentucky alongside Ohio and Florida among states where Republicans scored “Tea Party victories” in 2010 that Democrats want to roll back. Kentucky is doubtless very conservative territory, but Gore and Kerry did quite well in rural eastern Kentucky while Obama turned in a surprisingly strong performance in urban Jefferson and Fayette counties. If Obama can match Gore and Kerry’s strength in coal country while improving on his 2008 showing in the rapidly growing cities, taking advantage of Romney’s white-collar, patrician image, he actually could get reasonably close in the Bluegrass State. The bottom would really have to fall out over at the Romney campaign for that to happen, though.
Obama actually led by two points in a poll of South Carolina back in December. We have not seen public numbers from the state since then, though, and the campaigns’ lack of attention there suggests it is not actually a swing state this year. South Carolina has been slower to exhibit the same demographic trends that pushed Virginia and North Carolina into Obama’s column in 2008 and are contributing to Georgia’s increasing competitiveness. But OFA does have two field offices in the state, and the Democratic National Convention will be held in Charlotte, the media market of which covers part of South Carolina as well as much of eastern North Carolina.
If there has been any Alaska presidential polling, I have not seen it. The Last Frontier tends to get polled infrequently, and those polls are often unreliable, dramatically overestimating Democratic strength in Senate races in 2008 and 2010. But before then-Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska, was tapped as McCain’s running mate in 2008, Obama was polling well in the state, and there were whispers over the summer that he might campaign there. Once Palin joined the ticket, that talk ceased, and Obama lost Alaska badly. But the state’s electorate is similar to Montana’s, where PPP showed Obama just four points down last week, and in the absence of polling, I consider it Likely Republican just because it might be interesting.
Conclusion
So, even if the Tossup/Tilt Democratic and Tossup/Tilt Republican electoral votes were left unallocated, Obama would still win with 281 electoral votes. In other words, Romney could sweep all of the yellow states (plus NE-02) and still lose. He needs to make some of the light blue states competitive in order to beat Obama.
If the tilting states are forced into a camp, the map becomes a decisive victory for Obama, though not a 2008-level blowout.
Next time, the congressional races will be revisited. We will take a look at the gubernatorial elections as well, including the fast-approaching Wisconsin recall race.