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After drawing a map of North Carolina that contained 12 competitive districts, I wanted to see what could be done in other states.  Due mainly to south Texas, this map isn't quite as clean as my NC map, but I think it gets the job done.  See below.


Dallas area

TX-01 25.6% Obama 74.4% McCain
Safe Republican district in northeastern Texas.

TX-04 30.8% Obama 69.2% McCain
Safe Republican district based in Collin and Denton counties.

TX-06 26.3% Obama 73.7% McCain
Safe Republican district - Ft. Worth suburbs and points west.

TX-12 50.2% Obama 49.8% McCain
Fort Worth based Obama district.  31% Hispanic by VAP.  I would expect this to become more Dem over time.

TX-24 49.7% Obama 50.3% McCain
Another Fort Worth based district.  42% Black + Hispanic.

TX-26 48.4% Obama 51.6% McCain
This district stretches from southern Dallas county to Denton.  30% Hispanic.

TX-32 50.3% Obama 49.7 % McCain
Combines heavy Dem areas in Dallas with Republican leaning precincts in Denton and Collin.  30% Hispanic, 15% black.

TX-03 51.1% Obama 48.9% McCain
Yet another district stretching from Dallas up to Collin County.  

TX-30 52.9% Obama 47.1% McCain
At 50.6% black + hispanic, I guess this is technically a majority-minority district.  Probably in most years this can be expected to go Dem.

TX-11 52.2% Obama 47.8% McCain
This one is 48.6% black + hispanic.  One of the better opportunities for Dems in the state.

So this ends up with essentially 7 competitive districts and no safe districts in the Dallas/Fort Worth area.


Houston/San Antonio

TX-33 52.1% Obama 47.9% McCain
21.8% black + 36.4% hispanic = good opportunity for Democrats, but still in the competitive range based on presidential numbers.

TX-14 49.0% Obama 51.0% McCain
This is a Beaumont/Port Arthur/Galveston district that stretches up towards Houston.  The Dem average here is actually 51D-49R.

TX-29 49.2% Obama 50.8% McCain
This is one of several districts that combine dark blue areas in Houston with dark red areas in the burbs.  My thought is that there aren't too many swing voters here.  They're all highly polarized.

TX-09 48.9% Obama 51.1% McCain
Most of Fort Bend County plus some blue precincts in Houston.  20% black + 26% Hispanic + 16% Asian.

TX-07 50.5% Obama 49.5% McCain
Dark blue in Houston, purple in Bellaire, blue near Mission Bend and dark red around Bunker Hill village.  16% black, 30% hispanic, 14% asian.

TX-22 51.0% Obama 49.0% McCain
This is one of the most compact districts in the state.  Again combines dark blue areas in Houston with dark red areas out in the burbs.  14% black, 36% hispanic.

TX-18 50.0% Obama 50.0% McCain
North side of Houston.  McCain won this district by less than 900 votes.  21% black, 38% hispanic.

TX-35 47.9% Obama 52.1% McCain
This is a new district that stretched from Corpus Christi to Missouri City.  15% black, 39% hispanic.

TX-20 49.3% 50.7% McCain
Moving over to San Antonio, this is one of two districts that starts with blue areas in SA and ends with red areas in Comal County.  54% hispanic.

TX-21 50.9% Obama 49.1% McCain
This is the second San Antonio to Comal district.  53% hispanic.

TX-25 53.0% Obama 47.0% McCain
This Austin-to-San Antonio district is one of the Dems' best chances in the state.


South Texas

TX-34 54.1% Obama 45.9% McCain
Dark blue Austin is combined with dark red surrounding counties.  This district has the highest Obama percentage of any seat in the state.

TX-31 51.5% Obama 48.5% McCain
Another Austin + surrounding areas district.

TX-17 48.9% Obama 51.1% McCain
This is the squirreliest district in the state.  Killeen -> Temple -> Waco -> College Station -> Harris County.  Picks up all the blue areas in central Texas.

And now we come to the 4 districts which combine heavy Hispanic Dem south Texas with red counties near San Antonio:

TX-36 51.4% Obama 48.6% McCain
70% hispanic

TX-28 51.4% Obama 48.6% McCain
Ok, this district is pretty squirrelly too.  63% hispanic

TX-15 50.7% Obama 49.3% McCain
68% hispanic

TX-27 52.6% Obama 47.4% McCain
70% hispanic


Full state

Now we get to the rest of the state and seats I haven't mentioned yet:

TX-16 50.7% Obama 49.3% McCain
El Paso gets split and the 16th and 23rd are stretched out.  The 16th becomes a 65% hispanic district that starts in El Paso and ends out in Midland.

TX-23 50.3% Obama 49.7% McCain
Starts in El Paso, down the Big Bend, and up to San Angelo.  68% hispanic.

TX-13 23.2% Obama 76.8% McCain
Safe Republican panhandle district.

TX-19 27.5% Obama 72.5% McCain
Another safe Republican west Texas district.

TX-05 26.8% Obama 73.2% McCain
Safe Republican central Texas district.

TX-10 25.8% Obama 74.2% McCain
Safe Republican central Texas district.

TX-02 27.1% Obama 72.9% McCain
Beaumont to Houston dark red district.

TX-08 34.9% Obama 65.1% McCain
Due to some ancestral Dem areas in east Texas, I tried to draw a district that may have been competitive looking at the Average numbers.  No deal.  The average is still 40.3-59.7.

So that's my Texas.  In theory, this could go 0D-36R or 27D-9R.  Of the 27 competitive districts, 8 of them have a hispanic majority and 15 more of them have a white VAP under 50%.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MKSinSA, lordpet8
  •  close to a dem gerrymander (0+ / 0-)

    Since North Carolina is roughly an evenly split state, it's a lot easier to make almost entirely toss-up districts.  In Texas, on the other hand, you have to make 9 GOP vote sinks, 7 of which are over 70% McCain in order to make most of the seats tossups.  If Democrats were drawing the map, other than ensuring that their incumbents didn't get put in danger, it wouldn't look too much different from this.

    •  VRA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MKSinSA, TDDVandy

      Makes it difficult to draw this exact map.
      I'm wondering, with the hispanic majority/plurality seats, if there would be many districts that went dem in presidential years and republican in off years.  This map would certainly be interesting.

      NY-22 (old and new)

      by elucas730 on Sat May 12, 2012 at 03:44:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep. (0+ / 0-)

        Actually that IS the case with the current TX-23.  Obama carried it in 2008, then Rick Perry carried it in 2010.  (I'm at a loss to think of two more diametrically opposed politicians.)

        28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Sun May 13, 2012 at 12:30:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Nick Lampson (0+ / 0-)

    would win your 14th very easily, I would think. Same with Chet Edwards in your 17th.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Barrett/Mitchell on June 5th, 2012!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon May 14, 2012 at 07:13:09 PM PDT

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