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Leading Off:

CA-26: The DCCC hasn't filed any independent expenditure reports in CA-26 yet, but Republican-turned-independent Linda "Rocky Road" Parks has posted copies of a flyer attacking her that lists the D-Trip as the payer. (Scroll down to no. 7 on that page. No. 8 is also allegedly from the DCCC.) This is an interesting development, because this would only be the second primary in the nation where the DCCC has openly stepped in (FL-22 being the other). (Other outside groups, though, like the House Majority PAC and EMILY's List, have already gotten involved here on behalf of Dem Assemblywoman Julia Brownley.)

I welcome the move, though, because as you know, California no longer has proper party primaries; instead, the top-two vote-getters in June, regardless of party, advance to the November ballot. As we've mentioned repeatedly, Democrats are in danger of not having anyone to carry their banner forward in the general election because Parks and Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland could both make it to the second round, benefitting from a field that features four Dems potentially splitting the vote. That means Democrats need to tear town Parks—and bolster Brownley, unquestionably our strongest candidate. Interestingly, it looks like one of the mailers hits Parks from the left and another from the right, which seems like a clever squeeze play.

By the way, before you decide that you could conceivably live with a Rep. Linda Parks, be aware that—just like Angus King—she's refused to say which party she'd caucus with if she's elected to Congress. Given that she was a registered Republican until just a few months ago, I don't doubt for a minute that she'd side with the GOP if it meant being in the majority. With Brownley, we know where her loyalties lie.


MO-Sen: Dick Armey's FreedomWorks, happy to claim an outsized share of credit for Richard Mourdock's victory in Indiana, is now moving on to another Republican Senate primary. They've decided to endorse self-funding businessman John Brunner, because he has "the deepest intellectual background in free market economics" in the three-person field. I think this only helps turn a very screwed-up race even screwier—all the Republicans running are so badly flawed, and the more they fight it out amongst themselves, the better.

WI-Sen: Rasmussen: Tammy Baldwin (D): 38 (44), Tommy Thompson (R): 50 (48); Tammy Baldwin (D): 42 (48), Mark Neumann (R): 44 (40); Tammy Baldwin (D): 45 (48), Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 41 (40).


WA-Gov: SurveyUSA's previous poll from February showed Dem Jay Inslee is serious trouble, but their newest poll of the gubernatorial race in Washington is back to showing a very close race, with Republican Rob McKenna leading 40-38. Click the link for our full writeup, which also includes numbers from the candidates' new financial reports. (David Jarman)

WI-Gov: I've gotten a zillion emails about it, but in case you haven't seen it yet, Wisconsin Democrats are very fired up about a new video showing GOP Gov. Scott Walker telling billionaire Diane Hendricks (who's donated $500K to his campaign) that he would "divide and conquer" labor unions over collective bargaining as a "first step" toward turning Wisconsin into a right-to-work state (which is that Hendricks had asked him about). A Walker spokesman now claims "he does not have an interest in pushing right-to-work legislation," but he sponsored such legislation while in the Assembly and has refused to say whether he'd veto such a bill if the legislature passed one.


AZ-03: Businessman David Crowe, a recent convert from the GOP to the Democratic Party, is dropping his primary challenge to Rep. Raul Grijalva. He's instead endorsing former state Sen. Amanda Aguirre. (Physician Juan Manuel Arreguin is also in the race.) Crowe had loaned his campaign a bit of money ($75K), but it was hard to see him having much of a chance. Aguirre's only raised some $31K, so an upset seems quite remote.

AZ-04: And there you have it, folks: Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu is dropping his congressional bid and will instead seek re-election to his current post. As you undoubtedly remember, back in February, a former lover, Jose Orozco, accused Babeu of threatening to have him deported back to his native Mexico if he didn't remain silent about their relationship. Babeu denied the allegations but did come out as gay—and the whole episode threatened to utterly derail his congressional ambitions, especially seeing as he was running in the Republican primary.

But that wasn't the only issue dogging Babeu, who also came under fire for his management of a defunct private school in Massachusetts that former students had said resembled an abusive cult. And he and his aides are also under investigation for possible violations of the Hatch Act, which prohibits certain civil servants from engaging in partisan political activities. Babeu's fundraising also plummeted after Orozco made his charges public: He took in $263K in the fourth quarter of 2011 (after entering the race in late October) but just $144K in the first quarter of 2012.

His departure leaves a two-way fight between Rep. Paul Gosar, who carpetbagged into the safer 4th from the swingy 1st, and state Sen. Ron Gould, who recently received the endorsement of the Club for Growth. Unfortunately in this dark-red district, the winner of the August GOP primary is all but guaranteed to prevail in November as well, but if the CfG goes after Gosar hammer-and-tongs, it could nevertheless be a fun race.

KY-04: GOP Sen. Rand Paul's been busy lately with endorsements in races across the country, but now he's offering one in his home state of Kentucky. In fact, he's filming an ad on behalf of Lewis County Judge-executive Thomas Massie, a favorite of libertarians, and says he'll soon follow up with a formal endorsement.

Meanwhile, Massie's two chief rivals for the Republican nomination in this open seat, state Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington and Boone County Judge-Executive Gary Moore, are grumping about the new libertarian-minded super PAC, Liberty for All, that's spending almost half a million bucks to air this new ad on behalf of Massie. (This is the group that's financed by a 21-year-old college student who inherited a bundle from his grandfather.) I don't think their whining will get them anywhere, though—it usually isn't a strong tactic.

MI-06: Anti-feminist icon Phyllis Schlafly's moment in the sun passed long ago, and her Eagle Forum is only a minor player in conservative politics these days. But they're endorsing ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who will take all the help he can get in his uphill battle to dethrone Rep. Fred Upton in the GOP primary. (Note that Upton is getting help from the US Chamber of Commerce, which launched a new positive spot on his behalf as part of their 21-race ad blitz last week.)

MN-06: It's certainly silly, and I doubt it'll come up on the campaign trail, but I did find Michele Bachmann's whole Swiss citizenship debacle—or as my colleague David Jarman put it, her "Swiss Miss-take"—pretty lulzy. Politico has some amusing quotes from wingnuts who were absolute apoplectic over Bachmann's act of "treason," which apparently prompted her about-face over seeking dual citizenship.

MO-02: Though it was made somewhat bluer in redistricting, Missouri's 2nd Congressional District is still very unforgiving turf for Democrats. But former Kirkwood City Councilman Harold Whitfield is going to give it a go, which probably makes him the most prominent of the four Dems in the field in this open seat race. The likely Republican nominee is former state GOP chair Ann Wagner, who faces some nominal primary opposition but has over a million bucks on-hand.

NJ-11: It's a tough-as-hell race, but Democrat John Arvanites, the former mayor of tiny Roseland (pop. 6K) just launched a challenge to veteran Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, a member of the class of 1994.

NY-21: Ever since ProPublica's vastly over-hyped story about how Democrats tried to influence redistricting in California last year, I've approached their exposés with a bit of caution—but I've gotta admit, this piece about Dem Rep. Bill Owens doesn't look too good. The short version is that Owens and his wife took a trip to Taiwan in December and January which he was invited on by a local university, but which was at least in part arranged by a lobbying firm. That may have violated a rule passed by Congress in the wake of the Jack Abramoff scandal which forbids members from participating in "officially-connected travel that is in any way planned, organized, requested, or arranged by a lobbyist."

Owens' pushback was quite weak, and later on Friday, he said he'd reimburse the sponsor of his trip, which cost $22K. Predictably, of course, Owens' Republican opponent, Matt Doheny, is already trying to make hay of this. We'll see where it goes.

RI-01: Local reporter Ted Nesi notes that businessman Anthony Gemma, the self-described "conservative Democrat" who is challenging Rep. David Cicilline in the primary, has almost one million followers on Twitter. Obviously he's not really that popular, though. I mean, the guy's runs a small marketing company—he's not some celebrity. Hell, even Mitt Romney has fewer than half a million followers. So I'd be willing to bet dollars-to-donuts that Gemma's paid for his bogus legions of followers, just like Newt Gingrich did. Pathetic.

TX-14: The Texas Tribune offers some local color on the huge GOP field (nine candidates) vying to replace Ron Paul, looking at both how the new iteration of the 14th District is different from the old, and how most of the Republicans running also distinguish themselves from Dr. Paul. (Dem ex-Rep. Nick Lampson also gets a little love.)

Other Races:

OR-AG: There aren't any House races generating any heat in Oregon's Tuesday primary election; if anything, the main event may be the Attorney General's primary, which is for all the marbles because the Republicans couldn't summon up a token candidate (especially odd considering it's an open seat). SurveyUSA's out with a poll of that race, and finds ex-appellate judge Ellen Rosenblum leading ex-US Attorney Dwight Holton 52-27. (Rosenblum seems to be a bit to the left of Holton, especially on the medical marijuana issue.) (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Census: I know it's fashionable to decry the GOP as "know-nothings," but that's because they keep doing things which indicate that they truly want to know nothing about the world around them. This time, their target is the American Community Survey, the ongoing sample that supplements the decennial census; House Republicans just passed an amendment that cuts the ACS from the Census Bureau's budget. The ACS is important not only because it provides constant adjustments of population and race numbers, but also because it completely replaced the Census's long form, meaning it's the only source of more detailed demographic information.

Of course, it's worth noting that this attack is unlikely to survive the Senate, not just because it's Dem-controlled but because Republican-leaning lobby groups (such as the National Federation of Independent Business) are likely to step in and disabuse a few Republican congresspersons' notions here. If you're a small businessman getting started and you, say, want to send your direct mail to zip codes in your metropolitan area that are  at a particular income level or are populated by a particular kind of worker, and you don't have the tens of thousands of dollars handy to commission your own market research, what do you do? You crack open census data for free, the kind gathered through the ACS. I kinda doubt the Chamber of Commerce or NFIB wants to see its members flying blind without access to useful marketing data. (David Jarman)

WATN?: Iraq veteran Tommy Sowers, who raised a ton of money running in MO-08 two years ago but got utterly smoked by GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, was just nominated by President Obama to become assistant secretary for public and intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Veterans Affairs. (You may recall his famous "combat bible" ad.)

Ad Watch:

OH-Sen: Majority PAC throws the kitchen sink at Republican Josh Mandel, leading off with a clip of him promising to serve all four years of his term as state treasurer—when of course he began running for Senate just a few months after taking office last year.

AR-01, AR-04: KingofSpades flags two new Arkansas ads. The first is from Dem state Rep. Clark Hall running in AR-01, a spot in which he takes a poke at the standard 30-second time limit for political ads by having his wife time him on a stopwatch while he recites a whole mess of things about his background. It's not without its charm. In AR-04, Democratic attorney Q. Byrum Hurst strikes a populist theme about Medicare, Social Security, and tax breaks for the wealthy. Hurst sounds pretty authentic when he speaks (unlike so many stiff pols), perhaps honed from years in the courtroom. Not a bad spot.

AZ-08: The NRCC's newest ad repeats the same negative attacks on Democrat Ron Barber, namely that he's in pocket of Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, and that his support for Obamacare means "more than 342,000 Arizona seniors could lose some of their Medicare coverage." I'd be curious to see the support for that claim (the ad just vaguely points to the "Kaiser Family Foundation"), because it seems sketchy enough to get this ad knocks off the air.

KY-04: Super PAC Liberty for All's new ad praises Thomas Massie for being a "proven conservative."

NM-01: Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham declares that the Republican "war on women stops right now, right here in New Mexico."

Independent Expenditures:

OH-Sen:  Majority PAC is putting $280K behind their latest ad hitting Republican Josh Mandel (linked above).

TX-Sen: The Conservative Renewal PAC is pumping $173K into new print ads boosting Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and smacking his Republican primary opponents, Tom Leppert and Ted "Calgary" Cruz.

TX-Sen: The Club For Growth is going in with a not-insignificant $650K TV ad buy against David Dewhurst, as well as $220K in internet advertising against him. (The TV ad, which lambastes Dewhurst as a "moderate", can be viewed here.)

AZ-08: House Majority PAC places $108K in ad buys targeting Republican Jesse Kelly (part of a broader and previously-announced $340K air campaign).

CA-26: House Majority PAC continues its yeoman work here, putting another $141K in ad buys bolstering Democrat Julia Brownley and another $22K in mailers hitting Independent Susan Parks, bringing their total tab in this race to over $340,000.

CA-31: A group calling itself "Restoring Our Community" is putting $48K into ground campaign expenditures on behalf of Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D).

ID-02: The American Dental Association has spent another $28K on direct mail in support of GOP Rep. Mike Simpson in advance of his upcoming primary.

(James L)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon May 14, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Obama goes after Romney (9+ / 0-)

    OH, PA, IA, VA, CO according to AP.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon May 14, 2012 at 05:12:01 AM PDT

    •  A two minute ad, nice. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, eps62, itskevin

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon May 14, 2012 at 05:23:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good ad. Mark Murray of NBC First Read... (7+ / 0-)

        ...smartly pointed out this morning on Twitter that essentially the same ad worked for Newt's SuperPAC and earned him South Carolina.  And that was in a Republican primary, with a GOP electorate less hostile to Mitt's Bain experience than a general electorate.

        Personally, I've watched so many of these essentially identical ads and videos online, by Ted Kennedy's '94 campaign and then Newt's SuperPAC, that I've become desensitized to them.  But most ordinary voters in swing states have never seen this before, and this ad should work as intended.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon May 14, 2012 at 07:10:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Romney response strikes me as awfully weak (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, DCCyclone

          “The Obama campaign is going to do everything they can to distract voters from the fact that their policies are not working. President Obama can't come close to matching the many years of experience that Mitt Romney has as a private businessman so he has chosen to attack it.”

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:05:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Has anyone questioned the constitutionality... (0+ / 0-)

    ...of top-two primaries?  I'm not exactly sure what the claim would be, but in this country "unconstitutional" is often shorthand for "I really don't like something" and there must be a lot of people who don't like top-two primaries.

    Romney '12: The Power of Crass Commands You!

    by Rich in PA on Mon May 14, 2012 at 05:43:23 AM PDT

    •  They are governed by state law (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA

      and primaries in particular can have pretty much whatever rules the state wants to impose. There would be no federal constitutional question, as nobody's voting rights are being infringed upon, so unless it violates the CA state constitution I dont see any legal challenge to it.

      •  At what point does irony violate someone's rights? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, eps62

        If primaries are about political parties' representation on the GE ballot, it's odd that a primary outcome could take a party off the GE ballot entirely.  I guess the parties have gone along with it, either institutionally or through their legislators, so an individual voter would have no recourse, but it is weird in the sell-yourself-into-slavery sense: you (the parties, in this case) might see some merit to it, but should it be allowed?

        Romney '12: The Power of Crass Commands You!

        by Rich in PA on Mon May 14, 2012 at 06:01:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think primaries serve the function of (0+ / 0-)

          narrowing the field, and the way that we have structured them is such that we typically have  a ballot line for one candidate from each political party. But if you think about it, the set up really isn't any different from a non partisan local election where the purpose of the primary is just to cut down the number of candidates, not to nominate for a particular party.

          I have a feeling this won't last long. It seems like they're just going along with it and give it a shot to see what happens this go round.

          •  The top two also ensures a majority (0+ / 0-)

            for the winner. (absent a write-in campaign, of course)

          •  I think your feeling is wrong (0+ / 0-)

            The people of the state of Washington were pissed when we lost our blanket primary, and I think any move to eliminate top-two will result in a severe backlash through the initiative process. This all happened because the political parties tried to shove a closed primary down our throats. I would not be surprised if the reaction to a challenge to the top-two would not be either the elimination of primaries altogether, in favor of an IRV general, or even making all elected offices non-partisan.

            •  ugh (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dc1000, Zack from the SFV

              non-partisan offices and open primaries are such bullshit.  Parties serve a purpose: to help voters understand the differences between candidates, and primaries serve a purpose: to allow members of a party to choose who will represent them.  Non-partisan elections allow more room for stealth candidates to mislead people about how conservative or progressive they are, and open primaries/top two allow non-party members to promote candidates who are not representative of the parties but will still carry the party label.

              Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

              by James Allen on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:06:38 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Washington State Initiative 872, (6+ / 0-)

      establishing the top-two primary in said state, was upheld by the Supreme Court in Washington State Grange v. Washington State Republican Party.

    •  California PPIC (0+ / 0-)
      Could an open primary system help end California’s political gridlock? Advocates of the "top-two-vote-getter” reform on California’s June 2010 ballot believe that it can. Others are skeptical. Eric McGhee finds that TTVG’s overall impact on California’s political landscape would probably be modest—although a small moderating effect might build over time. The analysis is based on open primary experiences in California and elsewhere.

      A full report in a PDF is available there.  I believe the intent of the TTVG effort is to encourage more voters to get to the polls and make it easier for moderate candidates to have a shot.

      I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

      by Satya1 on Mon May 14, 2012 at 06:56:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm a broken record .. a broken record .. a broken (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, eps62, stevenaxelrod

      record.  Why?  Because the first reaction I have to this discussion is

      Instant Runoff Voting.  

      No worries about splitting the vote among too many candidates.  No "wasted" votes.  No voting for the least worst, just because you don't think your candidate can win.

      With the situation as it is, I think the California Democrats are missing an opportunity here.  They should prepare a slate of unknowns, have them re-register as Republicans, and get on the ballot.  Legal name changes could add to the fun;  Harold Schwartzenegger, Georgina Bush, Joe Limbaugh.

      Two Democrats vs ten Republicans?  That should help dilute the Republican votes.

      I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

      by tle on Mon May 14, 2012 at 07:02:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  IVR is mostly just to help Liberals feel better (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        It wouldn'y have a noticeable impact on our electoral system. If anything, it makes it harder for an outsider to win, as they would need a majority, rather than a plurality.  (Compare France and Canada, for example.  Both have strong third party movements.  In Canada, which used first past the post, they win election sometimes.  In France, which uses top two runoff, they do not.)

        If we really want to shake things up, we'd switch to some sort of mix member proportional system, like the use in Germany and New Zealand, where you get two ballots, one for a specific candidate and one for a preferred party and additional seats are allocated based on the proportion of the party votes.

        29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        by Marcus Graly on Mon May 14, 2012 at 07:44:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  DCCC oppo researchers (16+ / 0-)

    should check the security camera footage of Linda Parks's local Baskin Robbins.  If they can establish that her favorite flavor of ice cream actually is not Rocky Road, it will be incredibly damaging to her credibility.

  •  IN-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, Losty, Xenocrypt

    Ok, Hoosiers, I know marriage equality is not a political winner in your state, but tell me, was this 100% necessary? Couldn't he have given some dodge like "I oppose gay marriage but this amendment is unnecessary because blah blah blah"? He's to the right of Renee freakin' Ellmers! and given that the amendment bans civil unions too, that would have been an easy escape chute for Gregg (since it's very hard to imagine that a majority of Hoosiers oppose all legal recognition for gay couples).

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon May 14, 2012 at 06:40:49 AM PDT

  •  Majority PAC website (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    royally sucks!  Don't they have any techies who can build them a nice looking, functional site?

    Isn't DC swarming with leftie techies looking for work?

    The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

    by not2plato on Mon May 14, 2012 at 06:41:45 AM PDT

  •  IE Report (0+ / 0-)

    Nice addition, would love to see more of that in the future.

  •  WI-Sen: Fitz wins majority for RPW endorsement (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, dc1000

    But he fell short of the 60% needed to receive the endorsement at the state convention.

  •  WI-Recall: Fitz says Compas's husband made her run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    In other Wisconsin news, Scott "Big Fitz" Fitzgerald stuck his foot in his mouth, saying that Lori Compas couldn't possibly have been the driving force behind his recall and her subsequent senate campaign, and that her husband put her up to it.

  •  although Parks is going through contortions (4+ / 0-)

    to avoid saying who she'd caucus with or who she'd even vote for speaker of the House, she was a registered Republican for 16 years and has tweeted that her most admired politician is Olympia Snowe.

    Here's a local story on the national attention fwiw.

    The world is on pace for 11 degrees F warming. Nothing else in politics matters. @RL_Miller

    by RLMiller on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:05:15 AM PDT

    •  she couldn't have had two and said (0+ / 0-)

      something like Olympia Snowe and Diane Feinstein?

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:14:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That Dem mailer... (0+ / 0-)

      It's hard not to think "Wait, they're going after her for having messy closets?"

      Also awesome: That the "deputy political director for the National Republican Congressional Committee" is actually named "Brock McCleary".  This was interesting:

      "We know Pennsylvania, we know Ohio. We know the terrain," McCleary said. "Both parties, we're trying to figure out California. We're trying to figure out where the good bets are and where the bad bets are."

      McCleary calls the 26th "one of my favorites," noting Strickland is one of the party's top non-incumbent candidates, running in "one of the top 10 districts we have in the country."

      Last week, state Sen. Strickland was included among the first crop of GOP candidates to receive the NRCC's "Young Gun" designation. That will ensure not just party support, McCleary said, but also will serve as a signal to GOP super PACs.

      "If you look at the last cycle's round of Young Gun candidates, they tended to be the ones that the majority of outside money followed," he said.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:31:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Walker's pal Diane Hendricks (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eps62, itskevin, stevenaxelrod

    is a billionaire - worth about 2.8 billion, making her one of Wisconsin's wealthiest individuals.  Nonetheless, her company, the one at the foundation of all this wealth paid no state income tax during 2005 through 2008.  No information is yet available about the years 2009 forward.

  •  CT-Sen: I'm at my mother's in CT-05 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and I saw this rather vapid Linda McMahon ad, with the theme of "I wasn't always insanely wealthy, you know":

    I liked how she mentioned "the entertainment business I founded", rather than "WWE".

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:19:44 AM PDT

  •  Have we not seen this MO-Sen internal yet? (5+ / 0-)

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:26:07 AM PDT

    •  High undecided rate (0+ / 0-)

      Since it's an internal, leads me to think he didn't push the Republican leaners too hard.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:32:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't do much for me. (0+ / 0-)

      It confirms McCaskill is nowhere near 50%, which is consistent with other polling.  Although I am bullish on our prospects for holding the Senate overall, I continue to rate this as the Republicans' second best pickup opportunity.  McCaskill has a financial advantage and a weak GOP field, but there is no getting around that she is unpopular.

  •  NY Siena poll: Obama 57 Romney 37 (4+ / 0-)

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Mon May 14, 2012 at 08:36:02 AM PDT

  •  CA-26: It's very strategically planned (3+ / 0-)

    Absentees went out last week and a lot of people got a mailer at the same time their ballot came like I did, so they timed it right.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon May 14, 2012 at 09:07:24 AM PDT

  •  Shame on you, LA Times (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, stevenaxelrod

    I'm glad  that the D-Trip, House Majority, Emily's List, etc., are endorsing Brownley and attacking "sham" indie, crybaby Linda Parks. If Parks and Strickland become the top two finishers, Dems can kiss this race, a key to the "Drive to 25," "goodbye." And shame on the LA Times for putting out a  pretzel/twisted endorsement of Parks as some sort of "GOO GOO," Good Govt. representative, which she is not. In this day and age, we need a strong Dem. to fight obstructionist GOPers, not some "indie" who will flip GOP should she win and bellyaches ,with Strickland's aid, about  Dem. "negative/dirty" tactics. Keep it up D-Trip and House Majority Pac, and the others. Go Brownley, Fran Pavleythis's progressive successor! For more on Parks, "wing nut" Strickland, and the Ca. 26th CD, read  

  •  Better poll numbers on Obama and gay marriage: (0+ / 0-)
    May 14, 2012

     Most Not Influenced by Obama's Views on Gay Marriage
     A new Pew Research survey finds 52% of Americans say President Obama's expression of support for same sex marriage did not affect their opinion of the president, while 25% say they feel less favorably toward Obama and 19% feel more favorably.

    Only a -6% differential. I believe an earlier one had 13%.
    60 no effect, 26 negative, 13 positive. Now
    52 no effect, 25 negative, 19 positive.
  •  thanks for polling on inslee race (0+ / 0-)

    This gives me optimism that the Dems will keep the governor's mansion for another four years with an Inslee victory.  I don't understand McKenna's strengths as a candidate, but I will say that he is not as slimmy as Dino Rossi in 2008 but neither is he as charismatic.

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