270 to win has added a cool new feature listing different combinations that add up to 270 electoral votes when there are 12 or fewer swing states.
www.270towin.com
Let us begin with some absurdly favorable assumptions to Rmoney and see where that lands us.
We will define the swing states as : Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
This is ridiculously favorable to rmoney (of www.RomneyEconomics.com ) .
We start with 227 electoral votes and they start with 191 electoral votes.
This gives us 42 combinations that lead to a win .
They have 31 combinations that lead to a win.
So, even with these absurd assumptions, we have many more ways to win.
Of the above states, the only ones that Romney has a significant chance to win in my opinion are Forida and North Carolina. Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are likely to be double digit wins or almost double digits. I fail to see any way at all that Romney wins Ohio. That alone sinks him. cf www.RomneyEconomics.com . His support for the anti union bill hurts him badly here. And the economy in Ohio is better than many places. POTUS saving manufacturing helps here a lot. Nevada is done - demographics and the foreclosure problem. Mitt's position makes him a candidate who cannot win Nevada. He is done there. Iowa - well Mitt is so weak there that he may not even try to win it. We know this. He knows it. He lost it in the primaries to Rick Santorum for the love of ... Pennsylvania is fool's gold for RMoney as it was for McCain. Colorado is not a very good state for President Obama and previous polling showed him up 10. He won it by 9 and nothing has happened to take it away from it. Again, demographics are trending in his favor and he fits the flavor of Colorado well. Organization will make certain that he wins the state even if it is close (early voting was huge for him in 2008 in Colorado). The state was largely decided before election day. Mitt's New Hampshire strength is very overrated. Polling gives President Obama a good edge there. North Carolina will be very competitive. The convention will help. Mitt won't find the trees to be of the right height. He is not a Southerner and has trouble connecting to people, especially in the South. In the rest of the South, hatred of President Obama means that won't matter, but in North Carolina, it will.
President Obama won Virginia by 6 points, is above water and at 50% approval with demographic continuing to trend his way. His support for the military and the way that he has kept America safe keep this as a state that President Obama will win. Florida will be close. The Cuban Republican community there will continue to be a thorn in our side. However, organization and Mitt's endorsement of the Ryan budget will help us.
Mitt was facing rank novices. He is now facing the GrandMaster.
Let's look at some of our combinations that work :
I will omit the ones with Florida and North Carolina.
1-3 PA + Ohio + 1 of Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, or Iowa
4-6 PA + VA + CO + 1 of Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire
7 PA + VA + NV + IA
8 PA + VA + NH + IA
9-11 OH + VA + CO + 1 of IA, or NV, or NH
12 OH + VA + NV + IA
13 PA + CO + NV + IA + NH
14 OH + CO + NV + IA + NH
David Plouffe, in his book, The Audacity to Win, described John McCain's problem as that of a goal keeper who may be able to stop most shots, but is unlikely to be able to stop all shots. This problem applies equally to RMoney.
Consider also, that in solutions 9-12 and 14, we find RMoney winning Pennsylvania, something I find quite unrealistic. And RMoney still loses.
I find each of these combinations probable. I find the thesis that he can prevent all 14 of these combinations from taking place literally incredible.
Let us look now at what RMoney must do :
He's got a lot of work to do and I don't think that he can do it at all.
I don't find any of his combinations realistic.
Let's see what we got here:
1-6 start with him winning Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, all of them. Not going to happen.
Next.
7-12 : RMoney wins Florida and Pennsylvania and then some combination of states like : Colorado (or Virginia) and Nevada (or New Hampshire or Iowa).
No.
Try again. Notice that we do not have 1 of the following states stuff happening here.
Suppose that he had a 50 / 50 chance in the states listed above. I don't think so, but suppose he did. These combinations all have at least 4 states. 2 to the fourth power is 16. That gives him a 6% chance (1 in 16). And his chances in many of these states are much, much lower than 50%.
17-26 We have Florida and either Ohio or Pennsylvania and 4 other states.
This is like tossing a fair coin and getting heads six times in a row. Winning 6 swing states ?
27-29 have Rmoney winning Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina and 2 other states. Dream on.
30 and 31 have Rmoney winning 7 states. This is 1 in 128.
And we are done here.
That is it. Hope Rmoney's book tour sux after he loses.
Don't forget to check out www.RomneyEconomics.com .
Go President Obama !!!
6:54 AM PT: Just for clarity, the number of combinations came from 270 to win. They were not counting how many combinations of the swing states produce an EV total greater than 270. They were counting how many combinations of swing states take us across that threshold. What they are counting does not fully reflect just how favorably position President Obama is in. But even this way of looking at it portends a great November for us.