Editor's Note: This was already diaried today by joelgp. I'll keep this diary up for a bit more information and background on local races. But please recommend and comment on the joelgp diary if you're interested in discussing the horse race in Tennessee.
Vanderbilt University's Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions has a new poll out that shows President Obama in a virtual dead heat with likely GOP nominee Willard "Mitt" Romney.
The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The survey, conducted May 2-9 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Vanderbilt, had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Republican leaders in Tennessee tried to downplay the significance of the poll, spinning the poll's findings as "laughable".
The registered voter numbers were slightly more favorable for Romney, who polled ahead of Obama among all registered voters by a margin of 47-40%.
Former Democratic Party treasurer Bill Freeman, who recently hosted an intimate high-dollar fundraiser for Obama 2012 with Vice President Biden in attendance, touted the close margin in Tennessee as a sign of a tightening in the race.
We’ve watched it go from a solid-Republican (state) to a leaning-Republican to, we believe, a toss-up state now. We think we’re just a point or two behind and that winning Tennessee is in our grasp. And we’re especially excited about what that’ll mean to the down-ticket races across the state.
The 2012 election seems poised to be a landslide loss for Tennessee Democrats in the state legislature, as several high-profile Democrats have
announced their plans to retire, including State Senator Andy Berke (who will
run for mayor of Chattanooga), long-time House speaker Jimmy Naifeh, and nine-term incumbent State Representative Mike McDonald. Redistricting has also impacted the electoral map in Tennessee, as Republicans used their dominance in both houses of the legislature to consolidate gains and force Democrats to run against one another in the primary this August.
While Republicans have taken steps to ensure their continuing electoral dominance in the state, it's unclear what legislative achievements they can point to in the last session. No significant legislation was passed to spur job creation, and while unemployment claims in the state continue to slowly drop, underemployment and long-term unemployment have created a significant drag on the economy. And with Recovery Act funds running out, it's unclear how the Republicans will be able to fund infrastructure projects, public education, and other initiatives to draw better jobs to the state.