If you had been waiting on pins and needles for the state of play in the pivotal Vermont gubernatorial election, or wondering which Democrat had the edge in the (legitimately) competitive open seat in NM-01, today was your day.
Amid other presidential polling (including three new national polls in addition to the daily trackers), the downballot races get a deserved glance today, as well.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (49-46)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (NBC/WSJ): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-44)
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Romney d. Obama (45-44)
PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-42)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (PPP): Jeff Flake (R) 48, Richard Carmona (D) 35; Wil Cardon (R) 40, Carmona 37
AZ-SEN--R (PPP): Jeff Flake 42, Wil Cardon 20
HI-SEN--D (Public Strategy Group for Case): Ed Case 46, Mazie Hirono 45
MA-SEN (Hartstad Research for the DSCC): Elizabeth Warren (D) 46, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46
NJ-09--D (Garin-Hart-Yang for Pascrell): Steve Rothman 44, Bill Pascrell 43
NM-01--D (GQR for Lujan-Grisham): Eric Griego 35, Michelle Lujan-Grisham 35, Marty Chavez 23
NC-GOV (SurveyUSA): Pat McCrory (R) 44, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (Lib) 7
VT-GOV (Castleton State College for WCAX-TV): Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) 60, Randy Brock (R) 27
WI-GOV (GQR for We Are Wisconsin): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 47
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
- Those national polls that looked rather pessimistic for the Democrats last week have moderated somewhat in the first half of this week. The Gallup tracker, which has been the more consistent of the two daily tracking polls, has had the race in an essential deadlock, with neither candidate forging more than a two-point edge in recent days. But the Rasmussen tracker has gone from a respectable lead for Mitt Romney to a narrow Obama lead over the past week or so. The PPP weekly poll done on behalf of Daily Kos and SEIU, as has been the case for the past few weeks, edged a single point in the direction of the challenger. The new national polls out today from ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ, meanwhile, showed movement towards Mitt Romney, but with a big caveat. The ABC/WaPo poll cut a seven-point Obama lead down to just three points, while the NBC/WSJ poll whittled the president's advantage from six points to four points. However, the previous efforts for both of those media outlets was in mid-April, before Romney reaped the mercurial benefits of a post-primary bump in his support.
- In what can be seen as a narrative-changing poll, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (on behalf of the labor-backed "We Are Wisconsin") released a poll showing the lead for Gov. Scott Walker in the Wisconsin recall elections shaved down to three points. What's more, it shows an advantage for Democratic challenger Tom Barrett among Independents, suggesting that if the Democrats can get their base to show up, that could be the difference between a narrow win, and a narrow defeat. Also of interest: Barrett's pollster (Fred Yang, of Garin-Hart-Yang) also claims that his polling has the race considerably closer than the recent public polling (which gave Walker a lead ranging from 5-9 points). He also explains why: he argues that those polls were conducted before the recent media campaign which sought to rough up Walker in advance of the recall election on June 5th.
- Downballot, we get polls in two races that had not been polled (at least, according to my database) in quite some time. In Vermont, giving the nod to a statewide official does not appear to have given the GOP much traction: a new poll out of the state gives freshman incumbent Gov. Peter Shumlin high marks, and a huge lead. Meanwhile, any fears in New Mexico that a split between the two more progressive candidates would hand the Democratic nomination to former Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez appear to be unfounded, if you put stock into that GQR poll conducted on behalf of Michelle Lujan-Grisham. Amusingly, both of her opponents rushed to leak out their own internal nums within hours of Lujan-Grisham dropping hers. In a shocker, both men produced data that showed them leading the three-candidate field.
- The DSCC dropped some coin on a new poll in the high-profile Massachusetts Senate race, and find the race deadlocked. They also pointed out that the recent flap du jour regarding Elizabeth Warren has had virtually no net effect on perceptions of her. This would seem to be an exercise in inoculation, an effort to try to beat back the perception that the Native American "issue" has exacted a cost on the challenger.
- Finally, we also get an intriguing prospect out of Arizona, where GOP challenger Wil Cardon appears to be gaining an ounce or two of traction against frontrunner Jeff Flake (who, in a bit of a downer for Senate Democrats, has a better lead against Democrat Richard Carmona than other recent polls had hinted). Flake's 2-to-1 edge over Cardon may seem impressive, but it is actually underwhelming when you consider that the last time PPP surveyed the Grand Canyon State, Flake had a 49-point edge over his opponent.