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If one looks at the latest poll out of Texas, among registered voters the outcome is in line with what previous pollsters have found during this cycle: a lead for Mitt Romney that is quite a bit less than the margins enjoyed by John McCain in 2008 (7-8 points).

However, if a "likely voter" screen is added, the results get dramatically different. What makes these polls intriguing (and, some would argue, suspect) is how it became different. The Texas poll (done by the University of Texas for the Texas Tribune) rockets Romney out to a 20-point advantage. In other words, there is a double-digit gap between what the poll found among "registered" voters and what they found among "likely voters."

Based on previous Texas polling this cycle, and 2008 electoral performance, the "likely voter" poll seems infinitely less plausible than the survey of registered voters. Which raises again the debate of what constitutes a likely voter.

But, first, here are the numbers to kick off the week:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-44)

OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Romney d. Obama (62-27)

TENNESSEE (Vanderbilt University): Romney d. Obama (47-40)

TEXAS (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Romney d. Obama (46-38)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
TX-SEN (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Republican Candidate 45, Democratic Candidate 34

TX-SEN--D (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Paul Sadler 35, Addie Dainell Allen 22, Sean Hubbard 22, Grady Yarbrough 12

TX-SEN--R (Burnt Orange Report): David Dewhurst 43, Ted Cruz 30, Tom Leppert 14, Craig James 5, Lela Pittenger 4, Others 3

TX-SEN--R (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): David Dewhurst 40, Ted Cruz 28, Tom Leppert 15, Craig James 5, Others 5, Lela Pittenger 3

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

  • A quick glance at the Texas Tribune write-up on their own presidential and Senate poll gives a quick tip off to how their likely voter screen so dramatically altered the results of their survey:
    And "likely voters" were defined as those who indicated they were "somewhat" or "extremely" interested in politics and who voted in "every" or "almost every" election in recent years.
    And which elections were they asking about? From the survey instrument itself:
    There are many elections in the state of Texas. Furthermore, many people intend to vote in a given election, but sometimes personal and professional circumstances keep them from the polls. Thinking back over the past two or three years, would you say that you voted in all elections, almost all, about half, one or two, or none at all?
    "Every" or "almost every" election? But not dating back to the last presidential election? Really?!

    So, by the self-identification of the respondent, if I miss most city council or county commissioner races (which would be, if turnout stats are accurate, most voters), I would be automatically disqualified from being a "likely voter"? For a presidential election? That has to be among the most odd sets of criteria I have seen for determining a likely voter. How about asking about participation in particular elections, like 2004 and 2008? Or basing it solely off of interest level (which is a common question to determine voter intensity)? Having to participate in "almost every election" without acknowledging that voters hold different elections at different priority levels seems completely bizarre. And, I suspect, it'd go a long way toward explaining how a race that was just a single-digit race among registered voters ballooned to a 20-point race among so-called likely voters. Worth noting: Because of my issues with that screen, I used the registered voter numbers for the polling data above the fold, which would explain any discrepancies you see between these numbers and those posted in other media outlets.

  • In other polling today, we see that the prospect of runoffs in both ends of the U.S. Senate primary in Texas becomes likely, given that both the Burnt Orange Report and the UT/Texas Tribune polls show Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst several notches below the 50 percent threshold he will need to avoid a runoff. Meanwhile, the prospect of a runoff on the Democratic side seems even more likely, with no candidate over 30 percent of the vote.
  • That Tennessee poll is getting a great deal of attention, meanwhile. However, it isn't necessarily a shocker: There have been multiple polls in the Volunteer State showing the president within single digits of Mitt Romney during this cycle. This one, however, is the first one to suggest that some developing animosity between the newly minted GOP state government in Tennessee and the electorate might be contributing to that movement away from the GOP standard bearer in a state the party carried with ease in 2008. Meanwhile, as the primary results there made clear at the time, the president is unloved in Oklahoma. But seeing how that was among his two worst states in the country in 2008, that should come as a surprise to precisely no one.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon May 21, 2012 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Maybe They Mean "Likely To Have Ballot Counted" (14+ / 0-)

    after the voter disenfranchisement is taken into account. Plus voter turnout differences.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon May 21, 2012 at 05:02:42 PM PDT

  •  TX-Sen: Paul Sadler proud of his party. (15+ / 0-)

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Mon May 21, 2012 at 05:09:04 PM PDT

    •  Thanks for posting this (5+ / 0-)

      And for Tx voters -- this is the last week for early voting in the state.  For those of you who live in Houston -- I just want to give a shout out to my friend, Lane Lewis, who is running for Harris County Democratic Chair.  

      I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

      by Delilah on Mon May 21, 2012 at 05:23:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  EVERY Dem in EVERY state should be saying that. (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59, MichaelNY, ER Doc, oxfdblue, Woody

      Dems built this country and they quick fucking apologizing for it.

      "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

      by Bush Bites on Mon May 21, 2012 at 05:30:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yawn. I voted for Sean Hubbard (0+ / 0-)

      He's not a blue dog democrat in Republican clothing who can actually fire up the D base in Texas.  

      •  hahaha (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, CF of Aus, propjoe

        Yeah, he's the Ilya Sheyman of Texas.  Well, good luck to him, seeing as how that worked so well for Ilya Sheyman in the first place.

        Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

        by James Allen on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:57:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, Sadler is running the laziest campaign (0+ / 0-)

          I have ever seen from a candidate of his stature.  Hubbard has outworked him by a lot.

          In the end, I voted for Paul Sadler because he is the only candidate in the race with any experience and he was good in the state legislature a long time ago.  But quite frankly, his campaign made me less likely to vote for him, not more.

          I think that the Texas Tribune poll is complete garbage.  Addie Allen (and Grady Yarborough) will get enough votes to force a runoff.  But in the end, I think it will be neck and neck between Sadler and Hubbard with the runoff decicding the outcome.  There seems to be a lot more enthusiasm with Hubbard than Sadler.

          Finally, laugh at Libby all you want, but there are a lot of Texas Democrats on board with Hubbard.  Sadler could have closed this out earlier.  But his invisibility and a seeming lack of interest in fundraising have allowed Hubbard to stay in the race.

          Barack Obama for President '08

          by v2aggie2 on Tue May 22, 2012 at 05:45:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agree (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            redrelic17, v2aggie2

            I completely agree that Sadler is running a lazy campaign. I'm a county party chair and tried for weeks to get him out here for an appearance. The staff doesn't seem interested in returning my calls (and we aren't a tiny rural county in the middle of nowhere). I've given up. Meanwhile, Hubbard, Allen and Yarbrough have all made appearances out here and Hubbard has even spoken of a return trip.

      •  Meh. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Delilah, MichaelNY

        Sadler's not a Blue Dog, either.  I think I saw somewhere that he had a 100 percent rating from NARAL in the legislature.

        Don't forget, too, that as a Senator from Texas he'd be representing a more liberal constituency than his old district in the state House.

        28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 09:06:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Still waiting for PPP results in PA & AZ (8+ / 0-)

    no tweets about when they will be released. I have a tweet predicting that Obama will be up 6-8 in PA and Romney 5-6 in AZ.

    •  I think AZ is more in play than that (6+ / 0-)

      the 2008 exit polls showed Obama only receiving 56% of the Hispanic vote in Arizona -- his totals among Hispanics in other nearby states was much higher.  Furthermore, the 2008 exits only showed Hispanics making up 16% of the vote -- again the vote totals in nearby states where Obama's grass roots campaign was done had higher voter share totals.  Finally, the 2008 exit polls for Arizona showed Obama losing both to men and women by the same amount (54-45).  In other words, Arizona's results from 2008 showed what it would do as a dormant, non-contested state.  What is remarkable is that even then Obama only lost the state by 9 points.  If the Obama campaign is serious about contesting Arizona, then I think Arizona will look a lot more like North Carolina circa 2008.

      •  We'll see but I still think it is lean R (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Supavash

        but I hope you are closer to it than I am!

        •  Demorgraphically NC was not supposed to (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          approach swing state status until this election cycle or perhaps the next.  That Obama won NC last cycle shows that a number of soon-to-be swing states (like NC, AZ, maybe MT) can be pushed into swinger status with a heavy voter registration, grass roots drive.  So there is a good chance for AZ to move to swing status ahead of when it should (which is probably next cycle or perhaps 2020) IF the Obama campaign is serious about registration, etc.

          PS PPP will be releasing its PA Pres numbers tomorrow (along with its AZ-Sen numbers).

          •  MT was very close last time (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            But because it's a coal state, it might actually go for Romney by a greater margin than it went for McCain. It's still worth a try, though.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:20:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Hard to see other Democrats doing as well in NC (0+ / 0-)

            as Obama does.  It's a demographically changing state but I don't think it's anywhere close to a swing state at the Presidential level.  I mean, Lean R is close on the spectrum but it'll be hard for Democrats to get over the hump when we end up with another cookie cutter candidate some day.

      •  Does anyone know how big the issue of Latino, (or (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Woody

        Hispanic - I'm confused about which is preferred, sorry) voters facing much higher rates of loss of registration status right now, because of higher rates of moving?

        I read an article a few months ago, that for Nevada, (or maybe it was New Mexico) something like 16% of Hispanics who voted for Obama in 2008, were not currently properly registered and elegible to vote at their current addresses due to moving.  

        Does this mean they are currently being excluded from the registered, or "likely voter" screens?  

        We need to make sure our GOTV efforts get on top of this ASAP.  I was pleased to read earlier this evening that Team Obama already has seven offices open in Arizona, which I hope we fully contest, whatever these early polls suggest.

        But, wouldn't it be sad, if we really do have an opportunity to turn AZ,  into a battleground state, and help out down-ballot races, but fumble because early polls, that might be inaccurate because of overly aggresive "likely, or registered voter" screens might be taking out up to 16% of our voters, we can, and should reregister in their new addresses before the election.

        Texas is another state I believe we should invest in more aggresively than a "return on investment" or an "expected value" of victory, probability-model might suggest.  Even, if we might little realistic chance of actually winning this election cycle, imagine how powerful it could be to start turning TX into a true battleground state for future election cycles, and force the GOP to defend this gigantic foundation of their election strategies.

        We can't and shouldn't expend "excess resources" in all red-state, like Oklahoma, or Utah, without seriously misallocating our finite resource, but in "red state" that are showing promising signs, such as AZ, TX, TN, SD, SC, the one district in Nebraska, and MO, and IN, shouldn't we more fully engage, even if mostly as an investment in the future?  Maybe we can discover, or create another Virginia, which is starting to look, to me, potentially more blue, and perhaps even the real swing state than OH.  Maybe bluer, in rank-order, than MI, MN, WI, NH, and maybe even CO.

        Even though, Immizen sometimes lists Georgia as only a "leaning state," it may be too far out of reach, ( I say this just to leave open the possibility that I haven't totally lost touch with reality. lol)  

        The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

        by HoundDog on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:01:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Haven't read anything about voter registration.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, cybersaur

        ... drives of Hispanics in the West and Southwest. It would seem to be a critical element of Obama's campaign.

        No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

        by Magster on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:21:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Will they still include Ron Paul & Gingrich? (0+ / 0-)

      I refuse to take PPP seriously until they stop asking about Paul vs Obama and/or Gingrich vs. Obama before they ask Romney vs Obama.

      •  Surely they are rotating the names (0+ / 0-)

        Doesn't every pollster rotate the order of the names when asking such a question?

        Perhaps they are then reporting the results in alphabetical order.

        But I agree that it is past time to simply drop Gingrich from the polling altogether. Moon base or not, he ain't going nowhere.

  •  Obama's numbers in TN, OK, TX (5+ / 0-)

    none are that far off of the numbers in 2008.  Obama's about where he was in TN, his margin is a little weaker in Oklahoma, and a little stronger in Texas.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Mon May 21, 2012 at 05:32:35 PM PDT

    •  Obama (5+ / 0-)

      8 points better in TN
      3 points better in TX
      3 points worse in OK

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon May 21, 2012 at 05:41:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  More evidence of the national/state polling gap (4+ / 0-)

      Obama is running slightly better in red states than he did in 2008 -- because the Republican base hates Romney -- but not enough to realistically flip a traditionally red state like Texas or Tennessee (Arizona might wind up being the closest).

      He's also running a few points weaker in blue states, because Romney appeals to affluent suburbanites, but not enough to realistically flip a large blue state like Pennsylvania or New Jersey.

      I think the final map will wind up looking more or less like 2008, with maybe four states changing party.

      It's definitely encouraging to see continued evidence that Democrats are a couple election cycles away from really cracking open the Bush electoral college coalition, and forcing a major realignment, but I don't think the shrinking divide in deep-red states is going to have much effect this year.

      •  I think Romney is overhyped (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        when it comes to being able to appeal to suburbanites.  Maybe in the end, but current polling shows Obama still winning Virginia and in my home state of MN, he is polling at the same margin he got in 08, which is when he blew a big hole in one of the state GOP's main political bases, the 2nd ring, big box, highly educated suburbs.  I personally think he has an extremely unique pull on these voters because John McCain was supposed to be perfect for suburban voters, too.  (Also maybe the DC suburbs and Twin Cities suburbs are just more related than other suburban areas.  I have theories and anecdotal evidence on that one.)

    •  The interesting thing to me about the TN poll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, MichaelNY

      is that the numbers were Romney 42, Obama 41, when all callers were counted. It dropped to 47-40 when registered voters were counted. We need to have a huge registration effort here. And I know that the Obama campaign is active in trying to make sure that voters get IDs, so hopefully, they are registering some of those who are for him, but not registered.

      You can't scare me, I'm sticking to the Union - Woody Guthrie

      by sewaneepat on Tue May 22, 2012 at 05:22:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tennessee (9+ / 0-)

    I hope that the poll out of Tennessee might bode well for state elections as I am sick of our current legislature and having some backlash might make them reconsider some of the more draconian laws they may unleash on us next term. Here's to hope :-)

  •  does anyone here think that the past three or so (4+ / 0-)

    presidential elections is all about certain parts of the country being more predictable in their voting.

    It seems like areas such as SE OK, most of Arkansas, rural areas of Texas and much of Middle Tennessee were areas where democrats were unusually strong long after the solid south era. Clinton, Dukakis and even Mondale to some extent won many of those counties.

    Beginning about 2000, it seems that those areas started voting how you would expect them to and it seems that demographics are something that will eventually catch up to you.

    also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon May 21, 2012 at 06:32:32 PM PDT

    •  well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits, James Allen

      Gee, I wonder why voters in the rural South wouldn't like President Obama...

      28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 06:44:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the defection didn't start with Obama (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sewaneepat

        it actually started ironically in 2000 with a rural southerner on the ticket.

        also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

        by demographicarmageddon on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:00:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Al Gore represented things and took stances (6+ / 0-)

          that did not resonate in the South.

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:29:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think that's the point. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Delilah, Zack from the SFV

            It's not just Obama's skin color that's at issue among Southern voters.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:42:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  also why (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV

              didn't Michael Steele and Ken Blackwell win African American voters?  Just because we run a Southern candidate doesn't mean Southerners will vote for them.

              Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

              by James Allen on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:49:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  African-American voters aren't stupid. (8+ / 0-)

                This actually about sums up the GOP's low opinion of African-American (and Latino) voters: spew the same crap, but have an African-American spewing it instead of a white guy, and African-Americans will vote for you.

                On the other hand -- I actually know of some people who can come up with little reason for their opposition to Obama other than his skin color.  Something about "losing our country" or some crap like that.

                28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

                by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:51:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  It was pointed out recently (4+ / 0-)

                that Steele got 25% of black votes in Maryland, and that's quite a bit more than a generic Republican would have gotten.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:52:47 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  yep (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  But keep in mind that Maryland probably has more middle-class African-Americans than most states.  Bob Ehrlich got 15 percent among African-Americans that year.

                  28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

                  by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:02:05 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Middle and upper class African Americans in MD (4+ / 0-)

                    still vote near-unanimously Democratic, if you study the precinct numbers closely.  I've looked at the voting statistics  (for each precinct that was available!) and I actually don't think Steele got 25% of the African American vote; his showing in nearly all-black precincts in Prince George's County (home to him and very many well to do African Americans) was almost always below 20% and often below 10%; more than the average Republican, but not 25%.  Similar to how George W. Bush's alleged 44% among Latinos in 2004 seemed fishy and was debunked by later study (which still hasn't stopped people even now from going back and quoting that number as if it were settled fact.)

                    Whether the exact number, though, the GOP share of the vote in almost all African American areas remains miniscule, and would be so even if there were no Barack Obama.  And Steele (among others) showed that even putting a black candidate on the ticket and heavily advertising that fact doesn't change that in a major way, unless there were something terribly wrong with the Democrat.

                    36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                    by Mike in MD on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:32:31 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  There are black conservatives, my parents are. I (8+ / 0-)

                      know it's hard to believe but they exist....although I try almost daily to change their minds, but to no avail.  My dad is so hard core now that I truly believe he has a gold "Don't tread on me" flag hidden somewhere in his closet.  I kid you not!  

                      He hates Romney with everything in him, but because he thinks Romney is a "liberal too" and not for any other real reason he should hate him for.  However, at least that hate will mean Dad will stay at home this election, and I am really working on my mom who says she hates Romney too but will vote anyway.  

                      •  My mom hates Romney, too! (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        She isn't that conservative but is a reliable GOP vote in the Presidential, always.  She didn't really articulate why, she just doesn't like the guy.  She may vote for Obama even  :)  I need to corner her when my dad isn't around some time.

                        •  My mom won't vote for Obama but she hates (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          Romney enough that I am trying to get her to stay at home with dad and thus not cancel out my vote.  They hate Romney because they think he is a liberal not because of the reasons we hate him.   Try to convince her just to stay at home...in protest, of course. :)

                •  sure (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Woody

                  and Al Gore did better among whites in much of the South than Obama and Kerry.

                  Doesn't mean that people will vote for someone because of what they are.  It was a rhetorical question.

                  Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

                  by James Allen on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:17:34 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Some people will (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike, Wizardryo, Delilah

                    To greater or lesser extents.

                    One example is that Arkansas would have surely voted for Hillary Clinton in 2008; don't you agree?

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:21:31 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Who they are is very different than what they are. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Hillary grew up in Illinois and represented New York in the Senate.  She's not a Southerner, so that's not what I was talking about.  That she is Hillary Clinton mattered.

                      Some votes will get moved one way or the other, probably not entirely on the issue, but that may be the last straw for a voter.  It doesn't generally move whole blocs of voters.

                      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

                      by James Allen on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:25:52 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  NBC Pollapalooza later this week (11+ / 0-)

    NBC/WSJ national poll comes out tomorrow, I regard it the best of the media polls.

    Then NBC has swing state polls by Marist later this week.  They didn't say today which states or how many.  But unlike NBC's national poll, their Marist general election state polls have been pretty bad outliers, in our favor but that doesn't matter much if they're wrong.  Hopefully NBC pressed Marist to address recent past methodological issues before going into the field.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon May 21, 2012 at 06:41:39 PM PDT

    •  I wouldn't mind some wild numbers in our favor (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog, Supavash, Delilah, Mogolori

      I think we see enough of them in the other direction, let's make some news with big margins in the critical states!

      Now I will be stressing all day tomorrow waiting for this poll which probably won't be released until 6:30.

      •  I agree Davidsfr, both emotionally, and (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Supavash, Delilah, Mogolori, Woody

        objectively.  Elections have powerful re-enforcing feedback dynamics, which can become self-fulfilling prophesies, or what some calls "succes-to-the-succesful," or "failure to the failed" archetypes, where perceptions strongly effect investment, and other subsequant dynamics.

        For example, imagine a scenario which we might actually be facing in AZ, SC, and a few other "safe Repubican" states we might decide not to seriously contest, but might be real potential battleground states, for reasons we can not correctly perceive yet.  

        But, in my "create a own reality" scenario a wild, errant poll helps induce us to increase our investment there (for the wrong reason,) but, then we create, or energize some positive feeback loops, that accelerate democraphic trends, exploit random opportunities, or opponent errors, demoralize, confuse, or otherwise bamboozle the GOP, and we create a different future, that wasn't originally high in the pallete of likely "quantum futures."

        Whatever, this is my story, and I'm sticking too it, even though, I will not argue if someone wants to criticize me for trying too hard to make-up up an arguement that sounds "objective-like" to justify an emotion based hope.

         

        The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

        by HoundDog on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:14:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  President Obama (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mkoz

        leads Mitt Romney by three points in Alabama.  More at 10.

        28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:04:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I hate some swing state polls (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sewaneepat

      If it's like that USA Today swing state polls. they poll 900 people total between 10 states. It's weird. Think it's a bad sample. If they are individual that is different.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Mon May 21, 2012 at 08:01:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tennessee... perhaps reminding us (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, TDDVandy, KingofSpades

    that all politics is local.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:00:06 PM PDT

  •  PPP Tweeting releasese planned for tomorrow (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, True Independent, Delilah

    PA President, AZ Senate, NH 2016.

    No comment about the results in any of them yet.

  •  Interesting crosstabs on that UT/TT poll (5+ / 0-)

    One question: Did you move to Texas from California?

    Nine percent said yes.

    Californians: please stop sending your damn conservative Republicans here.  We know you don't want them, either, but... Good God, man.

    28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 07:45:48 PM PDT

    •  Ummm.....why do U assume we are all Republicans? (4+ / 0-)

      I find it funny how people make assumptions.  I am a transplant from CA and my entire family came with me.  We are all Dems living in bright red Tarrant County.  Most the other CAs I have met are the same.  I hate to burst everyone's bubble but the trouble with TX is all the Southerns that were here before us.  

      •  I'm being facetious (4+ / 0-)

        Wasn't it Chuck DeVore who claimed that all the people moving to Texas from California were conservative Republicans fleeing the mess?

        28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 09:02:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The "Conservatives" left for Utah/Idaho a decade (4+ / 0-)

          The funny thing is that the recent exit from CAli are Dems.  Mostly because TX (and other states) undercut states like CA on tax issues & regulations.  This dumb governor here in TX hasn't created a single "new" job.  What he has done is steal jobs from other states.  But the problem for TX with that movement of these jobs is the folks from CA, NY, OH, etc are coming with the jobs and we bring our values.  That is why TX will be Blue by 2024.  Purple by 2020.  

          TX is just like CA under Governor Wilson.  Wilson ran for President on the anti-immigrant campaign theme and it destroyed the Republican Party in CA.  That is when the "conservatives" started to leave in mass for Utah, Idaho and others.  TX is just 30 years behind the wave that we saw in CA.

          •  I'd love to believe u (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            But I'm in Michael McCauls district and rabid teapartyism is the name of the game.  The more birther the better.  I don't see what you are seeing.

            I'm a Kennedy Catholic.

            by EquiStar on Mon May 21, 2012 at 09:21:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Here is where I engage in my favorite pastime: (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, cstark

            buzzkilling the bluing of Texas talk.

            White voters go 3-1 for Republicans in Texans, while Hispanics go more like 3-2 for Democrats. And they are disproportionately ineligible to vote. And they disproportionately don't vote anyway.

            Given all that, I really don't think Texas will become competitive (i.e., a PVI of R+3 or less, which is what NC was in 2008) until 2028 - and that's only if Dems can find a way to get like 30+% of the white vote, something that hasn't been happening lately.

            Hopefully all you west coast refugees can help change that.

            •  Meh. (4+ / 0-)

              You assume, essentially, that even as the Hispanic share of the citizen voting-age population increases, they will still cast the same share of votes that they currently do.

              A lot of Hispanics are ineligible to vote because they are not citizens, but also a large number ARE citizens but are currently under 18.

              28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

              by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 09:43:37 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You MEH me, sir?! (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, TDDVandy, BenjaminDisraeli
                You assume, essentially, that even as the Hispanic share of the citizen voting-age population increases, they will still cast the same share of votes that they currently do.
                No, I don't.
                A lot of Hispanics are ineligible to vote because they are not citizens, but also a large number ARE citizens but are currently under 18.
                Yes, I know. Those are two different ways of being ineligible to vote.

                ...

                All right, fine... So here's the math. By my reckoning, a plausible 2028 Texas electorate is 50% anglo, 33% hispanic, 11% black, 6% other. Let's say (assuming an even election) anglos go 75-25 for the R's, Hispanics go 63-37 for the D's, blacks go 90-10 for the D's, and others go 60-40 for the D's. That would give you R 53.2 - D 46.8. Bump the Dem share up to 30% of the white vote and that gets you to R 50.7 - D 49.3.

                So probably in the range of R+1 to R+3 by 2028. But 2020? Our best hope is to start winning the occasional fluky statewide election by then.

                •  It's also assuming, too (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades

                  that Republicans will continue to do fairly well among Latinos.  If exit polls are to be believed, the Latino share of the electorate was actually the same in 2008 as it was in 2004.  The improvement in Democratic performance had to do with more Latinos voting Democratic (and also Obama cleaning up among blacks); remember that in the first half of the 2000s (and even up through 2008) the anti-immigrant rhetoric was largely confined to the fringes of the GOP with mainstream Republicans, Bush in particular, mostly rejecting it.

                  The other good news for Democrats in Texas is that Republicans have probably maxed out their share of the white vote already.

                  28, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

                  by TDDVandy on Mon May 21, 2012 at 11:18:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Can anyone tell me if the current polls being (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ER Doc

    conducted for state tallies, not the national ones....are these polls likely voters or are they registered voters?  In other words, are all polls being conducted now, or at least for the most part, are they registered voter polls?

  •  Likely voters (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TDDVandy, MichaelNY, ER Doc

    Every pollster has their own definition of likely voter.  Mostly, they view the definition as highly proprietary, so you never get a straight answer from them about it.  Sometimes the poll will include a question about enthusiasm sometimes they will just ask, "do you plan to vote?"

    Obviously they take into account the voter's history as well as other demographic factors.  Starting in September, I only pay attention to polls with likely voters.  Early polls are generally registered voters or sometimes eligible voters.  

    I found todays polls very encouraging.  Tennesse is within striking distance and Oklahoma is much much closer than anyone could have expected.  Obama is only 35 points behind.  

  •  Who the hell wastes money polling OK (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, CocoaLove

    Unless it's just one poll for the whole cycle...anything more than that is utterly pointless.

    1964 Cassius Clay vs Sonny Liston, 1997 Masters Tiger Woods vs Field, 2008 Barack Obama vs Field

    by ZenMaster Coltrane on Mon May 21, 2012 at 10:21:44 PM PDT

    •  Well it was done (0+ / 0-)

      by SoonerPoll.com, so an Oklahoma-based polling company.  Makes sense for them, and I imagine they won't poll it too often.

      They could give us insight on the OK-2 house seat polling, where Dan Boren is retiring from our side.  That would be very useful.

  •  What elections have been held in TX in last (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    several years?

    2009 - only local as far as I can see
    2010 - governorship and of course House of Reps
    2011 - as far as I can tell, some local elections and a couple amendments to TX constitution

    but that's just from 5 minutes of Googling. There may be others.

  •  The national-state number dichotomy (0+ / 0-)

    is coming into focus.  With margins like that in TX and OK it's understandable how Obama can be leading in nearly all the swing states and yet running even in the national numbers.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Tue May 22, 2012 at 04:07:35 AM PDT

  •  I don't believe the Texas Tribune Poll (0+ / 0-)

    I think that the Texas Tribune poll is complete garbage.  Addie Allen (and Grady Yarborough) will get enough votes to force a runoff.  But in the end, I think it will be neck and neck between Sadler and Hubbard with the runoff decicding the outcome.  There seems to be a lot more enthusiasm with Hubbard than Sadler.

    Barack Obama for President '08

    by v2aggie2 on Tue May 22, 2012 at 05:49:51 AM PDT

  •  Michigan now a toss up???? (0+ / 0-)

     The guys at RCP have now moved Michigan from Lean Obama to Toss up!!! of course it seems it's mostly on the strength of  3 straight seemingly Republican posters!!!! LOL!!!!

  •  Internals of WaPo (0+ / 0-)

    I was happy about the WaPo poll until I looked at the internals, who releases a poll after having polled 10% more Dems than Republicans?, given that,  I think Romney is even, as in PPP.

    •  The media polls always have more Dems (0+ / 0-)

      Yet the totality of polling supports the margin. Besides, this poll has often been Romney's most favorable poll outside the trackers.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Tue May 22, 2012 at 09:18:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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