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This is the second of three diaries on how well the Democrats will perform well in Arizona in 2012. In breaking news the maps will stand for 2012, but the teabaggers are still going to continue the court challenge. That is crucial to any Dem attempt to retake the State Legislature this year. So given the depredations of Sheriff Joe and his loyal (yet recalled lackey Russell Pearce), Governor Brewer and her attempts to impeach Colleen Mathis, the bat shit crazy legislature (including the Dems) can Phoenix rise from the ashes ? My answer is yes we can (apologies to the disillusioned) ! In a heartening sign for the Democrats, Mark Mitchell won the Tempe Mayoral race despite being accused of being a sexual predator when he was a kid. Tempe is the bedrock of AZ-09 and of a couple of the Legislative Districts discussed here.

Key Objectives
1. Predict how well the Dems will do in the Arizona State Senate (and State House).
2. Analyse in greater depth the Legislative Districts within AZ-07 & AZ-09 and the candidates for the State Senate (and State House).
3. Identify the number of Republican State Senators who have decided against running for re-election, particularly due to redistricting.

My previous diary looked at the Legislative Districts within the rural/regional AZ-01, and the Tucson based AZ-02 and AZ-03. I have since made a few edits to it, to correct some errors (thanks guys for your comments).

Key Motivation
The first reason why I am looking at these areas, is that I believe through the redistricting process all Dem leaning and competitive voters were concentrated within 15 Legislative Districts. In addition these districts are all located within the 5 Dem leaning / competitive CDs. All of the safe Republican Legislative Districts were located within the 4 Safe GOP CDs.

The second reason is that the Redistricting Commission really #$#%$#$% off the Republicans, who were outraged. Since then the Republican incumbents have voted with their feet at both the Congressional and Legislative level, showing us which seats are ripe for the taking. The Arizona Eagletarian has a few useful updates on the continued Republican attacks on the AIRC, here, and here where he states that it seems that the new maps will stand for the 2012 election.

The third reason is that Obama for America (OFA) registering new voters and increasing Hispanic turnout could change everything and see a huge electoral payoff. This tactic paid off in the last Phoenix City Council elections, which saw the election of a second Hispanic Democrat to Council, representing the 5th District (which is located in Glendale).

The fourth reason is that in three big city council elections, the Democrats have won, despite determined opposition in Phoenix, Tempe and Tucson. Between them they have a huge share of the State's population. In Tempe Mark Mitchell (son of former Congressman and Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell) won last week in a nailbiter against Michael Monti (backed by incumbent Hugh Hallman). Greg Stanton won in Phoenix and Jonathan Rothschild won Tucson, succeeding a long term Republican.

Legislative Districts within the Greater Phoenix based 7th and 9th Congressional Districts
There are 17 Greater Phoenix based LDs (if you include the 13th LD although that is half Yuma). Of the 16 LDs, 8 are wholly or partly contained within the 7th and 9th CDs. It is these 8 LDs that are the major focus below the fold, as the other 8 LDs are fairly Safe Republican LDs, with the open 20th LD the most competitive at 43.3% Dem. The map below from the Independent Redistricting Commission shows the Greater Phoenix area.

Phoenix Key Findings
Of the 8 LDs within the 7 & 9th CDs - 6 are strongly Dem leaning, including 5 "Successors" to seats currently held by existing Dem State Senators after the brutal 2010 blood bath: 24th (David Lujan, a placeholder replacement for Sinema), 26th (Schapira), 27th (Landrum-Taylor), 29th (Gallardo) and 30th (Meza). There is a brand new Hispanic VRA district - the 19th LD which is half of Steve Larado's old LD. A Republican North Phoenix seat (Lori Klein's old 6th) is vaporized, which allows for the creation of this new West Phoenix seat. Assistant House Minority Leader, Anna Tovar is running for the seat giving us a top tier candidate for this new seat.

Unlike the Tucson seats which seem a lighter shade of blue, all the Phoenix seats seem very Safe Dem to me. Schapira's 26th at 58% Dem and Meza's 30th at 57.4% Dem are the most competitive but I still rate them as Likely and Safe Dem respectively. Should incumbent Republican Jerry Lewis not run for the 26th LD, it would go to Safe Dem.

There are two Republican leaning seats (LD-18 and LD-28) with entrenched Republican incumbents who plan to run again, in John McComish and Adam Driggs. Both are considered to be on the more moderate side of the Republican State Senators.

For the House of Representatives, it seems fairly inconceivable that we wouldn't get two State Reps in each of the 6 Dem leaning seats. For LD-18 and LD-28 it seems more likely that we could only get one Dem for the two House Seats. Prior to 2010 Rae Waters was a House Rep in the former LD-20 (now LD-18) and Eric Meyer is an incumbent Dem House rep in the former LD-11 (now LD-28). Most LDs have either two Republicans or two Democrats, but two LDs have one House Rep of each party.

McComish was not challenged in 2010 and LD-18 has 71% carry over from the old LD-20, but has a decent challenger this time.

So at this stage it seems that for the 8 LDs within AZ-07 and AZ-09 there are 6 strong Dem seats that will elect 6 Dem State Senators and 12 Dem House Representatives. The are 2 Republican leaning seats that are competitive, but have entrenched incumbent State Senators, but have a history of electing at least 1 Dem to the 2 seats in the LD.

So looking ahead at 2012, most of the gains in Dem leaning and competitive seats are in Tucson and rural/regional areas, which were also where the 3 State Senate seats lost by the Dems in 2010 were located. Phoenix sees only modest gains by comparison.
Obviously increased registration by OFA, or and strong competition by Dems in 2012 could change that, if we can actually put LD-18 and LD-28.

Overall Key Findings
Okay my findings are (including from Part 1), that redistricting has created 12 Dem LDs and 3 Competitive LDs:
- These 15 LDs include the 9 seats currently held by Dems.
- They only include 1 Republican incumbent (& 1 potential other).
- They include the 3 seats previously held by the Dems pre-2010 wave.
- There are 5 R-incumbents for these 15 seats that will not seek re-election for them.
- The Republican Legislators have been largely purged of moderates in both houses.
- Without moderates, the Republicans are ill-equipped to run for the 12 Dem seats.
- The most moderate Republicans are now typical suburban Establishment types.
- All of the 15 seat have strong Dem tickets, with many Reps running for Senate.

Dem Primary Election Predictions (State Senate)
For the State Senate seats, in Dem & Competitive LDs, here are my predictions (may need to update this if anyone files prior to the filing deadline on 30 May). Most Senate Seats are not contested in the Dem Primaries because our strongest Dems are running. 11 of the 15 LDs that the Dems have a strong chance at, are uncontested primaries.

There are two hispanic challengers to the incumbents in the 27th and 30th LDs. I assume the incumbents win, but I have no horse in these races and both are safe seats so don't particularly care if the challengers win. In the 3rd LD Olivia Cajero-Bedford has a challenger also.

The 24th LD is a battle royale, because the placeholder incumbent David Lujan is not running to be elected. This is surprising as he was a House Rep with Krysten Sinema, but has seemed content just filling in for her. The primary is between the establishment backed candidate Katie Hobbs, (a current House Rep) vs Ken Cheuvront a former State Senator and State Rep, who was term limited. Cheuvront who is openly gay, is running on a ticket with his mother. HoosierD42, found that after a 2 year gap, term limited candidates can run again, if they so chose.  

Table 1: Arizona State Senate Race Dem Primaries of the 15 most Democratic Seats

# Region Predicted Winner The Others
27 Greater Phoenix Leah Landrum-Taylor (Inc) Victore Jett Contreras
(Hispanic Top Tier Challenger)
3 Greater Tucson Olivia Cajero-Bedford (inc) Maria Garcia
(former 27th LD Placeholder)
(perhaps not actually running)
7 Rural-Navajo Nation Jack C. Jackson Jr None
19 Greater Phoenix Anna Tovar (Inc House Rep/Ass Min. Leader) None
24 Greater Phoenix Katie Hobbs (Inc House Rep) Ken Cheuvront (former State Senator)
29 Greater Phoenix Steve Gallardo (Inc) None
26 Greater Phoenix Ed Ableser None
30 Greater Phoenix Robert Meza (Inc) Raquel Teran
2 Greater Tucson Linda Lopez None
4 Greater Tucson/Yuma Lynne Pancrazi (Inc House Rep) None
9 Greater Tucson Steve Farley (Inc House Rep) None
10 Greater Tucson Dave Bradley (Former House Rep) None
8 Rural-Pinal Barbara McGuire (Former House Rep) None
18 Greater Phoenix Dr Janie Hydrick None
6 Rural-Flagstaff Tom Chabin (Inc House Rep) None

Republican Primary Election Predictions
Not a matter of key interest to me in the Republican leaning seats (in terms of researching in depth), but will wait until filing deadline, and see if there is anything of interest. Obviously the big one is rabid Arpaio supporter Russell Pearce is running in the new 25th district (heavily Mormon Mesa) against a very conservative, but polite Mormon businessman Robert Worsley. The guy who beat Pearce in the recall, Jerry Lewis was redistricted into the Dem leaning 26th District that includes western Mesa. The other Mormon Mesa State Senator, the relatively moderate Rich Crandall is running for the Eastern Mesa/Apache Junction 16th LD. Because he was originally going to retire than run against Pearce, he has a primary challenge for a House Rep who decided to run here when Crandall announced his retirement. Honestly have no idea whether the extremely conservative moderates Lewis, Crandall and Worsley will do well. The Secretary of State website does now list Lewis under LD-26, so perhaps he is running.

General Election predictions (at the moment)

- We will win 15 out of the 15 Dem & Competitive Senate seats.
- We will win 28/30 House seats in the 15 LDs where we win the Senate seats.
- We will only win one House seat in LD-06 (we only have 1 runner at the moment!)
- We will only win one House seat in LD-18.
- We should also win 3 House seats in 3 LDs where we have had previous success.
- These 3 will be Inc. Rep Eric Meyer (LD-28) along with Dems in LD17 & LD-20.
- The Dems will therefore win (narrowly) the State House of Representatives.
- The Dems can "win" the State Senate if they can score wins in LD-06 & LD-18.

After the primary election is over, and we know a bit more about the OFA's attempts at registering voters I will re-visit these predictions.

General Election Stretch Targets
If OFA are trying to register 100,000 voters, then this should have a large effect on the Tucson and Phoenix based seats, greatly increasing the number of Dems. You should all have seen the latest video update by Jim Messina by now.

The following seats could be in play, particularly if OFA succeed in registering enough new voters:
- LD-14 given the 27% Hisp. VAP, and enthusiastic Dems to at least win a House Seat.
- LD-28 to help Eric Shelley win the State Senate Seat as well help AZ-09 efforts.
- LD-20 to help win the open State Senate Seat vacated by Linda Grey.

Current LD-20 and LD-28 incumbent Adam Driggs and Linda Grey are on the more moderate side of the Republican Caucus, so perhaps we do have a chance in LD-20 and LD-28.

Further Research
The figures I use are straight from the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. Because I don't feel comfortable using the more complex competitive ratings, I simply chose Competitive Index 2 to create the Rankings columns in my tables below. This may be far from the best index to use, not sure what others think ? However of the 12 Dem leaning seats, only one is rated by any of the Competitiveness Indexes and having a Dem Ave % below 50%, which is the Tucson based 10th (two indexes have it as 49.3-49.9%). The only other seat that averages above 50% Dem on some indexes which is the historically Democratic 8th LD, which is pretty 50/50 across the board. Not sure if there are some Statewide races that might serve as a good measure.

Xenocrypt, who seems to be the best amateur opposition researcher in the business, has completed a diary on LD-18. I encourage you all to read it, because it will be a decisive seat in any win for the Arizona State Senate, and is an anchor of the 9th Congressional District so is vital for us to do well in. Some very interesting research on a deadlocked State Senate in a State without a Lieutenant Governor also.

I hope suitable peer group pressure can be placed on him to look at LD-06 and/or the  stretch target seats...

Please Vote
That is the short version, and for those who are finished please vote in the poll below. For those who want a little more, please see over the fold for the background info.

RESEARCH INFORMATION
The following tables, polls, and summaries are what I have based my findings and predictions on.

Legislative Elections Details
Okay with 30 May 2012 the filing deadline, there is still a chance for new candidates to run, and others to drop out. I will update this diary in early June. The primary election is on the 28th August 2012.

New Legislative Districts Map

The 15 Democratic Leaning & Competitive Seats
Table 1 looks at the Dem tickets for the 12 Democrat leaning and 3 tossup Legislative Districts. All fifteen have full slates of both Dems running for Senate and House seats. The 12 Dem LDs and the competitive 8th LD all have Dem voter registration advantages. The 6th and 18th LD have modest Republican voter registration advantages. It is worth noting that these include the seats of the 9 Dem incumbents, 5 Republican incumbents who have fled for greener pastures (UPDATE: Antoneri is running, so 4 Republican incumbents have fled) and just 2 standing Republican incumbent. Updates to this table come from the full primary listing on the Secretary of State's site here. I have now added a category of "Certain D" and "Certain R" where the race is uncontested. The Dems have already won 7 LDs in the State Senate !

I have split the seats up into three nominal regions: Greater Phoenix (17), Greater Tucson (5) and Rural (8).

Table 2: Arizona State Senate Race Ratings & Rankings

# Region Senate Dem ? House Dems ? Senate Race Rating Ranking
27 Greater Phoenix Inc Running 2 Dem Inc & 1 Dem Other Safe D 1
3 Greater Tucson Inc Running 2 D-Inc Certain D 2
7 Rural-Navajo Nation Inc Running 1 Dem Inc & 1 Dem Other Certain D 3
19 Greater Phoenix 1 House Rep D-Inc 2 Dems Certain D 4
24 Greater Phoenix 1 House Rep D-Inc & 2 D-Others 2 Dem Inc & 1 Dem Other Safe Dem 5
29 Greater Phoenix Inc Running 3 Dems Certain D 6
26 Greater Phoenix R-Inc V House Rep D-Inc 2 Dems Likely D 7
30 Greater Phoenix Inc Running 1 D-Inc & 2 D-Others Certain D 8
2 Greater Tucson Inc Running 2 Dems Certain D 9
4 Greater Tucson/Yuma 1 House Rep D-Inc 2 Dems Certain D 10
9 Greater Tucson 1 House Rep D-Inc 3 Dems Likely D 11
10 Greater Tucson 1 House Rep D-Former 1 D-Inc & 2 D-Others Likely D 12
8 Rural-Pinal 1 House Rep D-Former 3 Dems Lean D 13
18 Greater Phoenix 1 Dem 2 Dems Tossup/Tilt R 14
6 Rural-Flagstaff 1 House Rep D-Inc 1 Dem Lean D 15
The 15 Republican Leaning Seats
Okay here are the 15 Republican leaning seats. As a general rule the include almost no seats held by a Democrat in recent times (and certainly no state senator), are almost all within the 4 Safe Republican CDs, have fairly low Hispanic VAP and have a Republican registration advantage. 12 of the 15 seats have one or more incumbent Republican State Senators running with 2 other seats are open due to term limits (1 of which the Dems are not contesting). The other seat is open due to redistricting and will be a primary battle royale between Robert Worsley, a very conservative, yet polite businessman vs rabid nutjob Russell Pearce. Of the 15 LDs, 5 have no Dems running for Senate or House, 4 of the 15 have only 1 Dem running overall, and 1 of the 15 has 2 Dems running for the State House but none for the State Senate. So only 5 seats are being seriously contested by the Dems, including 4 of the 5 Republican seats where the Dem % is above 40%. These 5 seats all have 1 Senate candidate and 1-2 House candidates.

Table 3: Arizona State Senate Race Ratings & Rankings

# Region Senate Dem ? House Dems ? Senate Race Rating Ranking
28 Greater Phoenix (R-Inc) 1 Dem 1 Inc Dem Lean R# (Inc) 16
20 Greater Phoenix 1 Dem 1 D-Former & 1 D-Other Likely R#(Open-TL) 17
21 Greater Phoenix No Dem 1 Dem Safe R (Inc) 18
17 Greater Phoenix 1 Dem 1 Dem Likely R# (Inc) 19
11 Rural-North of Tucson 1 Dem No Dems Safe R (Inc) 20
14 Rural-East of Tucson/Cochise 1 Dem 2 Dems Likely R (Inc) 21
16 Greater Phoenix 1 Dem 1 Dem Safe R (Inc) 22
15 Greater Phoenix No Dem 1 Dem Certain R (Inc) 23
23 Greater Phoenix None None Certain R (Inc) 24
22 Greater Phoenix None None Certain R (Inc) 25
25 Greater Phoenix 1 Dem No Dems Safe R (Open) 26
13 Rural-Yuma/Buckeye None None Certain R (R Primary Battle) 27
5 Rural-Mohave None 2 Dems Safe R (Open-TL) 28
12 Greater Phoenix None None Certain R (Inc) 29
1 Rural-Prescott None None Certain R (Inc) 30
#= While this is the Race Rating for the State Senate seat, it is likely or far more likely that 1 Dem will get elected to one of the two House seats for the LD.

So basically there is the potential for a couple of State Senate races to become competitive, but it is likely that the only Dem victories will be in a few House Seat races, with Eric Meyer and Jackie Thrasher likely to win. Only Meyer, Thrasher and Karyn Lathan a 17th LD House nominee and one or two others seem to have much institutional support that I can see. Although Jo Holt (11th LD) and Pat Fleming (14th LD) are endorsed by Arizona List. and My favourite state senate candidate is Vietnam veteran (no not that) Bill Gates who bashes Reagan on his website and is basically running on doing something about the nearly 50% of mortgages that are underwater.
Of the full/strong Dem slates, those for the 17th, 28th and 20th seem to be likely to be the most competitive (the least Republican of the Republican leaning seats). The Dem slate that really stands out is the one for the 14th where Pat Fleming and 2 House runners are trying to win in the most Hispanic seat held by the Republicans (27%). The seat however is pretty conservative, but notionally held by freshman Gail Griffin (who represents only 40% of  the district) who beat a conservadem in the 2010 wave election. I couldn't find anything on the 16th LD candidates.

Table 4: Legislative Districts within the Greater Phoenix based 7th and 9th Congressional Districts

# Locality Ave Results (R%/D%) 2 Way Reg (R%/D%) VAP (W%/H%)
Place Distribution Redistribution
18 Phoenix - Ahwatukee / Tempe South 51.5/48.5 55.1/44.9 73.4/12.7 Phoenix (34.43%), Chandler  (26.04%), Tempe (25.56%), & Mesa (13.69%) 20th(71%), 21st(15%), 17th(19.7%)
24 Phoenix Central 38.5/61.5 42.2/57.8 52.4/34.1 Phoenix (82.43%), & Scottsdale (17.57%) 15th(55%)
26 Tempe North 42.0/58.0 46.6/53.4 52.3/32.0 Tempe (52.30%), Mesa (41.67%) & Phoenix (3.34%). 17th(52.3%), 18th(36%)
28 Paradise Valley 54.8/45.2 58.0/42.0 74.5/17.7 Phoenix (93.96%) & Paradise Valley (5.85%) 11th(59%), 10th(20%), 7th(18%)
19 Avondale 37.0/63.0 33.1/66.9 26.4/60.4 Phoenix (56.55%), Avondale (38.49%), & Tolleson (3.16%) 13th(42%), 16th(27%)
27 Phoenix City 27.4/72.6 23.4/76.6 24.3/52.1 Phoenix (89.89%), Tempe (3.80%) & Guadelupe (2.52%) 16th(89%)
29 Glendale 39.5/60.5 35.3/64.7 27.1/61.9 Phoenix (59.88%), Glendale (33.55%) 13th(50%), 12th(46%)
30 Phoenix Central 42.6/57.4 38.3/61.7 35.5/50.7 Phoenix (76.61%), Glendale (23.90%) 14th(48.1%), 15th(20%)
Dems Running for Legislative Districts within 7th and 9th Congressional Districts
So far not everyone has formally lodged the required documents, with only around half of candidates having done so. The Secretary of State website shows the dollars raised, but the table is hopelessly confused, mixing old and new LD numbers and has candidates on there that are not running. The Arizona Democratic Party seems to keep its website up to date with candidates for each Legislative District. Most candidate's name has a link to their campaign website/facebook page, and for those existing and former State Senators and Representatives, their current district number has a link to their congressional webpage.

Table 5: Legislative Districts within the 7th and 9th Congressional Districts - Race Ratings for State Senate Races

# Incumbent Who Is Running Rank Race Rating
18 John McComish (R-inc)(20th) Dr.Janie Hydrick changed to this race from the Maricopa County Community College Board.

John McComish (R-Inc) is seen as the most moderate of the Rep. Senators according to local conservatives, and was not challenged in 2010.

14 Lean Republican
24 OPEN - (Lujan) Placeholder Lujan, (Sinema's replacement) is not running, setting up a full blown primary showdown:

Katie Hobbs (D-Inc House Rep) (15th), who is endorsed by Arizona List.
Ken Cheuvront (D-form. State Sen.)(15th).
Tony Flores, who dropped down from the US Senate race.

5 Safe Democrat
26 OPEN - (Schapira) Schapira is running for the 9th CD so the race will come down to:

Ed Ableser (D-Inc House Rep) (17th) has is running for this seat.  
Jerry Lewis (R-Inc) (18th) who according to the Arizona Eagletarian will run here.

7 Likely Democrat
28 Adam Driggs (R-inc)(20th) Eric Shelley (No prior office)

Adam Driggs (R-Inc). The incumbent is seen as one of the more moderate Rep. Senators (by local conservatives), voting with the Dems against changes to the recall laws.

14 Lean Republican
19 OPEN - New Seat This is a completely new Hispanic VRA seat, with just one runner in this LD:

Anna Tovar (D-Inc House Rep) (13th District), Asst House Minority Leader)

4 Safe Democrat
27 Leah Landrum-Taylor (D-inc)(16th) This is the downtown Phoenix seat, which is 15.1% African American VAP, and there are two runners:

Leah Landrum-Taylor (D-inc), who is endorsed by Arizona List.
Victore Jett Contreras is a Hispanic challenger lost in the 2010 primary when he ran a reasonably competitive race where (he got 42%).

1 Safe Democrat
29 Steve Gallardo (D-inc)(13th) Steve Gallardo (D-Inc), is going to run here, which is half his old 13th district. 6 Safe Democrat
30 Robert Meza (D-inc)(14th) There two runners for the LD:
Robert Meza (D-inc), the openly gay incumbent.
Raquel Teran, who is running on a Hispanic ticket with Jonathan Larkin (the seat is around 50%) Hispanic VAP against the establishment ticket.
8 Safe Democrat
Okay in the existing legislature there are 20 Democrats in 11 Legislative Districts. Of these, 11 are from 6 Phoenix based Districts. Of these 11 however, 2 are running for the State Senate, and another (Richard Miranda) has been expelled from the State House. One more (Ben Arredondo) didn't file to run, presumably because the FBI have indicted him. Overall there are 8 Legislative Districts "nested" within the 7th & 9th CDs. 6 of these should elect 2 Dem House Reps, and the two others should elect 1 Dem House Rep (and have a history of doing so). This should be a net gain of 3 Dem State Representatives in this already Dem area - 1 in LD-18, and two in the newly created Hispanic VRA LD-19.

Table 6: Legislative Districts within the 7th and 9th Congressional Districts - Race Ratings for House Races

# Incumbents Who Is Running Rank Race Rating
18 Jeff Dial (R-inc) (20th)

Bob Robson (R-inc) (20th)
This is a traditionally republican district, which has finally gained a full slate of Dem challengers prior to the 30 May filing deadline:
Darin Fisher (no website yet), and
Corey Harris (Tempe resident and Iraq Veteran).
14 Lean Republican
24 Katie Hobbs (D-Inc) (15th)

Lela Alston (D-Inc) (15th).
There is a full blown primary showdown between establishment Dems running on a slate with Senate Candidate Kate Hobbs and a conservadem:
Lela Alston (D-Inc) (15th) who is endorsed by Arizona List, and
Chad Campbell  (D-Inc) (14th), the House Minority Leader, vs
Jean McDermott (consevadem, running on a slate with her son, senate candidate Ken Cheuvront).
5 Safe Democrat
26 Ed Ableser (D-Inc) (17th)

Ben Arredondo (D-Inc) (17th)
There are two Dems running for the two House Seats, with incumbent Ben Arredondo yet to file, and Ableser running for the vacant senate seat:
Andrew Sherwood, a Democrat who ran and lost against Russell Pearce in the old heavily Republican 18th District.
Juan Mendez, a life long Democrat activist.
7 Safe Democrat
28 Eric Meyer (D-Inc) (11th)

Kate Brophy McPhee (R-Inc) (11th)
This seat is the one the Dems need to win, to gain the majority. It would seem that only one Dem is running to concentrate the vote and gain at least one Dem in the district:

Eric Meyer (D-Inc) (11th), the incumbent House Representative.
14 Lean Democrat / Lean Republican
19 NEW SEAT This is a completely new Hispanic VRA seat. Currently there is a full slate of Dems running for the house in

Bryan Kilgore Sr (D-Avondale Council) who is an African American candidate, &
Lorenzo Sierra (D-No Prior Office)
4 Safe Democrat
27 Ruben Gallego (D-Inc) (16th)

Catherine Miranda (D-Inc) (16th)
This is the downtown Phoenix seat, which is 15.1% African American VAP. Safest Dem seat. There are 3 Dems running for the 2 House Seats, including the two Incumbent 16th District House Reps:

Ruben Gallego (16th) &
Catherine Miranda (16th) are running here, along with
Reginald Bolding Jr., an African American challenger.
1 Safe Democrat
29 Anna Tovar (D-Inc) (13th)

Martin Quezada (D-Inc) (13th)
The successor to the old 13th District. There are three runners(two who are running on a ticket with Gallardo) for the two house seats:

Lydia Hernandez, a losing 2010 Dem primary candidate for the old 13th District who withdrew before the primary.
Martin Quezada, the notional incumbent appointed to replace Richard Miranda who resigned over the misuse of charitable funds. He is an attorney and former chief of staff to the AZ House of Reps Democrat Caucus, and a losing 2010 Dem primary candidate for the old 13th District, &
Martin Samaniego, a former Glendale City Councillor.
6 Safe Democrat
30 Chad Campbell (D-Inc) (14th)

Debbie McCune-Davis (D-Inc) (14th)
The successor to the old 14th District, although House Minority Leader Chad Campbell is running in the adjacent 24th District. There are three runners for the two House seats:

Debbie McCune-Davis (D-Inc House Rep)(14th)) who is endorsed by Arizona List,
Jonathan Larkin (an Iraq veteran with strong Hispanic support), and
Mike Snitz (establishment endorsed newcomer)
8 Safe Democrat
How Conservative are Republican State Legislators ?
In California, where Independent redistricting also occurred, several Republican congressmen did not bother running again, because they were too conservative for their newly competitive districts. So what about the Arizona Republican legislators ?

Well according to their own rankings (released by the Pachyderm Coalition), Republicans are ranked in the following categories:

- Over 90 is a Reagan Republican.
- Over 75 is a Pro-Freedom Republican.
- Over 50 is a Republican.
- Over 25 is a Big Government Republican.
- Over 0 is a Bipartisan Republican.
- Zero or less is a RINO (Republican In Name Only).
The grades are given on how they voted on specific bills. As you can see the bottom three rankings are not very good types of Republican ! I will first compare the 2011 rankings against their 2009 rankings.

In 2011, there were 21 R State Senators, which were graded as: 3 Reagan Republicans, 12 Pro-Freedom Republicans and 6 Republicans. There were 40 State Representatives, who were graded as 6 Reagan Republicans, 24 Pro-Freedom Republicans and 10 Republicans.

Even back in 2009, there were pesky moderates however (perhaps that is why they started the rankings !). There were 18 R State Senators at the time, consisting of 2 Reagan Republicans, 8 Pro-Freedom Republicans, 4 Republicans (including Jonathan Paton), 2 Big Government Republicans (both are still around, but who have since become far more conservative), 1 Bipartisan Republican (Jay Tibshraeny who is now Mayor of Chandler) and 1 RINO (Carolyn S. Allen is a former State Senator was term limited from House & Senate after 8 years in both, and who endorses Dems and is lauded by Planned Parenthood). There were 35 State Representatives in the House, consisting of 6 Reagan Republicans, 17 Pro-Freedom Republicans, 6 Republicans, 4 Big Government Republicans (including no Senator Rich Crandall), and 2 Bipartisan Republicans (Bill Konopnicki was term limited out of the House and Doug Quelland who was removed from office for campaign finance breaches in 2009, lost the Republican primary in 2010 (still got a very decent vote) and who is now running as an Independent for the open 20th LD - potential wild card).

So as you can see between 2009 and 2011 the moderates have either been eliminated or forced to the right. The existing moderates are establishment republicans as opposed to true moderates. This does not make for good candidates in competitive swing seats...

However in 2012, the ratings tell a different story that to me stinks of an agenda: Of the 21 State Senators, there are 3 Reagan Republicans, 5 Pro-Freedom Republicans, 7 Republicans, 3 Big Government Republicans (Adam Driggs, John McComish and term limited Linda Grey), 2 Bipartisan Republicans (John Nelson & Jerry Lewis the giant killer) and 1 RINO (Rich Crandall). Surprising that the very conservative Mormons Jerry Lewis and Rich Crandall were likely considered to be running for the 25th LD (where Russell Pearce is hoping to resurrect his career). While neither are actually running for the 25th, Crandall is running for the East Mesa 16th LD and Lewis may yet run for the Dem leaning 26th. Looks like the Pachyderm Coalition wanted to carry out their endorsements early on ! They also nominate John Nelson as a Bipartison Republican for the first time, coincidentally he is facing Yuma conservative teabagger/freshman Don Shooter in a primary for the 13th LD.

In the House, they are more lenient, of the 40 Representatives they nominate 8 as Reagan Republicans, 15 as Pro-Freedom Republicans, 12 as Republicans, and 5 as Big Government Republicans.

Republican State Senators Casualty Ward
So far it is not looking good for the supposedly unbreakable hold that the Republicans have on the State Senate. 7 of the 21 State Senators will definatly not be returning to the State Senate, 5 through redistricting. The following table provides the details.

Table 7: Republican Retirements

Name & Details Running ? Opportunity for Dems ?
Linda Grey (term limited) Not running 20th LD may be competitive
Ron Gould (term limited) Running for AZ-04 No opportunity for the Safe 5th LD
Lori Klein (her old 6th LD is gone) A redistricting casuelty, she is running for the House of Representatives in the 1st LD, where her home is located. No direct opportunity for Dems, but the new Hispanic 19th West Phoenix LD is a gain at Klein's expense. Klein's move allows incumbent Nancy Barto to run for the 15th LD for the Republicans.
Sylvia Allen (the new 6th LD is competitive) A redistricting casualty, this absolute nutjob, is fleeing the new 6th LD where she is the notional incumbent, to run for Navajo County Supervisor. This district is a strong Dem opportunity, as it is a new Flagstaff focused LD (that includes Sedona), with Flagstaff previously wasted in the Navajo Nation LD. Strong Dem pickup opportunity. Allen had the lowest approval rating in the Lake Research Partners Poll of incumbent Republicans (22%) so she obviously decided she was out of step with her district. Her endorsed successor is Chester Crandell (R-Herber), a freshman Rep, who is a Mormon from Herber which is a small town in Navajo County, and is pretty conservative (Pachyderm rates him a Pro-Freedom Republican) and seems to want to pillage the natural environment. I am not sure that he has any strategic advantages over Allen, so perhaps he thinks he can do it ! Only one Dem has filed for LD-06 in the House, making me think the Dems are trying to maximise the vote for a one seat campaign (rather than try for 2 Dems and get none).
Steve Smith A redistricting casualty, Smith could have chosen to run for the State Senate in the 8th LD but is instead running for the much more Republican 11th LD, which is a spare parts district that is basically the leftovers from the Tucson and Pinal County areas. Smith is deferring to fellow incumbent Al Melvin, and is just running for a House Seat Smith's choice means the 8th LD is a prime pickup opportunity, as Pinal County is a historically Democratic area, and the seat is competitive seat that is ranked as Dem leaning according to some of the Competitive Indexes on the AIRC webstie.
Frank Antenori A redistricting casualty, he ran an incredibly poor campaign in the Special Election for AZ-08, and I presume will run for the AZ-02 depending what happens there). Strong Dem opportunity. His old 30th LD District vaporized, effectively in favour of a new Dem leaning Tucson seat (LD-10), where we have a top tier challenger in former Dem rep, David Bradley. UPDATE: Antenori is actually running !
Don Shooter or John Nelson These two are likely set for a incumbent on incumbent primary battle royal. May the slightly less worse one wins. Redistricting split Don Shooter's Yuma LD, throwing half into a new Hispanic VRA seat, and merging the other half with Nelson's Buckeye seat. The new LD-04 is a likely Dem gain at what I consider to be Shooter's expense, even though he may defeat Nelson.
Jerry Lewis The giant killer has seen his Mesa seat dismantled and he is now no longer in the same seat as Russell Pearce (who already has a more moderate Mormon running against him in the new 25th). He is now probably running in the Dem leaning 26th LD, which David Schapira is vacating. No opportunity here - I consider the very Republican 25th LD to be his seat, which he is not running for.
This means that the competitive 6th and 8th LDs are ripe for the taking given Smith and Allen are too scared to defend them. It is also good news for the Yuma-Tucson based 4th District that Don Shooter is abandoning to run against John Nelson. This district was held by a Dem pre-2010 (conservadem Amanda Aguirre). Antenori saw the writing on the wall and is not running for the now Dem leaning 10th LD giving the Dems another good pickup. This district includes part of a district that was held by a Dem pre-2010 (Manuel Alvarez). Lori Klein's LD is obliterated, with her LD effectively merged with Nancy Barto's LD. Her house is in Senate President Steve Pierce's LD so she has taken the pragmatic route of going back to the House in the 1st and waiting for a State Senate seat to open up. Linda Grey being termed out of the State Senate gives us an opportunity to make a play for her Republican leaning seat. Ron Gould will be succeeded by a Republican.

Acknowledgements/Resources
The following table shows the key resources that I relied upon for this diary.

Table 8: Resources Ready Reckoner

Name Resource/Link
Arizona Democratic Party List of 2012 Primary Election Candidates
Ballotpedia Arizona House of Representatives 2010 Elections
Ballotpedia Arizona State Senate 2010 Elections
Xenocrypt How Competitive is the Az Legislature post redistricting?
Xenocrypt Republicans Could Lose Control of the Arizona State Legislature - And It Could Come Down To This Race
Pachyderm Coalition (conservative nut jobs) 2012 Conservative Rankings of State Legislators
Pachyderm Coalition (conservative nut jobs) 2011 Conservative Rankings of State Legislators
Pachyderm Coalition (conservative nut jobs) 2009 Conservative Rankings of State Legislators
Arizona List (Pro Choice Female Dems) List of endorsed female candidates
Arizona Secretary of State Election Results for 1970s-Present
Wikipedia Arizona State Senate
Wikipedia Arizona State House of Representatives
Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Final Legislative Maps and Reports
Arizona Secretary of State Campaign Finance Search
Arizona Secretary of State Full 2012 Primary Listing (where sigs submitted)
Acknowledgements/Resources
In my previous diary the following poll was carried out: "Based on this look at the Tucson and Rural East areas, how Many State Legislative Districts will the Dems Win in the Arizona State Senate ?"

Less than 9 (Pearce & Arpaio are unstoppable monsters) - 8%
9 (same as now)                                                      - 0
10-12 (Dems will do okay)                                          - 21%
13 (Dems will win their good chances)                          - 27%
14-16 (Obama is going to Register shitloads of voters)     -13%
17+                                                                        -0
This diary is too long I fell asleep                                 -10%
I will wait and see your Phoenix analysis first                 -18%

This survey was based on around 1200 Likely Voters, with an approximate MOE + or - 0.001%. For further information on the cross tabs, go F#%^# yourself, you clearly are too nosy.  

Thu May 31, 2012 at  1:31 PM PT: Diary has been largely updated to reflect the final primary list of candidates, upon the closure of the filing deadline. 7 Dem State Senators have won their races unopposed, and 5 Republicans have won their State Senate seats unopposed (another only has a Libertarian opponent).  


Originally posted to CF of Aus on Thu May 24, 2012 at 03:57 PM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

Poll

What do you think of the Dems chances in taking the Arizona State Legislature

8%3 votes
32%11 votes
26%9 votes
23%8 votes
5%2 votes
2%1 votes

| 34 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (15+ / 0-)

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Thu May 24, 2012 at 03:57:50 PM PDT

  •  Great work...need to digest it. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larsstephens

    Where did you find the redistribution numbers?

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu May 24, 2012 at 04:40:44 PM PDT

    •  Ah yes I see the difficulty now - It is there on (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      the AIRC website, it is called the Change Report, but it is only on the Tentative Final Maps section, not the Final Maps section. I only list the more significant percentages.

      (Be careful of making the same mistake I did -  LD-01 refers to LD-14 and vice versa, not sure why they changed the numbers for those two)

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Thu May 24, 2012 at 04:58:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Arizona, put ON your rainbow shades! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, Larsstephens, PSzymeczek

    I don't think people really realize how close Arizona is to a complete flip, due in great part to efforts by Gov. Jan Drunkard, Russell Pearce, Sheriff Joe and the entire wackjob Repub legislature for doing nothing but making us all here the laughingstock embarrassment of the country. Even longtime R voters are waking up to the fact, and I think its really going to show at the ballot box.

    And in honor of Mittens, I'm going to take credit for it!

    Mitt Romney/Pee-Wee Herman 2012 - "I'm not familiar precisely with what I said, but I stand by what I said, whatever it was" / "I meant to do that!"

    by Fordmandalay on Thu May 24, 2012 at 04:50:44 PM PDT

  •  One awesome thing about the LD-06 showdown (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, CF of Aus, Larsstephens

    is that Crandell's current district is really, really Republican, and Chabin's current district is really, really Democratic--like, from near the extremes of the entire state.  Not that I know Crandell and Chabin's personalities, but all I can do is imagine Maxine Waters running against Darrell Issa, in a swing seat.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu May 24, 2012 at 05:32:20 PM PDT

    •  This could be the most entertaining race to watch! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      I wonder if they will try an race for the centre or stand their ground ?

      Game on !

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Thu May 24, 2012 at 05:39:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My cousin is running for office (4+ / 0-)

    Eric Shelley is running in the 28th. He ran in 2010, but what an ugly year for Dems. I just want to let anyone in the 28th know that he is worthy of support!

    •  Good to know - He is running for the 16th most (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens, James Allen

      Democratic seat - so if we win that one we would win the majority.

      I rate it lean Republican so far, but it is very much a realistic target.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Thu May 24, 2012 at 06:53:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Actually (3+ / 0-)

      Your cousin might have a better shot than expected--or rather, it's not obvious to me that LD-28 is tougher than LD-06.

      According to the AIRC's change reports, which admittedly only apply to the "tentative final maps" (but I think they're basically the same districts in these cases), Obama got 46% in the new LD-28 and 45.5% in the new LD-06, while the Democratic Mine Inspector candidate (no, I don't know why they included that) got 42% in the new LD-28 and 41.1% in the new LD-06.  

      That means Obama did better in LD-28, and worse in LD-06, than he did statewide.  (The Mine Inspector guy got 42.87% statewide.)

      Admittedly, Kerry did better in the new LD-06 than in the new LD-28, but that might mean that the new LD-28 is trending blue.  On the other hand, McCain could have gotten a stronger "home state effect" in the new LD-06, since it includes Sedona.  And LD-06 does have a more favorable Index 2 score--by a not-very-significant tenth of a percent--but that must mean that some statewide candidates did worse in LD-28 than they did in LD-06.  

      Still, I don't think there's much of a line between them.  LD-28 also has a higher Hispanic population, so it might benefit from any aggressive Democratic registration efforts.  Also, the compact and urban LD-28 might be easier to campaign in than the sprawling LD-06.

      On the other hand--no offense to your cousin, but he might not be as strong a candidate as Tom Chabin, considering their respective exposure in their districts--the current LD-07 doesn't have much overlap--17.8%--with the new LD-28, while Adam Driggs represents 59.3% of the new LD-28 as the Senator from the current LD-11.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 25, 2012 at 01:00:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wow, so much info! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, Larsstephens, HoosierD42

    I skimmed through it the first run, pausing wherever it caught my eye and will read it more thoroughly a bit later.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Thu May 24, 2012 at 06:47:50 PM PDT

  •  Just thought I'd point out (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    You mentioned that you don't know how Ken Cheauvront can run despite being term-limited: Arizona limits its legislators two 4 consecutive two-year terms in either house of the Legislature, but once you've been term-limited and sit out two years, you can run and the clock starts once more for another 8 years.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Barrett/Mitchell on June 5th, 2012!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri May 25, 2012 at 05:30:10 AM PDT

  •  USA v. Arpaio (0+ / 0-)

    2nd sworn court filing implicates Maricopa County Attorney (Montgomery) in USA v. Arpaio

    http://www.scribd.com/...

  •  Paul Penzone is taking on Joe Arpaio (0+ / 0-)

    This week, Paul Penzone submitted signatures to be on the ballot to run against Arpaio.  This comes on the heels of a new poll that shows Arpaio's favorability in a free fall from the 70's down to only 46% while his unfavorable is at 45%.  Check out Paul on FB at http://www.facebook.com/...
    and his website is www.penzone2012.com.  

    Jake Adams
    Campaign Manager, Penzone for Sheriff
    jake@penzone2012.com

    Jake Adams Penzone for Sheriff, Campaign Manager Ph: 602.910.0922 Email: jake@penzone2012.com www.penzone2012.com

    by Jakeadams on Fri May 25, 2012 at 09:10:10 AM PDT

  •  I will write a diary about LD-06 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, CF of Aus

    But I'm curious why you have it at Lean D.  I think (based on the change report and on my preliminary attempts to draw it in DRA) that it's something like 45-46% Obama--perhaps R+3, and a bit to the left of the state maybe, but still tough on paper.

    But I actually think it's not that much harder than LD-18--the fact that the latter has a Republican quasi-incumbent against an (interesting) Some Dude while the former is more of an open seat with two similarly-credentialed candidates probably makes up for some of the three-point difference in partisan lean.  I'd say they're both tough but 15-15 is in the cards.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri May 25, 2012 at 10:19:37 AM PDT

    •  Victory! (0+ / 0-)

      Excellent, thanks for doing that, much appreciated. I rated LD-06 as Lean Dem because much like AZ-01 it has been designed to be competitive. As Paul Gosar and Sylvia Allen have shown by running away, it is unlikely that a teabagger could hold the district. Too much of a hard fight. It has only 25% of the old 5th district, whereas McComish still has most of his. So Crandell has a much smaller base to start with being from Navajo County, he now has to convince a lot of new voters. Whereas technically Chabin has only a minor advantage with 30% of his district included, he would have much higher visibility in the greater Flagstaff area. Also I believe McCain's home state effect would likely be strong in this district, including a lot of more moderate Flagstaff and Sedona voters.

      But we will see what you uncover! I am confident we can win both LD-18 and LD-06, but I am giving a strong incumbent bonus to McComish at this stage.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Fri May 25, 2012 at 04:44:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Excellent diary. Thanks for all your work. nt (0+ / 0-)

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