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The first round of nationwide voting for the next President of Egypt concluded yesterday. While officially certified (post-appeal) results are not expected until Sunday or Monday, early indications are 1) that no candidate secured the 50%+1 required to win outright and 2) that the runoff election scheduled for 16-17 June will pit the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Mursi against either Ahmed Shafiq, long-serving Minister of Civil Aviation and also Prime Minister during the final 18 days of Mubarak's reign, or the Nasserist Hamdeen Sabbahi. On the basis of preliminary tallies of votes from twenty-three of Egypt's twenty-seven governments, the results are as follows:

Mohammed Mursi ~26%
Ahmed Shafiq ~22.5%
Hamdeen Sabbahi ~20.5%
Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh ~19%
Amr Moussa ~12%
Nasserist Hamdeen Sabbahi is, per conventional wisdom, a somewhat surprising third, and it is not impossible that the results from outstanding governorates (in particular Giza and Cairo) could propel Sabbahi to a slim lead over Shafiq. Indeed, there are now Tweets and radio-broadcasts indicating that Sabbahi has overtaken Shafiq; it is, at any rate, a close race for second. The two candidates predicted by conventional wisdom at the beginning of May to meet in the runoff are currently in fourth and fifth.

I'll update this diary as I am able with both voting-results from the outstanding governorates and commentary as well. For now, though, Juan Cole's comments can suffice.

Juan Cole:

If Sabahi can maintain his narrow lead over Ahmad Shafiq [note: based on Al-Nil's broadcast], the resulting run-off will give Egyptians a choice between a leftist secularist and a Muslim fundamentalist, both of them from the opposition to Mubarak.

If Shafiq can pull back ahead of Sabahi, the resulting election would be a huge catastrophe for Egypt.

If Egyptians have to decide between Mursi and Shafiq, they’ll have a stark choice. They could give the Muslim Brotherhood two of the major branches of civilian government and risk a swift move to Islamic law and one-party dominance. They could split the ticket and support the secular Shafiq, who is very much a creature of the old regime and of the Egyptian military. In some ways he would resurrect Mubarak’s policies but will face new limitations in presidential rule by fiat. He speaks warmly of Mubarak, and would be a highly polarizing figure who would certainly provoke a whole new round of big demonstrations on the part of the New Left youth and perhaps also Muslim fundamentalists. He has ominously promised to crack down hard on “destructive demonstrations.” Although the Western politicians and business classes might favor Shafiq for surface reasons, in fact they’d be buying a whole lot of trouble if they backed him.

To appreciate the dynamics involved in a Mursi (Muslim Brotherhood) versus Shafiq (military) runoff, one could hardly do better than peruse Robert Springborg's Egypt's Cobra and Mongoose.

As for the Revolution? It may be dead, or may be reignited.

UPDATE: numbers in from Asiut and Qalyoubia governorates indicate that Shafiq's lead over Sabbahi is growing, and that Shafiq is tightening the race with Mursi. Still awaiting Giza and Cairo.

Mohammed Mursi ~26.5%
Ahmed Shafiq ~24.75%
Hamdeen Sabbahi ~20.0%
Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh ~17.75%
Amr Moussa ~10.7%
UPDATE: preliminary results from Giza and Cairo are that Sabbahi wins the two districts, with Shafiq a close second; Sabbahi's margin is not however wide enough to overcome Shafiq's hold on second place overall, thus a Mursi versus Shafiq runoff seems assured. Obviously the following percentages will wiggle a bit over the next two days as challenges and appeals are heard, but this is the state-of-play:
Mohammed Mursi ~25.48%
Ahmed Shafiq ~24.36%
Hamdeen Sabbahi ~21.33%
Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh ~17.90%
Amr Moussa ~10.92%

Originally posted to angry marmot on Fri May 25, 2012 at 07:11 AM PDT.

Also republished by Adalah — A Just Middle East.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (14+ / 0-)

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Fri May 25, 2012 at 07:11:08 AM PDT

  •  They'll figure it out. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Geekesque, science nerd

    There are three main groups in Egypt:

    The old regime/establishment, the fundamentalists, and the leftists.

    If the leftists and old regime folks can figure out how to work together, they'll be better off.

    That's kind of what happens here in the US. The establishment folks are split down the middle. The ones who care about the human race and have a conscience support the Dems, while the ones who care only about money have made a deal with the devils of the christian right.

    This is going to be tough, but the Egyptian people will figure it out.

    I don't think that either the military or the protesters would tolerate Islamist rule. I think that's a neocon kind of bogeyman.

    An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t'Saoghail.

    by OllieGarkey on Fri May 25, 2012 at 07:19:19 AM PDT

  •  "The Revolution is Ended" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    angry marmot, wu ming

    So says Shafiq's spokesman.  This is absolutely the worst possible outcome for Egypt.  They already have an Islamist-dominated Parliament.  Now they will have a choice between a hardline Islamist, a Nasserist, or a stinking foloul who vows to "crack down' on protests and bring Egypt back to the same policies that Mubarak followed.

    As much as I dislike him, I suppose I have to hope for a Sabbahi surge to put him in the run-off against Mursi.  Though I don't think he can win.  This is just a disaster.

  •  Interesting. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    angry marmot, downsouth

    It kind of looks like the Egyptian voters are trying to create some kind of balance between the islamist-dominated parliament and the presidency.

    There could be a touch of buyer's remorse already showing from the last election, imo.

    I don't really see this as completely catastrophic, although I think that the situation is far more problematic than it is in both Tunisia and Libya.

    Tipped and recced for the insight and analysis.

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Fri May 25, 2012 at 08:36:24 AM PDT

  •  Republished to Adalah. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    angry marmot, Brecht

    Some reactions:  Khairat el-Shater, the Muslim Brotherhood's first choice for candidate, is saying that he believes "conscripts were told to vote for Shafiq".  Hearing that from multiple sources.

    At Sabbahi's campaign headquarters, "anger, sadness, and chants against military rule".

    A young woman, in Cairo I think, is in the street shouting "What do we tell the martyrs?"

    Good question.

  •  The blame game begins: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken, downsouth

    Pro-revolution figures trade blame for Shafiq success (Egypt Independent)

    Ayman Nour, head of the liberal Ghad al-Thawra Party, held the revolutionary candidates responsible for Shafiq's strong position.

    “They put us in this trap. They didn’t collaborate with each other on a presidential team [so as not to split the vote]. If they had, one of them would have won from the first round,” Nour was quoted as saying according to privately-owned newspaper Youm7.

    The article goes on to cite one member of Jamaa al-Islamiya's Shura Council's perspective that the Copts are, at least in part, to blame. The media narrative was one of overwhelming Coptic support for Shafiq, although the Church as an institution took no official position. This is a potentially divisive (and dangerous) assignment of blame.

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Fri May 25, 2012 at 11:32:49 AM PDT

    •  its all so sad. what will happen, now? will the (0+ / 0-)

      people take to the streets, again?

      And, Ayman Nour's critique sounds realistic to me. Its a matter of growing pains for the new leftists. They didn't figure out to stay united for the second part of their revolution, which was at the ballot box.

      The whole thing seems tragic.

  •  Thanks AM. As often happens, DK members get news (0+ / 0-)

    before the MSM.

    Also, as elsewhere in the Mediterranean basin (Greece, Israel), recent elections seem to lead to a clusterfuck.

    In confusing times, the electorate is confused as well.

    Still beats a no-party dictatorship, any day.

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