Why are you a Democrat? Why do you support Obama's re-election? What would you tell someone who genuinely wants to know, someone you might not suspect would ask you such questions? |
Iowa is one of the 'must win' states for Obama this fall. The election will be extremely close. I believe each of us can play some role in helping decide the outcome. Huge amounts of money are pouring into our state from private secret donors. I am finding it harder to be hopeful. What can I do when the only influence I feel I have is my one vote and my ability to speak up?
Is there any point in my trying to do something about it?
Recently, David Simas came to Iowa to talk about messaging in the Democratic campaign. Simas is the Director of Opinion Research for the Obama campaign. What he said was sobering.
More below the squiggle.
The Numbers...
Don't think of this campaign as any thing like 2008. Think of it as another 2004. This is going to be one of the closest elections you can imagine? The deciding voters will number only a few thousand here in Iowa. Both Democratic and Republican camps are deeply entrenched. They will not be swayed. Their numbers are large and statistically equal.
Consider the standard bell curve from statistics. It displays a normal distribution of a large population over a spectrum of values. You've seen it before. You might have asked the teacher if the grades are on a 'curve'. That's the idea. There are a few with As and Fs on the tails of the curve. Most people get Cs in the central part.
Invert the curve. Label it with Democrats and Republicans. It tells a very different story in this 2012 election cycle. The tails of the inverted curve are now high values. They are the large numbers of voters in the two political camps who will not be swayed. Nothing you can tell them will change their minds. They are convinced the other side is wrong. Argument, logic and reason, civil discussion, etc, are all a waste of time on these voters. Their minds are made up.
There is a small group of voters in Iowa who are still undecided. They are that small circled group in the middle of the curve who make up only a few thousand voters. These voters are still thinking about the issues. There are important choices they still need to make. They want to know more than a TV ad will tell them. They want to know why it is important to their family that they vote Democratic or Republican. They are your quiet neighbors, co-workers, friends, and family members. They are still not sure what to do. They would like to hear from some people they respect. They want to know what issues will have a personal impact on them. That is how they will decide their vote.
These voters will decide whether Obama wins Iowa, and possibly his re-election.
Dennis, my cube mate at work, is about 40. He is conservative and religious, but not extreme about either. He doesn't talk much about religion or politics. From what he does say, I can tell he isn't happy with Romney. None of the other candidates impressed him during the primaries. Dennis is a reasonable man and in that middle ground. He is wondering what to do come November.
At a recent lunch hour, he and I and two other co-workers were sitting together talking about my recent meet-and-greet with the president when he visited the University of Iowa to talk about the student loans issue. I was excited. On other occasions, I have expressed support for policies of this administration and that I volunteer for the local OFA office. The other two co-workers got distracted and quietly talked about another topic. In the lull, Dennis asked "Why do you support the president and his policies?"
My Personal Story
I looked him in the eye and realized this was an opportunity to tell my personal story. My mind raced in those few seconds as I recalled the many things I have heard and rea and thought about. But, no one had asked me so directly. I didn't want to list a bunch of facts and slogans. I wanted this to be personal. He really did want to know. Here are a few of the points I made, trying to be conversational. I felt the pressure of the moment.
I told him I turned 65 last winter. I have paid into Social Security and Medicare for most of my life. I want the programs to be left alone. Don't make them into privatized programs. How awful that would have been for me during the recent economic crash if most of my contributions had disappeared. It was bad enough my IRAs and 401k had tanked.
I explained how the Affordable Care Act was helping our son remain on our insurance policy until he is 26 if he needs it. He is still in college and won't go on active duty until about a year from now.
During the years my wife worked her job at a major bank, she was never paid an equal pay for her equal work. The Lilly Ledbetter Act would help other women be protected from such discrimination. That includes my two daughters and three grand daughters and his three daughters. It was one of Obama's first official acts when he signed it. Democrats will keep that in place.
As a public school teacher for 38 years, I saw progress made in collective bargaining rights. Those rights are being taken away in many states. The Democrats want to maintain them. Would I like to go back to teaching with no bargaining rights? Absolutely not.
Knowing he and I are former science teachers, I stressed how this administration believes in science. It values the efforts made by scientists and researchers. It believes the future successes of our children rely on top quality education.
My final point was about my youngest brother. He is gay. He has been in a committed 'marriage' with his partner of 20 years. They still are unable to realize the same rights as the rest of the married population. The president's recent statement of support for marriage equality was a wonderful thing to hear. I want to help the president secure more equality for my brother. It is a matter of fairness.
Dennis was quiet. He listened carefully. Our lunch hour ended and we returned to our desks. One of these days, I plan to ask him if he has come closer to deciding who he will support in November. I hope our conversation has helped him lean more toward voting Democratic.
What about you? Have you had opportunity to talk with someone and relate your personal story? How did you handle it? Do you feel it made a difference? Is it something you can do?