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Leading Off:

MI-11: The news broke over the holiday weekend, so you may have missed it, but it's truly remarkable stuff: It looks like five-term GOP Rep. Thad McCotter failed to submit enough signatures to qualify for the ballot this year. If McCotter does indeed get booted (and it looks like he will), that would utterly up-end what was otherwise a largely uncompetitive race in this swingish district that Obama won 50-48. Fortunately, Democrats have a credible candidate in the form of physician Syed Taj (though there's a LaRouchie in the primary), while the only other Republican who filed is tea partier (and possible Paulist) Kerry Bentivolio. But a write-in campaign for the GOP nomination is possible for McCotter—or some other local Republican, something which is already under discussion. We'll be closely following this amazing story as it unfolds, so stayed tuned for further developments.

Senate:

IN-Sen: Rasmussen: Joe Donnelly (D): 42, Richard Mourdock (R): 42. Note: Rasmussen says that "this survey was conducted entirely online. Survey participants were selected at random from an panel provided by a third party."

Gubernatorial:

IL-Gov, IL-Sen: You may have seen that Patrick Fitzgerald, the longtime U.S. Attorney in the Chicago area, is stepping down from his post. Fitzgerald developed a reputation as an aggressive, non-partisan prosecutor, and that reputation is why he stayed on as USA under Obama even though he was originally an appointee of George W. Bush. That profile would have also made him an appealing candidate for statewide office, at least on paper, and given that his original patron was former GOP Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (no relation), it made sense to imagine that Patrick Fitzgerald might run as a Republican himself, if he were interested. But it's a moot point, because Fitzgerald says he has no interest in making any kind of bid, adding that "I'm not wired for political office." However, I'm sure local Republicans will try to quietly get him to change his mind, so you never know.

WI-Gov: Two new Democratic internal polls of the recall came out on Friday—well, one new and one new-ish. The DGA, via the Mellman Group, has Scott Walker up just 49-46 over Tom Barrett, which represents a tightening from 51-44 a week earlier. (That previous trendline is only now being disclosed.) Mellman basically argues, as others have done, that the race is getting closer because Dems are now on the airwaves in force.

Meanwhile, the Barrett campaign now looks like they're conducting a daily tracking poll with Garin-Hart-Yang. On Thursday, they released numbers from May 22 to 23 showing it a 50-48 race; on Friday, they added data from the 24th, and things have nudged even closer, to 49-48 Walker.

P.S. One related thing I've been wondering about is why we haven't seen a single poll from either the RGA or Walker's campaign this whole time.

House:

AZ-04: Here's the first of two mystery polls that only the Arizona Capitol Times seems to have the full details on. Republican Ron Gould has apparently put out an internal, but there's nothing on his website about it, except a reference to this post at the Madison Project, a conservative PAC. Again, there are almost no details, but the survey apparently shows Gould trailing Rep. Paul Gosar just 35-32 in the GOP primary. I'd really like to know more about this one.

AZ-09: This one is also a bit frustrating. According to a press release from Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona Capitol Times has gotten its hands on a poll which purportedly shows her leading the Democratic primary with 38%, while David Schapira is close at hand with 36%, and Andrei Cherny is a very distant third with a mere 8%. Unfortunately, there are no further details on the poll, like who conducted it, when it was in the field, what the methodology was, or who paid for it (though it may have been Schapira's). And while much of the content on the Capitol Times's website is paywalled, this story doesn't even appear to be on their site at all.

On a separate note, the Professional Firefighters of Arizona, a union which represents over 6,500 firefighters and EMS workers in the state, just endorsed Sinema, adding to the list of first-responder labor groups which have already given her their backing (mostly police unions).

CO-06: Amazing: New research shows there's apparently no cure for Coffman's Disease. Republican sophomore Mike Coffman penned an op-ed apologizing for going full birther just the other day, after he utterly humiliated himself by repeatedly refusing to answer a local TV news reporter's questions on why he went birther in the first place. But now? Get a load of this radio interview he just did:

HOST: You know how they say in Washington, a gaffe is when somebody tells the truth? I know you to be such a highly intelligent guy, such a disciplined guy. Were you just at that moment speaking what was in your heart and are you now feeling you need to walk it back for political reasons?

COFFMAN: To some extent that's true because I think that when Republicans are not talking about jobs and the economy, when we're not on message, I think the other side is winning. But let me put it in context. The context was at that event and other events I've been to, Republican events, people come up to me and say, "why aren't you taking on the president about him not being born in the United States? Why don't I hear anything from you about that?" It gets really frustrating. Look, I just think that's a horrible issue for Republicans. Every day we're talking about that is just a victory for the president. What I meant to say and said very poorly when I was there was that it doesn't matter whether he is or not, that's just not the issue.

Hint: Apologizing doesn't work if you later go and admit your apology is insincere. Medical science has proven, though, that this is a concept sufferers of Coffman's Disease are unable to grasp.

FL-09: Hrm. This backgrounder on the candidates running in Florida's new 9th Congressional District contains one very unexpected line: Reporter Kenric Ward says that conservative activist Todd Long "is leading the GOP field" "according to internal polls." Now, it's not out of the realm of possibility, given that Long has run in this area twice before (in the old 8th), nearly unseating ex-Rep. Rick Keller in the primary in 2008.

This would be good news for Democrat Alan Grayson if true, though, since Long is a decidedly flawed candidate, and since Republicans undoubtedly prefer Osceola County Commissioner John Quiñones. Quiñones, who is of Puerto Rican descent, could potentially offer some crossover appeal in the general election—a lot of Puerto Ricans live in the district. His problem, though, is that few of them vote in the Republican primary, so I wouldn't rule out the chance of a Long victory.

NJ-09: Bill Clinton's endorsed Bill Pascrell, he's recorded robocalls for Bill Pascrell, and now he's coming to down for Bill Pascrell. The Big Dog will visit the 9th District on June 1, just days ahead of Pascrell's primary with fellow Rep. Steve Rothman.

NY-01: Uh, wtf? George Demos abruptly announced on Friday that he's dropping out of the Republican primary in New York's 1st Congressional district, just a month before election day, citing the fact that his wedding is a week away. Seriously? I mean, how long has he known about this "issue"? Obviously a very long time: In the New York area, you generally have to schedule weddings way in advance since venues book up very fast. And yeah, okay, a federal judge did move the primary from September to June earlier this year, but come on. Either wait until an odd-numbered year to tie the knot, or just work around it. Again, this was a known issue! I've gotta believe there's something else going on here. But if there's one guy doing the horah, it's Demos's primary opponent, 2010 nominee Randy Altschuler, who now gets to dance his way directly to the general election fight against Dem Rep. Tim Bishop.

SC-07: It was the only possible conclusion: State Rep. Ted Vick has dropped out of the Democratic primary in South Carolina's 7th Congressional District. In case you're just catching up with the story now, late on Wednesday night, Vick was pulled over by police for speeding, who then, smelling alcohol, suspected him of driving while intoxicated. Vick refused a breathalyzer test and was arrested—and then was found to be carrying a gun with a long-expired permit, adding weapons charges to his rap sheet. On top of that, a 21-year-old woman was riding in the passenger seat and had been drinking with Vick prior to his arrest. In the wake of these events, his media consultant sent a letter to a TV station cancelling an ad buy and explaining that Vick is "ending his campaign."

One thing I was not aware of is that Vick was simultaneously running for re-election to the state House, something apparently permissible under South Carolina law. Remarkably, he's planning to continue with his legislative campaign. As for the congressional race, this was always going to be a long-shot district for Team Blue, but Democrats fortunately have an alternative in Preston Brittain, a local attorney who fundraised well in the most recent quarter. He'll have to contend with the flakey Gloria Tinubu, though, a former state representative from Georgia who quit her seat to move across state lines and run for Congress in the Palmetto State. Republicans are favored to win here but are currently dealing with an unsettled, multi-way primary of their own.

WA-01: Suzan DelBene hasn't previously delved into her own wallet in this cycle, but you knew it was coming at some point. She just self-funded to the tune of $300K, and more is probably coming (she put up $2.2 million of her own money in WA-08 in 2010); however, it's worth noting that she led the pack in Q1 fundraising without any self-funding, pulling in $341K from other people. Meanwhile, the King County Democrats, who've been dancing around an endorsement for months now, finally figured out what they're doing: Rather than go with DelBene or Darcy Burner, though, they gave their sole endorsement to ex-state Rep. Laura Ruderman, the only Dem candidate to have actually been elected to something in King County. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

June 5 Primaries: Pre-primary fundraising reports were due Thursday night, covering the period from April 1 through May 16, in all the states which have primaries on June 5: California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. We have all the House numbers for you at the link. A couple of standouts: GOP Rep. Steve King (IA-04) raised the most in this period, $363K. And in CA-52, Democrat Scott Peters plowed in a monster $1.25 million loan as he seeks to win a spot in the top-two primary. There's so much, much more at the link, though. Also, in MT-Sen, Dem Sen. Jon Tester outraised GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg $781K to $402K and has $4 mil on hand to Rehberg's $2.6 mil.

Media Watch:

MO-Sen: Roll Call says that the buy for Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill's new ad about Arlington National Cemetery is for $200K (lasting one week). That's pretty different than what The Hill reported, $352K over two weeks. But it's possible that report was referring to a broader booking for multiple ads.

And then there's also.... "John's for Jobs"—that's the awkward-sounding slogan that the Chamber of Commerce has decided to use (repeatedly) in their latest ad supporting Republican John Brunner in the Republican Senate primary. (David Nir & James L)

TX-Sen: Outside money continues to fall like rain in Texas. The Texas Conservatives Fund drops another $260K in TV buys against Ted Cruz (presumably to re-up this ad, though that's not certain), and Conservative Renewal PAC is placing another $180K to continue their cable TV assault against Cruz and Tom Leppert. Meanwhile, the Club for Growth is throwing another $117K behind their ad campaign against front-runner David Dewhurst.

And Mike Huckabee, no longer looking as svelte as he did during his failed presidential run four years ago, promises that David Dewhurst will "stay conservative" in a new ad for Dewhurst. (James L & David Nir)

UT-Sen: Republican Dan Liljenquist does a compare-and-contrast, attacking Sen. Orrin Hatch for his conservative apostasies (earmarking, etc.) and then promising he'll be different—including a claim that he'll eliminate pensions for member of Congress.


MT-Gov: Rick Hill fires back against Corey Stapleton's new negative ad, accusing him of slinging "false attacks" and making various promises about what a "strong conservative" Hill actually is. Stapleton is reportedly up with a six-figure buy, which is quite considerable for Montana, but there's no word on how much Hill is spending.

WI-Gov: Democrat Tom Barrett has a spot in which college-age kids implore viewers to vote in the recall. Because this ad is aimed at a younger demographic, it's not airing on TV but rather on online networks like Hulu. Barrett also has a new minute-long radio ad (yep, it's radio, despite the imagery at the YouTube link) that explains in detail what the "John Doe" scandal involving Scott Walker's aides is all about, and once again says that Walker himself needs to share his own emails with prosecutors so that we can know "the truth."

Meanwhile, the labor-backed group We Are Wisconsin has sent a takedown letter (PDF) to TV stations regarding this new RGA ad, saying it relies on phony job creation statistics ginned up by Walker in the face of terrible numbers from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and should be yanked off the air.

Finally, speaking of numbers, The Hotline has some great maps showing where and how much Republicans and Democrats have been spending on the airwaves throughout the state. The GOP has outspent Team Blue 3-to-1 overall, but Democrats have closed the gap in terms of current ad spending in recent days.


AZ-08: The NRCC is spending another $52K on "media" (which, I believe, includes the cost of production and the actual ad buys) opposing Democrat Ron Barber, and $15K to the Tarrance Group (a GOP polling outfit). Meanwhile, the Arizona Democratic Party is sending out a mailer that touts ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' endorsement of Barber. (James L)

CA-26: The holier-than-thou independents at icPurple are putting a paltry $21K behind their ad campaign in support of Republican-turned-Independent Linda Parks. The ad, in case you haven't seen, informs us that purple paint is better than blue or red paint. (James L)

CA-31: The National Association of Realtors continues their frenzied spending campaign in this district with another $85K in ad buys supporting GOP Rep. Gary Miller, who's still introducing himself to a district that doesn't overlap in any way with the one that he currently represents. The group also shelled out $8K to the Tarrance Group for polling expenses. (James L)

NM-01: EMILY's List sends out another $21K in mailers supporting Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. (James L)

OK-02: What starts out as a positive biographical spot from Republican Markwayne Mullin turns into a nihilistic rant about government: "Government's not the solution. Government is the problem. And the more they try to fix it, the worse they make it."

TX-16: In a wordless ad that requires viewers to read a whole bunch of text that appears on-screen, Beto O'Rourke attacks Rep. Silvestre Reyes, the man he's trying to unseat in the Democratic primary, for allegedly "championing" a "$200 million virtual border fence" whose contractor then went on to hire Reyes's three kids—and was later shut down by the feds for "failure to perform." I really think the lack of a voiceover narrator is a problem here, though.

Reyes also came out with an ad last week attacking O'Rourke's character, which makes me wonder if he's nervous about his primary. A pretty straight-up fact check in the El Paso Times (not at all a PolitiFact-style hatchet job) says that most of Reyes's charges are b.s. (O'Rourke's ad, meanwhile, gets a clean bill of health.)

TX-30: Friends United, a new PAC with one of the cheesier-sounding names in recent memory, is revving up an ad campaign against Democratic attorney Taj Clayton on behalf of incumbent Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D). The group, which lists D.C. lobbyist and ex-Johnson staffer Jennifer Stewart as its treasurer, spent $17K on mailers and $23K on radio ads attacking Clayton.

The Dallas Morning News has a story up about the mailers, but most of the text is unfortunately blocked behind a paywall. However, a photo of the mail piece is available for viewing. Among other things, it alleges that "a secret group of wealthy conservative Republicans in Texas and Tea Party Republicans in Washington is backing Clayton to do their bidding." It's possible the mailer (which makes some pretty ridiculous charges) is referring to the Campaign for Primary Accounability, but they haven't spent a dime on this race, though one media report mistakenly seemed to suggest they had. (James L & David Nir)


Travis County Precinct 2 Constable: Liberty for All, the Paulist SuperPAC funded by uber-wealthy 21 year-old college Republican John Ramsey, recently said that they were just getting warmed up after vaulting Thomas Massie to victory in last week's KY-04 Republican primary. And they weren't lying! But their latest target is pretty random: They're throwing their muscle behind Michael Cargill, a gay African-American Democrat who's mounting a primary challenge against incumbent Adan Ballesteros. LFA filed two expenditures in this race with the FEC: $15K for phonebanking against Ballesteros (whose name they misspell as "Ballasteros" on the report), and $20K for direct mail boosting Cargill.

Before we go any further, of course, it should probably be noted that, you know, it's not actually necessary to file independent expenditure reports for local-level races with the Federal Elections Commission. But, hey, I'm actually interested in seeing where Ramsey is spending his inherited wealth, so I'm not going to discourage them!

So why is this gang of youthful Paulists throwing their money behind a Democrat, and in a race way down in the weeds? The answer is totally unclear, but perhaps this has something to do with it: the Austin Chronicle says that Cargill, a gun store owner, is a different kind of Democrat—one who maintains a "strident opposition to gun control." (Cargill lobbied on behalf of the NRA for proposed legislation to overrule handgun bans on Texas college campuses.) Cargill's campaign style is being described as "bruising": Ballesteros even filed a defamation suit against Cargill in late April after he "tweet[ed] links to a smear website run by the gun-happy Texans for Accountable Gov­ern­ment, containing every rumor about the incumbent in the most salacious terms possible." Yeah, Cargill sounds like their type of Democrat, alright. (James L)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue May 29, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  McCotter (5+ / 0-)

    I guess he was too busy running for President?

    If a Dem gets elected, will he be like the Republican who briefly held a seat in Louisiana over William Jefferson?

    I recall when Tim Walz got elected in MN-01.  The Republican incumbent he defeated, Gil Gutknecht, was like a Garrison Keillor radio skit.  To prove how economical he was, not wasting campaign donors' money, he chose to get on the ballot by petition rather than paying the filing fee, and then didn't get enough signatures to qualify.  So then, he sued in court to get on the ballot, and the judge had mercy and put him on anyhow.  One can only assume that a good deal more money was spent on the court challenge than the filing fee would have cost.

    Grab all the joy you can. (exmearden 8/10/09)

    by Land of Enchantment on Tue May 29, 2012 at 05:27:30 AM PDT

  •  Not sure what to make of the Indiana (5+ / 0-)

    Senate polling, but I hope the trend of a tight race starts to tilt blue.

    Mourdock is bad news.  Pence is bad news.  There's a lot to distrust in the GOP ballot in Indiana.  I'm rooting hard for Joe Donnelly.  

    Smart move by Tom Barrett's campaign in Wisconsin to keep hitting Walker hard on the John Doe investigation.  The more people know about this, the more who might be inclined to think they shouldn't maybe vote for someone who may be about to be indicted.  

    •  Donnelly should probably do better than Obama (0+ / 0-)

      the question is by how much. If Obama's getting 46-47% of the vote, he needs to do about 3 points better to win.

      also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

      by demographicarmageddon on Tue May 29, 2012 at 06:17:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A Roll Call piece quoted an Indiana Dem... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        ...operative as saying Donnelly needs Obama to keep his own defeat in the state down to about 6 points for Donnelly to win.

        Personally I suspect while that's in the right ballpark of what Donnelly likely needs, that "6" figure is still largely arbitrary...Donnelly might have a shot even with worse Obama performance depending on the candidates and campaigns.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:58:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Colorado poll from Project New America?? (5+ / 0-)

    Obama 48  Romney 44.  Likely voters.

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue May 29, 2012 at 05:43:37 AM PDT

  •  The Democratic party should feel some (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Desert Rose, askew

    shame for leaving some seats uncontested.  That let's incumbents get into really bad habits. It also disses the voters.
    When some voters are sent the message that they're not worth representing, I'm not sure how those voters are supposed to respond with anything but disdain.

    People to Wall Street: "LET OUR MONEY GO"

    by hannah on Tue May 29, 2012 at 06:29:03 AM PDT

    •  You can't draft people for this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb, hannah

      part of the problem is that serving is public office is something normal decent people don't want to do these days...it requires running around constantly asking for money, loads of money, for one thing. Our big problem is that shamelessness is the primary prerequisite for public office, and Republicans are much more likely to fill that requirement.

      That said, I'm glad to see that we have some promising candidates for state and local office in my county...unfortunately they are up against not only a well-funded Republican machine but also a new round of monkeying with the voter lists by Rick Scott's Sec. of State.

      "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

      by Alice in Florida on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:37:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  THIS IS WHY YOU CONTEST EVERY SEAT (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    In every race down to the local state legislative level.

    You never know when someone is going to do something like this.

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Tue May 29, 2012 at 06:34:04 AM PDT

  •  OH-Init (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades

    SCOTOH (almost wrote OH SCOTUS) gives the green light to activists to gather signatures for pro-gay marriage amendment http://www.lgbtqnation.com/...

    Male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Kyoto-06 (Japan) in August

    by sapelcovits on Tue May 29, 2012 at 06:38:07 AM PDT

  •  CA: LA Times poll, Obama 56-37 (4+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue May 29, 2012 at 06:45:05 AM PDT

  •  re GOP Rep. Thad McCotter: Ron Howard said it best (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    in American Grafitti: Go kiss a duck, marblehead.

    Slow thinkers - keep right

    by Dave the Wave on Tue May 29, 2012 at 06:55:52 AM PDT

  •  IL 10: Schneider poll shows him tied with Dold (0+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue May 29, 2012 at 06:58:11 AM PDT

  •  NJ-07 (0+ / 0-)

    Leonard Lance up with an ad trying to protect his right flank from teabagger David Larsen. (There's also a radio ad which I don't have a link to called "Principled Conservative."

    Male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Kyoto-06 (Japan) in August

    by sapelcovits on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:08:04 AM PDT

  •  AZ (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NoMoJoe, KingofSpades

    Arizona Capital Times is a one men monopoly on state govt. reporting.  Howard Fischer has full access to legislators and keeps his news behind the paywall of his news service. The major newspapers in AZ all contract with him for their news on the legislature.  He leans right, of course. It's a racket.  Just one of many in crooked Sandland.

    Ron Gould is a high school graduate with a heating and cooling business.   Major Tea Party guy. He has a big "Don't Tread on Me" flag on his computer laptop, so when his picture is taken in the lege, it's prominently displayed. He's for guns everywhere, a birther and votes for all sorts of unconstitutional stuff, like denying citizenship to babies born here.  He wears a flat top.  It fits.

    Gosar is a dentist.  Also Tea Party, endorsed by Joe Arpaio and Sarah Palin last time around. He refused to debate the incumbent in 2010, whom he beat. (Ann Kirkpatrick.)

    They're both horrible, but this comment regarding their debate in the Mojave County News says it all:

    " Never before outside of the deepest darkest part of the South have two more ignorant, misinformed people sought the same elected office. If this mentality is the best the Arizona Republicans can come up with we are really in trouble. "

    Remember, you can't have crazy without az.

    by Desert Rose on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:09:59 AM PDT

  •  amazing rundown and incredible work (0+ / 0-)

    Thank you.

    Vick was pulled over by police for speeding, who then, smelling alcohol, suspected him of driving while intoxicated. Vick refused a breathalyzer test and was arrested—and then was found to be carrying a gun with a long-expired permit, adding weapons charges to his rap sheet.
    Unbelievable. Drunk driving and drunk gun carrying, and with an expired permit at that.
  •  WI-GOV (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HarlemUSA, askew, Julia Grey

    Regarding

    Meanwhile, the Barrett campaign now looks like they're conducting a daily tracking poll with Garin-Hart-Yang. On Thursday, they released numbers from May 22 to 23 showing it a 50-48 race; on Friday, they added data from the 24th, and things have nudged even closer, to 49-48 Walker.

    P.S. One related thing I've been wondering about is why we haven't seen a single poll from either the RGA or Walker's campaign this whole time.

    Walker and the RGA don't have to do anything.  Instead the media -- MSNBC's Chuck Todd -- is doing it for them.

    This morning, Todd was touting polls that showed Walker up from 3 to 8 points.  And who did the Chuckster choose to have on to discuss this with?  VA Gov Bob McDonnell, the head of the RGA.

    Todd's theme is that everyone has "forgotten" the outrage from a year ago, and that this is just another "economy election" -- and Walker's "reforms" have worked.

    With "friends" like these, who needs enemies?

    We must drive the special interests out of politics.… There can be no effective control of corporations while their political activity remains. To put an end to it will neither be a short not an easy task, but it can be done. -- Teddy Roosevelt

    by NoMoJoe on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:14:39 AM PDT

    •  Is this equatable to NV-Sen in 2010? (0+ / 0-)

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:42:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Let's hope not, because if so (0+ / 0-)

        Walker is Harry Reid in this analogy.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Barrett/Mitchell on June 5th, 2012!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue May 29, 2012 at 08:43:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Public polling has favored Walker by a large (0+ / 0-)

          margin. Barrett's polling has shown a much closer race. In that analogy Barrett is clearly Harry Reid. Unless of course his polling is wrong, but we won't know until election day. I'm pretty sure that it is closer to reality then the public polling though.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 29, 2012 at 08:53:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That kind of coverage is WAY beneath Chuck Todd, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      ... I hope, in the months to come. If it isn't, he'll lose whatever reputation he gained in 2008 as a fair and good analyst and politics-watcher.

      Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

      by TRPChicago on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:51:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Whining about Chuck Todd speaks poorly of the left (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib

        First, on the merits, Todd and his team are eminently fair to liberals and Democrats in their political coverage.  

        Second, it reflects the left's own deep insecurity to complain about the media baselessly like this.  There are plenty of instances of the media being unfair to the truth in instances when the clear truth is with the left, but Chuck Todd's coverage of the Wisconsin recall is not among them.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue May 29, 2012 at 08:41:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's been a while since State Senate recalls... (0+ / 0-)

      ...have been polled. The only polls I've seen were the PPP polls that were released a couple of weeks ago. I have a feeling all four of those races (SD-13, SD-21, SD-23, and SD-29) have tightened up since PPP polled those races. I have a feeling that John Lehman, who was down by 2 points in the PPP SD-21 poll, might actually be leading now, given the fact that a pro-Wanggaard front group sent campaign mailers attacking Lehman for being soft on crime in an apparent last-ditch attempt to turn voters against Lehman.

    •  Forget Todd, cheeseheads! (0+ / 0-)

      What are you hearing on the ground? Is the race tightening and is Barrett getting a last minute surge?

      Would Obama and Slick Willie showing up help his cause?

  •  AZ 8: Barber continues to make an ass of himself (0+ / 0-)

    Won't commit to voting for Pelosi.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:26:37 AM PDT

  •  WI-Gov: Barrett's focus on getting out (6+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:29:48 AM PDT

  •  Aggressive Non-Partisan Non-Prosecutor (0+ / 0-)
    Fitzgerald developed a reputation as an aggressive, non-partisan prosecutor, and that reputation is why he stayed on as USA under Obama even though he was originally an appointee of George W. Bush.

    We got to know Fitzgerald when he "prosecuted" the Valerie Plame CIA agent outing. Plame was a secret agent stopping Iraq from getting WMD. Bush/Cheney outed her to interfere with her husband, the former US ambassador to Iraq who helped stop Iraq from getting WMD, when the husband exposed Bush/Cheney's "Niger yellowcake" document as a fraud lying us into war with Iraq.

    Fitzgerald did convict Cheney's Chief of Staff, "Scooter" Libby, for interfering with the investigation (Bush pardoned him and Republicans paid his fines/bills). Fitzgerald failed to convict anyone else of anything else. Not even Karl Rove, who lied to the grand jury, but who was not even sworn in other lying testimony.

    Many of us waited in vain in 2003 for a "Fitzmas" that never came. No wonder Obama kept him.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:29:57 AM PDT

    •  Is it possible he'd vet well enough as a Democrat? (0+ / 0-)

      This is an honest man.

      Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

      by TRPChicago on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:57:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Depends on his stances on social and fiscal issues (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TRPChicago

        Indeed, he is an honest man, to say the least.

        I don't think he'd make it out of a Republican primary for statewide office, though. He'd either have to be unopposed in the Republican primary (very little chance of that in Illinois), or face several teabaggers in the Republican primary in order to split the tea party vote several ways.

        He'd probably be better off running as an independent.

      •  Honest? (0+ / 0-)

        How do you know he's honest?

        I just recapped how he got practically nothing out of a very serious investigation in which it's clear that several very powerful and bad people got away with serious crimes. Which makes me think he's dishonest.

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Tue May 29, 2012 at 02:32:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Cite it to me, Doc, if you would. I missed it. (0+ / 0-)

          If you mean your statement, "Fitzgerald failed to convict anyone else of anything else," you'll have to remind me who else and what else was on the table.

          Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

          by TRPChicago on Tue May 29, 2012 at 05:07:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Karl Rove Was Within Reach (0+ / 0-)

            The Wikipedia article about Fitzgerald's investigation of the Valerie Plame outing scratches the surface. You can start there.

            Rove lied to the grand jury, but wasn't under oath. Which should never happen. Cheney ordered the leak, and so much more connected to it. The entire Bush cabal was on the table, since Rove was just helping obstruct justice that would have convicted these sickos of treason. Any conviction would have pressured even Pelosi to impeach. To say nothing of the simple justice of the truth getting out about the lengths they went to lie us into war.

            These people tortured random people for years into Vietcong style "confessions" used as lies to send us to war. Fitzgerald got only Libby, who got pardoned, for a copout obstruction charge that meant no testimony or evidence would go any further.

            I'll point out that Woodward of Watergate fame was a Republican ex-Marine picked by the Republican #2 at the FBI to leak Watergate. And the big fish there all got away, too. Fitzgerald is a Republican who let the most flagrant crime go unpunished. "Dishonest" is a very polite word for these Republican gangsters.

            "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

            by DocGonzo on Tue May 29, 2012 at 08:10:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I take your point, but "cabal" isn't prosecutable. (0+ / 0-)

              The Vice President might have "ordered the leak" but somehow I doubt he used such prosecutable words. With his chief of staff, he wouldn't need to. And, in prosecutions, body language and shared eye rolling probably wouldn't get even a conscientious jury to find a sitting vice president guilty of anything but being a very bad person. (Which I readily concede is true in Dick Cheney's case.) Other aspects of his career may be prosecutable but at that level of government with the great tolerance we have for judgment-or-what-passes-for-it, that's unlikely. Sex stuff can get you impeached, but intelligence manipulation and crazed war frenzy, not. Too bad the punishment doesn't fit the offense.

              Prosecutors try to go with winners. Fitzgerald went forth with the case he had. Remember, Scooter was not found guilty of the leak, but "only" perjury and obstruction. As for Rove, he gave extraordinarily artful grand jury testimony. Would Scooter have dropped the dime on him? If not, who would? Enough to get him? For what? For better and worse, prosecutions involve judgment calls.

              Now, all that said, it may be that Fitzgerald was chosen artfully - an able and dogged guy with a good reputation (and not a florid Republican) who Republicans could count on to stay within the lines.

              Which he's done in the Northern District of Illinois on the most sensitive political corruption cases against leaders of both parties. (Well, OK, Blago was hardly a "leader" even though he was governor.) We have been lucky in Chicago to have a long line of Federal DA's of both parties who were good at their jobs and played it as straight as one has any right to expect.

              Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

              by TRPChicago on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:16:53 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  North Carolina District 5 - Foxx Vulnerable (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, DownstateDemocrat

    How about Daily Kos giving us a hand down here in trying to get rid of Virginia Foxx. Her district was redrawn and has gone from 15% safe to 6% safe and we have a fantastic candidate in Elisabeth Motsinger. We have a real chance to win this if we could get some fund raising help and some promotion on places like Daily Kos. You want to elect better Democrats? Well here is a fantastic one. Give us some help.

    "A dreamer is one who can only find his way by moonlight, and his punishment is that he sees the dawn before the rest of the world." Oscar Wilde

    by michelewln on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:54:59 AM PDT

  •  Thank you President Obama! (10+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:55:42 AM PDT

  •  WI-Gov: Walker criminal corruption investigation? (0+ / 0-)

    I just got an email from the Barrett campaign citing a Milwaukee Journal investigative report that Walker may be involved in criminal activity perpetrated by his aides. The email included the following:

    Here's what we already know about the case: Prosecutors have charged six of Walker's closest aides and associates with 15 felonies and 3 misdemeanors for criminal activity that includes the embezzlement of charitable funds intended for the families of soldiers killed in action, child sex enticement, secret email networks, illegal campaign contributions and the abuse of taxpayer resources.

    Now reports have confirmed that prosecutors are looking into evidence that may implicate Scott Walker directly, as well as yet another of his aides, in an attempted bid rigging scheme to illegally reward campaign cronies at taxpayer expense.

    Of course this is part of a request for money to run ads, but does anyone from Wisconsin know how real this is? It looks like the first paragraph is just there to grab attention, as the only thing Walker may be actually tied to is the bid-rigging, which is kind of standard practice for Republicans...I don't know if people in Wisconsin care about that stuff, it's pretty much accepted here.

    "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

    by Alice in Florida on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:55:48 AM PDT

    •  It's pretty real. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Nothing is moving forward until after the recall. So the voters won't know what his exact role was in this crime.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 29, 2012 at 07:57:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  David you need to add "WARNING DKE Rules Apply" (0+ / 0-)

    To your front page DKOS posts.  I got a whole bunch of HR's  for not following DKE rules when I replied to your front page DKOS post about the Clackamas race and applying that lesson to

    Those HR'ing claimed they were doing it because people cannot discuss "policy" in the DKE section.  I think they were being dishonest and hypocritical and were HR'ing because they disagreed with my opinions in the message but they did claim they were HR'ing because DKE had rules about no policy discussion even though it was posted on DKOS.

    A warning about what not to discuss in replying to your DKE reposts on DKOS front page would seem necessary.

  •  Patrick Fitzgerald (0+ / 0-)

    Fitzgerald stands no chance in a GOP primary for statewide office in Illinois...he'll probably be teabagged by Bill Brady, Scott Eisenhauer, or some other nutcase.

  •  PPP MI: Obam +14 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, bythesea, supercereal, bumiputera

    Winning whites, crushing with indies, record high approvals:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

  •  IL 12 (0+ / 0-)

    Harriman has pulled out as the Democratic candidate for IL 12 in race against Republican Jason Plummer. He states his reasons are health reasons.  This is the open seat resulting from Jerry Costello's decision not to run for re-election. Early speculation is on either Jerry Costello, Jr. or Bradley Phelps running.

  •  Needs info on CA32 (0+ / 0-)

    My sister lives in LA, and has just found out that she has been redistricted from CA27(Chu), to CA32. A rep. from the campaign of someone with a Hispanic name called, she did not entertain the calller because she thought he was running against Chu. Instead of explaining to her that she was now in a new district, the person hung up. My sister would like to have info on the people running in the Dem. primary so that she can decide who to vote for; there are three voters in her household.

    Thanks.

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